Seth Wynes

@sethwynes.bsky.social

772 Followers 139 Following

Assistant Professor at the University of Waterloo. Climate, policy, housing, AI risks.

Global surface temperature change relative to pre-industrial times (A), and task duration that state-of-the-art AI systems can complete with 50% reliability (B). Note the logarithmic y-axis in Panel B. Task duration estimates are from METR (Kwa et al., 2025). Forecasted artificial general intelligence (AGI) range includes lower 25%, median, and upper 75% estimates from forecasting platform Metaculus as of December 2025. Climate data from IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report SPM.4 (a) and Figure 3.3(a)(IPCC, 2024).