Robert Rohde

@rarohde.bsky.social

8546 Followers 599 Following

Chief Scientist for @berkeleyearth.org. Physics PhD & data nerd. Usually focused on climate change, fossil fuels, & air quality issues.

Time series chart of July monthly-average temperature across the contiguous USA, showing both Berkeley Earth and NOAA results. July 2026 set a new record.
Map of temperature anomalies in June 2025 relative to the 1951-1980 average.
Chart of temperature and humidity at Salta airport, Argentina
Map of changes in annual mean precipitation over Canada.
List of Canadian provinces by burn area in 2023.
Chart comparing the top 10 historical El Niño events alongside forecasts for later this year.
Map of the forests of North America.
Scatter plot of Canadian wildfire season temperature and precipitation with circles indicating wildfire burn area. The largest circles are highlighted, with 9 of 10 occurring in the hot & dry quadrant.
Time series of Canadian wildfire burn area by year, 1959-2025.
Image showing time series of fire season temperature change (May-September) for Canada and its provinces from 1880 to present. Data from Berkeley Earth
Animated map of total precipitable water in the Western Pacific from early Arpil 2026, showing dueling cyclones.
Two charts showing relative mortality risk as a function of outdoor temperature in Paris and Austin, Texas. From OurWorldInData, and based on Chen et al. 2024.
Time series chart showing annual cooling degree days in Paris, France for both observations and emissions scenario SSP2-45, from Berkeley Earth Synthesis.
Chart showing 13 El NIno model forecasts and the ten strongest historical El Niño events, all expressed in terms of the relative oceanic niňo index (rONI).
Map of added heat in a 2003-style heatwave in the vicinity of Paris under assumptions of increased air conditioning use.
Map of forecasted temperatures at 5 PM on Tuesday 6/23 from the ICON model. Image source: https://www.ventusky.com/#p=48.1;-8.4;5&t=20260623/1500
Plot from Zeke Hausfather showing his and WMO forecasts for annual average temperatures in 2026 and 2027.
Chart showing the peak El Niño intensity forecast for the 2026/27 El Niño across 13 models and a comparison to the ten strongest historical events.
Plot showing an older version of the NASA S2S forecast for El Niño development in 2015/16 and the actual warming that occurred.
Plot segmented by month showing model forecasts for the Relative Oceanic Nino Index (rONI) during 2026 as well as historical record highs.
Plot segmented by month showing model forecasts for the Relative Oceanic Nino Index (rONI) during 2026 as well as historical record highs.
Time series chart of the Relative Oceanic Nino Index (rONI) applied to Berkeley Earth Data since 1850. A 3-month moving averages is plotted as well as a 95% uncertainty range. El Niño events have rONI > 0.5 C, and La Niña have rONI < -0.5 C.
Time series of March average temperature in the Western USA from ERA5 and Berkeley Earth
Model forecasts for El Niño / La Niña state and intensity during the rest of 2026. Based on dynamical model ensemble and relative ONI, adjusted for the average temperature of the oceans.
Time series chart of the land average of daily temperature range from Berkeley Earth and ERA5.
Time series chart of changes in the land-average of daily minimum and daily maximum temperature.
Time series chart 1880 to 2025 of the land average of diurnal temperature range.
Comparison maps over California of annual average temperature anomalies in the year 2022 from the low-resolution and high-resolution versions of Berkeley Earth.
Time series of daily max temperature in Centerville, South Dakota for each year 1905 to 2026.
Time series plot showing the regional mean of TMAX in the Western USA for the hottest March day of each year 1940 to 2026. Data from ERA5. Historical statistical estimates of the evolving probability distributions are also shown. The warmth in 2026 and the relative cold in 2023 appear as stark outliers
Times series plot showing the regional mean of TMAX in the Western USA for the hottest March day of each year 1940 to 2026. Data from ERA5. Historical statistical estimates of the evolving probability distributions are also shown. The warmth in 2026 and the relative cold in 2023 appear as stark outliers.
Three panel image from the IPCC showing examples of how climate distributions can shift due to changes in mean, in variance, or both.
Image from the New York Times showing USDA data on the snow pack depth in areas feeding the Colorado River. March 2026 is the lowest on record.
US Drought Monitor map for March 24, 2026.
Map over North America of March average temperature anomalies from CDAS showing the US heatwave and relative cooling over Northern Canada and Alaska.
Map of atmospheric pressure anomalies over North America for March 19, 2026, showing the high pressure system that built the heat dome / heat wave.
Plot showing for each year 1940 to 2026 the daily TMAX averaged across the Western USA. The year 2026 is highlighted as well as the expected daily mean.
Same as the previous image, but only showing record fractions for March.
Time series from 1925 to 2026 showing the fraction of active us weather stations that set a new monthly record for the warmest daily max temperature. Only stations with at least 30 years of prior observations at the time being considered are included.
Histogram showing the number of active US weather stations that borke their monthly record in 2026 by the amount of the new record.
Time series of daily TMAX for each year in Sedan, KS from 1893 to 2026. The year 2026 is highlighted, showing extraordinary warmth.
Time series of the monthly average of daily TMAX measurements from Phoenix, AZ.
Time series for daily TMAX each year in Phoenix, AZ from 1933 to 2026. The time series for 2026 is highlighted as well as the expected daily mean.
Map of US weather stations from GHCN-D that during March 2026 set new records (or tied) for the warmest day ever observed in March.
Time series plot of changes in March monthly average temperature in the Western USA from 1850 to 2026 for both Berkeley Earth and ERA5. March 2026 was an extreme outlier.
GFS map of temperature anomalies over the contiguous USA for March 21, 2026.
Map of new daily and monthly temperature records set at weather stations in the USA.
Map of US weather stations that have recently set daily or monthly record highs. From CoolWX.com
Plot wrapping daily maximum temperature history for Phoenix, Arizona for every year since 1933, and showing the anomalously high temperatures in 2026.
Time series chart showing the fraction of new car sales by year that are electric for China and selected other countries.
Bar chart showing the history of polling on US concern about global warming.
Time series chart of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere showing the IS92a scenario and the observed changes from Mauna Loa.
AI generated illustration of two frogs in a pot of boiling water on a stove. One frog says to the other "Don't worry. The stove is not real."
Time series plot of carbon dioxide levels over the last 10,000 years, combining ice core measurements and direct air measurements.
Plot showing all the different satellite TSI results since 1980 as well as sunspot observations.
Time series chart showing a 365-day moving average of 4 different estimates of the changes in total solar irradiance.