Max Warner

@maxwarner.bsky.social

767 Followers 67 Following

Economist at the IFS working on healthcare, public spending and public sector productivity https://ifs.org.uk/people/max-warner

Chart showing planned increases in defence spending as a share of GDP
Chart showing total English NHS trust staffing since 2009
Chart showing NHS staffing growth in English NHS trusts since 2022
Changes in activity in English NHS hospitals, comparing growth rates between 23/24 and 24/25 to growth rates between 24/25 and 25/26
Chart showing changes in staffing and activity in English NHS trusts between 2024-25 and 2025-26
Chart showing an increase in preventative consultations
Chart showing number joining the waiting list
Chart showing share of patients leaving the waiting list within 18 weeks
Chart showing number of unreported removals from the waiting list
Chart showing number of completed pathways from the waiting list
Chart showing performance against the govt's 18 week target
Text from SDR saying that it was conducted within a context of spending 2.5% of GDP on defence
Chart showing changes in hospital activity relative to 2019 Q3
Screenshot of the tool
Chart showing simulated and actual performance against the 18 week NHS RTT target in England
Chart showing changes to staffing and hospital activity, April to September 2025 vs April to September 2019
Chart showing changes to hospital activity in Wales, England and Scotland
Chart showing share of patients waiting less than four hours in major A&E departments in England, Wales and Scotland
Chart showing share of patients waiting over a year from referral to elective treatment in Wales
Chart showing median waiting time for elective treatment in Wales and England
Chart showing spending per person on health in Wales relative to England
Chart showing changes to staffing and hospital activity, April to September 2025 vs April to September 2019
Chart showing changes to hospital activity
Chart showing share of patients waiting less than four hours to be admitted, transferred or discharged in major A&E departments
Chart showing share of patients waiting over a year from referral for elective treatment in Scotland
Chart showing the relationship between life expectancy and median income in parliamentary constituencies in England, Scotland and Wales, 2023
Chart showing the difference between real-terms health spending per person in Scotland and England
Chart showing there is no correlation between productivity growth in English hospitals between Q1 2024 to Q1 2025 and Q2 2024 to Q2 2025
Chart showing that the NHS currently has more beds occupied with patients with flu than at the same points in recent years. But the current level is below the peaks of past years
Chart showing that 2024-25 is the first year in recent years where elective activity has grown much faster than completed waiting list pathways
Chart showing that growth in new referrals has been low, while elective activity growth has been high. But the number of patients leaving the waiting list has been lower than this growth in activity
Chart showing that over the last year NHS funding and resources have increased. Hospital activity has also increased, driven by elective not emergency activity
Chart showing there is little correlation between productivity growth and change in 18 weeks waiting time performance at the trust level in 2024-25 compared with 2023-24
Chart showing 18 week performance and trend since the election
Chart showing the trade-off between DHSC spending growth and spending growth for all other areas
Chart showing that the NHS has traditionally received faster planned spending growth than planned total spending growth at Spending Reviews
Screenshot of the tool showing identifiable capital investment per person in 2023-24 across the regions of the UK
Screenshot of tool showing breakdown of capital spending in 2023-24
Screenshot of tool showing defence, health and education capital spending as a % of total capital spending over time
Screenshot of tool showing spending on defence, health and education as a % of total spending over time
Screenshot of tool showing how spending on public services differs between England and Scotland
Screenshot of tool showing how healthcare capital spending differs around the UK
Table summarising the results of a range of scenarios
Simulated performance against the 18-week target under a variety of treatment growth rate assumptions, holding all other factors constant
Chart showing the relationship between size of the waiting list and percentage waiting less than 18 weeks
Chart showing the proportion of general and acute beds occupied in the English NHS
Chart showing that the number of critical care hospital beds in the English NHS occupied by patients with flu is also falling in recent weeks
Chart showing that the number of general and acute hospital beds in the English NHS occupied by patients with flu is falling in recent weeks
Table showing waiting times are worse than pre-pandemic in both England and Scotland, but most have worsened in the last year in Scotland and most have improved in the last year in England