Matías Scaglione

@matias.motioresearch.com

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Co-Founder and Principal Economist at Motio Research. High-frequency measurement and analysis of U.S. household income. motioresearch.com

Line chart titled "U.S. Median Household Income, Year-over-Year Change," showing percent change from 12 months earlier for nominal and real household income from 2011 to 2026. Both series trend upward from near 0% in 2011 to roughly 4-5% by 2019. A sharp anomaly appears in 2020-2021, with nominal income spiking above 9% while real income plunges below -5%, reflecting CPS nonresponse bias during the pandemic. Nominal growth then surges again in 2022, peaking near 8%, while real growth stays comparatively muted. From 2023 onward both series moderate, with nominal income fluctuating between 2% and 6% and real income between roughly 1% and 4%. Real income growth had been strengthening through spring 2026, rising from 2.3% in March to 2.7% in April, before easing slightly to 2.6% in May and then falling a full percentage point in June, sharply interrupting the prior upward trajectory. A note below the chart states that April-November 2020 and 2021 estimates are affected by CPS nonresponse bias, and that October 2025 was imputed using September and November 2025 estimates and Chained CPI values. Source: Motio Research estimates based on CPS and Chained CPI data.
Line chart titled “Motio U.S. Real Median Household Income Index,” with March 2010 set to 100. The index fell to about 97 in 2011–2013, then rose steadily through 2019. Estimates around 2020 are marked as unreliable because of CPS nonresponse bias. After declining and flattening in 2021–2023, the index resumed rising, reaching 119.5 in spring 2026 before falling to 118.9 in June 2026. The series is a seasonally adjusted three-month moving average based on CPS and Chained CPI data.
U.S. Median Household Income, Year-over-Year Change - Percent change from 12 months earlier. Note: Year-over-year changes are calculated from 3-month moving average, seasonally adjusted series. April–November 2020 estimates and April–November 2021 year-over-year estimates are affected by CPS nonresponse bias. October 2025 was imputed using September and November 2025 household income estimates and Chained CPI values.
Chart showing the Motio U.S. Real Median Household Income Index from 2010 to May 2026. The index stood at 119.6 in May 2026, indicating that real median household income was 19.6% higher than in March 2010. The chart highlights the April–November 2020 period as unreliable due to pandemic-related nonresponse bias.