Jonathan Lee

@lee-cyclone.bsky.social

32 Followers 96 Following

Atmospheric science PhD student at NYU | Cornell ‘25

Observed Changes in the Frequency and Severity of Heavy Precipitation Events. In the Northeast, total precipitation on the heaviest 1% of days has increased ~60% in the past few decades.
6 hour loop of radar precipitation over NYC and Long Island area. A persistent area of heavy rain is noted just offshore, a few miles south of Queens.
Map of past 24 h rainfall in NYC and Long Island area. Many areas got 2” of rain with a spot just offshore getting up to 8”.
upper 70s in northwest NY, otherwise widespread 60s to low 70s. NYC and LI 50s to mid 60s.
Apr 1: temperatures in mid 30s to mid 40s in northern half of the state, and mostly 60s and 70s downstate (lower Hudson Valley and NYC)
A forecast from Apple Weather showing snow next Thursday to Saturday, despite mild temperatures (37/46, 42/51, 43/61 F).
Above normal temperatures likely for the southern tier of the US, below normal likely in the Northern Plains and Northern Rockies, equal chances elsewhere.
Phil saw his shadow 108 times (“more winter”), no shadow 21 times (“early spring”, and no record was made 10 times (since 1887). But he has only been right 30% of the time in the past 10 years.
Total snowfall (arbitrary units) as a function of standard deviation and mean temperature
Graph of intensity weighted snowfall frequency vs temperature. Total change in snowfall is -0.92%, with loss from less cold -6.47% and gain from more moisture +5.54% (amounts may not add up exactly due to rounding error) for kappa = 1.07, or 7% moisture increase per degree
“Predicting Weather” exhibit at NCAR. Models are used to predict weather in the near future. Drawing on information about current weather, and applying what we know about how the atmosphere works, weather models predict what will most likely happen. For example, while we know the temperature now, a model is programmed to consider and account for all the things that will affect temperature in a few hours to a few days. Models are used to explore and experiment. What would happen if a hurricane moved over warmer ocean water? What would happen if a cold front moved quickly into a warm front? Looking at questions like these, scientists can use a weather model to test how the atmosphere would react under hypothetical conditions. The same weather events happen in the real world too, but in a model scientists can experiment with the weather. They can also run the model many times to see what factors affect the forecast and to determine its accuracy. / Weather forecasts have improved over the last 50 yecrs, largely as a result of improving weather models. How accurate can forecasts become? NGAR scientists improve forecasts by developing new models that better describe the real atmosphere. Increasing computing power mokes models more detailed and more accurate. Finally, many researchers are creating new ways to bring data from satellitos, radars other observing systems into models. This helps give the mode's a better "head start" to predict future weather. NCAR scientists work with scientists all over the world to develop and improve the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). This is a freely available, widely used forecasting tool, Millions of people worldwide rely on weather forecasts developed using the WRF model.
An interactive exhibit featuring a “tornado” in the form of a condensation funnel. Putting a hand through the vortex “kills” the circulation.
The front entrance of the sandstone colored NCAR building, with the words “National Center for Atmospheric Research / Sponsored by the National Science Foundation”.