Michael Lowry

@michaelrlowry.bsky.social

6840 Followers 221 Following

Hurricane Specialist and Storm Surge Expert at Miami's WPLG-TV Local 10 News. Posts my own. http://linktr.ee/michaelrlowry

Screenshot of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) 106th Annual Meeting registration showing an optional short course add-on for the 25th Annual Student Conference at a cost of $50,000
"Emails sent to senior agency leadership in late December include detailed tables identifying roles that can be cut from the agency’s divisions. These tables include a 41 percent reduction in CORE disaster roles, more than 4,300 positions. They also list reductions in surge staffing, standby workers who are often the first on the ground when a disaster strikes, by 85 percent, or nearly 6,500 roles."
Noem, as the council co-chair, is responsible for finalizing the report and sending it to Trump for review. Her draft, which is not finished, recommends keeping FEMA within DHS and largely removing FEMA from its direct role in disaster relief, instead turning it into more of a grant-making operation, according to five people familiar with the situation who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the private deliberations. The council’s earlier draft did not recommend those changes, but rather that FEMA gets elevated to a Cabinet-level office.
Record water temperature anomalies from September 15-21, 2025, and Gabrielle preliminary best track through 5 PM ET Monday, September 22, 2025. Gabrielle rapidly strengthened to a Category 4 hurricane Monday as it passed over a patch of record warm sea surface temperatures for the time of year, shown in deep red near and east of Bermuda.
Normalized mean sea level pressure anomalies over the past two weeks showing a much stronger than average Azores High pressure (also known as the Bermuda High or North Atlantic Subtropical High or NASH), as indicated by the deeper red colors near the Azores Islands west of the Iberian peninsula
Figure from Emanuel, 2021 (Atlantic tropical cyclones downscaled from climate reanalyses show increasing activity over past 150 years) showing the trend in Atlantic landfalls (top), hurricanes (middle), and Cat 3+ hurricanes (bottom) from three independent downscaled climate reanalyses (red curves) compared to the observed historical hurricane record (blue curves). The pronounced upward trend in downscaled counts are statistically significant and support the upward trend in observed higher-end Atlantic hurricanes.
Position "fixes" for all named storms over the Atlantic Main Development Region or MDR since 1966. White dots show fixes of named storms moving at less than 23 mph, orange dots show tropical storms moving at 23 mph or faster, and maroon dots show hurricanes moving at 23 mph or faster. 97% of these fixes are named storms moving at less than 23 mph. Erin has been moving at around 23 mph on Tuesday.
“The proverbial butterfly flapping its wings today can mean your two-week hurricane may quickly evaporate by tomorrow,” Lowry said. For forecasts beyond a week, meteorologists use an ensemble — a collection of models — to gauge general regional risks, but not landfall-level precision. This year, there’s also a new tool for meteorologists and model watchers alike: artificial intelligence-driven forecast models that go out 15 days. These provide yet another option in an already crowded predictive weather world. But, according to Lowry, they’re not helping the hurricane hype machine. “The pervasiveness of AI has given the 15-day weather forecast an extra air of credibility,” Lowry said. But he added some of the latest AI weather models have blind spots.
Plot showing the percentage of SSMIS scans to all global tropical cyclone imagery from conical scanners from 1987 to 2023. The plot shows the dramatic rise in reliance on U.S. Defense operated SSMIS since around 2010, with about 65% of all conical microwave scans coming from SSMIS in recent years. Data credit: Naufal Ranzin/Colorado State University/TC PRIMED
The Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) has announced plans to continue distribution of Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) data beyond July 31, 2025.  As a result, there will be no interruption to DMSP data delivery and NOAA will continue to have access to data from DMSP for the duration of the Program’s life span. Any additional information would have to come from the Department of Defense.
NOAA statement issued July 29, 2025: NOAA will continue to have access to data from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program for the duration of the Program’s life span. The DMSP is a single dataset in a robust suite of hurricane forecasting and modeling tools in the NWS portfolio. Current forecast models continue to include data from: • GOES and other geostationary Earth-observing satellites • Polar-orbiting satellites, including Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) and EUMETSAT MetOp • Hurricane Hunter aircraft reconnaissance missions and other aircraft-based observations • Observations on the ground and from buoys • Radiosondes and supplemental upper air soundings • Ground-based weather radar sites in the U.S. and neighboring countries In particular, the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS), currently flying on NOAA’s JPSS, provides the richest, most accurate satellite weather observations available. NOAA’s data sources are fully capable of providing a complete suite of cutting-edge data and models that ensure the gold-standard weather forecasting the American people deserve. For more information regarding DSMP, please reach out to the Department of Defense.
Forecast low pressure tracks through next Sunday morning (July 20th) from the 12Z Sunday, July 13 models. The top pane shows the traditional European ensemble members with only one or two gray lines over the northern Gulf. The bottom pane shows the new European AI ensembles with lots of multi-colored lines over the northern Gulf, signaling greater development odds.
From former NHC Hurricane Specialist and Hurricane Specialist Unit Chief, "So what happens at NHC if NOAA Research is shut down? Right away, the Doppler radar missions would stop, along with the forecast improvement they bring. Almost certainly by next year, some of the most important intensity models would fall out of service, degrading NHC’s intensity forecasts. Websites that provide forecasters with crucial satellite analyses would break. Intensity estimates for storms beyond aircraft range would be degraded. Formation forecasts for disturbances would likely become less accurate. Longer term, I think track forecasts would continue to get better, but at a slower pace. Intensity forecasts, however, would likely stagnate or even regress."
Anonymous quote from former FEMA employee from The Handbasket article "'We would have hundreds of people on scene in FEMA jackets registering people for assistance, regional coordination center fully activated, national at least partly activated,' a current FEMA employee whose identity is being protected for fear of reprisal told The Handbasket. 'Setting up disaster recovery centers with federal partners, we’d have our search and rescue there already. We would have mission assigned other agencies like USACE (US Army Corp of Engineers) to clear debris and establish power.'"