Oyster Analytics

@oysteranalytics.bsky.social

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Two former college ballplayers modeling the next generation of MLB Talent. Check out our website, with all of our predictions: https://oysteranalytics.com/

Bar chart titled "2026 MLB Organizational Records" with the subtitle "Combined MLB + MiLB | as of July 17, 2026." Organizations are ranked from lowest to highest combined winning percentage.

From left to right: New York Mets (249–318), Boston Red Sox (251–303), Oakland Athletics (244–286), Baltimore Orioles (263–300), Minnesota Twins (247–280), Chicago White Sox (252–284), San Diego Padres (272–297), Detroit Tigers (271–295), Philadelphia Phillies (260–279), Kansas City Royals (272–290), Arizona Diamondbacks (277–294), Toronto Blue Jays (279–289), Atlanta Braves (258–267), Miami Marlins (276–284), Cincinnati Reds (280–284), Pittsburgh Pirates (281–285), Houston Astros (278–281), Chicago Cubs (280–278), St. Louis Cardinals (265–260), Los Angeles Angels (271–265), Seattle Mariners (274–266), Cleveland Guardians (288–279), Texas Rangers (290–278), Colorado Rockies (297–273), Washington Nationals (276–253), New York Yankees (299–265), Los Angeles Dodgers (315–251), San Francisco Giants (318–247), Milwaukee Brewers (315–243), and Tampa Bay Rays (319–243), who lead all organizations.

Jacob Gonzalez’s player card: 63% contributor, 48% regular, 22% star.

Christian Cerda grounds out on a check swing.

Kyler Fedko prospect card for Minnesota Twins outfielder/first baseman Kyler Fedko. Ranked No. 142 overall and No. 9 in the Twins system. Career outcome projections show a 41% chance of becoming a contributor, 24% chance of developing into a regular, and 4% chance of reaching star status. Relative metrics highlight above-average discipline (0.98 SD), home run power (1.13 SD), and lift ability (0.87 SD), with average contact skills and slightly below-average development speed, gap power, and strikeout avoidance. Comparable player: Blake Perkins (2022).

Player card for Braden Montgomery, a center fielder in the Chicago White Sox organization. Montgomery is ranked as the No. 195 overall prospect and the No. 6 prospect in the White Sox system. The card shows a projected 22% chance of becoming an MLB contributor, 17% chance of reaching regular status, and 10% chance of developing into a star player. Relative tool grades compared to league average highlight strong gap power (+1.24 SD), above-average contact (+0.93), discipline (+0.63), and development speed (+0.60). Home run power rates slightly above average (+0.46), while strikeout avoidance (-0.18) and lift ability (-0.09) grade below average. His closest statistical comparison is Jake Meyers' 2019 season. A confidence meter at the bottom indicates a high level of confidence in the projection.

Oyster Analytics prospect card for Seattle Mariners shortstop Colt Emerson. Emerson is ranked as the No. 7 overall prospect and the No. 1 prospect in Seattle's system. The card shows extremely high projected MLB outcomes, with a 99% chance of becoming a contributor, 99% chance of becoming a regular, and 93% chance of reaching star status. Relative skill metrics compared to league average highlight elite developmental speed (+2.2 standard deviations), along with above-average discipline (+0.32), strikeout avoidance (+0.95), contact ability (+0.82), and gap power (+0.69). Home run power grades slightly above average (+0.12), while lift is slightly below average (-0.17). A career outcome chart displays strong probabilities of achieving between 3 and 4+ prime WAR per season, supported by a high confidence meter. The listed player comparison is Daniel Robertson (2015).

Prospect card for Cincinnati Reds shortstop Edwin Arroyo. Arroyo is ranked as the No. 37 overall prospect and the No. 1 prospect in the Reds system. Career outcome projections show an 84% chance of becoming a contributor, 69% chance of becoming a regular, and 49% chance of becoming a star. Relative skill grades versus league average highlight plus developmental speed (+1.46 SD), contact (+1.33), and strikeout avoidance (+0.94), with average gap power (+0.31), modest lift (+0.52), below-average plate discipline (-0.96), and near-average home run power (-0.04). The confidence meter is high, and his statistical comparison is Kevin Newman’s 2017 season.

Prospect card for Colt Emerson, shortstop in the Seattle Mariners system. Emerson is ranked No. 6 overall and No. 1 in Seattle’s farm system. Outcome probabilities show 99% contributor, 99% regular, and 94% star odds. Relative tools versus league average: developing speed (+2.1 SD) stands out as the top trait, with above-average contact (+0.50), gap power (+0.55), home run power (+0.36), and strikeout avoidance (+0.24). Plate discipline is roughly average (+0.01), while lift is below average (-0.48). Career comparison listed as Daniel Robertson, 2014. Confidence meter appears near maximum.

Prospect card for Kaelen Culpepper, shortstop in the Minnesota Twins organization, ranked No. 192 overall and No. 10 in the system. Projection gives him a 28% chance to become an MLB contributor, 16% chance to become a regular, and 2% chance to become a star. Relative offensive traits versus league average show strong developing speed (+0.86), above-average strikeout avoidance (+0.73), contact (+0.52), and home run power (+0.96), with roughly average discipline (-0.07), below-average gap power (-0.50), and slightly below-average lift (-0.37). Career outcome distribution centers around 0–1 WAR seasons, with player comp listed as Willi Castro, 2017.

Prospect card for Jesus Made, shortstop in the Milwaukee Brewers system. Ranked #11 overall and the top Milwaukee Brewers prospect. Model projects a 92% chance of becoming a contributor, 91% chance of becoming a regular, and 85% chance of becoming a star. Relative offensive traits show elite development speed (+2.2 SD), with above-average discipline (+0.21), contact (+0.78), strikeout avoidance (+0.76), and gap power (+0.60), while home run power (-0.44) and lift (-0.60) currently lag. Player comp listed as Royce Lewis, 2018.

Prospect card for Devin Fitzgerald, shortstop in the Washington Nationals system. Ranked No. 46 overall and the No. 1 Washington prospect. Projection model gives him a 68% chance to become an MLB contributor, 66% chance to become a regular, and 32% chance to become a star. Relative tools show above-average speed (1.14), discipline (0.94), contact (1.22), strikeout avoidance (1.31), average gap power (1.00), standout home run power (1.83), and below-average lift (0.20), all measured in standard deviations from league average. Career comparison listed as Corey Seager.

Prospect card for Spencer Jones, center fielder in the Yankees system. Ranked #145 overall and the #3 Yankees prospect by Oyster Analytics. Career outcome projections show a 24% chance to become a Contributor, 20% chance to become a Regular, and 11% chance to become a Star. Relative tools show above-average development speed (+0.44), discipline (+0.22), contact (+0.35), gap power (+0.07), elite home run power (+2.70), and strong lift (+2.10), with below-average strikeout avoidance (-1.67). Prime WAR distribution peaks around 0–1 WAR with smaller upside outcomes reaching 3+ WAR. MLB statistical comp listed as Brett Phillips, 2016.

Caleb Bonemer prospect card from Oyster Baseball, showing the Chicago White Sox shortstop ranked #31 overall and #2 in the White Sox system. Bonemer carries a 64% contributor probability, 62% regular probability, and 59% star probability. Relative offensive traits compared to league average show strong developmental speed (1.32 SD), discipline (0.79), contact ability (0.63), gap power (1.41), plus home run power (about 2.0), and lift ability (1.17), with slightly below-average strikeout avoidance (-0.09). Career outcome distribution is visualized by projected peak WAR outcomes, with a player comp listed as Trevor Story, 2012 version.

Prospect card for Angel Genao, SS (CLE). Header lists career outcome probabilities of 52% Contributor, 45% Regular, and 8% Star, with Genao ranked #75 overall and #5 in Cleveland’s system. Left panel shows relative tools measured in standard deviations from league average: Development Speed +1.14, Plate Discipline +0.88, Avoid K +1.11, Contact +0.49, Gap Power +0.17, Home Run Power -0.41, and Lift -0.60. Right panel displays a probability distribution of prime WAR per season, with benchmark lines for Contributor, Regular, and Star outcomes. Confidence meter appears moderately high. Player comparison listed as Joey Ortiz, 2022.

Prospect player card for Leo De Vries, shortstop in the Athletics organization. Header lists elite projection marks: 99% chance to become a contributor, 99% chance to become a regular, and 97% chance to become a star. The card ranks him as the #1 overall prospect and the #1 Athletics prospect.

Left panel shows relative tools measured in standard deviations from league average: Development Speed +2.59, Discipline +0.35, Avoid Strikeouts +0.39, Contact +0.58, Gap Power +0.42, Home Run Power +0.81, and Lift +0.51. Development speed stands out as the clear carrying tool.

Right panel displays career outcome probabilities across prime WAR per season thresholds, with near-certain odds through contributor, regular, and star benchmarks before tapering at higher WAR levels. Confidence meter at the bottom is in the high-confidence range. Historical comp listed as Yu Chang, 2016.

Yophery Rodriguez prospect card for BOS (LF/CF), ranked No. 17 overall and No. 1 in the Red Sox system.

Left panel shows relative tools vs. league average: plus development speed (1.87) and gap power (1.22) stand out, with solid avoid-K ability (0.77) and lift (0.55). Contact (0.30) and HR power (0.20) are slightly above average, while plate discipline is a bit below (-0.23).

Right panel shows career outcome probabilities: 85% chance to reach contributor level, 83% regular, and 76% star. Distribution tapers into higher WAR outcomes, with a moderate confidence meter.

Overall comp listed as Franmil Reyes (2016).

Greater Nevada Field as it gets dark. Go Aces!

Screenshot of an “ABS Challenge Dashboard” designed to evaluate whether a team should challenge a called pitch. The interface shows game context on the left (batter role, 9th inning, bottom half, down 1 run, runner on 2nd, 2 outs, 3–2 count, 1 challenge remaining) and pitch location inputs. The center panel displays a heatmap of strike probability around the strike zone from the catcher’s perspective, with a selected pitch located just below the bottom edge of the zone. The right panel labels the decision “GOOD CHALLENGE,” noting the pitch is called a strike only 15.3% of the time, implying an 84.7% chance it was actually a ball. The break-even threshold for the situation is 1.0%, giving a margin of +83.6 percentage points in favor of challenging.

A baseball analytics graphic for Kevin McGonigle. Left panel shows a photo of McGonigle batting, with labels indicating projected outcomes: Contributor 81%, Regular 78%, Star 31%, plus a partially filled “Confidence Meter.” Right panel displays relative statistics as vertical bars compared to league average: rAge 1.13, rBB 1.42, rK 2.87 (highlighted in dark green), rHR 0.84, rXBH 1.27, and r1B 1.30. Bottom panel shows a downward-sloping line chart titled “Career Outcome Probabilities,” plotting probability of achieving versus future average WAR per season, starting near 80% at low WAR and declining toward 0% around 5 WAR. Small note defines Contributor, Regular, and Star WAR thresholds.

The gold curve shows the Dodgers without Kyle Tucker vs. RHP, centered at 5.66 runs per nine. The blue curve shows the lineup with Tucker, shifted sharply to the right and centered at 5.96. The dashed lines mark those means, and the separation between the two distributions is wider than in the LHP case.

International Amateur Signings (2017–2019), Ranked by Signing Bonus

This table summarizes the largest international amateur signings from 2017–2019, ordered by bonus size, and pairs each investment with early MLB return. Jasson Domínguez (Yankees) leads the group with a $5.1M bonus and has already produced 0.9 MLB WAR, while Francisco Álvarez (Mets) stands out as the most productive player on the list, delivering 5.5 MLB WAR after signing for $2.7M in 2018.

Most other high-bonus signees from this period—including Robert Puason, Bayron Lora, Orelvis Martinez, and Marco Luciano—have yet to record MLB WAR, underscoring the volatility and long development timelines typical of the international market. Countries most represented include the Dominican Republic and Venezuela, with shortstop and outfield being the most common positions at signing.

Overall, the table highlights both the upside and risk of international amateur investments: massive bonuses can yield star-level returns, but even top-of-market signings often produce little or no MLB value within their first several professional years.

Jadher Areinamo sprints to first.

Luis Peña’s Oyster card, 99% contributor, 98% regular, 24% star!

Merry Christmas from Down on the Farm and Oyster Analytics!

Christian Cerda in his catcher's gear, ready for battle.

Oyster Analytics prospect card for Brennen Davis (Free Agent).
Contributor chance: 63%.
Regular chance: 38%.
Star chance: 15%.
Ranked #92 overall and #1 among free agents.

Relative Statistics (standard deviations from league average):

Developmental Speed: 0.00

Discipline: +0.06

Avoid K: –0.61

Contact: –0.21

Gap Power: –0.92

Home Run Power: +3.02 (his standout tool)

Lift: +1.65

Career Outcome Probabilities:
A bar chart shows strong chances of being a contributor, modest regular upside, and a small but real star path driven by elite power. Most probability is concentrated between 0.5 and 1.5 WAR per season.

Player Comp: Cody Decker (2012).
Confidence Meter: Medium-high confidence, shaded mostly green.

Judge and Stanton hit an excited jumping high five in their home jerseys!

Oyster Analytics prospect card for Angel Genao (CLE).
Contributor probability: 80%.
Regular probability: 80%.
Star probability: 5%.

Relative Stats (all shown as standard deviations from league average):

Developmental Speed: +1.15

Discipline: –0.48

Avoid K: +1.22

Contact: +1.31

Gap Power: +1.18

Home Run Power: –0.24

Lift: –0.27

Career Outcome Probabilities:
A long bar chart shows extremely high odds of becoming at least a contributor or regular, with steep drop-offs after the 1–2 WAR range. Star outcomes (2.5+ WAR seasons) are possible but unlikely.

Player Comp: Ryan Howard (2018 version).

Side-by-side Oyster Analytics comparison card for shortstops Leo De Vries (Athletics) and Sebastian Walcott (Rangers). At the top, both show extremely strong model projections: De Vries with a 99% chance to be a Contributor, 98% Regular, and 91% Star; Walcott at 98% Contributor, 98% Regular, and 93% Star.

Center radar chart compares relative stats in standard deviations from league average. De Vries (green outline) is ahead in Development Speed, Lift, Home-run Power, and Gap Power, sitting well above average on all four. Walcott (red outline) has the edge in Contact and slightly better plate discipline/strikeout avoidance, with his polygon sticking farther out on those axes. Both are comfortably above average almost everywhere, with no glaring holes.

Bottom line chart shows career outcome probabilities vs prime WAR per season. The green line for De Vries stays above the red line for Walcott at nearly every WAR level: both are near 100% to clear replacement level, but De Vries carries noticeably higher odds of becoming a 3+ WAR and especially 4+ WAR regular, while Walcott’s curve sits a bit lower at the very top end.