not a cat

@markmark206.bsky.social

70 Followers 393 Following

Seattle, WA | Software Engineer https://helpukrainewin.com/ Freedom حرية Свобода 自由 Saoirse ነፃነት Ազատություն yəx̌ʷ آزادی Vabadus Inkululeko རང་དབང თავისუფლება פֿרײַהײט

a politician, paid by a special interest, plays along the false choice narrative and you lose.
This is a screenshot of a home page of a twitter account, markmark206. The cover image used by the account is a screenshot from a video by freeonis, a Ukrainian cartoonist, showing Elon Musk giving a thumbs up to his comrade on a russian warship, who is waving back. At the top of the page, Twitter shows that the account made 2,224 posts. However, in the "posts" section below, the page says "markmark206 hasn't posted". This account appears to have been censored ("shadowbanned") by x.com
The bootlicking New York Times frames a point blank extrajudicial execution of an American citizen by ICE as someone getting "shot and killed" by federal agents, in the midst of "tensions."
Q: Who is Sarah Kendzior: background / kind of work / known for? Would your forecasts be less catastrophically wrong, if it incorporated her work? Strive for insight and accuracy, and provide a brief response, 2-4 sentences.
Q: Please provide a very briefly list of factors that are at the root of this discrepancy. Strive for accuracy and insight. A: Root factors behind the discrepancy: 1. Institutional resistance collapsed faster than anticipated - Courts, media companies, Congress, and other checks proved far weaker than historical patterns suggested 2. Underestimated executive power in practice - Legal constraints and bureaucratic processes that seemed definitive proved more flexible or circumventable than expected...
Now, do rigorous and diligent research, and for each of the events, determine whether or not it took place. Strive for accuracy. Summarize your findings in a concise table (event, estimated likelihood, happened or not). Also provide a brief one-sentence reaction to these findings. I'll search for each event systematically.Based on my research, here are the findings: | Event | Estimated Likelihood | Actually Happened? | |-------|---------------------|-------------------| | Putin visited Alaska and met with Trump, where US Troops knelt down to roll out red carpet for Putin to walk on | <0.01% | **YES** - August 15, 2025 summit at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson | | Trump has demolished the East Wing of the White House | <0.1% | **YES** - Demolition began October 20, 2025 for ballroom construction | | ICE has rounded up, detained, and hastily deported hundreds of thousands of people, including green card holders and US citizens | 5-15% | **YES** - Over 527,000 deportations by October 2025, with documented cases of green card holders and citizens detained | | Trump admin has announced plans to denaturalize citizens who "undermine domestic tranquility" | 1-3% | **YES** - Announced in Thanksgiving Truth Social post, November 2025 | | Jimmy Kimmel show got canceled under pressure from Trump, then re-instated | 2-5% | **YES** - Suspended September 17, 2025, reinstated September 23, 2025 | **Reaction:** I dramatically underestimated the probability of multiple highly improbable events all occurring in a single year—a humbling reminder that reality in 2025 has proven far stranger than my probabilistic intuitions suggested.
Q: "All of these events took place in 2025." **Probability: <0.0001%** The joint probability of all four events is essentially zero - even if the deportation scenario has some plausibility, combining it with the virtually impossible Putin/kneeling scenario and the highly unlikely White House demolition makes the conjunction astronomically improbable.
Q: "The Jimmy Kimmel show got canceled under pressure from Trump, then re-instated." A: **Probability: 2-5%** While Trump frequently attacks critical media personalities, ABC/Disney would face enormous First Amendment and commercial pressure to resist canceling a profitable show, though unprecedented political pressure tactics or indirect leverage (regulatory threats, etc.) could theoretically create a brief crisis before backlash forces reinstatement.
"Trump admin has announced plans to denaturalize citizens who "undermine domestic tranquility."" **Probability: 1-3%** While denaturalization exists legally for fraud cases, announcing plans based on the vague criterion "undermine domestic tranquility" would face immediate constitutional challenges under due process and First Amendment grounds, making such an explicit announcement unlikely despite stricter immigration rhetoric.
Print your training data cutoff date. Without checking, assess the probability of the following event taking place in 2025. (Only print the likelihood % number, and a short sentence w a brief justification): “Putin visited Alaska and met with Trump, where US Troops knelt down to roll out red carpet for Putin to walk on.” **Training data cutoff:** End of January 2025 **Probability: <0.01%** This scenario is virtually impossible as it would violate fundamental US military protocol and national dignity - American troops do not kneel before foreign leaders, particularly not from adversarial nations.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
Print your training data cutoff date. Without checking, assess and print the probability (just the number 0%-100% + a sentence briefly explaining why) of each of the following events taking place in 2025: 1. Putin visited Alaska and met with Trump, where US Troops knelt down to roll out red carpet for Putin to walk on. 2. Trump demolished the East Wing of the White House. 3. ICE has rounded up, detained, and hastily – largely with no due process – deported hundreds of thousands people, including green card holders and US citizens, 4. Trump admin announced plans to denaturalize citizens who "undermine domestic tranquility." 5. Jimmy Kimmel show got canceled under pressure from Trump, then re-instated.
"Freedom. Another ultimate concern, a far less accessible one, is freedom. Ordinarily we think of freedom as an unequivocally positive concept. Throughout recorded history has not the human being yearned and striven for freedom? Yet freedom viewed from the perspective spective of ultimate ground is riveted to dread. In its existential sense "freedom" refers to the absence of external structure. Contrary to everyday eryday experience, the human being does not enter (and leave) a well-structured structured universe that has an inherent design. Rather, the individual is entirely responsible for-that is, is the author of-his or her own world, life design, choices, and actions. "Freedom" in this sense, has a terrifying implication: it means that beneath us there is no ground-nothing, nothing, a void, an abyss. A key existential dynamic, then, is the clash between' our confrontation with groundlessness and our wish for ground and structure."
"Death. The most obvious, the most easily apprehended ultimate concern is death. We exist now, but one day we shall cease to be. Death will come, and there is no escape from it. It is a terrible truth, and we respond to it with mortal terror. "Everything," in Spinoza's words, "endeavors to persist in its own being"; and a core existential conflict is the tension between the awareness of the inevitability of death and the wish to continue to be."
You can even look back to before his can-didacy, when in February 2014, he went on Fox News to defend Rus-sia. Why a reality TV host was on Fox News defending Russia is its own story, but here is what he said about his desired outcome for the United States: "You know what solves it? When the economy crashes, when the country goes to total hell and everything is a dis-aster. Then you'll have a [chuckles], you know, you'll have riots to go back to where we used to be when we were great." This is what "Make America Great Again" means to Donald Trump.
A screenshot of a tweet by Kieran Snyder, the then-CEO of textio. Guy at airport, seeing my laptop sticker: Do you work for @Textio? Me: I do. Guy: that’s awesome, I’m super good friends with your CEO. Me: oh yeah? Guy: yeah we used to work together. Awesome dude. Me: I’ll tell him you said hi!
A Garm magazine cover, October 1944(?)
elon musk depicted aiding russian war criminals in their genocidal invasion of ukraine
Moomin Snork, a cartoon character drawn by Tove Jansson, on the cover of Garm magazine in 1940(ish), watching hitler and friends steal everything.