Matt Sperling

@mattsperling.bsky.social

1023 Followers 269 Following

Magic: The Gathering Tour Pro

P(takebolt) = probability they take bolt if duress resolves. V(takebolt) = value as a change in win% of them taking bolt instead of Cancel. (a positive number) V(reveal) = value as a change in win% of them knowing you have bolt after taking cancel. (a negative number) V(letresolve) = (P(takebolt) * V(takebolt)) + ((1-P(takebolt)) * V(reveal)) You're allowed to conclude that V(letresolve) is negative and counter the duress, but if you just say "PV's rule!" or only mention the right side of the equation that revealing info has value, you haven't shown your work at the level I'm trying to work through it.