Owen

@oweninvan.bsky.social

1386 Followers 1892 Following

The best laid schemes o' Mice an' Men gang aft agley, an' lea'e us nought but grief an' pain, for promis'd joy! Vancouver, BC

Pew.org research shows rents dropped fastest for old unrenovated suites.
https://www.pew.org/en/research-and-analysis/articles/2025/07/31/new-housing-slows-rent-growth-most-for-older-more-affordable-units
SEAN ORR @seanorr.bsky.social. 49m Remember as your eyes burn from the smoke today, Ken Sim and ABC voted to allow fracked gas in new builds, cancelled $8 million in climate retrofit grants; voted against funding for cooling kits for people in the Downtown Eastside; and got rid of the climate justice charter. 2 9 28
Cat with a White Claw toy
Ships on 70mm IMAX screen
Brutal stock screen Morgan Stanley head of research Katy Huberty marketed a software stock screen that brutally narrowed the sector down to five companies, “We introduce a ‘Moat & Journey’ framework that evaluates US Software companies on the durability of their current competitive position (their Moat) and the effort required to succeed in an AI-native, agentic and consumption-driven environment (their Journey). Only five companies (out of the 81 under coverage) rank in the Top 15 across both Moat and Journey: Microsoft (MSFT, $381.70), Palo Alto Networks (PANW, $323.79), CrowdStrike (CRWD, $183.28), Shopify (SHOP, $113.75), and ServiceNow (NOW, $98.78). We rate all 5 Overweight”.
We're talking about a crash that will put 2008 in the shade and meet or exceed the pandemic sell-offf." Doctorow's arguments are persuasive and oddly cheering. We will be rescued from the AI apocalypse by the collapse of Al and the global economy. Our pension funds may be lost in the rubble, but the oligarchs and their purchased politicians will face a crisis far worse than, say, the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. Their credibility and power will evaporate with their wealth. Their data centres will go dark, or never be built at all.
Mayor Ken Sim • @KenSimCity • 1h At tonight's public hearing, there were numerous individuals obstructing Council business. It is clear that this is foreign interference. Only those affected by land use decisions should speak before Council, not those calling in from Southern California. We will be reporting this immediately to the appropriate authorities for a proper investigation. I have organized an emergency meeting with the City Manager, VPD Chief Steve Rai and other relevant officials to discuss immediate actions to protect our democratic institutions.
CMHC apartment starts for metro Vancouver are much higher than 10 years ago.
New row home unsold inventory has reached a record high (at least since 1990)
Forestry product exports dropped everywhere but many other products shipped less to the US and more elsewhere.
Comparison of Tesla, Toyota and Ford by vehicle sales and market cap. Tesla way ahead on market cap but not production.
Super Hardwick stops the family from leaving the SkyTrain car in Vancouver to protect the house owners from neighbourhood change
SuperHardwick defends retirees from the hordes of children. Towers in the background because that's all the LLM (or anyone) can think of when you ask it to render Vancouver.
Metro Van housing starts
housing starts in Surrey have fallen significantly since 2023.
Canada's government debt-to-GDP is rising in gross terms but stable at around 40% in net terms (excluding CPP/QPP, which would push it even lower)
https://thehub.ca/2026/04/20/at-103-percent-of-gdp-canadian-households-have-the-most-debt-in-the-g7/
Inflation adjusted price of Brent crude
Growth rates in spending are highest for Health/Social/Housing - 74% Dev Services - 39% Sewer Services - 19% Protective Services - 18% General Gov - 15%
Why the BoC’s next move will be to cut rates, sending the loonie to 65 US cents - Rosenberg's opinion
35 years ago, Poland and Iran had similar standards of living. Now, Poland is about to pass Japan in GDP per capita. How do we create more Polands?
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/population-drop-first-quarter-2026-9.7238364
Site C is almost worth the cost under 100% non-emitting AB & BC policies, but otherwise much less so.
https://economics.td.com/domains/economics.td.com/documents/reports/rs/CA_GVA_Condo_Market_Outlook.pdf
https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/observer/2026/2026-mid-year-rental-market-update
https://research.berenberg.com/report/C9FE03AE407DDED3C1A8FBD62611D991?cs=5&sb_userid=213897344&sb_eventid=559002
Sequels, remakes, spinoffs, etc. are approaching 80% of top 20 movies by revenue, used to be 25% pre-2000.
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aec7671
Brad Newman-Bennett @newbyjr Top of market you could pay $200/ buildable on the west side. 33’x130’ lot with 1.75 FSR at $200 = $1.6 million. About $1.4 million less than as an existing SFH. And that was at the top. A lot less now. The villages plan is not based on any sort of feasible reality. https://x.com/newbyjr/status/2063763961481511328
Stock markets tend to peak about 7 months after large IPOs
• When upzoning is relatively small or narrowly targeted, housing supply responses may be less effective. A Chicago
Per person, bike lanes created an additional cost of $2.79 and a gain of .0022 quality-adjusted life years, according to the results published in Injury Prevention. For bike lanes the cost per QALY is $1,300, a little bit higher than vaccines but way lower than most medical interventions that we have in healthcare," Mohit said. "We're finding more and more of these social interventions are not directly medically related but have an extremely positive effect on giving us more life years."
In Defense of the NIMBYs l've always been an apartment-loving YIMBY: build, build, build. But over the last few months I've been coming to understand the other side. YIMBYism is a half-moral, half-economic view that says it's good to build housing: you can allow more people to live in that place, and bring rents down. Those things are good. But to what end? "Build more" is not really a coherent operating principle because it doesn't terminate. People want to live in Malibu: so you add 10,000 housing units. But why only 10,000? There are still far more people who want to live there. You want to upzone SF, and you say "just a little bit, it won't be like Manhattan" yet even Manhattan has relentless demand and YIMBYs want to upzone it further.
Sales ratio was 14% for apartments (condos) and 15% for townhouses. via @eresc79.bsky.social
"END GAME 2026 - CITY HALL WATCH"
Sales to active listings have been around 1 to 1.5 standard deviations below normal since early 2025.
Condos in Calgary are drastically more affordable than condos in Vancouver or Toronto.
Chart of LTPZ and TLT ETFs over the last 5 years
SPCX Highlights of $1.75 trillion company: - 2025 sales $18.7 bn 2025 operating loss $2.6 bn 1Q26 sales $4.7 bn 1Q26 operating loss $1.9 bn You are cordially invited to take out 2nd mortgage and buy on margin at 93x 2025 sales. S-1 filing: sec.gov/Archives/edgar... Statements of Operations Data: Three Months Ended March 31. 2026 2025 2025 Year Ended December 31, 2024 2023 (in millions, except per share data) Revenue (unaudited) S 4.694 $ 4,067 $ 18,674 $ 14.015 $ 10,387 Total costs and expenses 6,637 4,040 21,263 13,549 13,892 Income (loss) from operations (1,943) 27 (2,589) 466 (3,505) Net income (loss) S (4,276) $ (528) $ (4,937) $ 791 $ (4,628) Net income (loss) per share of common stock attributable to common shareholders (1) Basic S (1.27) $ (0.18) $ (1.69) $ 0.01 $ (1.68) Diluted S (1.27) $ (0.18) $ (1.69) $ 0.00 $ (1.68) Weighted average shares used in computing net income (loss) per share of common stock (1) Basic 3,8
Date VanCY Perms, VanCy Starts, Rest Perms, Rest Starts, past 12 months moving window Jan/25 6,396 6,819 23,820 21,837 Feb/25 6,455 6,642 23,895 20,710 Mar/25 8,234 6,736 27,691 18,583 Apr/25 6,663 6,501 22,159 18,990 May/25 7,498 6,352 22,711 18,941 Jun/25 7,486 6,258 23,154 20,347 Jul/25 7,672 6,611 22,871 20,586 Aug/25 7,401 6,793 23,473 21,204 Sep/25 7,914 6,909 23,508 21,073 Oct/25 8,078 6,802 22,848 20,267 Nov/25 7,983 6,721 23,912 20,053 Dec/25 8,164 6,640 22,188 20,545 Jan/26 8,455 6,499 20,550 21,428 Feb/26 9,125 6,365 19,408 22,399 Mar/26 6,213 22,844 Apr/26 6,004 22,126
As of February 2026, the year-to-date number of planned residential units in B.C.’s CMAs decreased by 23.5%. In alignment with the broader provincial trend, the number of row (-77.6%), single (-31.4%), and apartment (-13.1%) units decreased while the number of planned double units (+86.7%) increased. Nanaimo had the largest total relative increase in planned units (+832.4%), followed by Kamloops (+366.7%), Kelowna (+34.4%), Chilliwack (+33.1%), and Abbotsford-Mission (+29.8%). At the same time, planned units decreased in Vancouver (-38.9%) and in Victoria (-20.8%). In Vancouver, where most building activity takes place, the number of planned row (-83.7%), ingle (-41.5%), and apartment (-30.8%) units decreased also in alignment with the broader provincial trend, while the number of planned double (+80.0%) units increased.
10.1.1 MIAA Policy Summary Table Policy Area Mount Pleasant Industrial Area - Area A MIAA Uses Industrial, office, service/retail, cultural, institutional Option/Tenure 1/3 Industrial option 1/2 Industrial option Max. Height 30.5 m (100 ft.); 4-7 storeys 46.5 m (152.5 ft.); 8-11 storeys Max. Density 4.5 FSR 6.0 FSR Min. Frontage N/A 45.7 m (150 ft.) Notes • A minimum of 1/3 of the floor area must be industrial uses. • The first floor industrial uses must be dedicated to traditional production, distribution and repair (PDR) uses. • The I-1 zoning was amended to facilitate this development option. A rezoning application is not necessary and applicants may proceed through the development permit application process. See Land Use (Chapter 7) for more details. • A minimum of 50% (3.0 FS) of floor area must be industrial uses, e.g. bio-tech laboratories or other stacked industrial forms. • See Land Use (Chapter 7) for cases where lesser site frontage may be considered at the discretion of the Director of Planning. See Policy 10.1.7 for the approach to mixed-use hotel and light industrial development site frontages.
Subsequent 10 year returns at Dec 2025's forward P/E ratio have historically been between ~+3%/year and -3%/year.
Time to break out the fuel crisis clothing Leather outfit and metal mask from mad max
"It is possible that these coming updates will be of greater scope than in past years, given recent and rapidly evolving changes to government policies regarding international migration," reads a release.
Completed Minesweeper game in the shape of the strait of Hormuz
Vancouver Sun: "B.C.'s construction and real estate sectors lose thousands of jobs"