Noah Goodall

@noahgoodall.bsky.social

1172 Followers 71 Following

Transportation researcher. Pre-prints on personal site. Views are my own, not Commonwealth's. https://profile.virginia.edu/njg2q

From "Dave's Way" by Dave Thomas founder of Wendy's, p. 118, can be borrowed here: https://archive.org/details/daveswaynewappro00thom
"In short, to take just one example, the price discovery value of event contracts on how many points a basketball player will score in a game depends on more than whether the event contracts can be used to hedge the purchase price of a ticket to the game. In some circumstances, the prices of those contracts could also, along with other information including the prices of many other event contracts, be factored into models used for commercial forecasting or audience-demand analysis, which are economic questions." From: https://www.regulations.gov/document/CFTC-2026-1189-0001
Full text available here: https://www.stoppredatorygambling.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/2026-Stop-Predatory-Gambling-CFTC-Comments-7-22-26.pdf Or here: https://downloads.regulations.gov/CFTC-2026-1189-0113/attachment_1.pdf
"The study’s definition of “serious injury” for TLC crashes only includes injuries that required life-saving medical support. It then compares that TLC data to Waymo’s data, which uses a much more expansive definition of serious injury (‘KABCO’ which is used by NHTSA, NYS DOT and others, and includes things like broken bones) without attempting to control for this difference, which is how at arrived at this misleading conclusion."
"As of July 23, 2026, we have temporarily removed our safety analysis from this report, as well as relevant references to the analysis throughout the report (denoted in-text by a reference to this section). We were made aware of data discrepancies between City agency data for New York City for-hire vehicle crashes with serious injuries or deaths, as well as City agency data definitions related to such crashes. We are working to resolve these discrepancies and ensure our findings properly represent the data and the driving records of New York City for-hire vehicle drivers and Waymo vehicles. Other than this section, the remainder of our report remains unchanged."
Figure 2 from here: https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5e71380706dc865d40a6f93c/t/6a5a8f5f6ff6a5473092ee00/1784319839886/How+Would+For-Hire+AVs+Impact+NYC_SSTRP_Open+Plans.pdf Chart recreates data from Table 2.
Quote reads: " Initial data shows that Waymo vehicles are involved in fewer injury-causing crashes overall, but have a significantly higher rate of crashes with a serious injury or fatality than the existing New York City for-hire fleet. " But the data shows non-significant differences, i.e. not statistically significant for fatal and serious injuries. There's just not enough data to make that determination yet.
https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/813788 Figure 5. NHTSA has to estimate age from visual appearance, hence the massive bins.
Damaging or disrupting animal enterprises is a federal crime under the The Animal Enterprise Terrorism Act (AETA) of 2006 (18 U.S.C. § 43). Penalties include fines in excess of $1,000,000 and life imprisonment. Polymarket will cooperate fully with law enforcement in any investigation of interference. Polymarket reserves the right to void any market if there is credible evidence of coordinated manipulation or external interference with the gorilla or its enclosure. From: https://polymarket.com/event/will-little-joe-escape-again
Both are from https://osf.io/preprints/osf/bzkas_v1
Those 2,000 requests are just the tip of the iceberg, Howell told ProPublica in an interview. Howell, the executive director of the Oversight Project, estimated that his group had submitted more than 50,000 information requests over the past two years. He described the project as “the most prestigious international investigative operation in the world.” Among 744 requests that Aamot, Jankowski and Howell submitted to the Department of the Interior over the past year are 161 that seek civil servants’ emails and texts as well as Slack and Microsoft Teams messages that contained terms including “climate change”; “DEI,” or diversity, equity and inclusion; and “GOTV,” an acronym for get out the vote. Many of these FOIAs request the messages of individual employees by name.
USDOT FOIA statistics by agency, available at https://www.foia.gov/data.html
The Commission argues that prediction markets allow everyday Americans to hedge legitimate financial risks. In narrow circumstances, that may be true. But roughly 90% of prediction market volume flows through sports contracts. Whatever legitimate hedging use exists at the margins does not justify a regulatory regime built around it. If the hedging rationale is real, the Commission should be able to name who benefits and how. When Commission Chairman Michael Selig was asked how a regular person might use prediction markets for risk management, he said: “This is a real opportunity for everyday Americans to be able to manage certain risk. I do view this as something that democratizes access to our derivatives market. Say somebody has a condition. They want to be able to manage the potential risk of having a future treatment or medical costs. They can enter into a prediction market and place a bet on the likelihood of something passing a drug trial.”16 The Chairman is arguing, on the record, that people should bet on drug trials as a means to pay for treatment. This is shocking, dystopian, and inhumane. Worst of all, it is not even feasible. Drugs that fail their trials become losing bets, leaving a sick person poorer at the moment they can least afford it, unable to fund the next treatment. That this is the Commission’s best argument for everyday hedging demonstrates it is far removed from the reality of ordinary Americans.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/22/us/elections/virginia-redistricting-voter-data-election.html
From Kalshi PR today: " After running its investigation, the surveillance team used internal information obtained from the trader and open source intelligence to confirm that the identity of the trader was the same as the candidate."
https://news.kalshi.com/p/kalshi-political-insider-trading-enforcement-update
What are the biggest reasons pedestrian deaths have risen in the US? After digging into that question for years, I don’t think there is a smoking gun. The US situation is a perfect storm, with high-speed arterials, distraction from phones, and big SUVs. In Europe, roadways are much slower, which provides a level of protection. If you have a big SUV on a street where you’re driving 15 miles per hour and you hit someone, they’re not going to die. The same goes if you’re driving 15 mph and using a smartphone when you strike someone. But in the US, we don’t have those kinds of safeguards because our roads are faster. Also, there is a lot of evidence pointing to suburbanization of poverty being an important factor. Historically, poverty in the US was centralized in the urban core, but over the last couple of decades it has expanded to the suburbs, where around half of all poor people now live. But many suburbs are not built for walking, biking and public transportation; they’re built assuming everybody is going to drive. So now you have lower-income populations living there who might not have motor vehicles. They need to walk, and they’re doing it in a suburban setting that is not designed to accommodate them. From: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-14/what-s-really-driving-the-pedestrian-safety-crisis-in-us-cities
From the linked paper: "Terrorism futures would have two key differences from most financial markets. First, prediction markets are typically very thin compared with most financial markets, with relatively little money changing hands. All else equal, this makes them very poor places to speculate on sabotage. Second, financial markets are typically tied to large economic aggregates, which are hard for individuals to reliably influence. Terrorism futures markets, on the other hand, would trade on events that small groups of people could substantially influence. If terrorism futures markets remain very thin, we should not worry about funding terrorism. Police regularly pay informants small amounts to tell about crimes, even though informants are typically involved themselves in other crimes. While this provides a small subsidy to the criminal class, the information gained helps crime fighting and more than makes up for the small subsidy. We would happily pay a bank robber $10 to tell us where he will strike next. Paying a similar price for terrorism information could also be a good deal.
Two Former Congressmen Join Prediction Markets Lobbying Group Posted on: January 13, 2026, 01:29h. Last updated on: January 13, 2026, 01:38h. Avatar photo Todd Shriber @etfgodfather Expertise: Financial, Gaming Business, Mergers and Acquisitions. Democrat Patrick Maloney joining as president and CEO Republican Patrick McHenry on board as a senior advisor The Coalition for Prediction Markets (CPM), the newly formed lobbying group for that budding industry, said Tuesday that two former congressmen are joining the coalition. From: https://www.casino.org/news/two-former-congressmen-join-prediction-markets-lobbying-group/
Stephanie Cutter @stefcutter Excited to advise @Kalshi as they continue to dominate the prediction market space. They're one of the fastest growing companies in the US — and one of the rare tech platforms that take a regulatory first approach. From: https://x.com/stefcutter/status/2039791449554719031
Chart showing fatal crash counts and per-mile rates from 1995 to 2025, recreated from NHTSA data.
Should I personally invest in the account? Financial experts advise people considering opening a Trump Account to accept the government's $1,000 contribution — money is money, after all — but to think twice about putting in their own money. The reason: Other types of savings plans — such as a 529 plan, a tax-advantaged savings account for education expenses, or a custodial brokerage account, an investment account for a minor managed by an adult — can be more financially advantageous. "The gift is the biggest part of this. It really is free money," Madeline Brown, a wealth and financial policy expert at the Urban Institute, a nonpartisan think tank in Washington, D.C., told CBS News. "It's a nice perk for parents with children who qualified," added Kate Ashford, a wealth management specialist at personal finance company NerdWallet. "But it's not a slam dunk, and it's not going to do as much for you as other accounts." She cited the accounts' contribution caps and more limited investment tax advantages as drawbacks compared to 529s or custodial brokerage accounts. (all screenshots from: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-accounts-kids-explained/ )
Chart showing percentage of fatal crashes between 2019 and 2023 where the driver with the highest BAC was a) 0.00 or b) greater than or equal to 0.08. Pulled from NHTSA's FARS database.
“This is a real opportunity for everyday Americans to be able to manage certain risk,” Selig said. “I do view this as something that democratizes access to our derivatives market.” Here’s the example Selig posed to us: “Say somebody has a condition. They want to be able to manage the potential risk of having a future treatment or medical costs. They can enter into a prediction market and place a bet on the likelihood of something passing a drug trial.” From: https://punchbowl.news/article/vault/prediction-markets-cftc-champion/
Coplan acknowledged the controversy but argued prediction markets provide real-world utility in high-stakes situations. “When I get hit up by people in the Middle East who are saying, ‘Hey, we’re looking at Polymarket to decide whether we sleep near the bomb shelter; we look at it every day’ and I’m like, ‘Oh, it’s really that popular over there?’” he added. “That’s very powerful. That’s an undeniable value proposition that did not exist before.” From: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-07/polymarket-founder-says-war-bets-are-facing-growing-resistance
Their "issues" page which has specifics for every topic except consumer safety where they have the default latin gibberish. https://www.caseforconsumers.org/issues/
Logo of the American Museum of Tort Law that shows a cartoon Ford Pinto in flames.
Payout Criterion: The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states after Issuance and before <date> that extraterrestrial life or technology exists. For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President’s Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP.
New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets on Bloomberg's Odd Lots podcast. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/new-cftc-chairman-michael-selig-on-how-to-regulate/id1056200096?i=1000749404730
Table 9 from a Waymo paper looking at benchmarking ADS crash rates using public crash records. Depending on the method used, and converting incidents per million miles to miles between incidents gives around 50,000 to 100,000 miles between incidents as a better (although still flawed) benchmark.
Cleveland at Orlando NBA player point total prop bets. Taken from here: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnbagame/professional-basketball-game/kxnbagame-26jan24cleorl
"The sentencing disparities for certain crimes are shocking; roughly four out of every five people who are convicted of statutory rape are Native American."
"During a trip interruption, the Waymo AV may request additional context about the circumstances from Remote Assistance. Depending on the nature of the request, assistance is designed to be provided quickly - in a matter of seconds - to help get the Waymo AV on its way with minimal delay. For a majority of requests that the Waymo AV makes during everyday driving, the Waymo AV is able to proceed driving autonomously on its own. In very limited circumstances such as to facilitate movement of the AV out of a freeway lane onto an adjacent shoulder, if possible, our Event Response agents are able to remotely move the Waymo AV under strict parameters, including at a very low speed over a very short distance."
Text from linked article, says: "Waymo confirmed that some self-driving supervisors are based in the Philippines and said they all have local licences and have been thoroughly vetted. A spokesman added that their role was not to drive cars but “provide contextual input” to the car when needed, for example advising how to handle unusual traffic cones."