Stephen Wild

@stephenjwild.bsky.social

3878 Followers 1111 Following

I try to put straight lines through things but usually fail. Try to be Bayesian when I can. Views my own. RT/like != endorsement.

Champlain's Dream, by David Hackett Fischer
Two panel comic of Grandpa Simpson. Panel 1, Grandapa Sumpson is angry. He has risen to speak at a town meeting. Text: "The metric system is the tool of the devil!" Panel 2, he continues to speak. Text: "My car gets 40 rods to the hogshead, and that's the ways I like it!"
In 1961, the RCAF obtained 66 McDonnell CF-101 Voodoo aircraft, one of the American designs the RCAF originally rejected,[115][Note 3] to serve in the role originally intended for the Avro Arrow. The controversy surrounding this acquisition, and Canada's acquiring nuclear weapons for the Voodoos and Bomarcs, contributed to the collapse of the Diefenbaker government in 1963.
Bruce Willis is Die Hard With A Vengeance. It is clearly a superhero movie. Nothing kills Maclean, he surfs on a truck, survives a fall that would kill a mere mortal. He ends up injured, and yet still defeats the villain.
Mr. Burns is trying to give Lisa slurry
Homer Simpson talking to Lisa. He says, "In this house, actors are rational!"
Poster for Stop! OR My Mom Will Shoot. It shows Stallone holding a gun and his mom, played by Estelle Getty, pointing a gun at the viewer
Headline from the Wall Street Journal: Messi is not a Miracle. He's Messi.
Cover page of Crucible of War: The Seven Years' War and the Fate of Empire in British North America, 1754–1766
Along the Ohio Country, Washington and Gist meet Mingo warriors led by Haudenosaunee leader "Half-King" Tanacharison. Gist saves Washington's life when he pulls him from the freezing Allegheny River after they have fallen off a makeshift raft. They deliver the message to Joseph Jumonville, who refuses to leave. Since the French have refused to leave, Dinwiddie promotes Washington as major to lead the Virginia Regiment, where they are joined by Tanacharison's warriors. Tanacharison seeks vengeance against the French for his father's murder. Despite George's warnings, Tanacharison and his warriors attack the French, and during the battle, Jumonville is killed.
A dilbert comic. Pointy-haired boss (PHB): "Dilbert, do you have a minute? The company is doing a survey of employee attitudes about their bosses. It's totally anonymous. So you don't have to fear any retribution. Oops! It looks like your questionnaire.l is a bit dog-ear3d. I'll put my phone number on the confidential envelope in the you need me. You can use this green marker pen. Oh, and I took the liberty of checking off your ethnic background as Eskimo. It's just a statistical thing." PHB leaves. Dilbert looks at the survey. Question 1: "Does your boss clearly communicate your objectives?"
Tweet by Piers Morgan. It shows an image of Daniel Craig carrying a baby in a baby carrier strapped to his chest. Piers Morgan says that 007 has been emasculated. Piers is wrong.
An image showing an increase in papers using difference-in-differences. It shows that 20% - 30% of published papers in some sress use DiD
Let’s start with the intervention. If we are being dogmatic evidence-based practitioners, the intervention in any physical therapy trial is the invitation to have therapy. According to the intention-to-treat principle, the invitation is the only thing that can be randomized. We can’t look only at the people who comply with every instruction and make it to the end of the rigorous therapy regimen. The model patients who diligently comply might differ from those who don’t, and our statistical signal will be biased if we include only the former. The only way to avoid these selection biases is to count everyone who was randomized, regardless of what happens between randomization and the final assessment. Both committed patients and no-shows contribute to the measured average efficacy.¹
Harrison Ford in Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny. Indy is old in this movie. Harrison Ford, the actor who plays him, was 80 when the movie was filmed.
An image from Jurassic Park for NES. It is a top-down shooter, Alan Grant is in the middle of the screen. You can see his hat. He is carrying some sort of weapon. There are trees and dinosaurs around him. A giant door is to Grant's left. In the movie, it is the door that allows entrance to the park.
A Turkish man in Olympic shooting. He is dressed in a shirt. He has one hand in his pocket while holding a gun with the other. He is wearing glasses.
Screenshot from YouTube. It says, "Stay in the fight: The 6 mobility tests every tactical athlete should pass."
Dr. Ian Malcolm: If I may... Um, I'll tell you the problem with the scientific power that you're using here, it didn't require any discipline to attain it. You read what others had done and you took the next step. You didn't earn the knowledge for yourselves, so you don't take any responsibility for it. You stood on the shoulders of geniuses to accomplish something as fast as you could, and before you even knew what you had, you patented it, and packaged it, and slapped it on a plastic lunchbox, and now [bangs on the table] Dr. Ian Malcolm: you're selling it, you wanna sell it. Well...
Scree shot of Homer Simpsons' pay stub. It shows $5.00 for the "Bear Patrol Tax"
Tom Skerrit from A River Runs Through It. He is dressed is a dress shirt, a vest, and dress pants he is wearing a fedora. He is fishing.
It’s called AI 2040 because in it, they delay the creation of superintelligence to 2040. It would have happened much sooner (in 2030, to be precise) if not for decisive action on the part of the US and Chinese governments.
REVIEW Moana live-action remake is just more slop from the trough A lifeless and pointless rehash of beautiful source material that Disney seems desperate to strip-mine until even its memory is nothing more than the skeletal remains of something once vibrant and alive. In other words: Moana is Disney's newest live-action adaptation.
Meme of Mr. Rogers. He is drawing with crayons. Text, panel 1: "Do you like to draw with crayons?" Text, panel 2: "I'm not very good at it." Text, panel 3: "But it doesn't matter." Text, panel 4: "It's the fun of doing it that's important."
Screenshoy of text: Here, the power of nutritionist thinking meets with the quantitative logic of elite sports nutrition, which has infiltrated everyday eating habits. The Creme Egg flavour soft core protein bar that crept into our feeds ahead of Easter exemplifies this trend.
Screenahot of text: Illinois Institute of Technology admissions has an acceptance rate of 55% and an early acceptance rate of 73.3%.
Cover image for Contested Continent: The Struggle for North America, c. 1000 - 1680
A four-panel meme from Futurama. Panel 1: Ethan "bubblegum" Tate is speaking. He says, "I've never seen such confident, powerful modelling with a jetpack" Panel 2: Tate continues, "send someone straight to the hospital." Panel 3: Martha Stewart's head says, "You've never seen mine." Panel 4: Tate responds, obviously turned on by Stewart, "No, I haven't."
Mr Burns with a mustache. He says his name is Mr Snrub, and we should invest the money in the nuclear plant
A bunch of posts going "OMG"
The neoreactionarv view is that the United States should have bided 1ts t1me and let Hitler and Stalin battle each other to the death or at least to a stalemate. 'Then it would have beer tar easier tor America to come in and finish them both off. Al. ternatively, we could have tinished oft Hitler aT 2 later date 1n which case the outcome would still have been A ll1ed victory an albeit with a tar weaker Stalin A weaker Stalir might have meant a tree north Korea, ditterent outcomes in Maoist China or even a non-Maoist China, saving 45 million Chinese in the process), and freedom for the Soviet satellite countries like Czechoslovakia and Hungary.
In the fall, I am planning an unhinged new class on forecasting, the tools we use to do it, and why we’re so obsessed with it. That should be a fun one.
Ranch condiment and dressing. Who calls ranch a condiment?
Orange creamsicle liqueur
The Shrug patron saint: Matt Levine AI is a thing that exists and you regard it with detached amusement, like everything else. It's overhyped, sure, but so is most stuff. You'll use it when it's useful and ignore it when it isn't, and you find the discourse more interesting than the technology. You are unbothered.
Yes, Attia and others over sold the mechanisms and the precision
Why? Because of sciencyness
Can't I just bet that all the fans will have a fun time?
Event study plot from the paper. It looks like there is a trend in the pre-treatment period.
Screenshot of text: Fibrefest Demonstrations and vendors related to fibre goods and textiles. VARIOUS LOCATIONS
A sun hat. I think this style is called a Panama hat.
Two men shaking hands (it is from the movie Predator). It shows both Australia and Canada agreeing on making fun of the US and Europe
A meme featuring a penguin, an elephant, and weird penguin-elephant hybrid in Noah's Ark. The elephant is labeled "America," the penguin is labeled as "Europe," and the weird hybrid as "Canada." Noah gestures at the hy rid and says, "What the hell is this?"
The systematic review protocol was preregistered in PROSPERO (CRD: CRD420261283693) prior to initiation of the systematic review process (20th January 2026).
Screenshot from the Simpsons. Kent Brockman is reading the news. He says, "Authorities say the phony Pope can be recognized by his high-top sneakers and incredibly foul mouth."
Mr Burns is talking to Smithers. "Since the beginning of time man has yearned to destroy the sun."
I am Joe Biden
Picture of an archerfish. They shoot jets of water at their prey
A sharp regression discontinuity design was used to evaluate the impact of the Act on social media use. Differences in outcomes at each side of the age threshold were estimated using local linear regression with triangular kernel function. Results Follow-up data were available from 408 of the 436 adolescents recruited at baseline.
Four panel comic. Panel 1: Superintendent Chalmers says, "You know, these hamburgers are quite similar" Panel 2: Chalmers continues, "to the ones they have at Krusty Burger." Panel 3: Principal Skinner says, "Oh, no." Panel 4: Skinner continues, "Patented Skinner Burgers, old family recipe."
Marge Simpson on the NYC subway. She sees a sign that says, "Laser wart removal." Marge exclaims, "Wow. The future is here."
Correlation of signature size and NPI substance. Highest correlation is .4 in one subscale
Correlation tables for signature size and outcomes. All correlations are below .1 in magnitude. It is not useful for diagnosing narcissism
Jamie McBride headphones from IMDB. He is a shaved head and goatee
Thinking Clearly with Data: A Guide to Quantitative Reasoning and Analysis Ethan Bueno de Mesquita and Anthony Fowler
A First Course in Causal Inference Peng Ding
A photo of a book cover. It features some magnifying glasses, test tubes, and other items. Observation and Experiment: An Introduction to Causal Inference Paul R. Rosenbaum
Plot showing the discontinuity. It looks like their might be an effect t for the first 6 months, which drives the discontinuity and the slop. But it just doesn't look right.
There is a month of birth effect on diabetes.
A meme from Mad Men. Someone (The Atlantic provinces) says "I feel bad for you." Don Draper (the rest of Canada) says, "I don't think about you at all."