Paul Graf

@paulginva.bsky.social

4807 Followers 1756 Following

Retired lawyer. Moderate. Dog lover, cat tolerator. Grandfather. Vietnam vet. History, international relations, national security, high-profile litigation, economics, and a little politics.

The displayed headline indicates a Military Watch Magazine article from July 21, 2026, alleging European selection of the Soviet-era 5V55 missile for air defense modernization. The article discusses the S-300P system, noting its development began in 1967 to replace older SAM systems. While the headline claims a new selection, historical context shows many European nations already possessed or considered transferring these Soviet-made systems.
This post from Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders declares that Sharia law will not replace Arkansas state law. The image is a social media graphic featuring a stark white text overlay on a red background. It emphasizes a "Period." to underline the firm stance taken on this issue. The post garnered significant interaction, including 4.8K likes and hundreds of comments and shares.
As of July 12, 2026, the National Science Foundation (NSF) has awarded 2,470 new grants for the fiscal year. This number indicates a significant decrease in the pace of grant making compared to previous years. The decline is projected to reduce opportunities for basic research and future innovation. The graph highlights that despite funding appropriations, the actual awarding of grants has slowed dramatically.
SpaceX (SPCX) shares have experienced significant volatility following their June 12 IPO, initially surging before declining sharply to $115.26 as of July 22, 2026. The stock has dropped over 28% year-to-date and recently fell to an all-time low, dipping well below its initial $135 IPO price. Market analysts suggest that SpaceX's valuation is heavily influenced by technical milestones, such as the scheduled 13th test flight of its Starship rocket.
Based on the provided chart, Economics has the highest replication success rate, with approximately 71% of replication attempts being "Precisely reproduced" (represented by the dark blue bar segment). Combined with the "Approximately reproduced" light blue segment, it achieves a total reproduction success rate of roughly 77%. Education, by contrast, had zero papers that were "precisely reproduced" and 50% that were "approximately reproduced".
The image shows a search query asking "how many days of the week have poop in it". An AI overview suggests "Only 1 day" has it, incorrectly identifying that day as Wednesday by misspelling it as "Wednespoop". Other search results show similar AI errors, with one erroneously claiming Thursday contains the word "poop" as "Thurspoop". These results highlight common accuracy issues with AI-generated text overviews when handling character-based questions.
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump MAGA CANDIDATES WON EVERYTHING LAST NIGHT IN ARIZONA, A COMPLETE SWEEP!!! I WON ARIZONA 18 MONTHS AGO. THE DUMOCRATS ARE DUMBFOUNDED. AFTER DECADES, ARIZONA IS BECOMING A REPUBLICAN STATE. CONGRATULATIONS TO ALL! President DONALD J. TRUMP 1.01k ReTruths 4.26k Likes 7/22/26, 8:31 AM
Meaghan Mobbs @mobbs_mentality. 5h Worst advice imaginable. It takes extraordinary courage to admit you were wrong, especially in public. @LauraLoomer has done exactly that. It takes even more conviction to spend your own political capital trying to help others see what you now believe to be true. She's doing that too. This is deeply personal for me. I was MAGA in 2016. I worked for President Trump in 2020. I proudly voted for him again in 2024. I've traveled to Ukraine more than 30 times since 2022. And I watched my father endure years of vicious, dishonest attacks because he refused to lie about Russia to a man he had loyally served since 2015. Very few people in Trump 47 can honestly say they've stood with President Trump that long. My father and I saw the Russian threat clearly. Russia's information machine, amplified by anti-American voices like Tucker Carlson, worked relentlessly to discredit him and distort President Trump's understanding of Russia and Ukraine. So yes, Laura changing her position is a significant development. It should be welcomed, not mocked. If your real priority is defeating Russia's influence and protecting America and the West's interests, you should celebrate people who are willing to change their minds when confronted with evidence - not punish them for it. One path builds a coalition, and we desperately need one. The danger posed by Russia and the broader axis aligned against the West is growing, not shrinking. This is the time to bring more people into the fight, not drive them away. Anonymous @YourAnonCentral. 20h If you are in Ukraine be careful about speaking to Laura Loomer, do not grant her any interviews if possible, nor spend any time alone with her without someone else with you or aware of where you are or the conversation. Record every interaction; don't provide damaging content.
Laura Loomer @Laura Loomer. 1h Just experienced my first air raid in Ukraine. Sirens blaring. This is everyday for every Ukrainian. I feel like such an asshole for minimizing the struggle of Ukrainians for the last 5 years. I often said I don't care. Looking back, that wasn't very nice of me to say. There are people in Ukraine who have to run to a bomb shelter everyday and some of us had the audacity to say Russia wasn't wrong because we believed the lie that Ukraine is a country full of Nazi sympathizers. We have been so propagandized by Russia and we don't even realize it. Air sirens could very well be the future of America if we don't start demanding our lawmakers crack down on communism and multipolarity. We won't have Trump forever and the axis of evil is moving fast.
Laura Loomer @LauraLoomer. 4h * Russia Targets American Businesses in Kyiv: Iconic McDonald's Endures Repeated Attacks From Russian Ballistic Missiles Proving Russia's Disdain For America 3 days ago, Russia launched 40 ballistic missiles into Kyiv, Ukraine, striking civilian districts in the Ukrainian capital, and the oldest @McDonalds in Ukraine, underscoring the human and symbolic cost of Moscow's war. The McDonalds in Kyiv, Ukraine's very first, opened in 1997, has become one of the most resilient symbols of defiance during the war. The restaurant has sustained damage at least seven times since the full-scale invasion began, most recently from blast waves during a massive strike on May 24, 2026, its 29th anniversary. Workers sheltered safely, and despite the structural damage and holes in the building from shrapnel, the restaurant opened days later. McDonald's represents one of the most recognizable American brands globally, and it has come to be known as a symbol for U.S. entrepreneurship, fast service, and consumer culture. Its golden arches stand as a post-Soviet emblem of openness enness and Western integration in Ukraine. In stark contrast, McDonald's no longer operates under its name in Russia after exiting the market in 2022 amid US sanctions and widespread condemnation of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Across Ukraine, American and Western businesses, alongside countless local enterprises, have been damaged or destroyed by Russian strikes on cities far from the front lines. Malls, supermarkets, offices, and restaurants have all been caught in the crossfire of Russian ballistic missiles, drones, and glide bombs targeting civilian infrastructure. These attacks on ordinary gathering places, where families eat, students meet, and workers grab quick meals, sends a clear message. Russia is not an ally of the United States or the West. By striking symbols of Western presence and normal civilian life, and by firing at American businesses, Moscow demonstrates …
Based on the text in the image, here are some historical context points: Soviet Space Milestone: The USSR launched Yuri Gagarin into space on April 12, 1961, making him the first human to orbit the Earth. U.S. Marriage Rights: Interracial marriage was not legalized nationwide in the United States until the Supreme Court ruling in Loving v. Virginia on June 12, 1967. Scientific Recognition: The image likely depicts Dr. George R. Carruthers, a distinguished Black engineer and astrophysicist who invented the first successful ultraviolet telescope used during the Apollo 16 mission.
This is a vintage 1949 advertisement for "Tex Smith's Famous A-B-C Method" for learning to play the harmonica. The package offered a "jam-packed" songbook and a fine 10-hole harmonica for $1.69. The advertisement promises the ability to play popular tunes in just 5 minutes using the included method.
RELEASE IMMEDIATE RELEASE DOW Identifies Army Casualties July 20, 2026 | The Department of War announced the death of two active-duty Soldiers who were supporting Operation Inherent Resolve. 1st Lt. Tyler James Feehan, 25, of Ewa Beach, Hawaii was killed in action on July 18, 2026, and Pvt. Isabella Gonzales, 19, of Carrollton, Texas, was killed in action on July 17, 2026, during an enemy attack on July 17, 2026, at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, Jordan. The incident is under investigation. 1st Lt. Feehan was assigned to 2nd Battalion, 55th Air Defense Artillery Regiment, 32nd Army Air Missile Defense Command, Fort Bragg, North Carolina. Pvt. Gonzales was assigned to 1st Battalion, 57th Air Defense Artillery Regiment, 52nd Air Defense Artillery Brigade, 10th Army Air Missile Defense Command, Ansbach, Germany. For more information regarding 1st Lt. Tyler James Feehan and Pvt. Isabella Gonzales, members of the media may contact U.S. Army Europe and Africa Command at media@army.mil.
This image shows a novelty jumbo coffee mug, likely similar to the 160-ounce "World's Largest Coffee Cup". Capacity: These giant porcelain mugs can hold up to 1.5 gallons or roughly 20 standard cups of coffee. Purpose: They are typically sold as humorous novelty gifts rather than for practical daily use. Safety: Sellers often include disclaimers advising users to consult a physician before attempting to drink from them. CAPTION: What is this too much coffee you speak of??
SATIRE President Donald Trump appears to be presenting a compact window air conditioner unit, similar to models like the RecPro CL 5,000 BTU. The unit features a white exterior with a louvered front grille and digital controls. It typically includes an IR remote control and mounting kit for installation.Units of this size generally cool small rooms up to 150-250 sq. ft..
Protect Paws: The man used a wheeled cooler to protect his dog's paws from pavement that can reach temperatures upward of 150°F (65°C). Heat Safety: This creative solution prevents serious burns to dog paw pads during extreme summer heat in Arizona. Preventative Measures: Beyond coolers, other methods to protect pets include using specialized dog booties or walking only during early mornings and evenings. Viral Response: This incident, occurring in July 2026, garnered significant praise on social media platforms like Facebook and Instagram for responsible pet ownership.
Gianni Infantino carefully explains to Donald Trump that he is not part of the spanish national team. Photograph: Javier García/Shutterstock
This image shows Andrew Tate on the left side, who is a famous online personality known for his controversial views, and the right side compares his outfit to a woman wearing similar clothing from the Asda George brand. Andrew Tate is a former professional kickboxer and media figure. The comparison highlights a similar purple button-down shirt and black pants outfit worn by Tate and the Asda model. The ASDA George branded outfit in the comparison is priced at £17 for the top and £12 for the pants.
Unfortunately, the message from Mr. Trump and others has been that America's elections can't be trusted, and the only hope is the SAVE America Act. Aside from being untrue, this is a political backfire for the GOP. If Republican voters believe it, and the bill falls short, then why waste time going to the polls in November? Has the GOP already forgotten how Mr. Trump's fraud outbursts cost them two Senate seats in the 2021 Georgia runoffs? Republicans should be campaigning on what they want to do with two more years in power. There are ways to improve voting integrity, but Mr. Tillis is right that it's reckless to sow generalized suspicion that American elections aren't honest. In fact, the intel memo Mr. Trump declassified warned this is what a U.S. adversary might do. "Much of the voting public probably knows little about the process of administering US elections," it says, "which could allow false narratives to gain traction." That's dated Jan. 15, 2020. Now there's some prescient intelligence.
Secret documents from a series of clandestine Russian-Chinese military forums reveal a joint plan to defeat Elon Musk's Starlink and a weapons development partnership far deeper than either country will admit. From air-and missile-defense systems to Al-enhanced drone capabilities, cooperation between Moscow and Beijing is allowing Russian forces to keep pace with Ukrainian innovations while China gains the opportunity to test its wares under combat conditions. Although the threat of increased Western sanctions continues to place constraints on their “no limits" partnership, Russia and China are moving forward with several joint projects – and former U.S. military officers are concerned about Washington's will to stop them.
In early 2021, Republicans were poised to win a majority in the U.S. Senate. Had they won, they could have stalled President Biden's agenda and forced him to govern on Republican terms. All they had to do was win the two Senate seats in Georgia headed to a runoff in January. Then Donald Trump opened his yap. He had just lost the presidency. To assuage his own ego injury, Trump attacked the election as fake and rigged. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported the effect of this talk in Georgia. In rural and conservative areas of the state, 752,000 Georgians who had voted in November stayed home in January. Turnout rose by 228,000 in Democratic-leaning areas. Trump had discouraged his own voters and energized his foes. His party lost both seats and any hope of retaining the Senate. Tonight, Trump repeated his self-destructive behavior. If you are an anti-Trump voter who watched all or part of tonight's speech to the nation, you saw a president removed from reality, babbling about conspiracy theories, threatening your right to vote. You probably came away from the speech alarmed, angry, and motivated. If, on the other hand, you are pro-Trump, you heard a message of despair. Your president, in whom you trust, described a hopelessly compromised voting system, so broken that it fooled even Trump himself in his first presidency. Between the Chinese, the illegal aliens, and the hated liberal media, your vote will probably count for nothing. Plus, it's crooked and unpatriotic to vote by mail. It's all hopeless. Why bother?
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump We are holding Canada responsible for the fact that they are not properly maintaining their Forests, and Brush therein, and the United States is being unnecessarily invaded by filthy, polluted, and unhealthy air, the quality of which is dangerous, and totally unacceptable! I will call the Prime Minister during the day to find out what they are going to do about it. The cost is incalculable! Canada has refused to engage in basic Forest Management and Debris Removal, knowing that such refusal will lead to exactly this result. This is Willful Negligence, and becoming a yearly occurrence, costing the United States Billions of Dollars, which cost of this pollution must of necessity be added to the TARIFFS Canada is currently paying. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP 106 ReTruths 373 Likes Jul 17, 2026 at 3:24 PM
This image is a political cartoon produced by Xinhua Global Service, a Chinese state-controlled media outlet, published around July 16, 2026. The cartoon contrasts U.S. domestic policy, depicted as a blindfolded Uncle Sam throwing a dart at a dartboard, with its foreign policy, shown as a calculated war plan. It highlights themes of U.S. military budget, weapons production, and strategic targets in regions like the Middle East and Africa.
Federal government spending has reached nearly $7.0 trillion over the last 12 months, which is among the highest levels in history. Government revenue has increased to a record $5.4 trillion over the same period, representing a rise of nearly $1.0 trillion since 2023. The gap between federal spending and revenue has persisted for 23 consecutive years. Individual income taxes were the primary source of revenue in 2025, accounting for approximately 50.5%, or $2.66 trillion, of total revenue.
Either way, the stakes remind me of a question I once asked Graham on a long flight over Central Asia. At what point in his career, I wondered, had he gathered the boldness to assert himself so overtly in foreign policy? "When I was first elected to the House," he recalled, "I looked for the they. They who run things. They who know how things really work. They who know what they are doing. But I couldn't find the they." After that, he went on, "I went to the Senate. But there was still no they. And then I started to get invited to the White House, and to closed-door briefings, and to meetings with top officials. No they." "What I finally realized," he concluded, "is that there is no they. There is only we, and we usually don't know what the fuck we're doing."
This interactive map displays real-time wildfire data for North America, highlighting numerous active fire incidents across Canada and the western United States. The visualization is updated hourly using information from the Wildland Fire Interagency Geospatial Service (WFIGS) and the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre. The map distinguishes between active wildfires, prescribed burns, and new fires reported within the past 24 hours. Significant smoke plumes originating from these fires are visualized, with conditions favoring continued fire development due to drought and high temperatures.
The labs are telling us not to get loyal. OpenAl shipped three price-performance tiers at once, and Meta entered by undercutting incumbents. Meanwhile, SpaceXAI's entire pitch is that it does comparable work with fewer tokens. And Anthropic is betting that coding work is worth a premium. These are not four versions of the same business model. They're an invitation to route work among them.
Footballer Erling Haaland purchased a rare 1594 edition of Kongsagaene (Sagas of the Kings) for approximately 1.3 million Norwegian kroner and donated it to the Bryne library. The rare book is considered one of the most valuable in Norwegian history. Footballer Neymar was photographed with a Jacob & Co. Astronomia Tourbillon watch, reported to be valued at $1 million.
Bill Status: The U.S. House passed legislation to make Daylight Saving Time permanent, with the bill now heading to the Senate for approval. Voting Results: The legislation passed with a 308-117 vote, supported by President Trump. Expert Views: While some advocacy groups celebrate this step, many sleep and circadian experts prefer permanent standard time to align with natural morning light.
The chart shows overwhelming opposition to a proposed rule across all commenter types: 96.8% of anonymous commenters, 90.1% of individuals, and 89.4% of organizations opposed the measure. Public sentiment analysis indicated that opposition stemmed from concerns that political appointees could override expert peer review and alter federal grant approvals. This analysis was conducted by researchers at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and published by STAT.
Charlie Bilello @charliebilello. Jul 14 Price Increases over last 7 years... New Cars: +22% Used Cars: +29% Groceries: +33% Shelter: +35% Family Health Insurance: +38% Restaurants: +39% Transportation: +41% Electricity: +44% Gasoline: +49% Auto Insurance: +51% Gas Utilities: +60% Home Prices: +60% Fuel Oil: +60% Dozen Eggs: +72% Ground Beef: +79% Coffee: +127%
Dr. Catharine Young @DrCatharineY Jul 15 Prevent shingles and potentially protect your brain! A study of over 500,000 nursing home residents found the shingles vaccine was associated with a 24% lower risk of dementia over four years. The evidence linking shingles vaccination and brain health continues to grow. Dementia Risk After Recombinant Herpes Zoster Vaccination in Older Adults With a Recent Skilled-Nursing Facility Stay: A Target Trial Emulation Kaleen N Hayes et al. Ann Intern Med. 2026.
Right Angle News Network @Rightanglenews A 77-year-old woman is now speaking out after the state of Florida sent her a randomized license plate number that appears to read "squeeze ass."
Catturd TM @catturd2 FYI... Just talked to @johnrich trying to get Turdstock 4 organized. We will let you know the date and ticket info sometime early to mid August. It gets better every year - can't wait. 8:49 AM 6/15/26 83K Views
This chart is a forecast projection of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the NINO3.4 region, illustrating a projected El Niño event. ​It references a pop-culture gag from the movie Spaceballs ("Ludicrous Speed," complete with Dark Helmet in the bottom right corner) to highlight how extreme this projected temperature spike is compared to historic norms. ​Here is a summary of the key information shown in the chart: ​1. The Forecast & Path ​Source & Date: This is an ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) model forecast starting from July 1, 2026. ​Timeline: The projection tracks sea surface anomalies starting around April 2026 and forecasts them out through March 2027. ​Trend: The temperature anomaly has been climbing rapidly since April. It is projected to shoot past "Super" and "Historic" levels by August/September, peaking around November to December 2026 before slightly leveling off. ​2. El Niño Classification Levels ​The chart breaks down El Niño strength based on the degrees Celsius (°C) deviation from average sea surface temperatures: Classification/Temperature Anomaly (°C) Neutral: 0.0°C to 0.5°C Weak El Niño: 0.5°C to 1.0°C Moderate El Niño: 1.0°C to 1.5°C Strong El Niño: 1.5°C to 2.0°C Super El Niño: 2.0°C to 2.8°C Historic El Niño: 2.8°C to 3.5°C "Ludicrous" El Niño: 3.5°C and above 3. Key Takeaways ​Unprecedented Territory: The vast majority of the individual forecast member lines (the light blue "plume") cluster well above 3.5°C from October 2026 through January 2027. ​Extreme Peak: Several individual model runs project the anomaly peaking near or above 4.0°C to 4.4°C in late autumn and winter. ​The "Ludicrous" Label: While "Super" and "Historic" are actual terms used by meteorologists to describe legendary El Niños (like 1997-1998 or 2015-2016), the term "Ludicrous El Niño" (3.5°C+ ) is an informal, humorous category added by the creator of the graphic (@WeatherProf Jeff Berardelli) to emphasize just how extraordinarily …
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Emmanuel Macron @Emmanuel Macron 4h Translated from French Show original Proud to see the Ukrainian military marching alongside our forces. A symbol of brotherhood, courage, and shared destiny. Thoughts to the Ukrainian people who are fighting for their freedom and, with it, for that of all Europeans. This image shows a contingent of Ukrainian soldiers marching down the Champs-Élysées during the annual Bastille Day military parade in Paris on July 14, 2026. This marked the first time Ukrainian troops participated in this specific parade. The event was attended by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The parade honored Ukraine and its European allies. Ukrainian pilots also participated by flying Mirage aircraft over the parade route.
This AristoCat Hats French Cat Outfit costume features a striped shirt and a red beret. The handmade set typically includes a red beret with an elastic strap, a black-and-white striped shirt, and a red ascot. It is available through retailers like Amazon and Etsy in various sizes.The costume is often advertised as cultured fashion wear for pets.
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump We drained the beautiful "Reflecting Pool" today in order to fix the scars and damage that was done by the Vandals two weeks ago. We wanted to wait until after the July 4th Weekend. The slashes were 300 yards long, and the floor of the pool was cut and then pulled upward, with great force, by these thugs. The Parks Department had to empty the water in order to fix the water tight basin. It will be refilled and put back into service soon. These Country hating sleazebags should pay a big price for the damage done. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! President DJT 233 ReTruths 869 Likes 7/13/26, 6:49 PM
"There's been a notable change in the profession," said Erik Brynjolfsson, a Stanford economist who helped organize the statement. He said his goal was to get economists and policymakers to take the disruptive potential of A.I. more seriously. "I still see a big gap there, a big mismatch, and I'm kind of worried that we're not going to be ready for the tsunami that's coming," he said. Many economists, including Mr. Brynjolfsson, say they believe that A.I. will ultimately be beneficial, making workers more productive and raising living standards. They point to historical examples of technologies including steam power and the personal computer that wiped out some categories of jobs but ultimately created far more new ones. Even if A.I. follows the same pattern in the long run, however, it could be hugely disruptive in the shorter term, potentially displacing millions of white-collar workers. Economists have warned that the unemployment insurance system and other safety-net programs aren't ready to handle such an influx. "If you look at what robots did in the manufacturing sector, if A.I. does something equivalent in a more compressed time period, that would be really disruptive, really costly for people's livelihoods," Mr. Acemoglu, at M.I.T., said.
The chart illustrates the dramatic surge in U.S. gambling losses from 2016 to 2026. Key Trends Steady Growth (2016–2019): Losses grew gradually from approximately $130B to $155.9B. The Pandemic Dip (2020): A sharp, sudden drop to $62.7B occurred in early 2020, likely due to the widespread closure of physical casinos and sporting events during COVID-19 lockdowns. Rapid Acceleration (2021–2026): Following the dip, losses skyrocketed, surpassing pre-pandemic levels and reaching a record high of $246.7B by early 2026. This steep upward trajectory in recent years coincides with the widespread legalization and expansion of online sports betting across many U.S. states.
The infographic compares monthly fuel costs between gas, hybrid, and electric vehicles, showing that as of June 22, 2026, gas cars have the highest average cost at $149, while EVs ($106) and hybrids ($93) are cheaper. Data indicates that gas prices rose 37% between the first week of February and June 22, while electricity prices increased 16% over the same period. The comparison assumes a driving rate of 217 miles per week and allows users to select vehicle efficiency categories ranging from 20 MPG for large trucks to 36 MPG for compact cars.
A NOBUNAGAD_ 夏樹蒼依 @japan_nobunaga Subscribe It was one hundred and eighteen degrees in Arizona and a man told me it was a dry heat. I asked him what the wet number would be. He laughed. He was not being unkind. He simply had no answer, because there is no wet version of this. This is the number. I touched my steering wheel and I made a sound I have never made before. It was not a word. My ancestors did not have this sound. Then the seatbelt buckle branded me. Nobody warned me about the buckle. Everyone here already knows about the buckle. I have the mark. It is shaped like a seatbelt buckle. I have decided to keep it. I went back into the store. "You need one of these," the woman said, handing me a folding silver screen. I bought it. I bowed. She said, "Yep." The next day I bought four more. My car is now entirely silver inside. It looks like a spacecraft that has given up. A dog walked past me wearing shoes. Little shoes. The dog had solved this. I had not. So I began parking two blocks away, in shade, and walking, in one hundred and eighteen degrees, in order to avoid the heat.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. experienced a significant 5-day decline of 8.49%, closing at $139.10 on July 13, 2026. The stock price showed stability early in the 5-day period before dropping sharply on the final day, July 13. This decline is consistent with broader market volatility impacting tech-related and infrastructure-focused companies during this period.
This study examines several indicators of Russia's battlefield performance compiled by CSIS: fatality and casualty rates, rates of advance of Russian forces as measured in meters per day, and Russian territorial gains in total square kilometers. It also collects and analyzes data on over 20,000 incidents involving Ukrainian strikes against Russian targets. What does this data suggest about Russia's military performance in Ukraine? First, Russian battlefield costs continue to mount, with as many as 450,000 battlefield deaths and 1.4 million casualties between February 2022 and June 2026. These rates are astounding. Russian fatalities in Ukraine are more than four times greater than all U.S. fatalities in all wars combined since World War II, and more than nine times greater than all Soviet and Russian fatalities in all wars combined since World War II. In addition, Russia's monthly casualty rates of over 30,000 per month in 2026 have likely exceeded Russia's recruitment rates of roughly 27,000 new recruits per month. The Russia-Ukraine casualty rate has likely risen to nearly 8:1 in the first half of 2026, up from between 2:1 and 3:1 for much of the war, in large part due to Ukraine's use of drones-including AI-enabled drones-as part of its aggressive air interdiction campaign. Second, Russia's ground offensive has largely stalled, with an average rate of advance of approximately 50 meters per day around Kostiantynivka, 70 meters per day around Pokrovsk, and 90 meters per day around Sloviansk. These are among the slowest rates of advance in any war over the last century. Third, Russia's territorial control in Ukraine shrank in the spring of 2026. Russian forces lost more ground than they captured in both April and May, a net loss of roughly 400 square kilometers and their first monthly net losses since August 2024-yet another sign of Russia's military struggles.
molson @Molson_Hart. 25m If you looked at an economy like we look at the human body, you would call private equity cancer. Private equity combines smaller efficient companies into one larger inefficient mass, forcing the cells (employees, vendors, customers) that depend on it to die or seek out other non-cancerous cells. Capital is like sugar, the more the body showers on the system in an attempt to fix its dysfunction, the larger the cancer grows. The solution is to let the body kill the cancer et via competition or administer medicine to kill it, but instead we just feed it with bailouts and more sugar. Other cells see how the cancerous cells are able to grow and even fuse with other cancerous cells and then get showered with more sugar so they develop their own free radicals and go cancerous. Eventually, the cancerous cells grow so numerous that they overwhelm their host and kill the body, or in our case, the entire economy.
The chart shows a sharp collapse in commercial vessel crossings through the Strait of Hormuz starting in late February 2026, dropping to roughly 10% of the January-February rate. Recent data indicates only 11 total commercial crossings in a rolling 24-hour period, consisting of 8 tankers and 3 dry cargo ships. This decline coincided with Iran declaring the Strait closed "until further notice" following a failed diplomatic attempt by Oman to establish joint management for transit tolls. While a temporary rebound occurred in late June, reaching a high of 57 crossings on June 24, traffic has since fallen back to near-zero levels.
The Shallow State @OurShallowState. 2h Trump is increasingly weak - physically, mentally, emotionally, neurologically. He's started talking about his own cognition again, and we know what that means. I think it's increasingly important to not only resist and stand against him, but to chide him; and here's why: Trump is a narcissist. For him to be made fun of, injures him narcissistically. Narcissistic injury - especially in a public narrative - makes him confront his fear of humiliation. It makes him confront how badly he is flailing, how piss-poor his polling is, and how humiliated he is, AND - it starts a chain reaction: The more narcissistic injury he feels, the more panicky he acts. The more panicky he acts, the more energy he expends. The more energy he expends, the more often he needs to be recalibrated. The more often he needs to be recalibrated, the more his own followers question him. The more his own followers question him, the worse his polling and the more desperate he becomes. The more desperate he becomes, the more mistakes he makes. The more mistakes he makes, the weaker he is, and the more he is parodied. The weaker he is, and the more he is parodied, the more narcissistic injury he feels, the more panicky he acts, the more energy he expends, the more he's recalibrated, the more his followers question him, the worse his polling is, the more desperate he becomes, the more mistakes he makes, the weaker he becomes - again, and the worse it will get for him.