NFL Scenarios

@nflplayoffscenarios.com

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NFL tiebreaking expert. Author of https://NFLPlayoffScenarios.com Keep the site ad-free by supporting the Patreon! https://www.patreon.com/cw/TiebreakerExperts All professional looking images are by @jpmsportsstats.bsky.social

Acknowledgements This site would not be what it is without the support of many people. Thank you to everyone who visits the site. Even without doing anything else but visiting, you help the site to be more visible which allows others to find it. Thank you to everyone who reaches out on social media. Whether it be to ask a question, to offer feedback on the site, or just to offer a kind word - you are what keeps me doing this year after year. I do what I do because I love scenarios, and I love teaching people. Thank you so much to all of our Patreon subscribers! We were able to keep the site ad-free for everyone all season thanks to your generosity. A special thanks to our generous Patreon Division Title Holders - Mersich Family, Sophie Hutchenson, osman ip, and Michael My family has put up with my addiction to scenarios even when I was writing blogs with 0 readers. Without their support and willingness to entertain my hobby, none of this would have been possible. This is not a small time investment, and they put up with this every season. Anyone who enjoys my work owes them accolades. Jeff Murray offers me endless support, motivation, and feedback. He makes the whole season more fun. Justin Mader is responsible for our new logo and all the fancy pictures on our social media. You’ve all seen my site and know that graphic design is not my talent, so his skills have been invaluable.
1 DEN, 7 LAC @ 2 NE, 6 BUF @ 3 JAX, 5 HOU @ 4 PIT
BAL has been eliminated from playoff contention
PIT has clinched their division title
1 SEA 7 GB @ 2 CHI 6 SF @ 3 PHI 5) LAR @ 4) CAR
DEN has clinched homefield advantage and a first round bye
CAR has clinched their division title.
TB has been eliminated from playoff contention.
LV has clinched the #1 overall 2026 draft pick
JAX has clinched their division title.
Seattle has clinched a first round bye and homefield advantage
New England has clinched their Division Title
Chicago has clinched their division title.
Denver has clinched their division title
IND has been eliminated from playoff contention.
Houston has clinched a playoff berth.
GB has clinched a playoff berth
DET has been eliminated from playoff contention.
JAX has clinched a playoff berth.
Buffalo has clinched a playoff berth
LA Chargers have clinched a playoff berth
NE has clinched a playoff berth
SF has clinched a playoff berth
CHI has clinched a playoff berth
Dallas has been eliminated from playoff contention
Philadelphia has clinched their division title
Miami has been eliminated from playoff contention.
Denver has clinched a playoff berth.
LAR has clinched a playoff berth
KC has been eliminated from playoff contention.
Minnesota has been eliminated from playoff contention.
Cincinnati has been eliminated from playoff contention.
KC elimination scenarios with a 45 scenario list, which is the full expansion of: - KC loss + BUF win + JAX win + HOU win - KC loss + BUF win + JAX win + IND win - KC loss + BUF win + HOU win + IND win - KC loss + BUF win + HOU win + 3+ from (CAR, LAR, CIN, SF, GB, PHI) ! - KC loss + BUF win + HOU win + MIA loss + 2+ from (CAR, LAR, SF, GB, PHI) ! - KC loss + BUF win + IND win + 5+ from (CAR, LAR, CIN, SF, GB, PHI) ! - KC loss + BUF win + IND win + 4 from (CAR, SF, LAR, GB) + 2 from (NYG, TB) ! - KC loss + BUF win + IND win + MIA loss + 4 from (CAR, LAR, SF, GB, PHI) !
- KC loss + BUF win/tie + JAX win/tie + HOU win - KC loss + BUF win/tie + JAX win/tie + HOU tie + IND tie - KC loss + BUF win/tie + JAX win/tie + IND win - KC loss + BUF win/tie + HOU win + IND win/tie - KC loss + BUF win/tie + HOU win + 2.5+ from (CAR, LAR, CIN, SF, GB, PHI) - KC loss + BUF win/tie + HOU win + MIA loss/tie + 1.5+ from (CAR, LAR, SF, GB, PHI) - KC loss + BUF win/tie + HOU win + MIA loss/tie + BAL tie + CAR win - KC loss + BUF win/tie + HOU win + MIA tie + BAL loss + 1+ from (CAR, LAR, SF, GB, PHI) - KC loss + BUF win/tie + HOU tie + IND tie + 4.5+ from (CAR, LAR, CIN, SF, GB, PHI) - KC loss + BUF win/tie + HOU tie + IND tie + 4 from (LAR, SF, GB, CAR) + 2 from (TB, NYG) - KC loss + BUF win/tie + HOU tie + IND tie + MIA loss/tie + 3.5+ from (CAR, LAR, SF, GB, PHI) - KC loss + BUF win/tie + HOU tie + IND tie + MIA loss/tie + BAL tie + CAR win + 2 from (LAR, SF, GB) - KC loss + BUF win/tie + HOU tie + IND tie + MIA loss/tie + BAL tie + CAR win + PHI tie + 1.5 from (LAR, SF, GB) - KC loss + BUF win/tie + HOU tie + IND tie + MIA loss/tie + BAL tie + CAR tie + 2.5 from (LAR, SF, GB) - KC loss + BUF win/tie + HOU tie + IND tie + MIA tie + BAL loss + 3+ from (CAR, LAR, SF, GB, PHI)
MIN eliminated with loss or tie + GB win/tie WAS eliminated with loss/tie or PHI win/tie
Cleveland has been eliminated from playoff contention.
NYJ eliminated from playoff contention
Atlanta eliminated from playoff contention.
WAS eliminated from playoff contention.
NFC Scenarios: MIN is eliminated from playoff contention with: 1) MIN loss OR 2) MIN tie + GB win/tie WAS is eliminated from NFC East title contention AND playoff contention with: 1) WAS loss/tie OR 2) PHI win/tie ATL is knocked out of NFC South title contention with: 1) ATL loss OR 2) ATL tie + TB win/tie ATL is eliminated from playoff contention with: 1) ATL loss OR 2) ATL tie + TB win/tie + GB win/tie DAL is knocked out of 1 seed contention with: 1) DAL loss + LAR win + SEA win OR 2) DAL loss + LAR win + SEA tie + CHI win
LV has been eliminated from playoff contention.
TEN has been eliminated from playoff contention.
NO has been eliminated from playoff contention
ARI eliminated from playoff contention.
A new logo for Tiebreaker experts. A 16 team bracket with 8 teams on each side, connecting to the next round with diagonal lines, giving it a hexagonal look. The last right side matchup is recolored to be the top and bottom of an E, with the middle of the E being a 3rd line that wouldn't ordinarily appear in a bracket. A T sits in the middle of the finals matchup with the top line of the T suggesting is would be where the winner would be written. At the bottom it says "Tiebreaker Experts" in all caps with a font that has a similar hexagonal look to the bracket.
IND at 6-6, PIT at 5-5-1, DEN at 5-5. IND wins tiebreak over PIT/DEN on Conference Record for the 10 seed, PIT wins the tiebreak over DEN on head-to-head for the 11 seed.
GB gets the 1 seed over PHI on conference record. GB is 4-1-1, and PHI is 6-2
1) SF 2) PHI 3) TB 4) GB 5) SEA 6) DET 7) WAS 8) LAR 9) MIN 10) ARI 11) CAR 12) ATL 13) CHI 14) DAL 15) NO 16) NYG
Acknowledgements thanking the following people: Everyone who interacts on social media My family Jeff Murray Justin Mader Kyle Standerfer Thomas Donovan Ray Lehnhoff Joe Ferreira Full explanations can be found at https://nflplayoffscenarios.com/2024/week/18/week-18-season-summary/#acknowledgements
1 TEN 2 CLE 3 NYG 4 NE 5 JAX 6 LV 7 NYJ 8 CAR 9 NO 10 CHI 11 SF 12 DAL 13 MIA 14 IND 15 ATL 16 ARI 17 CIN 18 SEA
Full playoff bracket. 7 GB @ 2 PHI on 1/12 4:30 3 TB @ 6 WAS on 1/12 8:00 4 LAR @ 5 MIN on 1/13 8:00 7 DEN @ 2 BUF on 1/12 1:00 3 BAL @ 6 PIT on 1/11 8:00 4 HOU @ 5 LAC on 1/11 4:30
NFC Playoff Picture. DET has the 1 seed and a bye. 7 GB plays at 2 PHI. 6 WAS plays at 3 TB. 5 MIN plays at 4 LAR
Detroit has clinched a first round bye and homefield advantage
AFC playoff picture. 1 seed is KC. 7 DEN goes to 2 BUF. 6 PIT goes to 3 BAL. 5 LAC goes to 4 HOU
CIN has been eliminated from playoff contention.
MIA has been eliminated from playoff contention.
DEN has clinched a playoff berth
ATL has been eliminated from playoff contention.
TB has clinched their division title.
Graphic indicating Baltimore has clinched their division title