Lightbucket

@lightbucket.bsky.social

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20 years in academic physics, then 20 years running a physics-based tech company, now drifting towards semi-retirement. Looking at: decarbonisation; energy; Russia's war in Ukraine. Blog on Wordpress: https://lightbucket.wordpress.com/

From: Osborne Clarke, 2nd July 2026 NESO issues first-ever summer electricity margin notice The National Energy System Operator (NESO) has confirmed that an electricity margin notice (EMN) was issued on 23 June. An EMN is an operational tool available to NESO that notifies the market of any additional generation required due to an anticipated shortfall within a specified period. Its purpose is to encourage generators to make further capacity available, where possible, during that period. Historically, these notices have been used mainly during winter demand peaks. This is the first EMN issued by NESO since January 2025 and the first ever issued in the summer period. The notice was withdrawn on the afternoon of 24 June, once NESO had recovered the margin for the period. NESO said that it was the result of extremely high temperatures driving increased electricity demand at a time when wind and gas generation were anticipated to be at a much lower level than usual.
A graph of System LCOE for wind power, plotting final electricity share of wind against generation costs and integration costs. At 40% wind penetration, the generation costs are €60/MWh, and the integration costs are €60/MWh. Source: System LCOE: What are the costs of variable renewables? F. Ueckerdt et al., Energy, V. 63, 15 December 2013, Pages 61-75
A graph showing the cost of firming intermittency. It plots resource penetration versus levelized firming cost for solar PV and wind power, for six US grid operators. Data from Lazard's LCOE+ analysis, 2026 edition, for the grid operators MISO, CAISO, SPP, PJM ERCOT and NYISO.
An aerial photo of the Civaux nuclear power plant, showing the location of the dry air coolers. Photo: Wikipedia
A chart showing production losses of nuclear electricity in France for the years 2000-Aug. 2022, by power plant, for losses attributed to high temperatures and flow constraints in rivers. All the production losses are attributed to high temperatures, except Chooz, whose losses are wholly due to flow constraints. Nuclear power plants and their production losses, 2000 - Aug. 2022, in GWh: Belleville: 0.15 GWh Blayais: 2135 GWh Bugey: 4394 GWh Cattenom: 0 GWh Chinon: 32 GWh Chooz: 5644 GWh Civaux: 0.027 GWh Cruas: 8.6 GWh Dampierre: 113 GWh Fessenheim: 294 GWh Flamanville: 9.5 GWh Golfech: 2116 GWh Gravelines: 0.49 GWh Nogent: 0 GWh Paluel: 0 GWh Penly: 0 GWh St.-Alban: 5047 GWh Saint Laurent: 0 GWh Tricastin: 4272 GWh Source: Cour des comptes, March 2023
A chart showing the share of electricity generation from nuclear power for the five countries with the highest nuclear share, and Britain. France and Slovakia have the highest nuclear shares. Source: Ember Electricity Data Explorer
Two charts showing the hourly electricity price and electricity mix for Germany over three days for June 22-25 2026. The price hit a record high at 18:45 (UTC) on June 23, 2026, and went higher still at the same time on June 24. Source: Electricity Maps
A chart showing the annual gas consumption of the four EU nations with the highest gas consumption, from 2014 to 2025. Germany has the highest gas consumption, then Italy, France, and Spain. Source: Eurostat, JRC EU security of supply dashboard
A chart showing the change in Germany's electricity sources between 2024 and 2025. The data show public electricity generation (i.e grid feed-in). Lignite: Down 3.9 TWh Hard coal: Up 2.9 TWh Gas: up 8.8 TWh Other conventional: Down 1.2 TWh Other renewables: Down 6.0 TWh Wind: Down 4.3 TWh Solar: Up 10.8 TWh Data: Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE, 2026
A chart showing the Low Carbon Contracts Company's forecast average CfD strike price, and the DESNZ forecast electricity wholesale price, for the years from 2025/26 to 2040/41. Strike prices are averaged over all technologies and all Allocation Rounds from pre-AR1 to AR6. CfD strike prices are inflation-linked to the CPI index, but are shown here in constant 2025 prices. The DESNZ forecast wholesale price is £60.16/MWh in 2035/36, rising to £74.25/MWh in 2040/41. Source: LCCC Scheme Dashboards, CfD Portfolio Forecast
A chart showing the Low Carbon Contracts Company's forecast average CfD strike price, and the DESNZ forecast electricity wholesale price, for the years from 2025/26 to 2040/41. Strike prices are averaged over all technologies and all Allocation Rounds from pre-AR1 to AR6. CfD strike prices are inflation-linked to the CPI index, but are shown here in constant 2025 prices. The DESNZ forecast wholesale price is £60.16/MWh in 2035/36, rising to £74.25/MWh in 2040/41. Source: LCCC Scheme Dashboards, CfD Portfolio Forecast
Contracts for Difference for UK Offshore Wind, showing the strike price and the Administrative Strike Price for each Allocation Round (in 2024 prices). Strike prices range from £167.05 per megawatt-hour in the first Allocation Round to £91.20 per megawatt-hour in the seventh Allocation Round. The Administrative Strike Price for the eighth Allocation Round is £113 per megawatt-hour.
THE CONTRACTS FOR DIFFERENCE (ALLOCATION) REGULATIONS 2014 PRICE AND POT NOTICE UK Government, 6 July 2026 Table 2: AR8 Administrative Strike Prices in 2024 prices (£/MWh) Technology Type and ASP in 2024 prices AR8 (as applicable in allocation) Advanced Conversion Technology: £307/MWh Anaerobic Digestion (>5MW): £195/MWh Dedicated Biomass with CHP: £238/MWh Energy from Waste with CHP: £287/MWh Floating Offshore Wind: £271/MWh Geothermal: £219/MWh Hydro (>5MW and <50MW): £168/MWh Landfill Gas: £94/MWh Offshore Wind: £113/MWh Onshore Wind (>5MW): £92/MWh Other Deepwater Offshore Wind: £271/MWh Remote Island Wind (>5MW): £92/MWh Sewage Gas: £228/MWh Solar PV (>5MW): £75/MWh Tidal Stream: £371/MWh Wave: £386/MWh
A chart showing daily average wind power in the EU from 24 May 2026 to 5 July 2026, and daily average nuclear power for the EU and for France over the same period, with the heat wave from 16 June marked. There is a 39% drop in average wind power during the heat wave, and a 1% drop in French nuclear output over the same period. Data: Energy Charts, Fraunhofer ISE
A chart showing daily average wind power in the EU from 24 May 2026 to 5 July 2026, with the heat wave from 16 June marked. There is a 39% drop in average wind power during the heat wave. Data: Energy Charts, Fraunhofer ISE
Changes in Russia's key interest rate, to 19 June 2026: Sep. 16 2022: 7.5% Jul. 21 2023: 8.5% Aug. 15 2023 12% Sep. 15 2023: 13% Oct. 27 2023: 15% Dec. 15 2023: 16% Jul. 26 2024: 18% Sep. 13 2024: 19% Oct. 25 2024: 21% Jun. 06 2025: 20% Jul. 25 2025: 18% Sep. 12 2025: 17% Oct. 24 2025: 16.5% Dec. 19 2025: 16% Feb. 13 2026: 15.5% Mar. 20 2026: 15.0% Apr. 24 2026: 14.5% Jun. 19 2026: 14.25% Source: tradingeconomics.com | Central Bank of Russia.
A chart showing the liquid assets of the Russian National Welfare Fund, as a percentage of GDP, by half-year, from H2 2021 to H1 2026. The liquid assets consist of currency and gold. Liquid assets at the end of H2 2021 were 7.3% of GDP. Liquid assets at the end of H1 2026 were 1.5% of GDP. Data: prune602.bsky.social
A chart showing France's electricity exports and imports in 15 minute intervals on Saturday 4 July 2026. Peak exports were at 6 pm, with 4028 MW exports to Britain, 1389 MW to Spain, 4070 MW to Italy, 1927 MW to Switzerland and 5973MW to Germany/Belgium Source: RTE, éCO2mix
THE CONTRACTS FOR DIFFERENCE (ALLOCATION) REGULATIONS 2014 EXEMPTIONS REQUEST NOTICE UK Government, 8 May 2026 The types of eligible generator and eligible generating station to which the prospective application window is likely to apply are shown in the table below, together with the potential delivery years. Technology: Delivery years Advanced Conversion Technology: 2029/30 & 2030/31 Anaerobic Digestion (>5MW): 2029/30 & 2030/31 Dedicated Biomass with CHP: 2029/30 & 2030/31 Energy from Waste with CHP: 2028/29 & 2030/31 Floating Offshore Wind: 2029/30 & 2030/31 Geothermal: 2029/30 & 2030/31 Hydro (>5MW and <50MW): 2028/29 & 2029/30 Landfill Gas: 2028/29 & 2029/30 Offshore wind: 2029/30, 2030/31 & 2031/32 Onshore Wind: (>5MW) 2028/29, 2029/30 & 2030/31 Remote Island Wind: (>5MW) 2028/29 & 2029/30 Sewage Gas: 2028/29 & 2029/30 Solar PV: (>5MW) 2028/29, 2029/30 & 2030/31 Tidal stream: 2029/30 & 2030/31 Wave: 2029/30 & 2030/31
A chart showing daily average wind power in the EU from 24 May 2026 to 2 July 2026, with the heat wave from 16 June marked. There is a 36% drop in average wind power during the heat wave. Data: Energy Charts, Fraunhofer ISE
A chart showing cross border electricity trading for the five largest European economies, France, Spain, Germany, UK (excl. NI) and Italy, by month from January 2025 to June 2026. France's electricity exports have reached a record high. Data source: Fraunhofer ISE
A chart showing daily cross border electricity trading over 20 days from 11 June 2026 to 30 June 2026, for France, Spain, UK, Italy and Germany. France has been the largest exporter throughout. Source: Fraunhofer ISE
A chart showing daily average wind power in the EU from 24 May 2026 to 29 June 2026, with the heat wave from 16 June marked. There is a 36% drop in average wind power during the heat wave. Data: Energy Charts, Fraunhofer ISE
A graph showing production losses of nuclear electricity in France for the years 2000-Aug. 2022, for losses attributed to high temperatures and flow constraints in rivers. Year and lost production in GWh 2000: 1075.855 GWh 2001: 219.975 GWh 2002: 71.289 GWh 2003: 6318.255 GWh 2004: 931.802 GWh 2005: 2690.211 GWh 2006: 2139.515 GWh 2007: 2.915 GWh 2008: 80.919 GWh 2009: 86.329 GWh 2010: 126.401 GWh 2011: 743.728 GWh 2012: 177.191 GWh 2013: 170.113 GWh 2014: 79.173 GWh 2015: 665.068 GWh 2016: 53.81 GWh 2017: 643.803 GWh 2018: 2734.391 GWh 2019: 1448.293 GWh 2020: 3101.735 GWh 2021: 4.95 GWh 2022: 501.351 GWh Source: Cour des comptes, March 2023
A map of Britain showing the locations of the three proposed pumped storage hydro projects given a "Minded-to" decision by Ofgem in June 2026, along with all 14 potential pumped storage hydro projects under consideration. The "Minded-to" projects are: Coire Glas Earba Loch Kemp Map: British Hydro Association
Table 1: Minded-to decisions for Long Duration Electricity Storage Ofgem's list of 16 LDES projects, including 3 pumped storage hydro projects. Source: Consultation Window 1: Minded-to decisions – Long Duration Electricity Storage Ofgem, 26 June 2026
A chart showing Pakistan's electricity demand from FY15 to FY25. Pakistan's electricity demand surged by 21% in the last two years, met entirely by distributed solar. Source: Ember
A chart showing the fraction of self-consumed solar PV in Australia and Germany for each year from 2010 to 2025. Australia started with a very high fraction of self-consumed solar PV, which then fell, and Germany started with a low fraction of self-consumed solar PV, which then rose. Sources: Fraunhofer ISE, Open Electricity
A chart showing Australia's solar PV generation for each year from 2010 to 2025, (for all Australian regions), broken down into the utility PV part and the rooftop PV part. Rooftop solar got going earlier, and utility solar is now gaining. Source: Open Electricity
A chart showing the day-ahead electricity prices for 28 June 2026 in 15 minute intervals for France and Germany, in CEST time. The prices in both France and Germany are €0/MWh between 10:00 and 16:00 CEST. Source: Nord Pool
A map of Britain showing the locations of the three proposed pumped storage hydro projects given a "Minded-to Decision" by Ofgem in June 2026. They are: Coire Glas Earba Loch Kemp The eleven possible pumped storage hydro projects are: 1. Balliemeanoch 2. Coire Glas 3. Cruachan Expansion 4. Earba 5. Fearna 6. Glenmuckloch 7. Glen Earrach 8. Loch Kemp Storage 9. Loch na Cathrach 10. Moel Tryfan 11. Glyn Rhonwy Map: British Hydro Association
My result on the BritMonkey 202s political compass test. My closest match is Emmanuel Macron.
A chart showing daily cross border electricity trading over two weeks from 12 June 2026 to 25 June 2026, for France, Spain, UK, Italy and Germany. Source: Fraunhofer ISE
A graph showing production losses of nuclear electricity in France for the years 2000-Aug. 2022, for losses attributed to high temperatures and flow constraints in rivers. Year and lost production in GWh 2000: 1075.855 GWh 2001: 219.975 GWh 2002: 71.289 GWh 2003: 6318.255 GWh 2004: 931.802 GWh 2005: 2690.211 GWh 2006: 2139.515 GWh 2007: 2.915 GWh 2008: 80.919 GWh 2009: 86.329 GWh 2010: 126.401 GWh 2011: 743.728 GWh 2012: 177.191 GWh 2013: 170.113 GWh 2014: 79.173 GWh 2015: 665.068 GWh 2016: 53.81 GWh 2017: 643.803 GWh 2018: 2734.391 GWh 2019: 1448.293 GWh 2020: 3101.735 GWh 2021: 4.95 GWh 2022: 501.351 GWh Source: Cour des comptes, March 2023
Two charts showing the hourly electricity price and electricity mix for Germany over three days for June 22-25 2026. The price hit a record high at 18:45 (UTC) on June 23, 2026, and went higher still at the same time on June 24. Source: Electricity Maps
So far in 2026, Britain has wasted £825,794,989 switching off wind turbines and paying gas plants to switch on. The total cost for all of 2025 was £1,467,023,332. Hooray! No wind was wasted on 22nd June. Source: Wasted Wind
Two charts showing Germany's day-ahead electricity price and electricity mix in 15 minute intervals over 24 hours of 23-24 June 2026. The electricity price peaked in the 7:45-8:00pm time interval. Source: Electricity Maps
A chart showing France's electricity exports and imports in 15 minute intervals on 23 June 2026. Peak exports were at 4am, with 2960MW exports to Britain, 1300MW to Spain, 3885MW to Italy, 1857MW to Switzerland and 2844MW to Germany/Belgium Source: RTE, éCO2mix
A map showing cross-border electricity trading in Europe on 23 June 2026. The largest exporter was France, with 146.7GWh exports, the largest importer was Germany, with 149.7GWh imports. Source: Energy-Charts, Fraunhofer ISE
A graph showing production losses of nuclear electricity in France for the years 2000-Aug. 2022, for losses attributed to high temperatures and flow constraints in rivers. Year and lost production in GWh 2000: 1075.855 GWh 2001: 219.975 GWh 2002: 71.289 GWh 2003: 6318.255 GWh 2004: 931.802 GWh 2005: 2690.211 GWh 2006: 2139.515 GWh 2007: 2.915 GWh 2008: 80.919 GWh 2009: 86.329 GWh 2010: 126.401 GWh 2011: 743.728 GWh 2012: 177.191 GWh 2013: 170.113 GWh 2014: 79.173 GWh 2015: 665.068 GWh 2016: 53.81 GWh 2017: 643.803 GWh 2018: 2734.391 GWh 2019: 1448.293 GWh 2020: 3101.735 GWh 2021: 4.95 GWh 2022: 501.351 GWh Source: Cour des comptes, March 2023
A chart showing production losses of nuclear electricity in France for the years 2000-Aug. 2022, by power plant, for losses attributed to high temperatures and flow constraints in rivers. All the production losses are attributed to high temperatures, except Chooz, whose losses are wholly due to flow constraints. Nuclear power plants and their production losses, 2000 - Aug. 2022, in GWh: Belleville: 0.15 GWh Blayais: 2135 GWh Bugey: 4394 GWh Cattenom: 0 GWh Chinon: 32 GWh Chooz: 5644 GWh Civaux: 0.027 GWh Cruas: 8.6 GWh Dampierre: 113 GWh Fessenheim: 294 GWh Flamanville: 9.5 GWh Golfech: 2116 GWh Gravelines: 0.49 GWh Nogent: 0 GWh Paluel: 0 GWh Penly: 0 GWh St.-Alban: 5047 GWh Saint Laurent: 0 GWh Tricastin: 4272 GWh Source: Cour des comptes, March 2023
A chart showing day-ahead spot electricity prices for 24 June 2026, in 15 minute intervals, for France, Germany, Belgium and Netherlands. The peak prices are: France: €433.42/MWh Germany: €747.10/MWh Netherlands: €902.47/MWh Belgium: €1038.25/MWh Source: Nord Pool day-ahead prices.
A chart showing day-ahead spot electricity prices for France and Germany on 1 May 2026 (left) and 23 June 2026 (right) Spot prices in Germany fell to the price floor at -€499.99/MWh on 1 May and peaked at €615.02/MWh on 23 June. Source: Nord Pool day-ahead prices.
A chart showing day-ahead spot electricity prices for 23 June 2026, for France and Germany. Spot prices in Germany rise to €615.02/MWh in the late evening, France's spot prices peak at €278.10/MWh. Source: Nord Pool day-ahead prices.
A chart showing the marginal cost of decarbonizing the US power grid. The marginal cost rises sharply for CO2 reductions of more than 90% from 2005 levels. Source: Mai et al. 2022. "Gettting to 100%: Six strategies for the challenging last 10%", NREL; Liebreich Associates. Updated analysis by Cole et al. 2021.
Germany’s Planned LNG Infrastructure: A map showing the locations of the five floating storage regasification units (FSRU) in Germany, at Mukran Lubmin Wilhelmshaven Stade Brunsbuettel Source: European Gas Hub
Germany Goes On LNG Import Terminal Building Spree By Irina Slav - Nov 19, 2025 To date, Germany has five LNG import terminals featuring floating storage and regasification units. The import terminals provide Germany with an import capacity of 70.7 million tons of liquefied gas annually by 2030. Germany is set to become the world’s fourth-largest LNG importer, after South Korea, China, and Japan. Source: Oilprice.com
From: PV Magazine Google translation from German. Power plant strategy passes Federal Cabinet The Electricity Supply Security and Capacity Act provides for tenders for the construction of new generation plants in 2026 and 2027. Gas-fired power plants are the preferred option. This power plant strategy is facing criticism. The German government is relying primarily on natural gas to ensure secure electricity generation capacity. May 13, 2026 Petra Hannen
A chart showing the change in Germany's electricity sources between 2024 and 2025. The data show public electricity generation (i.e grid feed-in). Lignite: Down 3.9 TWh Hard coal: Up 2.9 TWh Gas: up 8.8 TWh Other conventional: Down 1.2 TWh Other renewables: Down 6.0 TWh Wind: Down 4.3 TWh Solar: Up 10.8 TWh Data: Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE, 2026
A chart showing the annual gas consumption of the four EU nations with the highest gas consumption, from 2014 to 2025. Germany has the highest gas consumption, then Italy, France, and Spain. Source: Eurostat, JRC EU security of supply dashboard
A map showing electricity prices across Europe at 11:00am BST on 20 June, 2026. Prices are -€0.01/MWh across Europe from Spain to Poland, £79.01/MWh in Britain. Source: Electricity Maps
From: Stop Tiptoeing Around Russia Alexander Vindman, Foreign Affairs, August 8, 2022. But the conclusions the ungroup reached are clearly imprinted not just on U.S. foreign policy in the last years of the Soviet Union but also on U.S. priorities in the newly independent Soviet republics. The three greatest threats the United States would face in the wake of the Soviet Union’s collapse, the ungroup predicted, would be the proliferation of new nuclear weapons states; “loose nukes,” or the loss, theft, or sale of weapons-grade fissile material, especially to nonstate actors or countries with clandestine nuclear weapons programs; and conflicting loyalties in the Soviet military that might lead to civil war in the newly independent republics or in Russia itself.
Changes in Russia's key interest rate, to 24 April 2026: Sep. 16 2022: 7.5% Jul. 21 2023: 8.5% Aug. 15 2023 12% Sep. 15 2023: 13% Oct. 27 2023: 15% Dec. 15 2023: 16% Jul. 26 2024: 18% Sep. 13 2024: 19% Oct. 25 2024: 21% Jun. 06 2025: 20% Jul. 25 2025: 18% Sep. 12 2025: 17% Oct. 24 2025: 16.5% Dec. 19 2025: 16% Feb. 13 2026: 15.5% Mar. 20 2026: 15.0% Apr. 24 2026: 14.5% Jun. 19 2026: 14.25% Source: tradingeconomics.com | Central Bank of Russia.
A chart showing day-ahead spot electricity prices for 18 June 2026, for France and Germany. Spot prices in Germany rose to over €500/MWh in the late evening. Source: Nord Pool day-ahead prices.
A chart showing production losses of nuclear electricity in France for the years 2000-Aug. 2022, by power plant, for losses attributed to high temperatures and flow constraints in rivers. All the production losses are attributed to high temperatures, except Chooz, whose losses are wholly due to flow constraints. Nuclear power plants and their production losses, 2000 - Aug. 2022, in GWh: Belleville: 0.15 GWh Blayais: 2135 GWh Bugey: 4394 GWh Cattenom: 0 GWh Chinon: 32 GWh Chooz: 5644 GWh Civaux: 0.027 GWh Cruas: 8.6 GWh Dampierre: 113 GWh Fessenheim: 294 GWh Flamanville: 9.5 GWh Golfech: 2116 GWh Gravelines: 0.49 GWh Nogent: 0 GWh Paluel: 0 GWh Penly: 0 GWh St.-Alban: 5047 GWh Saint Laurent: 0 GWh Tricastin: 4272 GWh Source: Cour des comptes, March 2023
A graph showing production losses of nuclear electricity in France for the years 2000-Aug. 2022, for losses attributed to high temperatures and flow constraints in rivers. Year and lost production in GWh 2000: 1075.855 GWh 2001: 219.975 GWh 2002: 71.289 GWh 2003: 6318.255 GWh 2004: 931.802 GWh 2005: 2690.211 GWh 2006: 2139.515 GWh 2007: 2.915 GWh 2008: 80.919 GWh 2009: 86.329 GWh 2010: 126.401 GWh 2011: 743.728 GWh 2012: 177.191 GWh 2013: 170.113 GWh 2014: 79.173 GWh 2015: 665.068 GWh 2016: 53.81 GWh 2017: 643.803 GWh 2018: 2734.391 GWh 2019: 1448.293 GWh 2020: 3101.735 GWh 2021: 4.95 GWh 2022: 501.351 GWh Source: Cour des comptes, March 2023
A chart showing the coal phaseout schedule for the coal and lignite power plants Germany commissioned between 2012 and 2020. The last coal plant will be closed at the end of 2038.
I mages showing eleven of the new coal power plants Germany commissioned between 2012 and 2020, starting with the Neurath F and G lignite plants, 1060 MW each, in 2012, and ending with the Datteln 4 hard coal plant, 1100 MW, in 2020.
Bloomberg News agency 01/09/2025 Germany has already met its 2028 goal for reducing coal-fired power generation, so won’t need to order the shutdown of any plants for a second year running, the country’s regulator said.
A chart showing Germany's planned coal-fired capacity retirements from 2026 to 2040, along with the German Coal Commission's recommendations. Sources: Global Coal Plant Tracker, 2026, CarbonBrief, 2019.