Metaculus @metaculus.com · Jun 4 2/ House: 89% chance Democrats retake it | Senate: 59% chance Republicans retain the chamber Most likely outcome: split Congress; Rep Senate, Dem House (49%)
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3/ The Senate math is tight. Forecasters' aggregate forecast right now is a tied chamber, with the middle 50% of forecasts ranging from a 2-seat Democratic edge to a 3-seat Republican edge.