SPC Fire Weather Outlooks Alerts (UNOFFICIAL)

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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MONTANA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA INTO THE HARNEY BASIN... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place across the western and central CONUS tomorrow (Sunday). A belt of stronger mid-level flow will overspread the northern Sierra and pivot clockwise around the upper ridge to the northern High Plains, supporting dry and gusty conditions near the surface. As this flow is mixed downward to the surface by a deep and dry boundary layer during the afternoon areas, widespread 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will be common. Given RH dipping to at least 20 percent, widespread Elevated highlights have been introduced, from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Rockies and northern High Plains. Additionally, guidance consensus continues to indicate locally stronger surface wind fields, atop dry fuels, over portions of northern Montana and the northern Sierra to Harney Basin. Over both of these areas, 15 percent RH will coincide with the stronger winds for several hours, warranting Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will prevail over the western and central CONUS today. A belt of stronger mid-level flow, accompanied by embedded mid-level impulses, will traverse the periphery of the upper ridge and overspread the West Coast toward the northern Rockies. This belt of stronger flow aloft will support dry and windy conditions supportive of wildfire spread, with deep-layer ascent associated with embedded impulses also supporting dry thunderstorm initiation, especially over portions of Montana. ...Parts of the northern Sierra to the northern Rockies... Through the afternoon, a dry boundary layer will mix upward to the mid-levels, allowing for downward momentum transport of the aforementioned stronger mid-level flow aloft. By afternoon peak heating, sustained southwesterly surface winds exceeding 20 mph should become widespread, especially in terrain favoring areas, from the northern Sierra to the northern Rockies. Fifteen percent RH should be common by afternoon peak heating, overlapping with many areas experiencing 20+ mph sustained winds, warranting widespread Critical highlights given dry fuels. ...Portions of Montana... Guidance consensus (including high-resolution members) depicts at least scattered thunderstorm development across much of Montana by afternoon as a mid-level impulse overspreads the region. Forecast soundings show classic inverted-v profiles extending up to 500 mb, amid appreciable flow aloft. As such, fast-moving and high-based storms will promote dry lightning strikes over fuel beds receptive to fire spread, warranting isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. Furthermore, strong vertical wind shear will accompany the mid-level impulse, and given appreciable buoyancy aloft, several of these storms may produce strong to severe wind gusts, which may exacerbate any ongoing fires or holdovers. Please see the latest Day 1 Convective outlook for more details on the severe thunderstorm threat. ..Squitieri.. 07/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... Between a midlevel trough moving across BC and an expansive large-scale ridge over the central/western CONUS, enhanced deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread a deep/dry boundary layer (around 10-15 percent RH) in the lee of the northern Sierra and Cascades. These dry conditions combined with around 15 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon, given dry/receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 07/17/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will move northward along the Pacific Northwest coast today. Between this feature and an expansive upper ridge over the Rockies and Great Basin, a belt of enhanced south-southwesterly low/mid-level flow will overspread the northern Great Basin and Northwest. Downslope-enhanced warming/drying in the lee of the northern Cascades and Columbia Basin will result in deep boundary-layer mixing (10-15 percent RH). These warm/dry conditions combined with around 15 mph sustained southwesterly winds atop receptive fuels will yield elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 07/17/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... An expansive mid-level ridge will remain over the central U.S. as a surface trough lingers across the northern Plains, bringing another day of fire weather concerns to parts of the northern High Plains via dry and breezy conditions. Gusty onshore winds across the California Coastal Ranges into the Central Valley will promote a fire weather threat Wednesday as fuels continue to dry. ...Central California Coastal Ranges and Central Valley... Onshore flow aided by downslope drying and terrain accelerated winds will support elevated fire weather conditions across the central CA coastal ranges into the adjacent Central Valley. Fuels continue to dry with ERC values reaching the 90-95th percentile range under very warm temperatures. These winds generally from the west and northwest at 10-15 mph (locally 20-25 mph in favored terrain gaps) combined with RH of 15-20% in the coastal ranges to as low as 10% in the Central valley, will support elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon and early evening. ...Northern High Plains... Hot and dry conditions under a stagnant mid-level ridge over the central U.S. are expected across portions of the northern Plains Wednesday. At the surface, a trough over southeastern MT will bolster low-level southeasterly flow (up to 15 mph sustained) over portions of western SD, NE Panhandle and northern CO. These winds coinciding with RH in the 15-20% range will yield elevated fire weather conditions amid very dry fuels Wednesday afternoon. Elevated highlights were extended into central WY given latest forecast guidance with expected RH as low as 10 percent and steady easterly winds. ..Williams.. 07/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Broad ridging aloft will encompass much of the northern CONUS, promoting hot, dry conditions across portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. A surface trough extending northeastward into the western Dakotas will facilitate stronger low-level winds within the very dry air mass, heightening fire weather concerns across portions of the northern High Plains into central WY and north-central CO this afternoon. A mid-level trough approaching the Pacific Northwest along with a more restricted/peripheral monsoon moisture pool, will support isolated dry thunderstorms across the more complex terrain of northern CA into OR and far northwestern NV this afternoon. ...Northern High Plains and Central Wyoming... A broad subsidence regime in place across the central U.S. evidenced by recent water vapor satellite imagery will sustain very warm and dry conditions today while supporting well above normal temperatures for the Northern Plains. A surface trough will promote increasing southeast winds of around 15 mph across portions of the northern High Plains amid RH as low as 10 percent by peak heating. These conditions combined with critically dry fuels (ERCs in the 95-98th percentile range) will yield elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon. The wind direction veers to the east across central Wyoming amid a similarly dry fuelscape and low RH environment. A minor expansion of elevated highlights was warranted based on latest forecast guidance. ...Southern and Central Oregon into portions of northeastern California and northwestern Nevada... A plume of deeper monsoon moisture over the western Great Basin and Sierra Nevada will arc northward around the western edge of the mid-level ridge through early morning, reaching the Northern Rockies this afternoon. Peripheral moisture, with precipitable water values tapering off to 0.70" closer to the Cascade Crest will remain across portions of central OR into northern CA. An upper trough impinging upon the Pacific Northwest along with afternoon instability will promote isolated dry thunderstorms across northern CA and southern OR. Latest CAM guidance suggests a threat of nocturnal convection, lingering into early Wednesday morning, along and east of the OR Cascades as a subtle embedded wave accelerates northward across the region. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were expanded as far north as the Columbia River Gorge where fuels are incrementally more receptive. Anomalously high atmospheric moisture should support higher probabilities of wetting rain cores across eastern OR and northwest NV with precipitable water values ranging from 1.2-1.4". Thus, trimmed the eastern extent of isolated dry thunderstorm threat to account for expected mitigating rainfall. ..Williams.. 07/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... A strong upper high will persist over the central/northern Plains through the end of this week into the early weekend. Upper-level troughing will continue near and off the Pacific Northwest coast with monsoonal moisture streaming northward across much of the Intermountain West this week; meanwhile, daily monsoonal thunderstorms are likely across the Southwest into the Great Basin. An upper-level trough is forecast to move near/into the Pacific Northwest early Day 4/Thursday, potentially suppressing moisture south and eastward. However, model spread and ambiguity in the spatial extent/strength of troughing yields significant uncertainty in the progression of the upper pattern across the West. Farther east, a deep upper-level trough is expected to weaken the ridge over the Great Lakes and Northeast as it digs southward on Days 2-3/Tuesday-Wednesday, leading to unsettled conditions across the region through the remainder of the forecast period. ...Central to northern High Plains... Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are likely across portions of eastern Wyoming, western South Dakota, western Nebraska and eastern Colorado on Day 3/Wednesday through at least Day 4/Thursday. While RH is expected to recover overnight, south-southeast winds are likely to remain breezy amid dry fuels and hot daytime temperatures. 40% Critical probabilities have been maintained; however, may need to be confined in future outlooks as predictability increases in the evolution of the upper pattern. ...Portions of northeastern California and the Central Valley, western Great Basin, and far south-central Oregon... Warm daytime temperatures and low RH will contribute to drying fuels across the California Coastal Ranges into the Central Valley. ERCs are forecast to approach the 90-95th percentile mid-late week amid dry and breezy conditions, supporting any new ignitions and the emergence of lightning holdovers from wet/dry thunderstorms early in the forecast period. 40% Critical probabilities remain on Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday to account for this threat. Farther north, guidance has backed off on the timing of stronger winds overlapping low RH, resulting in 40% Critical probabilities being removed on Day 3/Wednesday across northeastern California and adjacent areas. Yet, the potential for stronger flow amid a returning dry airmass on Day 4/Thursday warrants the introduction of 40% Critical probabilities. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... Overall, this week exhibits a critical fire weather pattern for portions of the Intermountain West with hot, dry and windy conditions followed by thunderstorms, then dry and breezy conditions once again later in the week. An upper-level trough will move into southwest Canada Day 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday, with zonal westerly flow and a flattened ridge over the northern half to two-thirds of the West. As the upper-level ridge flattens, the upper high retrogrades off the southern California coast. A weak dry cold front will push through the Northwest and into the Great Basin mid-week, with moisture and above normal temperatures ahead of it. Moisture will likely push east of the Colorado Rockies and be suppressed southward to southern Arizona and New Mexico beyond Day 5/Friday as a ridge builds across the western CONUS. Forecast uncertainty exists late in the period regarding how an upper-level trough off the Pacific Northwest coast will interact with the likely building upper-level ridge over most of the West, especially the Intermountain West Day 6/Saturday - Day 8/Monday. ...Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday... Isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms remain likely across portions of the northern/eastern Great Basin into the Four Corners on Day 3/Wednesday. The 10% area was expanded into southern ID where a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms may overlap pockets of dry and receptive fuels. A 40% Critical area was maintained for low RH and gusty conditions in the Washington Cascade Gaps into the Columbia Basin, while a more expansive 40% Critical was introduced across much of the Great Basin into northern AZ. Dry and breezy conditions continue on Day 4/Thursday across the southern Great Basin into the Four Corners. Following several days of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms, these conditions could promote the emergence of any holdover lightning ignitions. ...Day 5-6/Friday-Saturday... An upper-level ridge will build across the western-central CONUS later this week, amplifying through the weekend. Meanwhile, upper troughing should persist over the Pacific Northwest, further enhancing southwesterly flow aloft and dry downslope flow over the northern Sierra Nevada into the southern Cascades. 40% Critical probabilities were introduced on both days where guidance depicts dry and windy conditions atop dry fuels. The spatial extent of drawn probabilities may be adjusted in future outlooks as extended guidance becomes better resolved. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/06/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST ARIZONA...EASTERN UTAH...WESTERN COLORADO...AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... Broad upper-level troughing will remain over the West with a shortwave moving from the southern Great Basin into the central Rockies. Southwest mid-level flow of 30-50 knots will overspread the greater Four Corners region as downslope flow and lee troughing are expected again on the central/southern High Plains. ...Greater Four Corners Region... Stronger southwest flow aloft will mix to the surface across the greater Four Corners region, resulting in southwest sustained winds of 15-25 mph amid minimum RH of 5-15%. Northeast Arizona through eastern Utah, western Colorado, and into far northwest New Mexico will have critical fire weather conditions for several hours, likely beginning by late morning and continuing into the evening. Locally extremely critical conditions are possible (5-20% probabilities) in eastern Utah and western Colorado during the afternoon, while locally critical fire weather conditions are likely along/east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains into the Front Range. Elevated conditions are expected in portions of eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico amid southerly winds of 15-20 mph and minimum RH of 15-20%, but the duration and magnitude are likely to be limited by thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Isolated mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely across portions of north-central New Mexico into south-central Colorado. Wetter storms and greater storm coverage are likely to the south and east of the IsoDryT area. Deep pyroconvection is possible on active large fires in the vicinity of the overlap of elevated/locally critical fire weather conditions and the IsoDryT area. ..Nauslar.. 06/30/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA...NORTHERN ARIZONA...NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH...SOUTHERN WYOMING...AND WESTERN COLORADO... ...Synopsis... A seasonably strong mid-level trough will continue to dig into the western CONUS on D2/Saturday, with an attendant mid-level jet overspreading much of the Upper Colorado River Basin. This will continue to support a robust fire weather pattern across an expansive portion of the Great Basin and Southwest through the weekend. ...Great Basin/Southwest... As the mid-level jet associated with the digging mid-level trough shifts eastward into the Upper Colorado River Valley, a corridor of stronger, sustained surface winds (25-30 mph) will expand from southeastern Nevada into the Colorado Plateau and overlap with very low RH values of 10-15%. Exacerbated by dry, windy conditions on D1/Friday, fuels will be very receptive, with ERCs already noted in the 80-90+ percentiles. These conditions will promote an extended period of critical fire weather conditions from southeastern Nevada into the Upper Colorado River Basin and southern Wyoming. Localized extremely critical wind/RH conditions are possible, particularly across southeastern Utah and perhaps into southwestern Colorado where latest high-res guidance suggests that the best overlap of sustained southwesterly winds approaching 30 mph and very low RH near 10% may occur. Pockets of fuels in this region are also noted to be at or above the 95th percentile. A broader area of elevated wind/RH conditions are expected across adjacent areas of the Great Basin/Southwest where sustained winds of 15-25 mph are forecast to overlap dry fuels and RH values of 10-20%. The primary change with this outlook was to expand the Critical highlights into north central Colorado based on the latest high-res guidance. Consideration was given to the addition of a targeted Extremely Critical area; however, some uncertainty remains regarding the duration of overlap between sustained winds exceeding 30 mph and RH values dropping below 10%. A portion of the Elevated highlights were also trimmed across central Wyoming and the foothills of northern Colorado owing to recent rainfall. ..Chalmers.. 06/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL UTAH INTO NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF UTAH...EASTERN NEVADA...NORTHERN ARIZONA...SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING...AND FAR WESTERN COLORADO... ...Synopsis... Dangerous fire weather conditions are forecast across portions of the Great Basin and Southwest today as a robust fire weather pattern begins for an expansive portion of the Intermountain West. This pattern will bring exceptionally dry and windy conditions following antecedent dry thunderstorm activity over the past 1-2 days, resulting in significant fire weather concerns for any new ignitions, lingering holdovers, and ongoing large fires across the western CONUS. ...Northwestern Arizona and far southeastern Nevada into central Utah... A seasonably strong mid-level trough will dig into the western CONUS today, with an attendant mid-level jet overspreading portions of the Great Basin as upper-level ridging amplifies over the Great Plains. This will promote a deepening surface cyclone over the northern Great Basin, which will subsequently support a strong surface pressure gradient across much of the Intermountain West when combined with surface high pressure over New Mexico. Latest high-res guidance continues to depict a corridor of strong southwesterly winds (sustained 25-35 mph) developing amid very low RH values of 5-15% from far southeastern Nevada and northwestern Arizona into central Utah. With very dry and receptive fuels across this region (ERCs in the 80-90+ percentiles) and ongoing large wildfire activity, these conditions will yield an extremely critical fire weather threat across this region. Deep boundary layer mixing coupled with the aforementioned mid-level jet will also promote wind gusts to 45 mph. A more expansive area of elevated to critical fire weather concerns is expected across adjacent areas of the Great Basin where modestly weaker sustained surface winds (generally 15-25 mph) are forecast to overlap very low RH values of 5-20%. An extended period of critical wind/RH conditions (perhaps 10+ hours for some locations), poor overnight humidity recoveries, and residual gusty winds are forecast. Only minor adjustments were made to the drawn areas with this update to reflect the latest available guidance, and minor trimming was done on the northeastern extent of the Elevated highlights in central Wyoming to account for heavier rainfall on Thursday. ...Colorado Plateau... Increasing mid-level flow and ascent ahead of the approaching mid-level trough (coupled with dry boundary layer profiles and PWAT values of 0.5-0.8") will support the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms this afternoon from northwestern New Mexico into much of western Colorado. While storm motions are anticipated to be generally 20-30+ kts, pockets of heavier rainfall totals are possible, especially across northwestern New Mexico and southwestern Colorado where the latest guidance suggests PWAT contents and storm coverage may be locally greater. Thus, a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is likely. Pockets of lingering receptive fuels (ERCs in the 80-90+ percentile) will continue to be receptive to lightning ignitions, however, and concerns regarding any lightning ignitions increase as multiple days of critical fire weather conditions are expected this weekend. ..Chalmers.. 06/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Flow aloft will increase over much of the southern US Tuesday as the southern stream upper low merges with the second trough over the northern and central US. As the upper-level troughs deepen, a surface low over OK will move southward ahead of a surging cold front over the Plains, while gusty winds are expected over parts of the eastern US. ...West TX... The cold front is expected to stall across the TX Panhandle Tuesday, pushing dry and breezy conditions farther south into Central/West Texas. South of the front, westerly winds of 10-20 mph are expected along with RH below 25%. This could support some localized fire-weather concerns. However, recent plentiful rainfall has tempered marginal fuels such that widespread fire-weather conditions appear unlikely. Additional precipitation and cooler temperatures north of the front should limit fire-weather potential over the central US. ...Mid Atlantic... As the upper trough over the central US consolidates, another day of gusty southerly winds is likely over parts of the Mid Atlantic. Warm daytime temperatures and minimal moisture ahead of a cold front could support localized fire-weather conditions over parts of the Carolinas and VA. However, fuels remain limited and any fire-weather conditions should be short lived, precluding highlights. ..Lyons.. 05/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... A cut off low over the Southwest is expected to move eastward as it merges with a strengthening subtropical jet stream south of a second upper trough over the northern US and southern Canada. Enhanced westerly flow aloft will move out of the southern Rockies and over the Plains deepening a lee cyclone. This will promote dry and breezy conditions over parts of the southern Plains with elevated fire-weather conditions likely. ...Southern Plains... Beneath the southern stream upper low, a lee cyclone will deepen over the southern High Plains this afternoon. Trailing the low, a developing dryline will serve as the eastern terminus of dry westerly flow across parts of eastern NM and the TX/OK Panhandles. Warm temperatures with westerly winds of 15-25 mph and 15-20 percent RH will overlap a confined region of dry fuels across TX/OK. This should support several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Some uncertainty remains on the exact dryline positioning later this afternoon. Isolated convection is also possible suggesting some precipitation may occur on the eastern edge of the Elevated probabilities. ...Northern Plains/Midwest... Gusty post-frontal winds are likely today across the northern Plains and upper Midwest. However, cooler surface temperatures and cloud cover will likely keep RH minimums above 35%. Still, some pockets of drier air could support brief localized fire-weather concerns in pockets of supportive fuels given stronger northwest wind gusts of 20-30 mph. ...Mid Atlantic... Gusty southerly winds and a drier than normal air mass are likely to develop this afternoon over parts of the Mid Atlantic and Piedmont. A strengthening pressure gradient ahead of the deepening upper low over southern Canada could support gusts of 10-15 mph. While RH will be below 40%, area fuels remains rather limited owing to recent precipitation. This should preclude broader fire-weather concerns, though some localized risk remains possible. ..Lyons.. 05/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0408 PM CDT Sun May 03 2026 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z An upper low will transition to an open wave as it traverses the Southwest on Day 3/Tuesday. Concurrently, an upper trough will sag into the Midwest and Great Lakes region before merging with southern stream troughing over the Mid-South on Day 4/Wednesday. However, guidance has started to differ on the evolution of the upper wave over the Southwest, one solution depicting an upper low to break off and reside over northern Mexico through Day 6/Friday. Despite these differences, the overall pattern should continue to provide chances for precipitation across the central Plains and portions of the Eastern U.S. through mid-week, dampening broader fire weather concerns. An upper ridge is expected to build across the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Wednesday, resulting in above normal temperatures and dry conditions to prevail for much of the western CONUS through the forecast period. A deep upper-level trough centered over the Great Lakes and an approaching shortwave across the Mid-South should enhance dry southwesterly flow on Day 3/Tuesday for portions of the Mid-Atlantic, promoting widespread breezy conditions. However, an ongoing transition to green up and recent appreciable rainfall hinders a broader fire concern. A cold front is expected to stall across the TX Panhandle Day 3/Tuesday, pushing dry and breezy conditions farther south into Central/West Texas as southwesterly flow aloft amplifies. On Day 4/Wednesday, the upper trough will migrate atop the southern Plains and West TX as an area of surface convergence develops east of the Front Range. This feature is expected to send a secondary cold front through the TX Panhandle on Day 4/Wednesday, while downslope westerly winds and a dry airmass persists over West TX. Recent plentiful rainfall and marginal fuels precludes the introduction of probabilities on both days. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/03/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z CORRECTED FOR MISSPELLED WORD ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will continue over the US Monday as the cut off low over the Southwest merges with a strengthening sub tropical jet stream. Enhanced westerly flow aloft will move out of the southern Rockies and over the Plains deepening a lee cyclone. This will promote dry and breezy conditions over parts of the southern Plains supporting elevated fire-weather potential. ...Southern Plains... Dry westerly flow is expected over parts of the southern Plains Monday as the southern stream upper trough begins to move into the Southwest. The deepening lee low will support strong west/southwest surface winds across parts of eastern NM and the TX/OK Panhandles. Warm temperatures and dry downslope westerly winds of 15-20 mph and 15-20 percent RH will overlap a confined region of dry fuels, exacerbated by drying from the previous day. This should support several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions west of a developing dryline. ...Northern Plains/Midwest... Gusty post-frontal winds are likely Monday across the northern Plains and upper Midwest. However, cooler surface temperatures and cloud cover suggest weaker mixing and higher RH. Still, some pockets of drier air could support brief localized fire-weather concerns in pockets of dry fuels given stronger northwest winds. ..Lyons.. 05/03/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will develop over the US Sunday as an upper trough exits the east coast and ridging remains in place across the Great Basin. The northern branch of the flow aloft will remain northwesterly over the Plains while a cutoff low is absorbed by the strengthening sub tropical jet. The result will be unseasonably dry conditions over much of the central CONUS where elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across the northern Plains. ...Northern Plains... An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to deepen as it moves out of southern Canada into the northern US Sunday. At the surface, an associated low will intensify as it traverses south-central Canada. A strengthening surface pressure gradient should tighten across much of the northern Plains, promoting dry and breezy conditions ahead of a southward progressing cold front tied to the low. Gusty winds of 20-30 mph are expected, along with RH below 30%. Widespread dry and breezy conditions over a dry fuelscape should promote elevated fire-weather potential. ...Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy southerly flow is expected over parts of western OK and the TX Panhandles Sunday beneath a northwesterly flow shortwave trough. South/southwest gusts of 20-25 mph are possible during the afternoon. With few clouds, afternoon RH values are expected to decrease to below 20% near the lee trough. This could support some localized fire-weather concerns. However, seasonably cooler temperatures and rainfall/green up have tempered fuels such that widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ..Lyons.. 05/02/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing is forecast to intensify over the eastern US Saturday as a weaker perturbation merges with it across the northern Gulf Coast. As the upper trough deepens, the associated southwesterly flow aloft will also strengthen. This will drive a cold front into the Gulf, though gusty winds and dry conditions are expected ahead of it over parts of FL. To the west, high pressure will remain over the Great Basin and northwesterly flow aloft persists over the central US. ...FL... Widespread dry and breezy conditions are expected again today ahead of the cold front moving across the FL Peninsula. Strong westerly flow at the base of the deepening eastern US trough will overspread the frontal zone this morning and afternoon, supporting gusty westerly winds across parts of southern and central FL. Mid and upper-level cloud cover are likely to accompany the front, though breaks (becoming more frequent with southward extent) should support some diurnal mixing. With westerly flow aloft increasing, surface gusts of 10-20 mph are possible. This should support gusty winds with RH below 40% for much of the region where rainfall has been limited. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. A couple hours of locally critical conditions are possible through the afternoon where occasional gusts of 15-20 mph could overlap with RH below 35%. This appears most likely farther south and east where humidity is expected to be lower and less likely to be impacted by clouds. However, less upper-level support for strong mixing and gusts is expected here. This suggests that while critical conditions are possible, they are unlikely to be widespread or of long duration. Fire-weather concerns should end this evening as the front continues to move southward. Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity should accompany the frontal passage, with cooler conditions developing behind the front. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... Behind the upper trough moving out of the Great lakes, continued northwesterly flow aloft is expected over the Plains. An embedded perturbation will deepen a weak surface low tracking from southern Canada into the eastern Dakotas. Trailing the low, a cold front will move southward, supporting gusty winds over parts of MT/WY and the western Dakotas. While RH will be variable and somewhat marginal given high cloud cover and the cooler air mass behind the front, most guidance shows diurnal minimums below 30%. The strong northerly winds of 15-25 mph (gusts up to 30 mph) are likely for several hours following the frontal passage, supportive of Elevated fire weather conditions given dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 05/02/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing is forecast to intensify over the eastern US Saturday as southwesterly flow aloft also strengthens. This will drive a cold front into the Gulf, though gusty winds and dry conditions are expected ahead of it over parts of FL. To the west of the upper trough, northwesterly flow will persist over the Plains ahead of a ridge over the Great Basin. A dry cold front will move southward across the northern Plains supporting dry and breezy conditions into parts of the Dakotas/MT. ...FL... Another day of dry and breezy conditions is expected for portions of central and southern FL. Surface winds should be somewhat stronger than Friday as the upper trough over the eastern US deepens and flow aloft increases. Surface gusts of 10-20 mph are possible amid RH below 35%. Area fuels remain quite dry with little recent rainfall and ERC values above the 95th percentile. Fire-weather concerns should end with the frontal passage and some light rainfall possible into the evening and overnight. ...Northern Plains... On the backside of the broader eastern US trough, a subtle shortwave will support a weak surface cyclone along a cold front moving out southern Canada. Gusty northwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected with the front. With little surface moisture in place, afternoon RH values below 20% are likely. Combined with dry fuels, the dry/breezy conditions will likely support a few hours of elevated fire weather concerns across southwestern ND, northwestern SD and southeastern MT, where recent rainfall has been minimal and fuels remain dry. ..Lyons.. 05/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing, with multiple embedded perturbations should gradually deepen over the eastern US today as ridging builds across the Great Basin. West of the ridge, a closed low will develop offshore and slowly move inland over the Pacific Northwest. Strong westerly flow is expected over much of the Gulf Coast and eastern US as a frontal boundary slowly sags southward. Widespread precipitation is forecast along and north of the front which should greatly limit fire-weather potential outside of FL. ...FL... South of the slow-moving front across the Gulf Coast and northern FL, enhanced westerly flow is expected over the central and eastern Peninsula this afternoon. While not overly strong (10-15 mph gusts), the breezy conditions should develop beneath clear skies, a relatively dry air mass with RH values of 30-35% and surface temperatures near 90F. Widespread receptive fuels (ERCs in the 90-97th percentiles) will support elevated fire weather conditions. ..Lyons.. 05/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0419 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... An amplifying upper trough across the eastern U.S. and deepening surface low near the Carolina Coast will lead to dry and breezy conditions south of a cold front, increasing the fire weather threat across FL on Day 3/Saturday. The cold front and associated rainfall will finally advance southeastward over the weekend, providing a temporary fire weather reprieve not only to Florida but to much of the Southeast and portions of the Mid Atlantic. A cold front sweeping southeastward under broader northeasterly flow should bring stronger west-northwest winds and low RH to portions of the northern Plains on Day 3/Saturday. Dry and breezy conditions return to the Southwest Day 4/Sunday and Southern High Plains Day 5-6/Monday-Tuesday as upper low gradually shifts into the region. ...Day 3/Saturday... ...Florida... Stronger west winds of 15 mph (locally 20 mph) ahead of a cold front advancing southeastward from the northern Gulf Coast will bring a fire weather threat to the FL Peninsula on Day 3/Saturday. RH reductions could be limited to 35% locally due to increasing cloud cover but fuels remain very receptive amid expanding drought where 40% critical probabilities remain. ...Northern Plains... A mid-level short wave will translate southeastward into the Northern Plains from the southern Canadian Prairies on Day 3/Saturday. At the surface, a cold front extending southwestward from a parent low across ND will sweep into the eastern MT and Dakotas. Dry and breezy conditions ahead of the cold front combined with dry fuels could allow for heightened fire weather concerns across southwestern ND, northwestern SD and southeastern MT, where recent rainfall has been minimal and fuels remain dry. 40% critical probabilities were introduced to account for this fire weather threat. ...Days 4-6/Sunday-Tuesday - Southwest and Southern Plains... Increasing southwesterly flow aloft should overspread the Southwest and Southern Plains as a lee surface trough develops across the southern Plains early next week. This will support dry and breezy conditions across the Southwest on Sunday, with downslope drying and enhanced winds evolving in the Southern High Plains Monday and Tuesday. However, preceding widespread rainfall in the tonight and Day 2/Friday time frame in addition to ongoing green up across the region should limit the impact of an otherwise enhanced fire weather concern. ..Williams.. 04/30/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A large scale upper trough will traverse the Great Basin on Day 3/Wednesday and persist over the northwest and central CONUS through the early weekend. Upper ridging will continue over the eastern U.S. through Day 4/Thursday before transitioning to fairly zonal flow over the Southeast through the weekend. Precipitation will be possible for parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Appalachians with an associated shortwave trough on Day 3/Wednesday. However, much of the Piedmont into the Southeast will remain fairly dry this week as surface high pressure builds across the region through Day 5/Friday. On Day 6/Saturday, a low-amplitude trough is forecast to enter the southwestern U.S and traverse the High Plains early next week. This pattern change could bring relief to portions of the central/southern Plains and broader southeast as precipitation chances increase. However, in areas that remain dry, fire weather concerns are likely to linger given the overall pattern. ...Day 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday... On Day 3/Wednesday, a shortwave impulse will bring precipitation chances across portions of the Mid-Atlantic along a weak cold front. Ahead of the front, strong mid-level flow aloft will support dry and breezy downslope conditions where 97th-99th percentile ERCs have been observed across the Carolinas. 40% Critical probabilities were maintained where westerly winds of up to 15 mph and 20-30 percent RH are forecast to overlap dry fuels. A deepening surface low across the northern High Plains ahead of the approaching upper-level trough and associated southwest flow aloft will bring an expansive fire weather threat to much of the High Plains and portions of the Southwest on Day 3/Wednesday. 70% critical probabilities have been expanded where a mid-level jet should align with tightening surface pressure gradients, promoting strong southwesterly winds of up to 30 mph and RH of 10 percent or less. Downslope enhanced drying and strong westerly winds will continue across much of the Southwest and Southern Plains on Day 4/Thursday as the mid-level trough ejects into the Plains. Broad 40% Critical probabilities were maintained for the Southwest and Southern Plains, and 70% Critical probabilities were introduced on Day 4/Thursday for eastern NM into the TX Panhandle where a corridor of strong downslope winds and critically low RH will overlap dry fuels. ...Day 5-7/Friday-Sunday... As upper troughing persists across the northern U.S., strong zonal flow over the Southwest should promote very breezy and continued dry conditions on Day 5/Friday. 40% Critical probabilities were introduced where ensemble guidance portrays an overlap of low RH and strong winds. An incoming secondary trough may continue fire weather concerns across the Southwest and south/central Plains this weekend where fuels remain dry. However, model ambiguity in timing and location of the trough precludes the introduction of probabilities at this time. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough approaches the California coast on Day 3/Friday while another upper trough traverses the Great Lakes into the Northeast and temporary zonal flow continues over the Great Plains. On Day 4/Saturday, an upper-level shortwave will move across the central U.S., sending the first lee-surface low northeastward over the Great Plains and Midwest through Day 6/Monday. A secondary lee-surface low ejects off the Rockies on Day 6/Monday, traversing the Midwest and Great Lakes region by Day 7/Tuesday. This scenario is likely to result in multiple days of precipitation across much of the western and central US, which would temporarily dampen fire weather threats. Sporadic areas of little to no precipitation will be possible, but are difficult to pin point due to the highly dynamic pattern. ...Great Basin - Day 3/Friday... The best chances for fire weather conditions under southerly flow will occur on Day 3/Friday across portions of eastern UT into western CO. Southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph (gusts up to 30 mph) combined with 15-20% RH atop preconditioned, drying fuels from Day 2/Thursday is expected to generate Elevated fire weather conditions. Precipitation arrival on Day 4/Saturday afternoon may provide relief to any ongoing or new fire starts. ...Middle Mississippi Valley - Day 5/Sunday... Ongoing drying conditions through the rest of this week and increasing potential for 10+ mph southerly winds on Day 5/Sunday may promote locally elevated fire weather concerns across northeastern AR, southeastern MO, and western TN. Portions of this region range from D2-D4 drought, though higher chances for wetting rainfall does arrive middle of next week. Given model uncertainty in how far northeast the gulf moisture may advect combined with questionable fuels, critical probabilities have been withheld for now. ...Southern/Central Plains - Day 5/Sunday through Day 6/Monday... Possible fire weather conditions return on Day 5/Sunday as a more potent shortwave moves across the High Plains. On Day 6/Monday, a secondary upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Southwest. Considering the overall pattern, areas behind an emerging dryline and along a downslope regime will need to be watched closely for fire weather concerns. However, given model uncertainty in the timing of the shortwave and coincident surface low development, and the potential for widespread appreciable rainfall on Day 3/Friday - Day 4/Saturday, critical probabilities have been withheld for now. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Stearns.. 04/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Largely zonal flow will be in place across much of the Rockies on D2/Thursday as a closed upper-level trough approaches the California coastline and a series of shortwave troughs rotates through the northern Great Lakes region. At the surface, weak low pressure center is forecast to develop across southeastern Colorado, with a trailing dryline extending southward across the central High Plains and a cold front extending northeastward across the central Great Plains. ...Portions of the southern High Plains... Relative humidity values are forecast to fall to 10-20% across portions of the southern High Plains Thursday afternoon amid peak mixing. Latest high-res guidance also suggests that a tightened surface pressure gradient will favor sustained south-southwesterly winds around 15 mph across this region. With dry, receptive fuels in place across the region, this combination of winds/RH is expected to promote a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of northeastern New Mexico, extreme southeastern Colorado, the western Oklahoma Panhandle, and the northwestern Texas Panhandle. Increased mid-level moisture atop deep, dry boundary layers (forecast soundings suggest boundary layers may extend up to ~500 mb or 3-4 km AGL), may also support the development of isolated, high-based convection across the region. With PWATs on the order of half an inch or less, little precipitation is expected, but outflow/wind gusts from this convection may locally augment surface winds speeds. With forecast soundings indicating the presence of 50-100 J/kg MUCAPE atop the boundary layer, an occasional dry lightning strike may also be possible across this area. Confidence in the coverage of potential dry thunderstorms remains low at this time, but trends will be monitored for future outlook issuances. ...Portions of the Great Basin/Southwest... Southwesterly winds of 10-20 mph are expected to overlap low RH of 15-20% across portions of the southern Great Basin and Southwest. These factors may generate locally elevated fire weather concerns Thursday afternoon; however, recent cooler weather, precipitation, and resultant marginal fuels are expected to temper widespread fire weather concerns at this time. ..Chalmers.. 04/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Fairly zonal flow dominates much of central CONUS on Day 3/Thursday as upper-level troughing traverses the Northeast and a cutoff low approaches the California coast. However, it's not until Day 4/Friday into Day 5/Saturday that the center of the low finally moves onshore as a result of another trough moving across the northern Pacific. By Day 6/Sunday, this upper-level low also cuts off, sending the first cutoff low northeastward across the Great Plains and Midwest by Day 8/Monday. This scenario is likely to result in multiple days of precipitation across much of the western and central US, which would temporarily dampen fire weather threats. Sporadic areas of little to no precipitation will be possible, but are difficult to pin point due to the highly dynamic pattern. ...Great Basin/Southwest - Day 3/Thursday through Day 4/Friday... The best chances for sporadic fire weather conditions under southerly flow will occur on Day 3/Thursday through Day 4/Friday across portions of the eastern Great Basin and Southwest. Southwesterly winds of 10-20 mph combined with 15-20% RH in northwest AZ and southern NV may generate locally elevated fire weather concerns on Day 3/Thursday. Similar conditions also appear likely across eastern UT on Day 4/Friday. However, recent cooler weather, precipitation, and resultant questionably receptive fuels will preclude any probabilities at this time. While this event could promote a brief period of drier fuel conditions across this region, precipitation appears likely with the aforementioned low pressure system later in the week. ...Southern Plains - Day 6/Sunday through Day 7/Monday... Possible fire weather conditions return on Day 6/Sunday as a more potent shortwave moves across the High Plains. On Day 7/Monday, a secondary upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Southwest. Considering the overall pattern, areas behind an emerging dryline will need to be watched closely for fire weather concerns. However, given model uncertainty in the timing of the shortwave and coincident surface low development, and the potential for widespread appreciable rainfall on Day 4/Friday - Day 5/Saturday, critical probabilities have been withheld for now. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Stearns.. 04/07/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z An upper-level trough will be progressing eastward along the Canadian border with the base of the jet over the northern Plains on Day 3/Wednesday. A cutoff upper-level low approaches the California coast simultaneously on Day 3/Wednesday. However, it's not until Day 5/Friday into Day 6/Saturday that the center of the low finally moves onshore as a result of another trough moving across the northern Pacific. By Day 7/Sunday, this upper-level low also cuts off, sending the first cutoff low northeastward across the Great Plains and Midwest by Day 8/Monday. This scenario is likely to result in multiple days of precipitation across much of the western and central US, which would temporarily dampen fire weather threats. Sporadic areas of little to no precipitation will be possible, but difficult to pin point due to the highly dynamic pattern. ...Southeast (Day 3/Wednesday)... With surface high pressure still to the north over the eastern Great Lakes, continued offshore flow will likely contribute to at least elevated fire weather conditions across eastern Georgia and southern South Carolina. This regime will result in northeast 10-15 mph winds combined with RHs down to 25-35% during the peak heating period. ...Southern Plains (Day 3/Wednesday and Day 7/Sunday)... Another day of tightened surface pressure gradient supports south-southwest winds up to 15 mph and RHs down to 10-15% over portions of the southern High Plains on Day 3/Wednesday. Much of this region is favored for accumulating precipitation as the aforementioned low pressure system ejects eastward across the central portions of the CONUS next weekend. However, the latest forecast guidance indicates that some locations may struggle to accumulate much rainfall. If this trend holds true, future areas of critical probabilities may be needed as the forecast becomes more clear. ...Great Basin/Southwest (Day 3/Wednesday through Day 5/Friday)... The best chances for sporadic fire weather conditions under the southerly flow will occur on Day 3/Wednesday through Day 5/Friday across areas of the eastern Great Basin and Southwest. However, recent cooler weather, precipitation, and resultant questionably receptive fuels will preclude any probabilities at this time. While this event could promote a brief period of drier fuel conditions across this region, additional precipitation also appears likely with the aforementioned low pressure system later in the week. ..Stearns.. 04/06/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0312 PM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Upper-level ridging over the western US will continue to dampen on Day 3/Tuesday due to an incoming trough over the Pacific Northwest. This trough will contribute to near-zonal flow across the southern half of the CONUS on Day 4/Wednesday as it moves along the Canadian border. On Day 5/Thursday, a cutoff upper-level low approaches the central California coast. Recent forecast guidance suggests that it will remain over California through Day 7/Saturday before moving inland and contributing to potentially multiple days of precipitation, particularly over California and the Great Basin. ...Southeast (Day 3/Tuesday and Day 4/Wednesday)... One area that the latest forecast guidance leaves out of much of the accumulating precipitation is just south/east of the southern Appalachian Mountains (especially over southern Georgia and South Carolina). Offshore flow will likely contribute to elevated fire weather conditions on Day 3/Tuesday across southern Georgia and Day 4/Wednesday over eastern Georgia and southern South Carolina. This regime will contribute to northeast 10-15 mph winds combined with RHs down to 25-35% during the peak heating periods over the aforementioned areas on the respective days. As such, 40% probabilities were included over these areas. ...Southern Plains (Day 4/Wednesday)... Another day of tightened surface pressure gradient supports south-southwest winds of up to 20 mph and RHs down to 10-15% over portions of the southern High Plains again on Day 4/Wednesday. Much of this region is favored for accumulating precipitation as the aforementioned low pressure system moves inland late in the week. ...Great Basin/Southwest (Day 4/Wednesday through Day 6/Friday)... Some potential for critical conditions will exist across portions of the Great Basin and Southwest as the upper-level ridge continues to erode on starting on Day 3/Tuesday. The best chances for sporadic fire weather conditions under the southerly flow will occur on Day 4/Wednesday through Day 6/Friday. However, recent cooler weather, precipitation, and resultant questionably receptive fuels will preclude any probabilities at this time. While this event could promote a brief period of drier fuel conditions across this region, additional precipitation also appears likely with the aforementioned low pressure system later in the week. ..Stearns.. 04/05/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... Model guidance continues to suggest a more active upper-level wave pattern emerging next week across the CONUS, ushering in opportunities for much needed precipitation across the western U.S. and portions of the Plains where fuels remain very dry. An embedded mid-level trough moving through the Northern Rockies and surface lee troughing across the Plains will present a broad fire weather concern for D3/Monday across portions of the eastern UT into WY and along the central and southern High Plains. The overall fire weather threat becomes more confined to portions of the Southwest as cooler temperatures and precipitation gradually reduce fire weather concerns across much of the contiguous U.S., as a deeper upper-level trough moves into the Northwest mid to late next week. ...Day 3/Monday... ...Eastern UT/Western CO, WY and Central/Southern High Plains... An embedded mid-level short wave trough moving through the Northern Rockies along with deepening surface lee troughing across the central/northern Plains will support a dry, downslope enhanced regime across much of the central and southern High Plains on D3/Monday. 70% critical probabilities were added across portions of central and eastern WY with strong west winds of at least 20-30 mph and low relative humidity align with dry fuels. Dry downslope westerly flow should encompass much of the central and southern High Plains Monday as a dry, well-mixed boundary layer evolves while increasing Gulf moisture makes a return across much of the eastern U.S. 40% critical probabilities were added to much of the central and southern High Plains with very dry fuels in place and above normal temperatures persisting through early next week. ...Eastern Arizona and Western NM... Influx of mid and upper-level moisture from Baja California along with daytime instability should lead to a few thunderstorms mainly over higher terrain within a relatively weak shear environment. A dry, sub-cloud layer will inhibit significant rainfall across the region with some ignition potential in dry fuels. ...Day 4-5/Tuesday-Wednesday - Southern High Plains... Increasing westerly flow aloft and lee surface troughing across the Southern High Plains should support dry and breezy conditions across portions of eastern NM and the TX Panhandle on D4/Tuesday. A 40% critical area was introduced given receptive fuels remain in place. A more pronounced mid-level short wave trough and associated jet could bring additional fire weather impacts to the Southern High Plains D5/Wednesday. Some uncertainty exists particularly across northeastern NM and the TX Panhandle in timing of short wave and related surface cold front passage. Introduced 40% critical probabilities for southeastern NM and far west TX, but could be expanded northward in subsequent outlooks as new model guidance becomes available. ..Williams.. 03/28/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING... ...Southeastern Wyoming... Critical Highlights were added to portions of southeastern WY. Deep layer westerly flow at the apex of an upper-level ridge will persist over the Northern Rockies through D2/Sunday. Despite some high cloud cover moving into the Intermountain West, a dry, well mixed-boundary layer should promote stronger surface winds, particularly across southeastern WY, where near record high temperatures and relative humidity of around 15% will align to promote critical fire weather conditions for Sunday. ...Eastern Great Basin...Northwestern Arizona into western WY and CO Western Slope... Existing elevated fire weather highlights were expanded to include eastern UT and western CO. A very dry and warm air mass under the ridge across the Intermountain West will persist into Sunday. A weak, mid-level wave will bolster southwest winds across the region as relative humidity falls into the 15-20% range by afternoon, possibly as low as 10% in some lower elevation areas. West-southwest winds of 15-20 mph will combine with low RH, near record high temperatures and drying fuels to bring an elevated fire weather threat to portions of southeastern NV and northwestern AZ into southern UT, western CO and western WY. ...Blue Ridge Mountains and Eastern Tennessee Valley... Dry return flow commences Sunday across the Southeast as surface high pressure slides east of the Mid Atlantic. Southerly winds up to 15 mph coupled with relative humidity as low as 15% will support an elevated fire weather threat across the eastern TN Valley and adjacent Cumberland Plateau areas amid an increasingly dry fuelscape. ...Southern Plains... Surface lee troughing across the Southern Plains and persistently westerly flow aloft should bring dry downslope flow into eastern NM northward into south-central CO along and east of the leeward slopes of the Sangre De Cristo Mountains. West winds of around 15 mph and relative humidity as low as 10% will pose an elevated fire weather threat for Sunday. Extended Elevated Highlights into the TX Panhandle and western OK as southwest winds of 10-20 mph amid RH between 15-25% develops in response to lee troughing across the Central Plains. A return of deeper Gulf moisture across eastern TX/OK should limit RH reductions, mitigating the overall fire weather threat. ...Southern Arizona... Increasing mid and upper-level moisture across the Desert Southwest along with afternoon heating and resultant instability should support isolated showers and thunderstorms across southern AZ Sunday afternoon. PWATs of 0.5-0.8" with a prominent dry sub-cloud layer should limit precipitation, allowing some threat of dry thunderstorms to evolve. Fuels remain receptive with isolated dry thunderstorm threat now primarily within southern AZ based on latest model guidance. ..Williams.. 03/28/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0235 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026/ ...Synopsis... A persistent upper-level ridge will begin to slide southeastward to the far southern Great Plains on D2/Sunday, while enhanced, zonal flow persists across the northern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure will move offshore of the Mid-Atlantic Coast, bringing return flow to much of the southern Plains and Southeast. A cold front will begin to push southward across the northern Great Plains and Northwest. ...Portions of the central/northern High Plains... Modest westerly, mid-level flow will persist across portions of the central/northern Rockies on D2/Sunday, favoring a dry, downslope regime across much of Wyoming. Westerly winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap low RH values of 10-20%. With receptive fuels in place across the region, this will bring elevated fire weather concerns to much of southern and central Wyoming into extreme northern Colorado and the extreme western Nebraska Panhandle. Consideration was given to a localized area of Critical highlights across portions of central/southeast Wyoming, but uncertainty remains regarding a more widespread overlap of RH less than 15% and 20+ mph winds at this time. Regardless, localized critical conditions appears possible, and trends will be monitored for the possibility of a future upgrade. Some high-res guidance suggests that locally elevated conditions may occur in association with a brief period of stronger surface winds (15-20 mph) funneling down the North Platte River Valley farther east across western Nebraska. However, most current guidance suggests that winds will largely remain less than 15 mph across this region. Thus, elevated highlights were withheld at this time despite minimum RH values forecast around 10-20%. ...Southern Great Basin... Dry and breezy flow is forecast across portions of the southern Great Basin Sunday afternoon ahead of a weak, mid-level shortwave trough. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected where southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph, very low RH of 15-20%, and abnormally dry fuels align. ...Northeastern New Mexico... While mid-level flow is forecast to remain rather weak across much of the southern Rockies, a corridor of marginally enhanced westerly flow aloft is forecast to support dry, downslope winds across portions of northeastern New Mexico. Sustained westerly winds of 15-20 mph are forecast to overlap very low RH of 10-15% for at least a few hours Sunday afternoon. With receptive fuels in place across the region, this will bring elevated fire weather concerns to portions of northeastern New Mexico. ...Southern Arizona into southwestern New Mexico... Weak southwesterly flow aloft along the northwestern periphery of an upper-level ridge is forecast to yield increasing mid/upper level Pacific moisture, with PWATs forecast to range from 0.5-0.8" by Sunday afternoon. While better moisture appears to be delayed until later Sunday night and into Monday, latest guidance depicts the development of weak instability (~50-150 J/kg MUCAPE) across portions of southern Arizona/southwestern New Mexico late Sunday afternoon. Precipitation totals are forecast to be light, with deep, dry boundary layers and LCLs around 3 km AGL. This should support at least some potential for isolated dry thunder atop dry, receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge begins to slide eastward into the central U.S. early next week while a mid-level trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. A split jet flow emerges across the western U.S. by Day 5/Tuesday with more a more pronounced and progressive wave pattern persisting across the northern CONUS through late next week. The modest westerly flow aloft under the ridge and lee surface troughing across the northern High Plains will support a fire weather threat across WY into the NE Panhandle on Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday as strong west winds align with dry fuels, above normal temperatures and low relative humidity. Farther south, mid to upper-level Pacific moisture ahead of an approaching upper trough and daytime instability over higher terrain may support some thunderstorm development and ignition potential across portions of AZ and NM on Day 3-4/Sunday-Monday. Fire weather concerns shift eastward into the Southern Plains on Day 5/Monday with the arrival of a more pronounced short wave embedded within the weaker, southern jet stream. Fire weather concerns should wane for the latter part of next week across the West as another trough enters the Northwest bringing cooler temperatures and precipitation to portions of Intermountain West. ...Day 3-4/Sunday-Monday... ...Wyoming/Central High Plains and Southern Great Basin... Dry and breezy conditions under deep layer westerly flow amid abnormally warm temperatures, low RH and dry fuels should support a fire weather threat across southern WY into the central High Plains on Day 3/Sunday, where a 40% critical probability area remains. 40% probabilities were also added to portions of the southern Great Basin across far southeastern NV, southwestern UT and northwestern AZ ahead of an embedded weak mid-level short wave where stronger southwest winds, low RH and abnormally dry fuels align. ...Arizona and New Mexico... The threat of dry thunderstorms has diminished particularly on Sunday across southwestern NM and southeastern AZ based on latest model guidance consensus, with injection of mid/upper Pacific moisture within broader southwest flow delayed until Sunday night into Monday. A more favorable thunderstorm environment evolves for Monday across the Southwest, with a few lightning ignitions possible, mainly across the higher terrain and higher fuel landscapes of eastern AZ and western NM. Fuels are unusually dry within a virtually snow free landscape that could be receptive to ignitions. ...Day 5/Tuesday - Southern Plains... Increasing west-southwesterly flow within the southern, subtropical jet arrives into the Southwest and Southern Plains by Day 5/Tuesday as a cold front trails southwestward into the region from a strong surface across the Great Lakes. This will support a dry downslope regime behind a dry line across portions of eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. Breezy west winds, low RH and dry fuels supports at least an elevated fire weather threat to the area, with an eventual wind shift from a southward advancing cold front that could have further impacts on existing or new wildfires. Thus 40% critical probabilities remain for portions of the Southern Plains. ..Williams.. 03/27/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA...SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND FL PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...Southeastern Wyoming... A more favorable downslope regime will emerge across portions of WY as dry and breezy conditions as an upper-level ridge builds over the Intermountain West and lee troughing develops across the northern High Plains under modest westerly flow aloft. A corridor of 15-25 mph sustained winds with higher gusts, relative humidity in falling into the 10-15% range by mid-afternoon and return of above normal temperatures will support critical fire weather conditions, with introduction of Critical Highlights across southeastern WY warranted. ...Southeast... An expansive fire weather threat is still anticipated across much of the Southeast under a dry, post frontal regime. A swath of enhanced northeast winds of 15-20 mph and relative humidity as low as 20% will be most likely across portions of SC into southern GA. Extended Critical Highlights southwestward into northern FL and adjacent Elevated Highlights southward into the Gulf Coast based on latest model guidance. ...Southern Great Basin and Arizona Strip... A mid-level short wave within a building ridge will support dry and breezy southwest flow across portions of the southern Great Basin and northwestern AZ. Southwest winds of 15-25 mph along with relative humidity below 10% in lower elevations will bring elevated fire weather conditions to this region amid an increasingly dry fuelscape. Thus, Elevated Highlights have been added to portions of far southeastern NV, southwestern UT and northwestern AZ. ..Williams.. 03/27/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0250 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will shift eastward from the Midwest to the East Coast in the wake of a robust mid-level trough moving across the Northeast on D2/Saturday. Simultaneously, enhanced zonal, mid-level flow across the northern/central Rockies will promote lee troughing over the High Plains, with a tightened pressure gradient and strong low-level jet developing between the surface high and lee troughing. ...Central Great Plains... The aforementioned surface pressure gradient and low-level jet will yield strong, sustained southerly flow of 20-30 mph across much of the central Great Plains. With receptive fuels in place and RH values forecast to fall to 15-20%, critical fire weather conditions are forecast Saturday afternoon from portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle northeastward to southwestern Minnesota, western Iowa, and southeastern South Dakota. Boundary layer mixing and strong 850 mb flow of 30-40+ kts will also support the potential for periodic wind gusts of 35-45 mph. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across adjacent areas of the central Great Plains where sustained southerly surface winds of 15-25 mph are forecast to overlap reduced RH values of 20-25%, except for portions of central/eastern Kansas that saw more appreciable rainfall Thursday evening. ...Portions of the central High Plains... Modest zonal, mid-level flow across the central/northern Rockies will favor dry, downslope winds in the lee of the southern and central Rockies during the afternoon on Saturday. Sustained westerly surface winds of 15-20 mph are forecast to overlap very low RH of 10-15% across portions of southern Wyoming and southeastern Colorado. With receptive fuels in place across these regions, a period of elevated fire weather conditions is expected Saturday afternoon. Localized critical conditions will also be possible across portions of southeastern Wyoming, particularly in the lee of the Laramie Range, where modest mid-level flow (30-40 kts around 600-700 mb) may support occasional gusts of 35-45 mph. ...Portions of the Southeast... Dry and breezy conditions are forecast across much of the southeastern US along the southern periphery of the surface high. Sustained northeasterly surface winds of 10-15 mph overlapping reduced RH of 25-35% amid dry, antecedent conditions will support a widespread area of elevated fire weather concerns. Some guidance indicates RH values may fall to as low as ~20% across portions of this region. Critical highlights have been added to portions of southeastern Georgia and southern South Carolina where confidence is highest in a period of overlap between sustained winds of 15-20 mph and minimum RH values of 20-25% (locally lower). The potential for expansion of this critical area will be monitored in future outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will shift eastward from the Midwest to the East Coast in the wake of a robust mid-level trough moving across the Northeast on D2/Saturday. Simultaneously, enhanced zonal, mid-level flow across the northern/central Rockies will promote lee troughing over the High Plains, with a tightened pressure gradient and strong low-level jet developing between the surface high and lee troughing. ...Central Great Plains... The aforementioned surface pressure gradient and low-level jet will yield strong, sustained southerly flow of 20-30 mph across much of the central Great Plains. With receptive fuels in place and RH values forecast to fall to 15-20%, critical fire weather conditions are forecast Saturday afternoon from portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle northeastward to southwestern Minnesota, western Iowa, and southeastern South Dakota. Boundary layer mixing and strong 850 mb flow of 30-40+ kts will also support the potential for periodic wind gusts of 35-45 mph. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across adjacent areas of the central Great Plains where sustained southerly surface winds of 15-25 mph are forecast to overlap reduced RH values of 20-25%, except for portions of central/eastern Kansas that saw more appreciable rainfall Thursday evening. ...Portions of the central High Plains... Modest zonal, mid-level flow across the central/northern Rockies will favor dry, downslope winds in the lee of the southern and central Rockies during the afternoon on Saturday. Sustained westerly surface winds of 15-20 mph are forecast to overlap very low RH of 10-15% across portions of southern Wyoming and southeastern Colorado. With receptive fuels in place across these regions, a period of elevated fire weather conditions is expected Saturday afternoon. Localized critical conditions will also be possible across portions of southeastern Wyoming, particularly in the lee of the Laramie Range, where modest mid-level flow (30-40 kts around 600-700 mb) may support occasional gusts of 35-45 mph. ...Portions of the Southeast... Dry and breezy conditions are forecast across much of the southeastern US along the southern periphery of the surface high. Sustained northeasterly surface winds of 10-15 mph overlapping reduced RH of 25-35% amid dry, antecedent conditions will support a widespread area of elevated fire weather concerns. Some guidance indicates RH values may fall to as low as ~20% across portions of this region. Critical highlights have been added to portions of southeastern Georgia and southern South Carolina where confidence is highest in a period of overlap between sustained winds of 15-20 mph and minimum RH values of 20-25% (locally lower). The potential for expansion of this critical area will be monitored in future outlooks. ..Chalmers.. 03/27/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... An eastward translating upper-level trough will exit the eastern U.S. by the weekend, with a broad surface high pressure settling into the OH River Valley by Day 5 Sunday. A building ridge across the West will continue to support near record heat across much of the Southwestern U.S. through the end of the week as a trough impinges upon the West Coast by early next week. At the surface, a strong cold front should elevated fire weather concerns across portions of the central and southern Plains on Day 3/Friday as dry, post-frontal flow impacts this region. Dry southerly flow returns on Day 4/Saturday across much of the southern and central Plains as surface high pressure pushes into the eastern U.S. and lee troughing evolves in the northern High Plains. Mid and upper-level moisture entering the Southwest ahead of the next trough could bring high-based showers and thunderstorms to portions of NM and AZ over the weekend, increasing opportunities for ignitions over unseasonably dry fuels. ...Day 3/Friday - Central and Southern Plains... Broad post-frontal flow from the north-northeast will encompass portions of the central and southern Plains on Day 3/Friday. The gusty north-northeast winds accompanying a very dry air mass centered across portions of eastern KS, southwestward into OK and the TX Panhandle should support a fire weather threat across this region. A northeastward expansion of the existing 40% probabilities was warranted based on latest model guidance and receptive fuels in place. ...Day 4/Saturday - Southern/Central Plains and Southeast... Fire weather impacts from the dry post-frontal environment will extend into portions of the Southeast by Day 4/Saturday. Appreciable northeast winds amid low daytime relative humidity and dry fuels supports continuation of the 40% critical probabilities for portions of the Carolinas, GA, southern TN and northwestern AL. ...Day 5/Sunday - Arizona and New Mexico... Increasing mid and upper-level moisture from the Pacific and emerging daytime instability should support high-based convection across portions of the Southwest. Exceptionally warm and dry conditions preceding and leading up to this event has aided in fuel receptivity to spread. As such, introduced a 10% probability for isolated dry thunderstorms for portions of eastern AZ and western NM, where drier fuels exist. Farther north, warming temperatures and an increasingly dry boundary layer should align with breezy west winds across portions of southeastern WY into western NE and far northeastern CO where minimal precipitation is expected to fall over the next few days. Dry fuels should largely still be in place by Day 5/Sunday across much of the High Plains so introduced 40% critical probabilities where the dry fuels coexist with breezy west winds and dry conditions. The high-based convection and dry thunderstorm threat could linger into early next week as the trough enters the western U.S. but generally cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity could reduce overall fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 03/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...Central and Southeastern New Mexico...Texas Panhandle...northwest Oklahoma... A pronounced surface low south of a strong cold front will develop across the Southern High Plains Thursday while a subtle mid-level short wave ejects into the southern High Plains by Thursday afternoon. Dry, downslope favored flow with west to southwest winds of 15-25 mph ahead of the advancing cold front will overlap with very low relative humidity of around 10% across much of eastern NM, the TX Panhandle into northwestern OK. In addition, record breaking temperatures in the middle to upper 90s F will aid in rapid drying of finer fuels through the afternoon. Farther south, single digit relative humidity and downslope enhanced, albeit more localized, winds of 15-20 mph along and east of the Sacramento Mountains warranted a southward expansion of critical fire weather highlights into southeastern NM. The cold front pushing south across the southern Plains will bring an abrupt northerly wind shift to the region through early Friday, with potential impacts to existing wildfires or potential new ignitions. ...South-central Kansas... A very dry boundary layer will be in place across southern KS before the cold front arrives by late Thursday afternoon. The cold front and impinging mid-level short wave, along with some mid-level moisture should support development of high-based showers and thunderstorms across southern KS by late Thursday afternoon and evening. Minimal precipitation over a very receptive fuelscape preceded by likely record high temperatures near 100 F should support a higher ignition efficiency across the area. Therefore, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were introduced, with westward expansion into southwestern KS and even extreme northern OK potential needed in subsequent outlooks. ..Williams.. 03/25/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026/ ...Synopsis... The strongest upper-level winds will persist within the northern tier states on Thursday. Some amplification of the upper ridge is expected in the West. Modest amplification of the upper trough over southeaster Canada is also expected. Cooler air will move into much of the CONUS by Friday morning. ...Central New Mexico...Texas Panhandle...northwest Oklahoma... A cutoff low currently off the southern California coast will move through the Southwest Wednesday and reach the southern Rockies/High Plains Thursday afternoon. This feature will not be overly strong, but will provide enhancement to the mid-level winds and help deepen a surface low in the High Plains. This will promote 20-25 mph surface winds. With very dry air remaining in the Southwest and moving eastward, localized single digit RH is possible. More broadly, 10-15% RH can be expected during the afternoon. Sustained critical fire weather is most likely in these areas. ...Central Oklahoma into Flint Hills... The exact degree of RH reductions within these areas remains uncertain due to some moisture returning northward. However, mostly clear skies are expected and warming temperatures (likely in the 90s F given the current frontal progression forecast) will support RH values of 20-30%. With the low-level jet centered over these regions, winds of 15-25 mph (and stronger gusts) will promote elevated to near critical fire weather conditions even with what could be marginal RH reductions. The cold front will eventually move southward and strong, gusty north winds will arrive in its wake. Timing of the front will be mid/late afternoon for Kansas with overnight into Friday morning for Oklahoma. ...Western Kansas... Uncertainty in terms of the duration of fire weather concerns is largest in this area. With the surface trough remaining here the longest, weaker winds are expected for at least part of the day. Ahead of the front, 15-20 mph may occur. Stronger northerly winds are expected behind the front. As the front moves southward through Wednesday into Thursday, some airmass modification appears probable and the temperature drop behind the front will be more gradual. This should allow for a secondary period of elevated to near critical fire weather during late afternoon/early evening. ...Eastern Great Basin into the Southwest... Ahead of a cold front, surface winds will increase across the eastern Great Basin to 15-25 mph (locally higher). Across the Southwest, weaker winds are expected due to the stronger mid-level winds displaced farther north. There, only 15 mph is anticipated. Elevated fire weather is forecast as fuels continue to dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN WYOMING... ...Synopsis... A persistent upper-level ridge will remain centered over the Southwest on D2/Friday, with modest northwest flow aloft persisting across the central/northern High Plains. Surface high pressure over the Intermountain West coupled with lee troughing across the northern Plains will support a continued downslope wind regime, with dry/windy conditions forecast to yield elevated to critical fire weather concerns across portions of the central and northern High Plains. ...Central/Northern High Plains... Anomalously strong upper-level ridging across the Southwest will continue to support the potential for record warm temperatures across much of the West. With high pressure remaining positioned across the Intermountain West and lee troughing in place across the northern Great Plains, a persistent downslope wind regime is forecast to yield sustained west-northwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph across much of the central/northern High Plains. Coupled with reduced RH values of 10-15% and receptive fuels, this will support critical fire weather conditions across portions of central/eastern Wyoming. Elevated fire weather concerns are forecast across adjacent areas of the western Wyoming Basin and portions of southwestern South Dakota and western Nebraska where lighter surface winds of 15-20 mph are forecast to overlap reduced minimum RH values of 10-15%. Farther north across much of southern Montana, RH values are expected to remain more marginal (15-25%); however, ongoing fire activity and sustained westerly surface winds of 15-25 mph warrant the addition of Elevated fire weather highlights. ...Oregon... Some guidance indicates westerly surface winds will strengthen amid a tightening surface pressure gradient ahead of an approaching cold front through D2/Friday. Continued dry/windy conditions may support localized elevated fire weather concerns, but remaining uncertainty regarding the strength and duration of stronger winds as well as how low RH will fall in the afternoon precludes the inclusion of Elevated fire weather highlights at this time. Conditions will continue to be monitored for future updates. ..Chalmers.. 03/19/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN WYOMING... ...Synopsis... Upper-level riding will persist across the Southwest with strong northwesterly upper-level flow remaining in place across the northern Rockies and central CONUS. This will support a continued downslope regime across the central/northern High Plains and western Wyoming Basin, with elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected amid strong west-northwest surface winds and very low RH values. Elsewhere, strong surface winds and reduced RH are expected to yield elevated fire weather conditions across portions of central/southern Oregon. ...Central/Northern High Plains... Anomalously strong upper-level ridging will persist across the Southwest today with strong upper-level northwesterly flow in place across the central/northern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure across the Intermountain West will combine with a low pressure system shifting southeastward across the Canadian Prairies to support west-northwesterly downslope winds of 20-25 mph and reduced RH values of 10-15% across portions of central and eastern Wyoming. With persistent dry/windy conditions continuing to aid in the maintenance of receptive fuels, these conditions are expected to support critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. While the strongest low-to-mid level flow is forecast to be displaced farther north, deep boundary layer mixing may still support occasional wind gusts to 30-35 mph across this area. Elevated fire weather concerns are also expected across adjacent regions, including much of the Wyoming Basin eastward into portions of northern Colorado, southwestern South Dakota, and northeastern Nebraska where sustained westerly surface winds of 15-20 mph and reduced RH of 10-15% are forecast amid the downslope wind regime. Elevated highlights have also been expanded farther north and east into much of southern Montana given similar forecast meteorological conditions and recent wildfire activity noted in the region. ...Oregon... Just west of the upper-level ridge axis, a strengthening surface pressure gradient is forecast to yield west-southwesterly sustained surface winds of 10-20 mph with RH values falling to 10-20% this afternoon across portions of central and southeastern Oregon with temperatures forecast well above normal. This combination of hot, dry, and windy conditions is expected to support elevated fire weather concerns prior to green up. ...Eastern Idaho... Latest high-res guidance depicts sustained westerly to southwesterly surface winds of 10-20 mph developing within the Snake River Valley through today amid a tightening surface pressure gradient. While RH values are forecast to drop to 15-25%, marginal fuel receptiveness is expected to preclude widespread fire weather concerns. ..Chalmers.. 03/19/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN WYOMING... ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will remain in place across the Southwest for D2/Thursday, with strong northwesterly upper-level flow persisting across the northern Rockies and central CONUS. This will support a continued downslope regime across the central High Plains and western Wyoming Basin, with elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected amid strong west-northwest surface winds and very low RH values. ...Portions of the central High Plains into the western Wyoming Basin... The synoptic-scale pattern will remain relatively consistent from today into D2/Thursday, with anomalously strong upper-level ridging persisting across the Southwest and strong northwesterly flow in place across the central Rockies. At the surface, high pressure across the Intermountain West will couple with surface low pressure shifting southeastward across southern Canada to support reduced RH values of 10-15% and west-northwesterly downslope winds of 20-25 mph. With persistent dry/windy conditions continuing to aid in the maintenance of receptive fuels, this is expected to yield critical fire weather conditions across much of southeastern Wyoming. Current guidance indicates mid-level flow will weaken slightly from D1 into D2, but deep boundary layer mixing may also support wind gusts of 30-35 mph across much of this area. Elevated fire weather concerns are also expected across adjacent regions, including much of southwestern Wyoming, portions of extreme northern Colorado, the western Nebraska Panhandle, extreme southwestern South Dakota, and extreme northeastern Utah, where sustained westerly surface winds of 15-20 mph are forecast to overlap reduced RH of 10-15%. Marginal fuel receptiveness and lower confidence in higher sustained winds are expected to limit the northern extent of widespread elevated fire weather concerns at this time; however, this area will be monitored for potential expansion as fuels continue to dry given the persistent pattern and resultant anomalous temperatures expected over much of the region. ..Chalmers.. 03/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will persist across portions of the central High Plains on Wednesday. An anomalously strong upper ridge will gradually build across the Southwest over the next 48 hours, which will establish a northwesterly flow regime over the central CONUS. With stronger mid-level flow displaced towards the northern Rockies, lee troughing will become most pronounced across central MT to eastern WY Wednesday morning through the afternoon. Confidence is fairly high (80%) in sustained winds between 15-25 mph across central WY into the NE Panhandle and far northeast CO. A resumption of westerly downslope flow will support RH reductions into the 20-25% range based on ensemble consensus. Drier/more well-mixed solutions hint at RH reductions as low as the 10-15% range, which would support a swath of critical fire weather conditions (mainly across central to southeast WY). However, confidence in this potential is limited based on modest ensemble probabilities (around 40-50% probability of RH reductions below 15%). Regardless, antecedent drought conditions and preceding dry/windy conditions on Tuesday will maintain dry fuels (and/or help cure fine fuels in areas that recently received precipitation) to support the fire weather threat Wednesday afternoon. ..Moore.. 03/17/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected today across the High Plains and southern Plains. Very dry conditions are prevalent across the central CONUS in the wake of a strong frontal passage (dewpoints in the single digits to low teens over the Plains are near/below the 10th percentile for mid-March). Surface high pressure over the southern CONUS will continue to shift east through the day as a lee trough deepens along the High Plains. The resulting pressure gradient winds across the southern Plains and off downslope flow the western slopes of the Rockies will promote elevated to critical fire weather conditions over regions with recent wildfire activity. ...Southern Plains... Forecast guidance continues to show strengthening southwest winds through the afternoon across central TX to central OK as the pressure gradient strengthens with the deepening surface trough along the High Plains. Relative humidity reductions will be most pronounced (and possibly as low as 10-15%) from western TX into southwest OK under the low-level thermal ridge. Model consensus suggests winds through this corridor will increase to 15-20 mph; however, guidance typically under-mixes the boundary layer in dry return flow regimes with higher RH values and weaker winds than actually observed. Based on this, the expectation is that winds under the thermal ridge will likely be sustained near 20 mph, which will increase the probability of sustained critical fire weather conditions. A targeted critical risk area has been introduced across this region. ...Central to southern High Plains... Westerly 15-20 mph winds off the central to southern Rockies will support several areas of elevated fire weather conditions from central and southeast WY southward into West TX. Forecast guidance show reasonably good agreement in RH reductions down to 20% with areas of 15% possible. Solutions that typically over-mix in these regimes (notably the RAP and HRRR) hint that 20-25 mph winds are possible across southeast WY into far northeast CO and parts of the NE Panhandle where active wildfires have been ongoing in recent days. Confidence in sustained critical conditions across this corridor is limited due to spread in guidance and poor ensemble agreement, but given the very dry conditions, observed trends will be monitored for the need for Critical highlights. ..Moore.. 03/17/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow over the CONUS will gradually recombine as the southern-stream trough merges with the northern trough over the Midwest and Appalachians D2/Wed. Ridging will intensify over the West as a cold front will sweep southeastward with a much cooler air mass and gusty northerly winds likely behind it. Some fire-weather potential remains possible over the southern and central Plains where drier and windy conditions are possible. However, forecast uncertainty is high. ...Central and southern High Plains... A modestly dry post-frontal air mass is likely to develop across the High Plains D2/Wednesday afternoon. While RH values will not be overly low (generally above 30%) gusty northerly winds of 20-30 mph and higher gusts are expected from southern NE into western KS and TX/OK. This may support brief elevated fire-weather conditions, especially across parts of the southern Plains. Generally the overlap of gusty winds and RH below criteria appears minimal with humidity quickly increasing through the day as colder air filters south. Additionally, the potential for precipitation from the prior day casts significant uncertainty on the potential for sustained elevated conditions. However, the strengthen of the northerly winds and some drying appears conducive to a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential in the southern High Plains where precipitation and cooler air should be minimized. Expansion is possible in subsequent outlooks, pending precipitation and frontal timing. ..Lyons.. 03/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... An upper low over northern Mexico will eject eastward into the southern Plains as a second upper trough moves over the northern Plains into the Midwest. At the surface, a lee cyclone will intensify and move eastward across parts of KS/OK dragging a trailing dryline with it over parts of the southern Plains. East of the dryline, rich low-level moisture and widespread showers/thunderstorms are expected. Dry and breezy conditions behind the dryline and east of the upper low appear likely to support some fire-weather potential. Isolated dry thunderstorms are also possible where lightning may interact with dry fuels over the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... As the upper low ejects eastward, the initial surface cyclone will move away to the northeast along the front. A secondary lee low will deepen over KS/OK at the apex of the dryline. This, along with strong flow aloft, will support gusty southwest winds across much of the southern High Plains. While humidity is unlikely to be overly low owing to cloud cover and mid-level moisture from the cold core upper low over NM, pockets of strong heating and downslope flow west of the dryline will support 20-30% RH values amid westerly wind of 20-30 mph. Elevated and brief critical fire-weather conditions are likely from the Rio Grande Valley northward across much of West TX and far eastern NM despite the modest RH minimums. Confidence in brief critical conditions is highest across the TX Big Bend region and the southern TX Panhandle where locally higher winds and lower RH may briefly overlap this afternoon. Thunderstorm development is probable this afternoon across much of the southern Plains along the dryline and beneath the upper low over parts of central NM. Precipitable water values, indicative of moisture above a dry sub-cloud layer, range from 0.5 to 0.8 of an inch and are not expected to support efficient rainfall accumulation given storm motions of 30-40 knots. While confidence in storms is relatively high, the exact coverage, and dryline position remain uncertain. The IsoDryT area was expanded slightly to the west/southwest to account for additional convection on the periphery of the upper low. Additional changes are likely in the day1 update as dryline placement and thunderstorm coverage/location details become clearer. ..Lyons.. 03/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z The upper level low currently over the southwest CONUS will push eastward across the southern US through the week. Upper level flow largely becomes zonal in the wake of this low, with shortwave trough passages impacting northern and central portions of the CONUS. This will lead to dry air in place just east of the Rocky Mountains over portions of the High Plains. While the pattern remains on track from previous days, the exact timing and placement of daily areas will likely fluctuate with surface features dominating the forecast. On Day 4/Thursday, strong west-northwest winds sustained up to 30 mph will impact the surface behind a frontal boundary. Thanks to the cold frontal passage, RHs will likely reach near-critical thresholds, bottoming out around 15-25% across a good portion of the High Plains stretching all the way from northeast New Mexico to eastern Wyoming. Thus, the existing two areas of 40% probabilities were combined and also extended further north just barely into southeastern Montana. The 70% area was similarly extended toward this direction over extreme eastern Wyoming and southwest South Dakota as well. Higher elevations of the Black Hills are not expected to reach critical thresholds. On Day 5/Friday and Day 6/Saturday, additional 40% probabilities were similarly added over portions of the same area. Thus, eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska in particular should expect multiple consecutive days of potential critical fire weather conditions on Day 4/Thursday through Day 6/Saturday leading into the coming weekend. Though, strong westerly winds will be less widespread on Day 5/Friday and Day 6/Saturday. This will lead to only slightly higher afternoon RHs as well with cooler air in place and slightly less mixing. ..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z An Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was introduced overlapping portions of the existing Elevated area and also extending north into southwestern and central Kansas. As previously mentioned in the initial Day 2/Tuesday Outlook, the environment is supportive of thunderstorm development across much of the southern Plains as also indicated in the general thunderstorm forecast. Along and behind the dryline on the western periphery of anticipated severe convection, precipitable water values, indicative of moisture above a dry sub-cloud layer, range from 0.5 to 0.8 of an inch and are not expected to lead to significant rainfall accumulation. Storm motion peaking at 30-40 knots across the southern portion of the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area is also an additive factor in this environment. While confidence exists in dry thunderstorm development on Day 2/Tuesday, the exact coverage, in particular adjacent to and within the southern end of the drawn area, could be affected by changes in the movement of the surface dryline and/or the cutoff low's progression. The Elevated area was trimmed slightly across portions of extreme southeastern New Mexico and west-central Texas in agreement with latest forecast guidance. Guidance also indicates that portions of the Elevated area may not reach elevated criteria with recent HREF/REFS probabilities of less than 20%. ..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/09/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026/ ...Synopsis... The upper low over northern Mexico will eject eastward into the southern Plains D2/Tuesday. At the surface, a lee cyclone will intensify and move eastward across parts of KS/OK dragging a trailing dryline with it over parts of the southern Plains. East of the dryline, rich low-level moisture and widespread showers/thunderstorms are expected. Dry and breezy conditions behind the dryline and east of the upper low appear likely to support some fire-weather potential. ...Southern High Plains... As the upper low over the Southwest moves northeastward, strong flow aloft and ascent will overspread parts of the southern High Plains. A surface low will deepen with a surface trough/dryline supporting dry downslope flow across the southern Rockies and High Plains on D2 (Tuesday afternoon). Gusty west/southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected along with afternoon humidity of 20-25%. This should support elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of West TX, the Rio Grande Valley and far eastern NM where fuels remain dry and receptive. The potential for precipitation and the location of the dryline remain a significant source of uncertainty on the overall areal extent and magnitude of the fire-weather threat D2/Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected both to the west and east of the dryline. Cloud cover and increasing humidity may also limit the potential for more intense fire-weather conditions despite relatively strong surface winds. Changes will likely be needed to the eastern extent of the Elevated area as details surrounding dryline and precipitation placement become clearer on Day1/Monday. While storms are likely over central NM, relatively modest moisture profiles (PWATS generally under 0.6 inches) suggest a few of these storms may not be overly productive for wetting rainfall. With steep low-level lapse rates and modest buoyancy, a few lightning strikes are possible. These storms could be drier with the potential for lightning to interact with receptive fuels. However, dry thunderstorm coverage appears too low to introduce probabilities at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Satellite imagery and surface observations show areas of low level clouds and fog adjacent to the Elevated area over the central High Plains this morning. However, these clouds are already beginning to clear as daytime heating continues across the region. As mixing increases, clearing any remaining clouds and increasing surface winds, all areas remain on track to meet thresholds later today. Thus, only minor tweaks were made to the outlook areas to reflect the latest trends in forecast guidance placement of the aforementioned surface features. While RH conditions look to be more marginal across the central High Plains outlook area, strong westerly winds are still anticipated over this region this afternoon with plenty of solar radiation and above normal temperatures. ..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/09/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0216 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026/ ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will continue over the US today as an upper low moves into the Southwest and a second upper trough crosses the northern Rockies. Surface cyclogenesis across the High Plains will support another day of diurnally-enhanced westerly downslope flow over regions with receptive fuels. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are probable. ...Central High Plains... Ahead of the northern upper trough, initial cyclogenesis should continue as a trailing lee trough deepens over the High Plains. Westerly low-level winds are expected to increase near the surface low, and will peak during the late afternoon hours. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with RH minimums falling to near 20% are expected. Despite some recent precipitation, fine fuels are receptive after multiple days of persistent downslope winds, supporting widespread elevated and fire-weather conditions this afternoon across portions of eastern WY into western and central NE. Fire-weather conditions will end overnight as a cold front associated with the departing surface low moves southward, ushering in cooler air over the central Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Lee troughing south of the deepening surface low will support 15-25 mph westerly winds across northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles this afternoon. Dry air advecting and downsloping into the region today will promote RH minimums in the single digits to low teens. A swath of critical fire weather conditions appears likely from northeast NM into the TX Panhandle under a belt of stronger flow aloft. Despite precipitation in the last several days, continued drying and downslope winds will support drying of fine fuels and elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions into parts of western OK. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... The upper low over northern Mexico will eject eastward into the southern Plains D2/Tuesday. At the surface, a lee cyclone will intensify and move eastward across parts of KS/OK dragging a trailing dryline with it over parts of the southern Plains. East of the dryline, rich low-level moisture and widespread showers/thunderstorms are expected. Dry and breezy conditions behind the dryline and east of the upper low appear likely to support some fire-weather potential. ...Southern High Plains... As the upper low over the Southwest moves northeastward, strong flow aloft and ascent will overspread parts of the southern High Plains. A surface low will deepen with a surface trough/dryline supporting dry downslope flow across the southern Rockies and High Plains on D2 (Tuesday afternoon). Gusty west/southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected along with afternoon humidity of 20-25%. This should support elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of West TX, the Rio Grande Valley and far eastern NM where fuels remain dry and receptive. The potential for precipitation and the location of the dryline remain a significant source of uncertainty on the overall areal extent and magnitude of the fire-weather threat D2/Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected both to the west and east of the dryline. Cloud cover and increasing humidity may also limit the potential for more intense fire-weather conditions despite relatively strong surface winds. Changes will likely be needed to the eastern extent of the Elevated area as details surrounding dryline and precipitation placement become clearer on Day1/Monday. While storms are likely over central NM, relatively modest moisture profiles (PWATS generally under 0.6 inches) suggest a few of these storms may not be overly productive for wetting rainfall. With steep low-level lapse rates and modest buoyancy, a few lightning strikes are possible. These storms could be drier with the potential for lightning to interact with receptive fuels. However, dry thunderstorm coverage appears too low to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Lyons.. 03/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will continue over the US today as an upper low moves into the Southwest and a second upper trough crosses the northern Rockies. Surface cyclogenesis across the High Plains will support another day of diurnally-enhanced westerly downslope flow over regions with receptive fuels. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are probable. ...Central High Plains... Ahead of the northern upper trough, initial cyclogenesis should continue as a trailing lee trough deepens over the High Plains. Westerly low-level winds are expected to increase near the surface low, and will peak during the late afternoon hours. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with RH minimums falling to near 20% are expected. Despite some recent precipitation, fine fuels are receptive after multiple days of persistent downslope winds, supporting widespread elevated and fire-weather conditions this afternoon across portions of eastern WY into western and central NE. Fire-weather conditions will end overnight as a cold front associated with the departing surface low moves southward, ushering in cooler air over the central Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Lee troughing south of the deepening surface low will support 15-25 mph westerly winds across northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles this afternoon. Dry air advecting and downsloping into the region today will promote RH minimums in the single digits to low teens. A swath of critical fire weather conditions appears likely from northeast NM into the TX Panhandle under a belt of stronger flow aloft. Despite precipitation in the last several days, continued drying and downslope winds will support drying of fine fuels and elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions into parts of western OK. ..Lyons.. 03/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z An upper low will merge with a mid-level trough and traverse the Plains early this week, before ejecting into the Atlantic by the weekend. Thereafter, a zonal upper-air pattern will overspread the CONUS through the weekend. The initial passage of a surface trough will result in high pressure and somewhat dry air overspreading the CONUS east of the Rockies through the week. First, downslope flow over the southern Rockies will result in dry/breezy conditions over portions of the southern High Plains on Day 3 (Tuesday), where 40 percent critical probabilities have been introduced. Strong northerly surface flow will then overspread the Plains on Day 4 (Wednesday) with the initial high pressure surge, though questions of how low RH will get precludes Critical probabilities at this time. A mid-level impulse, with a 100+ kt mid-level jet streak, will overspread the northern Plains on Day 5/Thursday, resulting in strong surface low development. Widespread dry and windy conditions are expected across the High Plains (delineated by 40 percent Critical probabilities) due to gradient flow. 70 percent Critical probabilities have been added across western Nebraska and immediate surrounding areas, where medium-range guidance consensus and consistency shows Critically dry/windy conditions overlapping dry fuels. Regionally dry and breezy conditions should continue across portions of the central High Plains on Friday and perhaps into the weekend, as strong upper flow continues to overspread the region. ..Squitieri.. 03/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA... The primary change to this outlook was to add a Critical area for portions of eastern Wyoming into western Nebraska. Here, the latest guidance consensus depicts sustained westerly surface winds exceeding 20 mph on a widespread basis for several hours tomorrow afternoon. Though guidance varies a bit more in terms of minimal RH, several guidance members depict RH dipping into the 15-20 range on a widespread basis. When also factoring in preceding days of dry conditions and an overall lack of recent appreciable precipitation accumulations, fuels should be receptive enough to wildfire-spread to warrant Critical highlights. The previous forecast across the southern High Plains remains on track, with only a few modifications made to the highlights to adjust for the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 03/08/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0306 AM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026/ ...Synopsis... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are anticipated across parts of the southern and central High Plains on Monday. Strong zonal flow across the northern Rockies will continue to promote lee troughing and the initial stages of cyclogenesis along the High Plains through Monday evening. This will support another day of diurnally-enhanced westerly downslope flow over regions with receptive fuels. ...Southern High Plains... Persistent lee troughing will support another day of 15-25 mph westerly winds across northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles where fuels will remain very dry. Dry air advecting into the region today through Monday afternoon will promote RH minimums in the single digits to low teens. A swath of critical fire weather conditions appears likely from northeast NM into the TX Panhandle under a belt of stronger flow near 850 mb. While confidence in critical conditions is fairly high within this corridor (60-80% chance of sustained critical conditions per HREF forecasts), some deterministic solutions, notably the recent 00z HRRR run, do show more widespread coverage of 20-25 mph winds across the TX Panhandle and into far western OK. ...Central High Plains... A slight southward displacement of the mid-level jet will focus the strongest surface pressure falls - and the early stages of cyclogenesis - across portions of northeast WY through Monday evening. Westerly low-level winds are expected to increase on the western and southern peripheries of the low, and will likely be strongest during the late afternoon hours when boundary-layer heating/mixing is maximized. Latest guidance depicts sustained winds of 15-20 mph with RH minimums falling to near 20% after multiple days of persistent downslope winds. Although portions of the region have received precipitation over the past 72 hours, fine fuels will likely see sufficient drying over the next 48 hours to support fire spread on Monday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor changes made to the southern Plains highlights to account for the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 03/08/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CST Sun Mar 08 2026/ ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather concerns are expected this afternoon across portions of the High Plains. Weak lee troughing is noted in early-morning surface observations along the High Plains with further deepening anticipated through late afternoon as initially weak mid-level flow over the Rockies strengthens later today. Surface pressure falls are expected to be most pronounced across southeast CO and eastern MT/WY, which should support strengthening westerly winds and increase fire weather potential. ...Southern High Plains... Focused lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across southeast CO this afternoon, which will strengthen westerly downslope winds out of NM into the OK/TX Panhandle region. Early-morning surface observations are sampling single-digit dewpoints across northern NM, which is around the 10th percentile for early March. Aside from RAP solutions, recent guidance appears to be assimilating this very dry air mass well and depicts RH minimums in the 10-15% range as the air mass is advected east. Forecast consensus also suggests that sustained winds between 15-25 mph are likely with gusts between 30-35 mph probable. Based on recent fire activity over the past week and substantial monthly rainfall deficits (around 5% of normal), fuels will likely support fire spread. ...Northern High Plains... A surface trough/cold front associated with a clipper low traversing the Canadian Prairies is expected to migrate along the International border today. This will regionally augment the low-level pressure gradient as mid-level flow strengthens aloft. The combined effect will be increasing westerly downslope winds across eastern MT and WY. Slightly above seasonal moisture content is noted in recent observations, which yielded 20-25% RH minimums Saturday despite the effects of downslope warming/drying. Similar humidity conditions are expected today, which should result in primarily elevated fire weather conditions across the region. Nonetheless, fuels remain receptive across the region and will support a fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are anticipated across parts of the southern and central High Plains on Monday. Strong zonal flow across the northern Rockies will continue to promote lee troughing and the initial stages of cyclogenesis along the High Plains through Monday evening. This will support another day of diurnally-enhanced westerly downslope flow over regions with receptive fuels. ...Southern High Plains... Persistent lee troughing will support another day of 15-25 mph westerly winds across northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles where fuels will remain very dry. Dry air advecting into the region today through Monday afternoon will promote RH minimums in the single digits to low teens. A swath of critical fire weather conditions appears likely from northeast NM into the TX Panhandle under a belt of stronger flow near 850 mb. While confidence in critical conditions is fairly high within this corridor (60-80% chance of sustained critical conditions per HREF forecasts), some deterministic solutions, notably the recent 00z HRRR run, do show more widespread coverage of 20-25 mph winds across the TX Panhandle and into far western OK. ...Central High Plains... A slight southward displacement of the mid-level jet will focus the strongest surface pressure falls - and the early stages of cyclogenesis - across portions of northeast WY through Monday evening. Westerly low-level winds are expected to increase on the western and southern peripheries of the low, and will likely be strongest during the late afternoon hours when boundary-layer heating/mixing is maximized. Latest guidance depicts sustained winds of 15-20 mph with RH minimums falling to near 20% after multiple days of persistent downslope winds. Although portions of the region have received precipitation over the past 72 hours, fine fuels will likely see sufficient drying over the next 48 hours to support fire spread on Monday afternoon. ..Moore.. 03/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CST Sun Mar 08 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES... ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather concerns are expected this afternoon across portions of the High Plains. Weak lee troughing is noted in early-morning surface observations along the High Plains with further deepening anticipated through late afternoon as initially weak mid-level flow over the Rockies strengthens later today. Surface pressure falls are expected to be most pronounced across southeast CO and eastern MT/WY, which should support strengthening westerly winds and increase fire weather potential. ...Southern High Plains... Focused lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across southeast CO this afternoon, which will strengthen westerly downslope winds out of NM into the OK/TX Panhandle region. Early-morning surface observations are sampling single-digit dewpoints across northern NM, which is around the 10th percentile for early March. Aside from RAP solutions, recent guidance appears to be assimilating this very dry air mass well and depicts RH minimums in the 10-15% range as the air mass is advected east. Forecast consensus also suggests that sustained winds between 15-25 mph are likely with gusts between 30-35 mph probable. Based on recent fire activity over the past week and substantial monthly rainfall deficits (around 5% of normal), fuels will likely support fire spread. ...Northern High Plains... A surface trough/cold front associated with a clipper low traversing the Canadian Prairies is expected to migrate along the International border today. This will regionally augment the low-level pressure gradient as mid-level flow strengthens aloft. The combined effect will be increasing westerly downslope winds across eastern MT and WY. Slightly above seasonal moisture content is noted in recent observations, which yielded 20-25% RH minimums Saturday despite the effects of downslope warming/drying. Similar humidity conditions are expected today, which should result in primarily elevated fire weather conditions across the region. Nonetheless, fuels remain receptive across the region and will support a fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 03/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CST Sat Mar 07 2026 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A mid-level cutoff low and upper trough will merge while ejecting into the Plains, tracking toward the East Coast through the middle of next week. Surface low development is expected across the central U.S. with the passage of the merging upper troughs early next week. This upper air pattern will support a few instances of regional dry downslope flow, especially across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Day 3 (Monday), where 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced. Dry downslope flow may continue across the southern High Plains on Day 4 (Tuesday), but possible preceding rainfall and marginal RH precludes Critical probabilities this outlook. By the middle of next week into next weekend, a zonal upper flow pattern will become established over the central U.S. with the departure of the upper trough. A pronounced mid-level impulse and accompanying rapidly eastward progressing surface low will support widespread dry and windy conditions across much of the High Plains on Day 6 (Thursday) given both strong gradient and downslope induced surface flow. 40% Critical probabilities were introduced across portions of the central and southern High Plains, where fuels are most receptive to wildfire spread and are forecast to receive minimal rainfall into next week. ..Squitieri.. 03/07/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CST Sat Mar 07 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... ...Southern High Plains... Critical highlights have been added to portions of northeastern New Mexico, into the western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles vicinity. Here, downslope flow will be strongest, with the latest guidance consensus depicting 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds overlapping with 10-15 percent RH during the mid- to late-afternoon time frame. Otherwise, the previous forecast in this area remains on track. ...Northern High Plains... The latest guidance consensus depicts surface trough intensification across the northern Plains around afternoon peak heating, with 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds appearing more likely. These winds will coincide with 20-25 percent RH for several hours tomorrow afternoon, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights given fuels that are at least marginally receptive to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 03/07/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026/ ...Synopsis... Regional fire weather concerns are expected for Sunday across parts of the southern High Plains and potentially the northern High Plains. Zonal flow across the Rockies is expected to strengthen through the weekend as an upper low meanders over the lower CO River Valley and weak upper disturbances migrate along the U.S./Canadian border. This flow regime should promote lee troughing along the high Plains with a corresponding uptick in dry westerly downslope flow off the higher terrain. ...Southern High Plains... Latest guidance hints that surface pressure falls will be regionally most pronounced across southeast CO into southwest KS and the OK Panhandle region. This will support 15-20 mph southwest winds across northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles. Dry conditions will already be in place in the wake of Friday's frontal passage, so confidence is reasonably high in observing RH reductions into the teens to low 20s. Active fires across the area over the past three days indicate that fuels are receptive amid ongoing drought conditions. ...Northern High Plains... As with D1/Saturday, a progressive shortwave trough migrating along the International border will support some increase west/northwest winds along the northern High Plains Sunday afternoon. However, with surface pressure falls more focused across northeast MT, confidence in sustained 15-20 mph winds is somewhat lower across eastern WY and SD. Regardless, localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible as RH values fall to near 20% across a region with receptive fuels. ...Southern California Coast... An offshore wind event will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period and is expected to peak Sunday morning between 14-18 UTC before gradually abating later in the day. Sustained winds between 20-25 mph are expected with gusts as high as 45 mph possible within the lee of the coastal terrain. Despite fairly high confidence in critical wind speeds, recent fuel analyses show that fuels are currently not receptive to fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0930 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 03/07/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026/ ...Synopsis... Early-morning surface observations show a strong cold front pushing east through the Midwest and southeast across the Plains. This feature is expected to continue pushing east/southeast through today as cool temperatures and high pressure follow in its wake. A combination of cool temperatures, recent rainfall, and widespread rain chances today from the OH Valley into the lower MS Valley will limit fire weather concerns for most locations east of the Rockies, though localized fire weather potential is noted across parts of the northern High Plains. ...Northern High Plains... A clipper low traversing the Canadian Prairies will support strengthening west/northwest gradient winds through the late afternoon. Wind speeds upwards of 15-25 mph are expected and may coincide with RH reductions into the 15-25% range within the downslope flow regime across central to eastern WY. Fire weather concerns will most likely be focused across far east-central WY into adjacent portions of NE and SD where ERC values are near seasonal highs and limited precipitation has fallen over the past 72 hours per MRMS estimates. ...Southern California Coast... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper low over the lower CO River Valley. This feature will continue to settle southward into northwest Mexico as northeasterly mid-level winds strengthen over southern CA. A combination of strong mid to upper-level offshore flow coupled with a moderate offshore pressure gradient (LAX-DAG gradient forecast to be around -5 mb) will support east/northeast winds of 15-25 mph (gusting to 35-45 mph at times) today through early Sunday morning. While confidence in these winds is fairly high due to strong agreement among deterministic and ensemble solutions, latest fuels analyses suggest that fuels remain unsupportive of fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... Regional fire weather concerns are expected for Sunday across parts of the southern High Plains and potentially the northern High Plains. Zonal flow across the Rockies is expected to strengthen through the weekend as an upper low meanders over the lower CO River Valley and weak upper disturbances migrate along the U.S./Canadian border. This flow regime should promote lee troughing along the high Plains with a corresponding uptick in dry westerly downslope flow off the higher terrain. ...Southern High Plains... Latest guidance hints that surface pressure falls will be regionally most pronounced across southeast CO into southwest KS and the OK Panhandle region. This will support 15-20 mph southwest winds across northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles. Dry conditions will already be in place in the wake of Friday's frontal passage, so confidence is reasonably high in observing RH reductions into the teens to low 20s. Active fires across the area over the past three days indicate that fuels are receptive amid ongoing drought conditions. ...Northern High Plains... As with D1/Saturday, a progressive shortwave trough migrating along the International border will support some increase west/northwest winds along the northern High Plains Sunday afternoon. However, with surface pressure falls more focused across northeast MT, confidence in sustained 15-20 mph winds is somewhat lower across eastern WY and SD. Regardless, localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible as RH values fall to near 20% across a region with receptive fuels. ...Southern California Coast... An offshore wind event will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period and is expected to peak Sunday morning between 14-18 UTC before gradually abating later in the day. Sustained winds between 20-25 mph are expected with gusts as high as 45 mph possible within the lee of the coastal terrain. Despite fairly high confidence in critical wind speeds, recent fuel analyses show that fuels are currently not receptive to fire spread. ..Moore.. 03/07/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... Early-morning surface observations show a strong cold front pushing east through the Midwest and southeast across the Plains. This feature is expected to continue pushing east/southeast through today as cool temperatures and high pressure follow in its wake. A combination of cool temperatures, recent rainfall, and widespread rain chances today from the OH Valley into the lower MS Valley will limit fire weather concerns for most locations east of the Rockies, though localized fire weather potential is noted across parts of the northern High Plains. ...Northern High Plains... A clipper low traversing the Canadian Prairies will support strengthening west/northwest gradient winds through the late afternoon. Wind speeds upwards of 15-25 mph are expected and may coincide with RH reductions into the 15-25% range within the downslope flow regime across central to eastern WY. Fire weather concerns will most likely be focused across far east-central WY into adjacent portions of NE and SD where ERC values are near seasonal highs and limited precipitation has fallen over the past 72 hours per MRMS estimates. ...Southern California Coast... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper low over the lower CO River Valley. This feature will continue to settle southward into northwest Mexico as northeasterly mid-level winds strengthen over southern CA. A combination of strong mid to upper-level offshore flow coupled with a moderate offshore pressure gradient (LAX-DAG gradient forecast to be around -5 mb) will support east/northeast winds of 15-25 mph (gusting to 35-45 mph at times) today through early Sunday morning. While confidence in these winds is fairly high due to strong agreement among deterministic and ensemble solutions, latest fuels analyses suggest that fuels remain unsupportive of fire spread. ..Moore.. 03/07/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0938 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST KANSAS...THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND MUCH OF WEST TEXAS... The eastern extent of the Elevated/Critical areas were expanded slightly across western Oklahoma and west/central Texas. This was to accommodate an eastward shift of the dryline shown with the latest forecast guidance, which has a good handle on its current placement and orientation as of this morning. Small portions of the eastern Critical area were also excluded to account for recent isolated rainfall over portions of the Texas Panhandle. The latest model guidance is, so far, in agreement with the position of the previously mentioned cold front constraining the northern periphery of the Elevated/Critical areas today. Satellite imagery and surface observations did show areas of stratus and fog in the vicinity of the expanded area. However, as of daybreak, those conditions were already beginning to retreat eastward. Additionally, clear skies, low surface RHs near 15-25%, and southwesterly winds gusting in excess of 25 mph are being observed over portions of southeast New Mexico. Thus, conditions within western portions of the Critical area are already beginning to take shape. ..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/06/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0127 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026/ ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will develop over the CONUS through today as an upper-level shortwave trough centered over the Four Corners ejects northeastward across the central Great Plains while a cutoff low develops over Arizona. At the surface, a strong lee surface cyclone will develop southeastward from Colorado into northwestern Oklahoma before transitioning quickly northeastward across the central Great Plains. Strong southwesterly surface winds and very low RH values behind a trailing dryline will support elevated to critical fire weather conditions across portions of the southern High Plains. A strong cold front will then progress southward late in the period. ...Eastern New Mexico into portions of West Texas and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... Southwesterly mid-level flow will strengthen as a shortwave trough ejects northeastward across the central Great Plains today. Aided by a strong surface pressure gradient to the southwest of the surface low, this mid-level flow will contribute to sustained southwesterly surface winds of 20-25 mph overlapping very low RH values of 10-15% behind an eastward progressing dryline. With receptive fuels across the region, these conditions will yield critical fire weather conditions across much of eastern New Mexico and West Texas northward through the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and into southwestern Kansas. The lone exception is across portions of the eastern Texas Panhandle where two areas of recent heavier rainfall are expected to locally reduce fire weather concerns. Within the Critical highlights, a 40+ kt 700 mb jet overlapping steep low-level lapse rates will favor a corridor of locally stronger winds (sustained surface winds of 20-30 mph with sporadic gusts to 35-45 mph possible) from east-central New Mexico northeastward into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Elsewhere across the southern High Plains, westerly to southwesterly sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph will overlap low RH values of 10-20%, supporting elevated fire weather conditions from the Texas Big Bend northward to southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. A cold front will then move southward late in the period, bringing a wind shift to north/northeasterly winds, which may allow for an additional 2-3 hours of elevated fire weather conditions before cooler temperatures and increased RH filter in. Some uncertainty remains regarding the northern and eastern extents of elevated/critical conditions due to the timing of the cold front as well as the movement of the dryline, respectively. This will continue to be monitored closely for any additional adjustments. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper-level flow will split on D2/Saturday, with a mid-level shortwave trough ejecting northeastward across the central Great Plains and Great Lakes regions while a closed upper-low retrogrades southwestward across portions of the Southwest, eventually settling off the coast of northern Baja California. At the surface, moderately strong high pressure will build into the Great Basin, with a low pressure center settling over Baja California. Meanwhile, a second surface low will progress northeastward from the northern Great Lakes across southeastern Canada, with an attendant cold front moving southeastward across the eastern CONUS. Widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures accompanying this front are expected to limit fire weather concerns at this time. ...Portions of Southern California... Aided by strong northeasterly mid-level flow aloft, the placement of the aforementioned surface features across the West will contribute to strong and gusty offshore/northeast flow over portions of Southern California. Sustained northeasterly surface winds of 20-25 mph (with gusts as high as 35-45 mph in favored coastal/terrain areas) are forecast to overlap reduced RH of 15-20%; however, unreceptive fuels are expected to preclude widespread fire weather concerns at this time. ..Chalmers/Moore.. 03/06/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST KANSAS...THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND MUCH OF WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will develop over the CONUS through today as an upper-level shortwave trough centered over the Four Corners ejects northeastward across the central Great Plains while a cutoff low develops over Arizona. At the surface, a strong lee surface cyclone will develop southeastward from Colorado into northwestern Oklahoma before transitioning quickly northeastward across the central Great Plains. Strong southwesterly surface winds and very low RH values behind a trailing dryline will support elevated to critical fire weather conditions across portions of the southern High Plains. A strong cold front will then progress southward late in the period. ...Eastern New Mexico into portions of West Texas and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... Southwesterly mid-level flow will strengthen as a shortwave trough ejects northeastward across the central Great Plains today. Aided by a strong surface pressure gradient to the southwest of the surface low, this mid-level flow will contribute to sustained southwesterly surface winds of 20-25 mph overlapping very low RH values of 10-15% behind an eastward progressing dryline. With receptive fuels across the region, these conditions will yield critical fire weather conditions across much of eastern New Mexico and West Texas northward through the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and into southwestern Kansas. The lone exception is across portions of the eastern Texas Panhandle where two areas of recent heavier rainfall are expected to locally reduce fire weather concerns. Within the Critical highlights, a 40+ kt 700 mb jet overlapping steep low-level lapse rates will favor a corridor of locally stronger winds (sustained surface winds of 20-30 mph with sporadic gusts to 35-45 mph possible) from east-central New Mexico northeastward into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Elsewhere across the southern High Plains, westerly to southwesterly sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph will overlap low RH values of 10-20%, supporting elevated fire weather conditions from the Texas Big Bend northward to southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. A cold front will then move southward late in the period, bringing a wind shift to north/northeasterly winds, which may allow for an additional 2-3 hours of elevated fire weather conditions before cooler temperatures and increased RH filter in. Some uncertainty remains regarding the northern and eastern extents of elevated/critical conditions due to the timing of the cold front as well as the movement of the dryline, respectively. This will continue to be monitored closely for any additional adjustments. ..Chalmers/Moore.. 03/06/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CST Thu Mar 05 2026 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Upper-level flow will split on Day 3/Saturday and a cutoff upper low will retrograde through Arizona and settle over Baja California by Day 4/Sunday. This low begins to move eastward across the southwest US and Mexico on Day 5/Monday and progresses through Texas on Day 7/Wednesday. On Day 3/Saturday, the placement of the upper low near southern California will contribute to strong and gusty offshore/northeast flow over the area. However, elevated live fuel moisture will inhibit the need for consideration of probabilities over this area. As a shortwave trough moves across the northern High Plains during this same time frame, marginally elevated fire weather conditions are expected to be negated by recent cold temperatures and precipitation. On Day 4/Sunday and Day 5/Monday, as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move eastward, surface winds will increase to near Elevated thresholds over northeast New Mexico and western portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Eastern portions of the Southwest and western portions of the southern Plains will remain under dry, but at times cooler, conditions through the outlook period. Early next week, there are some differences in forecast guidance regarding the timing and speed of the cutoff low, but the overall track remains similar. Given the recent precipitation and the overall pattern, no areas of critical fire weather are currently anticipated through the remainder of the extended period. ..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/05/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Thu Mar 05 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO...EXTREME SOUTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST KANSAS...MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE... The Critical area was expanded to the north, east, and west to also include extreme southwestern Kansas and additional portions of west Texas, the Oklahoma Panhandle, and south-central New Mexico. The Elevated area was also expanded to the north and east farther into Oklahoma and central Kansas. Along the eastward extent of the Critical area, the strongest surface winds behind the dryline will surge eastward, especially across west Texas. However, the expected precipitation today associated with forecast severe storms initiating and drifting northeast from the dryline precluded an eastward expansion of the Elevated area over the same region. Farther north across the Oklahoma Panhandle and portions of southwest/central Kansas, convection is not expected to impact fuel conditions through at least the next 36 hours. Thus, the Elevated and Critical areas were expanded over southwest/central Kansas and portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles to encompass the dry slot, with surface RHs near 10-15%, and southwest sustained winds of 20-30 mph. Significant differences remain between forecast guidance on the timing and orientation of the aforementioned surface cold front. This continued uncertainty has impeded any farther expansion of Elevated/Critical areas to the north and east with this issuance, but this will be watched closely for subsequent outlooks. Even so, behind the dry cold frontal passage, winds will shift to north-northwest allowing an additional 2 to 3 hours of elevated conditions. The Critical area was also expanded, both toward the east and west, along the south side of the previous Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook to include portions of west Texas and more of south-central New Mexico. Uncertainty as to how far west the critical conditions would reach has been higher in these areas over the last couple of days. However, forecast guidance does continue to show that critical thresholds will be met and is only bolstered by the antecedent fuel conditions thanks to the Day 1/Thursday drying. ..Stearns/Nauslar.. 03/05/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026/ ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will develop over the CONUS through D2/Friday as an upper-level shortwave trough centered over the Four Corners ejects northeastward across the central Great Plains while a cutoff low develops over Arizona. At the surface, strong westerly to southwesterly downslope winds and very low RH values behind an eastward progressing dryline will support elevated to critical fire weather conditions across portions of the southern High Plains. A strong cold front will then progresses southward late in the period. ...Portions of eastern New Mexico into west Texas and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... Mid-level southwesterly flow will strengthen as a shortwave trough ejects northeastward across the central Great Plains on Friday. This strong mid-level flow aided by a lee surface cyclone will contribute to 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, with occasional gusts to 30-40 mph. These strong winds will overlap very low RH values of 10-15% behind an eastward progressing dryline, yielding critical fire weather conditions for portions of West Texas, eastern New Mexico, and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Elsewhere across the southern High Plains, sustained southwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph will overlap very low RH values of 10-20%, supporting elevated fire weather conditions across much of west Texas northward to southeastern Colorado/southwestern Kansas. A cold front will then move southward late in the period, bringing cooler temperatures, increased RH, and a sharp shift to northerly surface winds. There remains some uncertainty regarding the eastern and northern extents of elevated/critical fire weather conditions due to the placement/movement of the dryline as well as the southward progression of the cold front, respectively. Additionally, convection forecast along the dryline across portions of the Texas Panhandle today may bring significant rain to some areas that could reduce fire weather concerns. However, an eastward expansion of Elevated/Critical highlights may be needed for areas that do not see significant rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...