Sam Crawley

@samcrawley.bsky.social

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Political Science postdoc researcher at Victoria University of Wellington (New Zealand). My research focusses on politics of climate change, and on comparative politics in general. NZ & Climate politics blog: https://threelongyears.crawley.nz/

Dot plot titled "New Zealand is mid-pack on paying for the environment", showing each country's mean willingness to pay higher prices and higher taxes to protect the environment (1 = very unwilling, 5 = very willing), ISSP 2020. New Zealand, highlighted, sits near the middle with a mean of 2.9 for higher prices and 2.7 for higher taxes, below countries such as India (3.8 for higher prices), Switzerland (3.4) and the United States (3.1). Willingness to pay higher taxes is lower than willingness to pay higher prices in every country.
Dot plot titled "New Zealand ranks high for environmental concern", showing mean environmental concern (1 = not at all, 5 = very concerned) by country, ISSP 2020. New Zealand, highlighted, has a mean of 4.1, the third highest of the 28 countries, behind only Spain (4.3) and Slovenia (4.2). The lowest are Slovakia (3.3), Thailand (3.3) and South Africa (3.4).
Six-panel line chart titled "Green and Te Pāti Māori voters most back environment spending", showing the percentage wanting more government spending on the environment by party vote, NZES 1996–2023, with separate panels for ACT, National, NZ First, Labour, Te Pāti Māori and Green. In 2023, support was highest among Green (91%) and Te Pāti Māori (87%) voters, followed by Labour (69%), and lowest among ACT (32%), National (31%) and NZ First (30%) voters. No majority of National or ACT voters has wanted more spending in any year.
Line chart titled "Support for more environment spending has increased", showing the percentage of New Zealanders wanting more versus less government spending on the environment, NZES 1996–2023. The "more" line stays well above the "less" line throughout, rising from 40% in 1996 to a peak of 63% in 2017, then easing to 59% in 2020 and 51% in 2023. The "less" line stays low, between 4% and 12%, ending at 12% in 2023. The question was not asked in 2008.
Line chart titled "Spending on the environment increasingly divides left and right", showing the percentage wanting more government spending on the environment by left–right self-placement, NZES 1996–2023. The left line rises from 57% in 1996 to 84% in 2023. The right line is consistently lowest, near 26% in 1996, climbing to 48% in 2017 before falling to 31% in 2023. The centre line sits between the two, ending at 51% in 2023.
Small-multiples line chart titled "Labour and Green voters consistently the most satisfied with democracy", showing the share of each party's voters satisfied (fairly or very) with the way democracy works, 1996–2023, from NZES data excluding "don't know". Six panels, one per party, each on a 0–100% scale. ACT runs from 83% in 1996 down to a low of 49% in 2011, up to 78% in 2020, then 58% in 2023. National starts at 83% in 1996, bottoms out near 50% in 2005, peaks at 86% in 2014 and sits at 70% in 2023. NZ First is the consistently lowest, mostly in the 52–72% range, ending at 65%. Labour stays high, from 69% in 1996 to a peak of 90% in 2020 and 83% in 2023, with dips to around 60% in 2011 and 58% in 2014. Te Pāti Māori (data from 2005) ranges from the high 50s to 69%, then falls sharply to 36% in 2023. Green is consistently among the most satisfied, in the 65–91% range, peaking at 91% in 2020 and ending at 78%.
Diverging stacked bar chart titled "New Zealanders are among the more satisfied with how democracy works", showing satisfaction with the way democracy works across 16 countries from CSES Module 6 (2021–2026), excluding "don't know". Each country's bar splits dissatisfied responses (not at all, not very) to the left of centre and satisfied responses (fairly, very) to the right, and countries are ordered from most to least satisfied. New Zealand, highlighted, sits sixth from the top with 63% fairly satisfied and 9% very satisfied — 72% satisfied overall. Above it are Switzerland (86% satisfied), Denmark (84%), Sweden (84%), Australia (80%) and Taiwan (78%). Below New Zealand satisfaction falls away through Austria, Montenegro, Poland, France and Portugal, down to the least satisfied countries: Slovenia (34%), Türkiye (31%) and Brazil (28%).
Bar chart titled "Most New Zealanders rate the country as strongly democratic", showing where respondents place NZ on a scale from not at all democratic (0) to completely democratic (10), NZES 2023, excluding "don't know". The distribution is heavily skewed towards the democratic end. Ratings of 0, 1 and 2 each draw about 1%, rising to 3% at both 3 and 4, then 11% at 5, 11% at 6, 19% at 7, a peak of 24% at 8, 14% at 9 and 12% at 10. A dashed line marks the mean rating of 7.1. Ratings of 8 or higher account for 50% of responses.
Diverging stacked bar chart titled "Most New Zealanders are satisfied with how democracy works", using NZES 2023 data and excluding "don't know" responses. The top panel, "Satisfaction with the way democracy works", shows 5% of respondents not at all satisfied and 24% not very satisfied (left of centre), against 63% fairly satisfied and 8% very satisfied (right of centre) — 71% satisfied overall. The bottom panel, "Democracy always preferable to other forms of government", shows 1% strongly disagree, 4% somewhat disagree and 10% neither, against 29% somewhat agree and 56% strongly agree — about 85% agreeing democracy is preferable.
Stacked bar chart titled "Most New Zealanders say speaking English is key to 'true' NZ identity", showing how important three factors are for being a 'true New Zealander' (NZES 2023, excluding 'don't know'). Response categories from left to right: Not important at all (dark blue), Not very important (light blue), Fairly important (orange), Very important (red). Grandparents born in New Zealand is rated least important: 39% not important at all, 38% not very important, 15% fairly important, and only 8% very important. Born in New Zealand is more split: 24% not important at all, 34% not very important, 22% fairly important, and 20% very important. Can speak English is rated most important: 9% not important at all, 15% not very important, 37% fairly important, and 39% very important — 76% rate it important.
Diverging bar chart titled "Higher earners lean more pro-immigration", showing views on NZ immigration levels by household income bracket (NZES 2023). Response categories are: Reduced a lot, Reduced a little, About the same, Increased a little, Increased a lot. The topmost group, $183,570 and over, shows only 18% wanting a reduction and 42% wanting an increase — one of only two income groups that lean pro-immigration on average. $123,435–$183,569 leans slightly pro-immigration, with 28% wanting a reduction and 32% an increase. $80,180–$123,434 and $44,521–$80,179 show mild anti-immigration pluralities, while $44,520 or less shows the strongest anti-immigration views, with 46% wanting reduction and 24% an increase. The no income group is an outlier, with 72% wanting immigration to stay about the same.
Dot plot titled "New Zealanders most open to immigration globally", ranking 29 countries by mean response to 'The number of immigrants should be...' on a 1–5 scale where 1 means increased a lot, 3 means remain the same, and 5 means reduced a lot (ISSP 2023 National Identity IV). A dashed line marks 3. New Zealand (highlighted in blue) scores 2.87 — the lowest of the 29 countries. It is one of four below the midpoint of 3 (with Thailand 2.88, Lithuania 2.89, and Taiwan 2.94), meaning that in those countries the average respondent leans toward wanting more immigration. At the other extreme, Russia scores 4.17, followed by Hungary (4.09), Greece (4.06), and the Netherlands (4.03). Australia scores 3.49, Canada 3.48, and the United States 3.51.
Heat-map tile chart showing the percentage of voters citing immigration as the most important issue, by party vote, 2008–2023. Immigration salience peaked sharply in 2017 and has since fallen. Among all voters: 0.2% in 2008, 1.3% in 2014, 6% in 2017, 1.5% in 2020, 0.6% in 2023. The 2017 peak was most pronounced for NZ First voters (22%), compared to 6.7% in 2014 and 3% in 2020. In 2017, it was also elevated for Labour (6.7%) and National (4.4%) voters. Te Pāti Māori showed a different pattern, peaking at 5.9% in 2020. ACT data is unavailable for 2014 and 2017 (grey cells).
Horizontal stacked bar chart showing views on immigration levels by 2023 party vote, excluding "don't know" responses. NZ First voters most strongly favour reduction: 27% reduced a lot and 27% reduced a little (combined 54%), with only 17% wanting an increase. ACT voters are more divided: 40% favour reduction but 36% favour an increase. Te Pāti Māori lean toward reduction (39% combined) but with a substantial pro-immigration share (30%). Labour and National are similar: 33–36% favour reduction and 25–29% favour an increase. Green voters are the most pro-immigration: 41% want an increase and only 19% want a reduction.
Stacked bar chart showing views on immigration levels in New Zealand, 1996–2023. Answer categories were: Reduced a lot, reduced a little, about the same, increased a little, increased a lot. Support for reduction was highest in 1996, when 57% wanted immigration reduced (28% a lot, 29% a little). The levels are mostly consistent throughout the period, except in 1999 and 2023. In 2023 only 34% wanted a reduction (15% reduced a lot, 19% reduced a little), while those wanting an increase rose to 28% (20% increased a little, 8% increased a lot). The "About the same" category has remained broadly stable between 32% and 40%. The 2020 wording differed slightly, asking about levels "compared to before COVID-19".
Mean left-right self-placement by gender on a 0–10 scale, 1996–2023. Men average around 5.5 and women around 5.2 across most elections, though the gap narrows to near zero in 2008 and 2011. Non-binary/gender diverse respondents (n = 10–15 per survey, shown from 2020) averaged 2.8 in 2020 and 3.5 in 2023 — well to the left of both men and women.
Gender gap in party vote (women % minus men %) for five parties, 1996–2023. Labour's gap peaked at around 11 percentage points in 2020 before falling to near zero in 2023. Green fluctuates around zero. ACT and NZ First show consistently negative gaps across the entire period. National's gap turned positive in 2023, with women 3 points more likely than men to vote National.
Party vote by gender, 2023. Women were more likely to vote National (41% vs 37%), Labour (28% vs 26%), and Green (12% vs 10%). Men were more likely to vote ACT (10% vs 6%) and NZ First (7% vs 6%).
Line chart of five deliberative democracy sub-components for New Zealand from 2010 to 2025. Since the current government took office in late 2023 (shaded region), Common good justification fell from 3.5 to 2.3, Respect for counterarguments fell from 2.5 to 1.6, Reasoned justification and Consultation also declined. Engaged society was the exception, rising above 4.0.
Horizontal lollipop chart showing Liberal Democracy Index scores for 18 peer countries in 2025. Denmark ranks first at 0.88, with Sweden, Norway, and Switzerland close behind. New Zealand ranks 14th at 0.79, level with Australia (12th) and above the UK (30th, 0.69) and USA (51st, 0.57). NZ, Australia, UK, and USA are highlighted in colour.
Horizontal lollipop chart showing Deliberative Democracy Index scores for 18 peer countries in 2025. Denmark ranks first at 0.87. New Zealand ranks 37th at 0.64, near the bottom of the group and below Australia (12th, 0.77), the UK (31st, 0.67), and most other comparable democracies. The USA ranks 58th at 0.48. NZ, Australia, UK, and USA are highlighted in colour.
Average party feeling score (0–10) for Labour and National by most important issue, 2023 NZES. Economy voters: National 7, Labour 4. Cost of living voters: Labour 5.5, National 5.1 — nearly equal. Health voters: Labour 6.2, National 4.9.
Which party voters thought best to handle their most important issue, 2023 NZES. For economy voters, National dominated at 78.8%. For cost of living voters, responses were fragmented: National 37.5%, Labour 23.6%, no party 15.2%. Health voters favoured Labour at 37%, with National at 25.1%.
Most important issue facing NZ among 2023 NZES respondents. Economy led at 17.5%, followed closely by cost of living at 16.7%, then health at 7.9%. All other issues were below 6%.
Overall support for stronger government policies to reduce carbon emissions, 2020 vs 2023. Support weakened: agreement fell from 61.7% to 50.4%.
Support for stronger climate policy by left-right position, 2020 vs 2023. Left-leaning respondents decreased support slightly from about 88% to 83%, while right-leaning respondents dropped sharply from about 52% to 29%.
Opinion on whether the Treaty of Waitangi should be part of the law, split by left/right voting bloc, 1996–2023. Coalition party voters are substantially more likely to support removal, with a gap of 34 percentage points between blocs in 2023.