Peter Matejic

@statspeter.bsky.social

1532 Followers 1361 Following

Chief Analyst, Insights and Analysis, at the Joseph Rowntree Foundation working to solve UK Poverty

A chart showing the contribution to changes in CPI by category. Transport is driving inflation up. Communications is marginally doing the same. Education and health have a neutral effect, while the other eight categories are driving this downwards, with food having the largest downwards influence. The net effect of all these changes are that inflation is stable.
A horizontal bar chart showing healthy life expectancy of 21 high-income countries in 2011 and 2021. Japan had the highest healthy life expectancy in both years, while the United States had the lowest in both years. The UK has now got the next lowest healthy life expectancy when in 2011 it was in 14th place, a drop of 6 places.
A horizontal bar chart showing the change in healthy life expectancy of 21 high-income countries over the decade to 2021. Norway and Japan saw the biggest improvements of an extra year of healthy life, while the United States saw the biggest fall of over 2 years of healthy life. The UK saw a fall of 8 months.
Chart showing income growth from 2019/20 to 2024/25 and then a forecast from 2025/26 to 2030/31. Average household annual income after housing costs in 2029/30 is forecast only be £160 higher than a decade earlier, a rise of just 0.4%.
A chart showing how regular wages are growing after taking account of inflation. The first few months of the period starting September 2023 showed relatively slow growth, but there was consistent growth between February 2024 and September 2024, meaning wages grew by 2.4% over the year. This latter period is in contrast to the period starting September 2024, where growth has hovered around zero, ending up as an increase of just 0.3% over 17 months to February 2026.
A horizontal bar chart showing that man aged 45-49 in 2022-2024 in the most deprived tenth of areas is expected to live 30.7 further years made up of 14.2 years of good health and 16.5 years of poor health, compared to 39.7 further years a man that age in the least deprived tenth of areas is expected to live made up of 28.5 years of good health and 11.2 years of poor health.
A horizontal bar chart showing that man aged 45-49 in 2022-2024 in the most deprived tenth of areas is expected to live 30.7 further years, 9.0 years less than the 39.7 further years a man that age in the least deprived tenth of areas is expected to live.
A horizontal bar chart showing that a boy born between 2022-2024 in the most deprived tenth of areas is expected to have 49.8 years of good health, 2.3 years less than the 52.1 years a boy born in the most deprived tenth of areas in 2013-2015 is expected to have. a girl born between 2022-2024 in the most deprived tenth of areas is expected to have 48.2 years of good health, 4.0 years less than the 52.2 years a girl born in the most deprived tenth of areas in 2013-2015 is expected to have.
A horizontal bar chart showing that a boy born between 2022-2024 in the most deprived tenth of areas is expected to have 49.8 years of good health, 19.4 years less than the 69.2 years a boy born in least deprived tenth of areas is expected to have. a girl born between 2022-2024 in the most deprived tenth of areas is expected to have 48.2 years of good health, 20.3 years less than the 68.5 years a girl born in least deprived tenth of areas is expected to have.
A horizontal bar chart showing that a girl born between 2022-2024 in the most deprived tenth of areas is expected to live 78.3 years, 8.1 years less than the 86.4 years a girl born in least deprived tenth of areas is expected to live
A horizontal bar chart showing that a boy born between 2022-2024 in the most deprived tenth of areas is expected to live 72.3 years, 10.4 years less than the 83.6 years a boy born in least deprived tenth of areas is expected to live
Ratio of rents to earnings by region, showing London, South East, South West and East have a greater than 30% ratio of average private rents to average full-time earnings.
An infographic saying that there were around 13.4 million people were in poverty in 2024/25, a rise of 500,000 in overall poverty between 2023/24 and 2024/25. This was made up of: 4.0 million children (no change) 7.7 million working-age adults [up 300k] 1.7 million pensioners [up 200k]
DWP modelling shows a fall of 400,000 in child poverty over the current Parliament. This would be the biggest on record, exceeding falls of 300,000 under the first Government of Tony Blair and the Government of Harold Wilson and James Callaghan
When looked at on as similar a basis as possible, OBR data shows a very flat profile from Q4 2025 to Q4 2029, whereas JRF shows a very small rise over the period, which turns into a fall once housing costs is taken into account.
DWP modelling show a fall of 400,000 over the current Parliament. This would be the biggest on record, exceeding falls of 300,000 under the first Government of Tony Blair and the Government of Harold Wilson and James Callaghan.
Between 2011/12 and 2023/24, child poverty rose by 900,000 in total. This is entirely due to increases in poverty in families with three or more children, with a small fall in poverty for smaller families over the period.
A chart showing how regular wages are growing after taking account of inflation. The first few months of the period starting September 2023 showed relatively slow growth, but there was consistent growth between February 2024 and September 2024, meaning wages grew by 2.4% over the year. This latter period is in contrast to the period starting September 2024, where growth has hovered around zero, ending up as an increase of just 0.4%.
A chart showing how far the Universal Credit Standard Allowance rate for singles lag behind levels needed for essentials. The gap is still over £20 a week after April 2026, equating to an annual gap of over £1,000.
A chart showing how regular wages are growing after taking account of inflation. The first few months of the period starting September 2023 showed relatively slow growth, but there was consistent growth between February 2024 and September 2024, meaning wages grew by 2.4% over the year. This latter period is in contrast to the period starting September 2024, where growth has hovered around zero. Between September 2023 and August 2024, wages grew 2.1%, but in the same period a year later, they grew just 0.2%.
A chart showing how regular wages are growing before taking account of inflation. Between Sept and March, the series starting in Sept 2023 and in Sept 2024 show very similar profile growing around 2% over those six months. In the next four months, the 2024-25 series grew more slowly, such that there was around a 1 percentage point gap in nominal growth by July, with the nominal wage growth between Sept 2023 and July 2024 being around 5% but between Sept 2024 and July 2025 being around 4%.
A chart showing how regular wages are growing after taking account of inflation. The first few months of the period starting September 2023 showed relatively slow growth, but there was consistent growth between February 2024 and September 2024, meaning wages grew by 2.4% over the year. This latter period is in contrast to the period starting September 2024, where growth has hovered around zero. Between September 2023 and July 2024, wages grew 2.1%, but in the same period a year later, they grew just 0.1%.
A chart showing how regular wages are growing after taking account of inflation. The first few months of the period starting September 2023 showed relatively slow growth, but there was consistent growth between February 2024 and September 2024, meaning wages grew by 2.4% over the year. This latter period is in contrast to the period starting September 2024, where growth has hovered around zero. Between September 2023 and June 2024, wages grew 1.9%, but in the same period a year later, they grew just 0.2%.
A chart comparing whole economy and private sector regular annual wage growth to CPI and CPIH inflation from September 2024 to December 2025, with the second half of 2025 being based on forecast data. Between December 2024 and December 2025 wage growth is falling, while from September 2024 to September 2025, inflation is rising, such that forecasts for annual private sector wage growth no longer exceeds forecast CPIH by around September 2025 and no longer exceeds forecast CPI by around December 2025.
A chart showing how regular wages are growing after taking account of inflation. The first few months of the period starting September 2023 showed relatively slow growth, but there was consistent growth between February 2024 and September 2024, meaning wages grew by 2.4% over the year. This latter period is in contrast to the period starting September 2024, where growth has hovered around zero. Between September 2023 and May 2024, wages grew 1.8%, but in the same period a year later, they grew just 0.3%.
A chart showing the proportion of pensioners falling below the Minimum Income Standard. This was around 13% in the period 2008-11 (around 1 in 8 pensioners), rising to 19% by 2017/18 (close to 1 in 5 pensioners), before falling back to 15% in 2020/21 (around 1 in 6 pensioners). The proportion of pensioners below the standard rose dramatically between then and 2022/23, currently standing at 24% (close to 1 in 4 pensioners).
Quote card saying "Disabled people who are able to work already find it much more difficult to find suitable work that accommodates their needs. Today’s falling number of vacancies is just another complicating factor that exposes the need to rethink the government’s fundamentally unworkable plans to cut disability benefits. The Government's increase in employment support is expected to help, at most, 95,000 disabled people into work covering just 3% of people at risk of having their disability benefits cut. This employment support is desperately needed to remove the barriers disabled people face as are reforms to boost the quality of jobs through the Employment Rights Bill. But even the best support is undermined by the harsh extent of impending cuts. The threat of widespread hardship among disabled people, unable to replace the incomes they lose out on through work, is even starker."
Stacked bar chart showing that the vast majority of the forecast increase in caseload and expenditure on PIP is from recipients in receipt of both elements (80% of caseload growth, 89% of spend growth) or one at the enhanced rate (increases to 84% of caseload growth, 92% of spend growth).
Horizontal bar charts showing cuts of at least £1.5bn (2025/26 prices) since 2010. The first three are changes in how benefit uprating. The remainder including changes to Universal Credit (including the introduction of the 2-child limit) and removing the Winter Fuel Payments from pensioners not in receipt of Pension Credit.
Snip of headline at https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/one-million-britons-disability-benefits-cut-s5kj0z7fcm, saying "1m people to have disability benefits cut by Labour. Rachel Reeves vows to ‘get a grip’ on the burgeoning welfare bill but cabinet ministers express disquiet over £5 billion savings"
Chart showing cumulative rise in sickness benefit recipients between February 2020 and August 2024. Universal Credit sickness benefit recipient numbers rose from 330k to 1.6m, Employment and Support Allowance numbers fell from 1.6m to 1.2m, leading to a rise from 1.9m to 2.7m.
Chart comparing the value of Universal Credit's standard allowance (and equivalents) to average earnings. The standard allowance was around a third of average earnings in the mid 1960s. It's now less than 15%.