Russ Schumacher

@rschumacher.cloud

6120 Followers 1776 Following

"an upbeat atmospheric science professor" -- theverge | sometimes it snows in April | Fort Collins, Colorado | personal account

Map of points exceeding the 1000-yr average recurrence interval for 6-h precipitation as of 1200 UTC 10 July 2026. There is a swath of points in southeastern Missouri that exceeded this threshold.
Screenshot from the interactive maps showing the rainfall from the September 2013 Colorado flood in the inset.
Points with precipitation exceeding the 1000-yr ARI during 1981–2022 for (a) PRISM, 24 h; (b) CONUS404, 24 h; (c) PRISM, 48 h; (d) CONUS404, 48 h; (e) PRISM, 72 h; and (f) CONUS404, 72 h. Points are color shaded by year according to the legend at the bottom. All grid points are based on the 4-km latitude/longitude grid discussed in the text, but the circles are enlarged for greater readability. The outline for the Southwest region discussed in section 3b is shown in (a). The locations of the swaths associated with the 2015 South Carolina storm and Hurricane Florence (2018) are annotated in (e).
Photo of Russ and Brian at the American Association of State Climatologists meeting
Storm Prediction center Mesoscale Discussion #1212 Valid Until: 06/20/26 3:15 PM MDT Concerning: Severe Potential Watch Likely Watch Probability: 80% 582 Potential for a couple of strong tornadoes highest. Fields Plotted 1908Z MRMS RALA 18Z 500 mb Height (dam; blue), 850 mb Temperature (C; red), and Surface Dewpoint (F; green) Scattered intensifying storms with potential for large hail and locally damaging wind gusts by 2-4 PM MDT.
Baca County Emergency Management · Baca County CO Urgent: Mandatory evacuations are now in place for Town Campo and Rd 24 to Rd 36 south of Rd J to State Line due to wildfire. Active threat to life and property do not wait. Check on neighbors. Call 911 only for life threat emergencies. Evacuate to the north as fires are south moving northwest. Shelter open at Springfield School.
radar animation in the central US showing the "bow and arrow" convective structure
a white cat sticking its head out of a box of Kirkland coffee pods
big foot in the back of a gray pickup truck on the road
Photo of a ruler measuring 5.3” of snowfall
NWS Boulder high-end snow amount graphic, showing 7" in Fort Collins, 4" in Denver, 9" in Boulder.
Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast for Colorado and surroundings, showing >1" of precipitation over all of northern Colorado and >3" in parts of the northern mountains.
Rain Gauge Rally 2026 April 1-30, 2026 CoCoRaHS How many new volunteers can you recruit in your state?
Denver Post article: $350 million vision for gondola transit in downtown Denver to be presented People who want to move around downtown Denver could glide in gondola cabins 30 feet above ground if the city were to embrace a businessman’s $350 million plan.
Lance Bosart and Morris Weisman in front of a conference poster commemorating the 10th anniversary of the challenge of convective forecasting colloquium
a white cat pawing at a computer screen showing “Colorado drought update”
a picture of Flavio giving his presentation in front of some depressing graphs of future snowpack projections
map of daily records that are forecast to be tied/broken on Wednesday March 25. A broad swath of the western US has numbers on the map, including in Colorado: 88 in Denver, 91 in Pueblo, and 83 in Alamosa. From https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/exper/ndfd/ndfd.html
Map of CoAgMET high temperatures for March 21, 2026, with highs in the 90s on the eastern plains, 70s in the mountains, and 80s on the western slope. From https://coagmet.colostate.edu
500-hPa height from the 00 UTC 18 March 2026 GFS forecast. Top left is the ERA5 max for March over 1951-2025; top right is the maximum predicted in the model over the run out to 360 hrs; bottom left is the difference between the two, and bottom right is the number of 6-hr forecast times that would be above the ERA5 monthly max. It shows broad areas where the 500-hPa height will be more than 50 m higher than previously observed in March, and the entire southwest will spend at least two full days in monthly record territory
500-hPa height from the 00 UTC 14 March 2026 IFS forecast. Top left is the ERA5 max for March; top right is the maximum predicted in the model over the run out to 360 hrs; bottom left is the difference between the two, and bottom right is the number of 6-hr forecast times that would be above the ERA5 monthly max. It shows broad areas where the 500-hPa height will be more than 50 m higher than previously observed in March, and the entire southwest will spend at least two full days in monthly record territory
500-hPa height from the 00 UTC 14 March 2026 GFS forecast. Top left is the ERA5 max for March; top right is the maximum predicted in the model over the run out to 360 hrs; bottom left is the difference between the two, and bottom right is the number of 6-hr forecast times that would be above the ERA5 monthly max. It shows broad areas where the 500-hPa height will be more than 50 m higher than previously observed in March, and the entire southwest will spend at least two full days in monthly record territory
Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Breezy. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 42. Breezy. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 45. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 90.
CSU closed March 13 Colorado State University is closed March 13. All in-person, hybrid and remote classes and operations, including meetings and work functions, are canceled for all Larimer County campuses. CSU crews are assessing damage after high winds in the Fort Collins area, with damaged trees the primary concern.
NWS Fire Weather and Wind Overview March 12, 2026 From https://www.weather.gov/media/bou/DssPacket.pdf Key Messages ➔ Prolonged period of strong, gusty winds and critical fire weather conditions today through Saturday ◆ Strongest (high) winds today ◆ High confidence in critical fire weather conditions each day through Saturday ● Mainly plains and lowest foothills ● Above 7,000-7,500 feet, some aspects less receptive due to recent snow ➔ Wind uncertainties: Very sharp gradient in strong winds near base of foothills today. ➔ Golden-Boulder-Fort Collins on this gradient, but Fort Collins most susceptible in this event. ➔ Channels of wind Denver metro East & South
a photo of a worn and faded Valparaiso University lanyard with a REV 105 keychain on it
photo of a hand holding a ruler measuring 1.5 inches of snow
graph showing the number of days in December through February with temperatures of 60F or above at Fort Collins, Colorado. This year had 43 which is almost double the previous high of 22.
Map of CoCoRaHS 24-hour snowfall observations on the morning of February 23, 2026, around New Jersey/NY/CT. It shows several observations of over 20" of snow.
Time series of forecast skill measured by threat score (higher is better) from the Weather Prediction Center. Skill has steadily risen over the decades from 1961 to 2024. From https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/hpcverif.shtml
radar image from southwestern Colorado showing a line of convection with reflectivity in the 'yellow' range
NOAA Weather Prediction Center 72-h 50th percentile snowfall forecast through the morning of Thurs Feb 19. It shows totals over 24” across most of Colorado’s high elevations. Available from https://climate.colostate.edu/drought/#outlook
map of Colorado snowpack as a percent of the 1991-2020 median from the University of Arizona dataset. Statewide, it's 32.5% of median.
a white cat looking at the camera inside an empty box that says “cat meowstery box”
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Water Supply Forecasts February 1, 2026 UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN Basin Volume (KAF) %Normal (1991-2020) Period Lake Powell 2400 38 Apr-Jul Green River Basin Green-Flaming Gorge Reservoir 630 65 Apr-Jul Yampa-Deerlodge 630 53 Apr-Jul Duchesne-Tabiona 53 51 Apr-Jul Colorado River Headwaters Colorado-Kremmling 470 54 Apr-Jul Eagle-Gypsum 168 50 Apr-Jul Roaring Fork-Glenwood Springs 360 55 Apr-Jul Colorado-Cameo 1200 53 Apr-Jul Southwest Colorado Gunnison-Blue Mesa Reservoir 340 54 Apr-Jul Dolores-McPhee Reservoir 134 53 Apr-Jul San Juan-Navajo Reservoir 300 48 Apr-Jul Animas-Durango 235 61 Apr-Jul LOWER COLORADO RIVER BASIN Virgin-Virgin (*Regulated) 29 52 Apr-Jul Little Colorado-Chevelon Creek 4.9 35 Jan-May Verde-Above Horseshoe Dam 119 77 Jan-May Salt-Roosevelt 80 32 Jan-May Upper Gila-San Carlos Reservoir 27 37 Jan-May GREAT BASIN Bear-UT/WY State Line 59 54 Apr-Jul Weber-Oakley 61 55 Apr-Jul Big Cottonwood Creek 18.5 54 Apr-Jul Provo-Woodland 48 50 Apr-Jul Sevier-Hatch 21 40 Apr-Jul Apr-Jul runoff volumes as a percent of the 1991-2020 average. Jan-May runoff volumes as a percent of the 1991-2020 median.
Amir presenting a slide showing the share of irrigation demand from snowmelt for different crops
Robin speaking next to a slide that says KARE-11 Bridging the Eye-Radar Divide: Dr. Roger Wakimoto's Contributions to Tornado Photogrammetry-Radar Synthesis Dr. Robin Tanamachi Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Purdue University
Paul Markowski presenting a slide with a picture of Roger Wakimoto in front mobile radars. The text says Observing the Atmosphere with Purpose: Roger Wakimoto's Early Legacy in Mesoscale Meteorology • Roger's pioneering investigations-spanning boundary-layer eddies, clear-air mesocyclones, downbursts, microbursts, bow echoes, and tornadoes-set new benchmarks for observational rigor and physical insight. • Roger's meticulous analyses and perceptive syntheses of field observations provided foundational understanding across this broad spectrum of mesoscale phenomena.
Wayne on the AMS stage giving his acceptance speech for the Rossby Medal
Same figure as above, except now precipitation is shown as 30-day rolling averages compared to the long-term normal, instead of as a deficit/surplus over the water year. It shows most of August was extremely dry in Colorado, followed by wet Sept-Oct, and dry Nov.
Time series graph of temperature and precipitation for Colorado with respect to average, and beneath each graph is a map showing the temperature or precipitation anomalies for each month. This is for calendar year 2025, in which all months but January were warmer than average, and it was drier than average overall.
7-day precipitation forecast for Colorado and surroundings. There is only a tiny amount of precipitation forecast for Thursday the 15th, when the average is 1-2" in the mountains. From https://climate.colostate.edu/drought/#outlook
map of temperature rankings for October through December 2025 in Colorado, based on PRISM data. Nearly the entire state is in a dark brown color which corresponds to record warmest. Some splotches of being in the top-10 warmest are scattered across the state. From https://climate.colostate.edu/co_cag/rank_maps_prism.html
Xylophone concert from Bob’s Burgers “The Plight before Christmas” Image from https://bobs-burgers.fandom.com/wiki/The_Plight_Before_Christmas
a white kitten in a US Postal Service box
scatter plot of duration on the x-axis vs temperature change on the y-axis, for several cases in the literature. The December 2022 front had larger temperature drops than all but the Spearfish, SD case reported by Hamann (1943).
Particularly Dangerous Situation! ● Foothills & along CO Highway 93 westward! ● Gusts of 85-100 mph possible from Hwy 93 corridor westward ● Sustained winds, in the same corridor, of 45-55 MPH. ● Relative humidity: 8 to 20 percent ● Uncertainty: If the strongest winds make it past Hwy 93/US 36
a photo of a bin with many different kinds of tape
Photo of a ruler measuring 6.1” of snow