Metaculus @metaculus.com · Dec 12

In April, a federal judge found probable cause the Trump admin willfully defied a court order on deportation flights. The contempt probe intensified this week. We've added a $10,000 prize pool to our US Democracy Threat Index. Scenarios like this are exactly what it tracks. 1/4

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Metaculus · Dec 12

We built the index with @brendannyhan.bsky.social & Bright Line Watch. 39 forecast questions track scenarios like court defiance, contempt referrals, DOJ follow-through, and transfers to foreign prisons. Together they aggregate into a single metric of US institutional resilience. 2/4