Metaculus @metaculus.com · Dec 12 We built the index with @brendannyhan.bsky.social & Bright Line Watch. 39 forecast questions track scenarios like court defiance, contempt referrals, DOJ follow-through, and transfers to foreign prisons. Together they aggregate into a single metric of US institutional resilience. 2/4
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Each question asks whether a specific, observable event will occur: Will executive officials defy court orders? Will journalists be charged under the Espionage Act? Will 10+ presidential affiliates receive pardons? Will US authorities transfer citizens to prisons abroad? 3/4