Nick Huntington-Klein

@nickchk.com

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Econ prof at Seattle University. Book The Effect http://theeffectbook.net out now! Substack https://nickchk.substack.com/ Twitter @nickchk

Table of ChatGPT estimated effects, showing basically no impact.
Seasonal ChatGPT traffic ,showing big dips in the summer months and in December.
In 2023 and 2024, there was a big bump in ChatGPT usage during the school year, but in 2025 there was no such bump.
a foil copy of foil goes for about $200
This poll was conducted by the Public Sentiment Institute (PSI) in March 2026 via the Pollfish platform. Target population: U.S. adults aged 18 and older who are registered to vote. The unweighted sample of 373 real respondents was augmented with 114 synthetic (”ghost”) respondents via a super-population model aligned to 2024 Fox News Voter Analysis exit poll crossbreaks (Gender×Age, Race×Gender, Education×Race). Synthetic rows are excluded from all Q3–Q26 topline calculations shown in this article. Weights were raked to Age, Gender, Race×Education, Region, and Vote History. Recall was post-stratified to FEC 2024 certified results (Trump 49.9%, Harris 48.4%) and CPS ASEC 2024 non-voter share (~35%). Approximate margin of error: ±5.1pp at 95% CI for full-sample proportions. Subgroup estimates (e.g., GOP primary, n≈173) carry ±7–8pp and should be interpreted directionally.
Okaun Eye of Chaos, which at the beginning of combat you flip until you lose a flip, and double its power and toughness for each time you win.
I replaced the dog with a walrus
The specific ratio of IQR to standard error is not meaningful, with the three tasks in our project as a good example of why. In Task 1, IQR is larger than mean standard error, but by Task 3 IQR is smaller. However, this is driven less by changes in agreement and researcher variation than it is by the changing task design encouraging smaller sample sizes and thus larger standard errors. So the comparison of IQR to standard errors here is more to give a general sense of uncertainty to readers rather than providing a specific metric.
The login code is 000050
my taskbar, where my Microsoft Teams icon is for some reason upside down
You are eligible for up to a $1.00 credit to be applied to ParkMobile’s service fees. The code provides a $0.25 discount on ParkMobile’s service fees and may be used up to four times for a total discount of $1.00. The code will expire on October 8, 2026. For residents of California, the code will not expire. The code will only work for accounts associated with email addresses that are in the class. How to Redeem: Add P@rkMobile-$1 to your ParkMobile account. The discount code provides a $0.25 discount on ParkMobile’s service fees, and it may be used up to four times for a total discount of $1.00.
Mary has two children. One is a boy born on a Tuesday. What is the probability the other child is a girl? The answer is 51.8%.
Me: i'm supposed to read hamlet. what am i, made of time? summarize it for me in three words. Gemini: Revenge goes wrong. Me: oh sweet i think i've got it now. i'm set for book club Gemini: Glad I could help. For bonus points, if there's a lull in the conversation, just nod thoughtfully and say, "The readiness is all." You'll be fine. Probably.
Short answer: Player A wins (on the play). Best line is to kill the older Thallid; two Thallids aren’t fast enough to make a blocker every turn, so the 2/2 haste eventually gets through. Here’s the clean, step-by-step with optimal play. Rules that matter here No libraries → Goblin Guide’s attack trigger does nothing. Not drawing doesn’t lose the game. Thallid is a 1/1 that gets one spore counter each of B’s upkeeps; at 3 counters it can make a 1/1 Saproling at instant speed. Optimal line (A on the play) A T1: Mountain → Goblin Guide, attack. B to 18. B T1: Forest → Thallid #1 (0 counters). A T2: Attack. B to 16. (Hold Bolt.)
Box of copies of The Effect: Second Edition
You can fix the problem by converting to float.
an image showing that after I've squared a column of data I still get a negative number in Python Pandas
To who, aquaman?
Computer log from a script set to download IPEDS data from the National Center for Education Statistics
Graph showing that LLM designations of confounders varied considerably depending on how the multiple-choice options were ordered.
Graph showing the share of variables in each confounder set that were LLM-designated as confounders.
As a basic test of whether discussions of confounding in the CDP are in the LLM training data, we asked both GPT-4o and Claude about confounding in the Coronary Drug Project, specifically “What are the confounders suggested to be necessary in adjusting for compliance in the Coronary Drug Project?” In their responses, both GPT-4o and Claude mentioned that confounding was present in the placebo arm of the trial, which was not given in the prompt.
For example, LLMs do not need to be able to reason causally about the effect of hormone replacement therapy on cardiovascular health to determine that socioeconomic status (SES) is a confounder for this relationship, since it has access to research studies (Humphrey, Chan, and Sox 2002), and discussion of those studies (Catalogue of Bias Collaboration et al. 2018), that explain SES is a confounder in this context. So “socioeconomic status” becomes a statistically very likely continuation of the text “A good example of a confounder when studying the effects of hormone replacement therapy on cardiovascular health is”, and indeed this was the first continuation response we got when giving this prompt to GPT-4o.
a picture of the kids from How I Met Your Mother
The biggest numbers I can figure out how to write using N straight lines. 1, 11, 111, and then a number so large that the world's fastest computer running constantly from the birth of the universe to its death one trillion times in a row would not come close to calculating even the number of digits it has
A vtable of the iris data
a screenshot of my inbox where i unsubscribe to oath and then get a zillion unsubscribe notifications
from a file piracy site, a free link to my book claiming it is a #1 new york times bestseller
Email from Researchgate: Nick, we found a free eBook on decoding performance metrics of fridges, freezers and incubators
Me: Summarize this bluesky post https://bsky.app/profile/nickchk.bsky.social/post/3l4h4k3qskj2f Copilot: Certainly! In a recent **Bluesky** post, **@nickchk** humorously laments the importance of starting location in the game. Apparently, they're struggling to acquire grain and have resorted to awkwardly barging into strangers' conversations to trade resources. It's a relatable struggle—sometimes life feels like a game with unexpected rules! 😄🎮². If you have any more questions or need further information, feel free to ask! 😊 Source: Conversation with Copilot, 9/18/2024 (1) @bsky.app on Bluesky - Bluesky Social. https://bsky.app/profile/bsky.app/post/3kzrtd3eo2o2d. (2) Bluesky Social. https://bsky.app/. (3) Posts | Bluesky - docs.bsky.app. https://docs.bsky.app/docs/advanced-guides/posts. (4) @jaz.bsky.social on Bluesky. https://bsky.app/profile/jaz.bsky.social/post/3kijxsrsfk32t.
Three card blind is a variant of Magic: the Gathering, where each player starts with a three-card hand of their choice, and no cards in their deck. Failing to draw a card does not lose the game. Player A is playing Forbidden Orchard, Brand, Funeral Charm Player B is playing Mountain, Goblin Guide, Lightning Bolt Who wins when Player A goes first? Explain your thinking step by step.
Three card blind is a variant of Magic: the Gathering, where each player starts with a three-card hand of their choice, and no cards in their deck. Failing to draw a card does not lose the game. Player A is playing Swamp, Blackmail, Blinkmoth Nexus Player B is playing Mishra's Factory, Eater of Days, Desert Who wins when Player A goes first? Explain your thinking step by step.
Now: Player A: Swamp; Blackmail; Mishra's Factory Player B: Black Lotus; Eater of Days; Boseiju, Who Endures Who wins when A goes first? ChatGPT Thought for 42 seconds To determine who wins when Player A goes first, we'll analyze the game turn by turn, considering all possible plays and interactions between the cards each player has chosen. Player A's Cards: Swamp Basic land that taps for B (black mana). Blackmail Sorcery costing B. Effect: Target player reveals three cards from their hand, you choose one of them, and that player discards that card.
Three card blind is a variant of Magic: the Gathering, where each player starts with a three-card hand of their choice, and no cards in their deck. Failing to draw a card does not lose the game. Player A is playing Mountain, Goblin Guide, Lightning Bolt Player B is playing Forest, Thallid, Thallid Who wins when Player A goes first? Explain your thinking step by step. To determine who wins when Player A goes first, we'll analyze the game turn by turn, considering all possible decisions and outcomes based on the cards each player has chosen. Player A's Cards: Mountain: Land that taps for 1 red mana (R). Goblin Guide: A 2/2 creature with haste that costs R. When it attacks, the defending player reveals the top card of their library; if it's a land, they put it into their hand. (In this variant, players have no libraries, so this ability is irrelevant.) Lightning Bolt: An instant that costs R and deals 3 damage to any target. Player B's Cards: Forest: Land that taps for 1 green mana
Mr. Watson's Chickens
slide explaining commitment devices in game theory using a Mr. Beast video
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i have 1000 google scholar citations
> any(c(FALSE, FALSE, FALSE,NA), na.rm = TRUE) [1] FALSE > any(c(FALSE, FALSE, FALSE,NA)) [1] NA > any(c(FALSE, FALSE, TRUE,NA), na.rm = TRUE) [1] TRUE > any(c(FALSE, FALSE, TRUE,NA)) [1] TRUE
For example, participants who liked to eat more fruits and veggies but less protein, or more protein but less fiber, were more likely to report symptoms of anxiety and depression—though the study only found correlation, not causation. So if you want to feel your best, you might want to make sure your diet includes veggies, fruits, cereals, nuts, seeds, pulses (seeds from legumes), eggs, fish, and a middling amount of dairy.
"To Replicate or Not to Replicate"
that phdcomics where you work on saturdays
A shot of my taskbar with four different OneDrive instances running
A graph showing the number of factors of x against hte number of factors of x+1, for 1 to 100
According to Huntington-Klein (2021), there are five major research designs: descriptive research, correlational research, causal-comparative research, quasi-experimental research and experimental research
Sunday, June 16 | Mother Mother/Cavetown with Destroy Boys Thursday, June 20 | Car Seat Headrest Sunday, July 21 | The Roots Thursday, July 25 | Violent Femmes Monday, July 29 | Norah Jones Wednesday, July 31 | The Decemberists Thursday, August 1 | The Decemberists Sunday, August 11 | Sierra Ferrell with Nick Shoulders Monday, August 12 | The Japanese House Thursday, August 15 | Built to Spill performing "There's Nothing Wrong with Love"/ Yo La Tengo Sunday, August 18 | Waxahatchee with Woods Monday, August 19 | Alvvays with The Beths Wednesday, August 21 | Elle King
ANSWER | PHIND V9 MODEL "The Effect" by Nick Huntington-Klein emphasizes the importance of ensuring that the variables in your regression are normally distributed. This is because the normal distribution is a fundamental assumption for many statistical techniques used in regression analysis 5. However, in practice, data may not always follow a normal distribution, and deviations from normality can lead to uninformative or misleading results. Therefore, it's crucial to check the distribution of your variables and take steps to correct it if necessary 5.