Paul Johnson

@paulrjohnson.net

1770 Followers 863 Following

Data Scientist interested in causal inference, machine learning, and statistics | He/Him Website: https://paulrjohnson.net Github: https://github.com/paulj1989

The side profile of a white 16oz Phenom SG210 laced boxing glove.
A mural painted on the side of a building, depicting the Battle of Cable Street.
Two small dogs laying on a mountain of blankets together.
Newspaper plastered on a wall with the headline "Best take in town"
The grim reaper knocking doors meme
Wait it's all in Linz? Always has been.
A screenshot of the full time result of the Borussia Dortmund and Southampton games. Borussia Dortmund beat Villarreal 4-0 (Villarreal had one red card), and Southampton beat Leicester City 3-0 (Leicester also had one red card).
A table showing the Premier League 2025/26 season projections generated from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. The model projects Arsenal are the most likely to win the Premier League, with a 63.5% probability, with Manchester City, Liverpool, and Chelsea rounding out the rest of the top four. At the other end of the table, Wolves (72.6%), Burnley (52.3%), and Leeds (35.8%) are the most likely to be relegated.
A screenshot of the Predicting Ball app showing the Team Strengths tab, displaying Borussia Dortmund's Team Metrics. The tab shows cards that display the overall rating (0.4), attack rating (0.39), defense rating (0.41), and project points (64), and below this are two plots showing how BVB compare to the rest of the league (overall they are the third highest rated team behind Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen).
The outside of a British pub called the Southampton Arms
The table for Group A in the Club World Cup after one game. All four teams (Al Ahly, Porto, Palmeiras, and Inter Miami) are on one point, with a draw each, and no goals scored (or conceded).
A plate with a pork banh mi and a smiley face drawn in sriracha.
A close-up of a pink bag with flowers and the words "Houston" and "The City of Houston" all over it
The header of an article written by Patrick Galbraith, "Stop scapegoating Britain's landed classes".
A teku glass stands on a wooden chopping board, filled with a homemade radler made from a mix of Verdant's Lightbulb XPA and homemade raspberry lemonade. The XPA can and a jug filled with raspberry lemonade sit on either side of the glass.
A bowl of sesame-fried spam with broccoli and garlic fried rice, with sriracha drizzled on top.
A tin of spam held to camera by the person (me) taking the picture. The person's hand and tattooed arm is in shot, with a bin, fridge, and the kitchen floor in the background.
Eight cans of Pomona Island beer, stacked in two rows of four. The top row of beers are JACK BE NIMBLE, JACK BE QUICK (West Coast Pale), SQUIRREL-SQUASHING, DEER-SMACKING (West Coast IPA), ISÉ-MAIRI (Orange Small Pale), and CHECK OUT THE PARTY (Blackcurrant, Blackberry, Apple and Cinnamon Sour). The bottom row of beers are I WISH I COULD SHIMMY LIKE MY SISTER KATE (IPA), O'HANRAHA-HANRAHAN (Blackcurrant Gose), MY NAN'S GONNA LOVE HER CIRCULAR SAW (Salted Chocolate & Rosemary Stout), and ВІВBIТY-ВОВВІТY HAT (Pale).
The packaging that the Borussia Dortmund 24/25 special edition neon kit comes in. A neon yellow box with splashes of black, with the BVB logo in the middle.
The host of the TV show To Catch a Predator, Chris Hansen, looking at the camera.
RFK Jr, flanked by Russell Brand in a wide-open leopard skin shirt and a shirtless Dr Oz, presenting a lizard to the camera like a gift.
A small dog (breed: ratcha) nestled into blanket looking very cozy, staring at camera as she falls asleep.
Eight cans of Verdant beer, stacked in two rows of four. The top row of cans are De-Bleaker (IPA), Sundialer (Pale Ale), Light Bulb (XPA), PuTTTy (TIPA). The bottom row of cans are Sniffing the Wrong People (IPA), There is Only Now (Pale Ale), People Money Space Time (Session IPA), Remarks (IPA).
A small dog laying on a sofa submerged by a fluffy blanket, with just her eyes, nose, and feet poking out.
The "I just need to" meme but with "I just need to buy another train."
14 cans of beer stacked on top of each other, in two rows of seven, on a desk. Eight of the beers are Vault City sours (and one stout), and the others are the six beers produced by various brewery collaborations for Brewser's ProjectX 2024.
A time-series plot visualising Southampton's total and predicted points each season from 2012/13 to 2022/23, including a fitted line that visualises the trends in predicted and total points. Southampton overperformed expectations, on average, in the first half of the seasons being studied but started to decline after the 2016/17 season, both in terms of their predicted and total points, before a considerable dip in their total points (which is also a massive underperformance of their predicted points) which resulted in their relegation.
A time-series plot visualising Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, and Spurs's total and predicted points each season from 2012/13 to 2023/24, including a fitted line that visualises the trends in predicted and total points. Arsenal significantly underperformed expectations midway through the period but in recent seasons have experienced similarly significant overperformances, while Liverpool and Arsenal have consistently overperformed expectations recently. Manchester United and Tottenham have performed above expectations in earlier seasons but have otherwise met expectations. Finally, Chelsea have the largest swings, with massive overperformances in the early seasons and similarly significant underperformances in other seasons.
A regression plot visualising the relationship between squad market values and the model's predicted points in the Big Five leagues from 2012/13 - 2023/24. The plot includes fitted regression lines for each league. The five regression lines are similar in shape. However, the Premier League slope is more gradual with a smaller intercept, suggesting that Premier League teams need more expensive squads to compete and increases in squad value are worth fewer points. The Premier League line also extends further on the x-axis because the most expensive squads in the Premier League are worth significantly more than the rest of the leagues. The intercepts for the other four leagues are very similar, but the Bundesliga and Ligue 1 tail off as squad value increases due to playing fewer games in a season and, therefore, having fewer available points that the increases in squad value could gain. Finally, La Liga and Serie A have similar slopes. The endpoint of the La Liga line is further along the x-axis due to the significantly larger Real Madrid and Barcelona squad values.
A beautiful black and white dog (a ratcha) asleep in the arms of their owner, under a fluffy blanket, with their tongue poking out.
A closeup of multiple causal inference books on a shelf, among others about related topics. The three books are Cunningham's Causal Inference: The Mixtape, Pearl & Mackenzie's The Book of Why, and Rosenbaum's Causal Inference.
A photoshopped image of Cilla Black with an angry/disgusted face (that is not her own face).
The "You wouldn't download a car" meme, changed to "You wouldn't block a stalker", to mock the blue ticks that are suggesting you shouldn't be able to block your stalkers on Twitter because you can't block them in real life (you can and you should).
A brown and white chihuahua puppy sat on the end of the sofa looking cute.
A portrait of a young Alan Partridge
A rat terrier/chihuahua mix curled up and sleeping on a pink blanket.