Ref Effect

@refeffect.bsky.social

31 Followers 11 Following

Attempting to track the effect penalties make on games. Currently still a work in progress. Ideas/Suggestions welcomed. Data from: ESPN Made by: @apalen.bsky.social Also available on X: @Ref_Effect

The following play with a penalty in the Buccaneers @ Lions game caused a 11.24% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Bills @ Dolphins game caused a 7.16% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Rams @ Lions game caused a 15.78% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Rams @ Lions game caused a 7.27% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Rams @ Lions game caused a 10.62% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Broncos @ Seahawks game caused a 12.57% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Vikings @ Giants game caused a 10.22% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Vikings @ Giants game caused a 7.68% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Dolphins game caused a 9.68% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Dolphins game caused a 9.72% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Dolphins game caused a 15.66% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Texans @ Colts game caused a 7.12% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Texans @ Colts game caused a 7.94% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Cardinals @ Bills game caused a 7.15% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Cardinals @ Bills game caused a 7.04% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Steelers @ Falcons game caused a 7.13% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Packers @ Eagles game caused a 8.57% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Packers @ Eagles game caused a 8.8% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Ravens @ Chiefs game caused a 9.05% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Vikings @ Lions game caused a 7.95% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the 49ers @ Cardinals game caused a 10.7% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Saints @ Buccaneers game caused a 13.08% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Saints @ Buccaneers game caused a 8.17% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Saints @ Buccaneers game caused a 16.58% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Saints @ Buccaneers game caused a 7.31% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Giants @ Eagles game caused a 10.06% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Giants @ Eagles game caused a 10.0% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Bills @ Patriots game caused a 7.38% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Colts game caused a 7.71% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Colts game caused a 7.71% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Colts game caused a 7.71% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Colts game caused a 7.71% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Colts game caused a 7.71% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Colts game caused a 7.71% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Colts game caused a 7.71% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Colts game caused a 7.71% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Colts game caused a 7.71% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Colts game caused a 7.71% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Colts game caused a 7.71% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Colts game caused a 7.71% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Colts game caused a 7.71% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Colts game caused a 7.71% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Colts game caused a 7.71% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Colts game caused a 7.71% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Colts game caused a 7.71% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Colts game caused a 7.71% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Colts game caused a 7.71% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Colts game caused a 7.71% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Colts game caused a 7.71% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Colts game caused a 7.71% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Colts game caused a 7.71% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Colts game caused a 7.71% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Colts game caused a 7.71% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Colts game caused a 7.71% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Colts game caused a 7.71% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Colts game caused a 7.71% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Colts game caused a 7.71% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Colts game caused a 7.71% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Colts game caused a 7.71% change in win probability
The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Colts game caused a 7.71% change in win probability