Sam Indyk

@samindyk.bsky.social

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Markets reporter at Reuters in London. Leeds fan, for my sins

Noah Okafor of Leeds United. Credit: IMAGO/Action Plus via Reuters Connect
Jefferies chart showing Europe Jet-fuel Inventory Days Demand. Euro Jet Fuel Stocks - already at 5yr lows - run the risk of depletion in months without Middle East imports. A gradual export resumption likely sees Jet Fuel inventory deplete further below its 5yr range With no resumption, Jet Fuel inventory could be fully drawn down by October
EBITDA - Earnings before Iran, Tariffs, and Donald Announcements
Table of asset performance when stocks fall and oil rises from GS note
Picture of Luke Littler with Sir Chris Hoy
A balcony with a Leeds flag draped over it
Picture of the Pope on a plane holding a baseball bat
Video of Leeds fans singing
Snippet of barclays equity research note on UK banking sector
Daniel James goal vs Middlesbrough
Meme of Antonio Conte saying "One regular day of news, that's all I ask for. Will never happen"
Who wants Michel Barnier’s head? Answer: just about everyone. The prime minister does not have the support of the President of the Republic (who is on the opposite political side) and the leaders of the four parties that form his coalition are rivals who cordially detest one another. For the opposition parties, Michel Barnier is a political opponent who must be brought down in the hope of taking his place. This is the normal political game. Finally, with regard to public opinion, it can only associate Barnier’s name with that of a man who promises tax increases and cuts in benefits. Nothing that is likely to make you very popular!
Given the totality of today's evidence, we think this firmly establishes Taylor on the dovish side of centre in his assessment of the UK outlook and the required policy response. We saw little to update our view of Mann as the most hawkish member of the committee, and we think the net tone of Bailey and Lombardelli remains balanced around a default of quarterly cuts
The weakest quarter for luxury demand might have passed, according to Bank of America equity strategists, who nevertheless say revenues are likely to remain challenged or negative through the first half of next year. European luxury names .STXLUXP are down 2.9% this year as demand has stagnated, particularly in China, while the broader market is up 4.1% BofA says sector revenues for luxury goods came in at -3% in the third quarter - in other words, one of the biggest declines ever recorded excluding COVID. "Data we track suggests that luxury demand has slightly improved in Oct, but we think it's too soon to say that tough trading is behind us," writes the BofA team. "Whilst top-down pressure on the consumer will ease, more fashion content, newness and branded product is required to re-engage consumers and drive a recovery in traffic and volumes," they write, looking ahead to the first half of 2025. The improvement in October came from China and the U.S., while Japan continued to slow, they add. Zooming in to China demand, it's more a case of "less bad" than anything good. "In 4Q so far, China retail sales improved in Oct (+5%, from +3% in 3Q), and China jewellery sales were flat (from -8% in 3Q)." In the U.S., luxury spending was -5% in October, from -8% in the third quarter. (Lucy Raitano) *****
We are entering a benign part of the cycle; interest rate cuts that coincide with economic growth tend to be supportive for equities. Nevertheless, global equities have already risen 40% since October 2023 leaving them more vulnerable to any disappointments. Equity valuations have increased and leave little room for further valuation expansion. We expect index returns to be driven largely by earnings growth. We forecast total equity returns in US$ of 10% through to the end of 2025. Given high valuations and unusually high concentration in equity markets, we focus on diversification to improve risk adjusted returns. We prefer a more eclectic mix of sector and styles with an increase in focus on Alpha relative to Beta. We highlight 4 themes: market broadening opportunities, selective value, geographical diversification and enhanced capital market activity.
Line chart showing Citi Economic Surprise Indexes for the UK and Euro Zone. The chart shows economic surprises in the euro zone improving and UK worsening