James Rosen-Birch

@provisionalidea.bsky.social

847 Followers 447 Following

founder. orgs. tech. cybernetics. ex-biotech.

There is a gap between a current technology and its (presumed) potential Economic contractions cause capital to evaporate Capital is needed for R&D to close the gap Speculative bubble begins Investors have less capital to invest Investors put in money on the basis of the new (increased) expectations Hype is created around the technology to spur investment Gap between expectations and reality becomes clear Investors become more risk averse and demanding of near-term ROI The gap between the technology's current performance and its (assumed) potential increases Hype increases expectations around the technology Innovators are forced to commercialize prematurely in exchange for capital Innovation Hype Loop (3)
Economic contractions cause capital to evaporate Speculative bubble begins to deflate Investors have less capital to invest Gap between expectations and reality becomes clear Investors become more risk averse and demanding of near-term ROI Innovators are forced to commercialize prematurely in exchange for capital Innovation Hype Loop (2)
There is a gap between a current technology and its (presumed) potential Capital is needed for R&D to close the gap Investors put in money on the basis of the new (increased) expectations Hype is created around the technology to spur investment The gap between the technology's current performance and its (assumed) potential increases Hype increases expectations around the technology Innovation Hype Loop (1)
The final slide deck, titled "The Great Trust: From a Demolished Iranian Proxy to a Prosperous Abrahamic Ally" has been shared with members of the current and former US administrations, according to people familiar with the project, along with other governments and stakeholders in the Middle East. "Great" is short for Gaza Reconstitution, Economic Acceleration and Transformation. It envisaged all Gaza's public land being put into a trust for development, whose assets could be sold to investors via digital tokens traded on a blockchain. Gazans would be offered the chance to contribute their privately owned land to the trust in return for a token that gave them the right to a permanent housing unit. Advanced Manufacturing Example: EV Industrial Zone American electric vehicle companios build factories ant facilities for employees in northern Gaza and Southern Israol Minerais and Matorials shipped from KSA and UAE Assembled into batteries and cars by skilled (low-cost) personnel in factories powered by Gas from Gaza- Marine and PV energy Cars delivered in Europe with low shipping costs via El-Arish Port and 0% tax (free trade zone) - competing with Chinese EVs EV Companies gain profits - while giving a better future for Palestinians and Israelis One of the slides from the Great Trust deck showing an idea for postwar Gaza's industrial sector
The New Hork Times 20,000 NAZI FRIENDS AT A RALLY HERE DENOUNCE BOYCOTT; Throng in Madison Sq. Garden Appeals to Roosevelt to Stop 'Illegal' Movement. UNTERMYER'S NAME BOOED 750 Police Hold Off 1,000 Red Marchers - 'Storm Troops' in Uniform Clear Lobbies. THE "FRIENDS OF NEW GERMANY" AT THEIR RALLY IN THE GARDEN. 20,000 NAZI ALLIES DENOUNCE BOYCOTT i Share full article May 18, 1934
Between the German government's disinformation campaign and the groups that voluntarily aligned themselves with Hitler, Nazism had tentacles that touched every American community to some extent. Thousands of people joined groups like the German American Bund and the Silver Legion, marching down American streets in Nazi-esque uniforms, sending their children to Nazi summer camps, and heiling their leaders. Supporters of celebrity radio host Father Coughlin's Christian Front roughed up Jews on subway platforms and discouraged Americans from shopping at Jewish-owned stores. In the marbled corridors of Washington, DC, a German agent ran an ingenious operation to disseminate shocking quantities of isolationist and pro-German propaganda at taxpayer expense. This twentieth-century version of spam email showed up unsolicited in millions of mailboxes around the country. Business leaders found themselves courted by Nazi envoys who promised huge profits in the Reich if they could only convince Roosevelt to keep out of the war. Students at American universities were caught in the middle of academic freedom battles as anti-Nazi faculty were forced off campus and pro-Nazi groups spread hateful propaganda.
Between the German government's disinformation campaign and the groups that voluntarily aligned themselves with Hitler, Nazism had tentacles that touched every American community to some extent. Thousands of people joined groups like the German American Bund and the Silver Legion, marching down American streets in Nazi-esque uniforms, sending their children to Nazi summer camps, and heiling their leaders. Supporters of celebrity radio host Father Coughlin's Christian Front roughed up Jews on subway platforms and discouraged Americans from shopping at Jewish-owned stores. In the marbled corridors of Washington, DC, a German agent ran an ingenious operation to disseminate shocking quantities of isolationist and pro-German propaganda at taxpayer expense. This twentieth-century version of spam email showed up unsolicited in millions of mailboxes around the country. Business leaders found themselves courted by Nazi envoys who promised huge profits in the Reich if they could only convince Roosevelt to keep out of the war. Students at American universities were caught in the middle of academic freedom battles as anti-Nazi faculty were forced off campus and pro-Nazi groups spread hateful propaganda. Most sinisterly, some Americans were enticed by
James Surowiecki & @JamesSurowiecki Follow Again, Congress could end this tonight by repealing the laws Trump is using to impose these tariffs. And every member of Congress who doesn't vote to do so (or at least to require Congress to approve tariffs before they go into effect) deserves blame for what's happening.
Conor Sen @conorsen Follow I don't know where we go from here but he's never going to get that credibility back in Wall Street's eyes and 45 months is a long, long way to go when that's the case.
Revisionists were openly sympathetic to fascism. Betar, the Revisionist youth movement, admired Mussolini. They wore brown shirts and did the fascist salute. 26 The Revisionist newspaper carried a regular column called "From the Notebook of a Fascist," and on one occasion when Jabotinsky came to Palestine, the newspaper ran a column titled, "On the Arrival of Our Duce."27 In 1933 a columnist wrote, "Social democrats of all stripes believe that Hitler's movement is an empty shell [but] we believe that there is both a shell and a kernel. The antisemitic shell is to be discarded, but not the anti-Marxist kernel."28
Hi James Rosen-Birch AA* ， Your post was reported and has had its visibility limited for violating the X rules. Specifically: We have determined your post violated our rules against Hateful Conduct. You may not promote violence against, threaten, or harass other people on the basis of race, ethnicity, national origin, sexual orientation, gender, gender identity, religious affiliation, age, disability, or serious disease. James Rosen-Birch AA* @provisionalidea @Betar_USA you're really just a shadow of what you were in the 20s, though. Like how neonazis today are just white trash.
Kylie Cheung @kylietcheung Follow NYU canceled a speech by the former president of Doctors Without Borders because she was going to discuss the genocide in Gaza. A slide about the death toll in Gaza "could be perceived as antisemitic": A couple of the slides in her presentation touched on the casualties in Gaza during the Israel-Hamas war as well as the cuts at the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). Liu said she was told the slides about Gaza "could be perceived as antisemitic" while the USAID section might be perceived as "anti governmental." Liu, who was already in New York when she got the call, offered to make edits to those slides but then three hours later, after some deliberations, she said the university apologized and said they had to cancel. "I was stunned," Liu said.
The image of a John Deere tractor from a YouTube video seen pulling a Russian tank is an example of the epic struggle underway for the farmers in Ukraine. John Deere has struck a blow against the Russian Army, in its war of aggression in Ukraine. The tractor company found out Russian troops in the occupied city of Melitopol have stolen all the equipment from a farm equipment dealership, and shipped it to Chechnya, according to a Ukrainian businessman in the area. But after a journey of more than 700 miles, the thieves were unable to use any of the equipment, because it had been locked remotely.
What a difference a month makes. In February, scientists reported that an experimental vaccine showed promise in a small group of patients with pancreatic cancer, a disease that is often diagnosed late and carries a notoriously poor prognosis. The vaccine - using messenger RNA (mRNA) technology similar to that found in some Covid vaccines - activated tumour-targeting immune cells that persisted for nearly four years after surgery in some patients. Not all 16 recipients produced an immune response but those who did were less likely to see their cancer recur. These early findings, from the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center in New York, have already spurred a follow-up study. Could mRNA vaccines now be the White House's latest target? On March 16, scientists were reportedly being advised by US National Institutes of Health officials to remove references to mRNA technology from grant applications. The informal advice followed an email from the NIH's acting director soliciting details of grants, contracts and collaborations involving mRNA technology. Nature reports the existence of a spreadsheet with around 130 entries.
MODERNDIPLOMACY ALL VIEWS| ALL VOICES We are not talking about the future. When the U.S. sold FA-18 jets to Australia three decades ago, they would not supply the system codes necessary to acquire enemy targets the Australians wanted them to. These jets would only lock on targets the U.S. would allow [2]. Subsequently, the Australian military developed their own Electronic Warfare Self Protection, a Radar Warning Receiver known as ALR-2002 [3]. It has been also claimed that Australian programmers discovered the codes the U.S. would not provide them [41, but both of these indigenous efforts might be the same although announced and interpreted differently. The Australian Defense Minister at the time noted "The radar of our Hornet could not identify most of the aircraft in this region as hostile ... so our frontline fighter could not shoot down people who might be the enemies in this region" [5]. By 2006 Australia's ALR-2002 project was being phased out in favor of Raytheon's ALR-67 (V3) as this unit provided necessary access to radar signatures the Australians required, and it was fully operational whereas the ALR-2002 was still in its qualification stage. For fifteen years, the U.S. arbitrarily denied an ally access to full system capabilities.
Haaretz | Opinion Opinion | Even Anti-war Israelis Are Scared to Say Gazans Are Human Beings A Palestinian child carrying food cries as people gather for a mass fast-breaking iftar meal in Beit Lahia in the northern Gaza Strip, Saturday. Credit: AFP/Omar Al-Qattaa Hanin Majadli Mar 21, 2025 2:57 am IST Israel recently committed the largest child massacre in its history. Two hundred children and 100 women were killed in one day. Altogether, about 400 civilians were killed, and the number of dead is not yet final. These numbers are not reported in the Israeli media, and if they are - it's always minimized in an outrageous manner.
ANDREESSEN HOROWITZ TABLE OF CONTENTS Becoming Technological Supermen We believe that advancing technology is one of the most virtuous things that we can do. We believe in deliberately and systematically transforming ourselves into the kind of people who can advance technology.
Teddy Schleifer & @teddyschleifer Wild story from my colleagues@maggieNYT @kateconger@esullivannyt@RMac18 In February, Chris Stanley, who currently works as a security engineer at two of Mr. Musk's companies, SpaceX and the social media platform X, went to the roof of the Eisenhower Executive Office Building in the White House complex to explore installing Starlink there. Mr. Stanley has also been working with Mr. Musk's Department of Government Efficiency as a special government employee. As Mr. Stanley opened a door leading to the roof of the building, which is directly opposite an entrance to the White House, he tripped an alarm that alerted the Secret Service to his presence. It created a dramatic scene as a uniformed officer rushed to respond, according to four people with knowledge of the incident.
James Rosen-Birch @provisio....3h l used to feel some sympathy to American concerns about the need to maintain the military advantage against authoritarian adversaries. Then America became our authoritarian adversary. Geoff Lewis @GeoffLewisOrg.4h The U.S. military needs to accelerate dramatically in order to keep up with our accelerating world. Therefore, it will be the responsibility of a... 1 13 1hl 531 Geoff Lewis @GeoffLewisOrg •1h Solely for thought experiment purposes, let's assume your notion is correct. In that scenario, you still ought to want multiple scaled transcendent defense tech companies to avoid extreme concentration of power at that level. 1 ↑
THE TYEE Log in X Threatens Our Democracy. Canada Should Ban It The risks of election interference, misinformation and attempts to support a US takeover are too great. David Climenhaga 7 Mar 2025 Alberta Politics David J. Climenhaga is an award-winning journalist, author, post-secondary teacher, poet and trade union communicator. He blogs at AlbertaPolitics.ca. Follow him on BlueSky @djclimenhaga.bsky.social.
The United States has increased its dominance of global financial flows, receiving the highest share of international capital flows in 2022-2023. Approximately 41 percent of global gross inflows were destined for the United States, almost doubling the country's pre-pandemic share of 23 percent (Allen and Bems 2024). The United States' currency also plays a unique role on the international stage, functioning as a reserve currency, denominating an outsized share of global trade, and denominating a large share of cross-border financial transactions (Boz et al. 2020).
You don't really want a Manufacturing Economy. You want a political economy where industries have the economies of scale and lack of international competion to support generous compensation for twice the employees that they really need and a political system that forces them to (Manufacturing is way, way too competitive and low margin to support that arrangement now)
Israel has set up a "special directorate" to facilitate the "emigration" of Palestinians from Gaza, as it steps up its public embrace of the plan by US President Donald Trump for residents to leave the devastated territory. The new offer, which would include "among other things, special departure arrangements by sea, air, and land", underscores how Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is capitalising on Trump's proposal, under which the US would take over the coastal enclave shattered by 15 months of war. The directorate would be set up within the defence ministry, which executes the Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories and controls all entry and exit points of the Gaza Strip.
Marcus Licinius Crassus was one of the richest Romans in history. One of his ways to become rich was organizing a "fire brigade". It is worth mentioning that in the half of the 1st century BCE in Rome, there were no firefighting services. On the other hand, fire was a common cataclysm in Rome. To a large extent, wooden buildings and city crush meant that a small spark was enough to start a fire that spread easily. But how did the Crassus' "fire brigade" work? At the time when the fire broke out Crassus with his "firemen" (a group of 500 slaves - architects and builders) appeared on the spot and first bought the building with the earth for a very low price, and only then his people proceeded to extinguish the fire. In this way, Crassus became the owner of a large part of Roman real estate.
FINANCIAL TIMES ° Trump's attempt to return American creditworthiness to its pre-Alexander Hamilton's state is ... interesting. But this is so wild that we're inclined to assume and hope that markets will shrug it off as just another brain-fart from an administration that starts and ends trade wars within 24 hours. Not because Treasury secretary Scott Bessent will probably be flabbergasted at this, just days after he said that both he and president Trump were "focused" on getting the 10-year Treasury yield down. After all, the roll-call of people who have tried and failed to play a restraining role on Trump is longer than a bad year. No, this will probably get ignored and downplayed simply because any real and sustained suggestion that the US government could selectively default on some of its sovereign bonds — let alone "a lot" — would trigger a financial crisis so swift and severe that it would make any tariff tantrums seem puny in comparison.
Com'è stato possibile il 7 ottobre James Rosen-Birch, New Lines Magazine, Stati Uniti
Alex Tabarrok @ATabarrok .@elonmusk really is a genius. In the history of how to reform government, no one to my knowledge suggested getting hold of the systems controlling personnel and payments. Obvious in retrospect but totally new play.
Elon Musk's hopes of launching Starlink in South Africa are being delayed by fierce infighting within the country's ruling coalition over Black economic empowerment laws the US entrepreneur has characterised as "racist". Foreign investors in South Africa's telecoms sector are required to provide 30 per cent of the equity in a project to Black-owned businesses to qualify for a licence, a policy championed by the African National Congress to redress racial inequalities created under apartheid. But Musk, who was born in South Africa, on Monday described the country's policies as "openly racist". US President Donald Trump also weighed in this weekend, saying South Africa's government was "treating certain classes of people very badly", a reference to a land expropriation bill also intended to address unequal ownership.
Currently, the NdFeB magnet value chain (covering mining, processing, and manufacturing) is heavily concentrated in China. Canada, its allies, and industry stakeholders worldwide are seeking to diversify the sourcing of rare earths to ensure a reliable, responsible, and sustainable supply as demand grows internationally and domestically in Canada. This is an opportunity Canada is well positioned to seize due to our abundant mineral resources, advanced projects and innovative processes being developed across the value chain. Opportunities for Canada's rare earths Canada has some of the world's largest known reserves and resources (measured and indicated) of rare earths, estimated at over 15.2 million tonnes of rare earth oxide in 2023 and is host to several advanced exploration projects across the country. Some of these projects contain high concentrations of highly valued 'heavy' rare earths such as dysprosium
The new authority follows a standoff this week with a top Treasury official who had resisted allowing Mr. Musk's lieutenants into the department's payment system, which sends out money on behalf of the entire federal government. The official, a career civil servant named David Lebryk, was put on leave and then suddenly retired on Friday after the dispute, according to people familiar with his exit. The system could give the Trump administration another mechanism to attempt to unilaterally restrict disbursement of money approved for specific purposes by Congress, a push that has faced legal roadblocks. Mr. Musk, who has been given wide latitude by President Trump to find ways to slash government spending, has recently fixated on Treasury's payment processes, criticizing the department in a social media post on Saturday for not rejecting more payments as fraudulent or improper. It is not clear whether the team led by Mr. Musk, the world's wealthiest man, has blocked any payments since gaining access to the system.
The idea remains deeply unpopular among residents of the country whose new president is threatening to erect the economically harsh trade barriers. Polls by Leger and the Associated Press/NORC in January both found that only 29 per cent of Americans want tariffs on all imports. That includes not just a significant (though non-majority) chunk of supporters of Donald Trump's own Republican Party, but also many of its key figures.
The US would be forced to buy oil from geopolitical rivals such as Venezuela if it disrupted trade with Canada, Ottawa's foreign minister has warned. Mélanie Joly told the Financial Times the US president's threat to impose levies of 25 per cent on Canadian imports would hit "real people" if relations between the two countries descended into a trade war. "We ship oil at a discount which is, ultimately, refined in Texas. If it's not us, it is Venezuela," Joly said, referring to the heavy grades of oil produced in Venezuela and Canada on which many American refineries depend. "There's no other option on the table, and this administration doesn't want to work with Venezuela," Joly said. US President Donald Trump imposed sweeping sanctions on Caracas during his first term in the White House.
very very very weird that the massive tariffs the President announced would begin at midnighttoday have still not happened and the White House literally won't answer any questions about them
FINANCIAL TIMES Even the anti-Donald Trump graffiti on the streets of West Hollywood is scarce and halfhearted now. Eight years ago, California was the "resistance" state. It is a different mood that a visitor encounters in 2025: resignation, boredom with the subject, a we-had-it-coming attitude among thoughtful Democrats and, at times, something approaching curiosity about the economic potential of America under a deregulating president. A great liberal shrug is going on. It has been happening around the world since Trump clinched his win in November, and it is natural. You can't be angry all the time. In the autocracies of 20th-century Europe, people of dissenting conscience often made what was known as an "inner migration". That is, rather than flee or fight, they withdrew into private life as the political realm darkened around them. To detach like this is clever, not weak.
Chinese manufacturers, with their attention long fixed on cost and technology, have been closely scrutinising all this, and have seen ways to make kaizen their own. DeepSeek may represent a software breakthrough, but it is one borne on the shoulders of a now relentlessly, incrementally advancing hardware sector. Many will argue that China's acquisition of technology has been opportunist at best and underhanded at worst. Where outright theft or coercion is not blamed (and it is, frequently), foreign companies have lost key technology to badly formulated transfer deals or excessive optimism over the ability to protect IP. But that has long ceased to explain everything. In China's most recent and visible industrial achievements — the production of low-cost, competitive quality electric cars, consumer electronics, industrial machinery, high speed trains and robots - some version of kaizen is now at work. And there are reasons to suspect that the Chinese iteration may, for a stint, work faster, more disruptively and with more visible results, than the original. First, China has the numbers and talent to throw at kaizen on a much larger scale than Japan ever mustered. Increments work best when there are a lot of them.
FINANCIAL TIMES Goldman Sachs chief David Solomon has warned private companies to take "great caution" before deciding to go public, adding that the depth of capital in private markets has removed the need for many to list at all. "Today you can get capital privately, at scale ... you can also get liquidity in the private markets. So the reasons to go public, when you really reach an incredible scale, are getting pushed out," said Solomon at the Cisco Al Summit in Palo Alto.