Stephen Semler

@stephensemler.bsky.social

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Policy analyst/advisor. Newsletter: stephensemler.com

Trump’s $88 billion spending request. $72 billion is for Iran War costs. Agency – description – requested amount in billions of dollars: Pentagon – Munitions, operations, other costs – 67; DHS – Coast Guard support for Operation Epic Fury – 2; State – Embassy fortification, civilian evacuations – 2; Energy – nuclear materials disposal – .768; FBI – Activities related to Operation Epic Fury – .040; Treasury – Office of Terrorism and Financial Assistance – .036. Subtotal, war costs: 72. Agriculture – Additional crops subsidies – 11; Labor – Restore certain Delphi pensions – 1; Transportation – Renovations to Penn Station – 1; State – Humanitarian aid to Central Africa – 0.890; GSA – Renovations to federal buildings – .600; State – Ebola outbreak response – .550; Interior – Renovations to national monuments – .500. Subtotal, non-war costs: 16. Total: 87.6. Source: Office of Management and Budget, FY2026 Supplemental, June 24, 2026.
Iran War: Most unpopular US war in history. The image shows the trajectories in popularity of the last seven U.S. wars. Here is each war with its starting and latest net support: World War II, 95%, 62%; Korea, 45%, 14%; Vietnam, 37%, –31%; Gulf, 57%, 21%; Afghanistan, 80%, –1%; Iraq, 52%, –14%; Iran, –13%, –30%. Iran War data is through 79 days. Data: Gallup (Dec 1941–Apr 1946; Aug 1950–Jan 1953; Aug 1965–Jan 1973; Jan 1991–Jan 1992; Nov 2001–Jul 2021; Mar 2003–Aug 2010); Economist/YouGov (Mar–Jun 2026).
Wired headline, July 15 2026: Intel officials predict the pentagon’s bill for the Iran war will exceed $100 billion
Israeli settler with American made M4 assault rifle and suppressor
NAYs Banks (R-IN Barrasso (R-WY Bennet (D-CO Blackburn (R-TN Blumenthal (D-CT Booker (D-NJ Boozman (R-AR Britt (R-AL Budd (R-NC Cantwell (D-WA) Capito (R-WV) Cassidy (R-LA) Collins (R-ME) Coons (D-DE) Cornyn (R-TX) Cortez Masto (D-NV) Cotton (R-AR) Cramer (R-ND) Crapo (R-ID) Cruz (R-TX) Curtis (R-UT) Daines (R-MT) Ernst (R-IA) Fetterman (D-PA) Fischer (R-NE) Gillibrand (D-NY Graham (R-SC Grassley (R-IA Hagerty (R-TN Hassan (D-NH Hawley (R-MO) Hickenlooper (D-CO) Hoeven (R-ND) Husted (R-OH) Hyde-Smith (R-MS) Johnson (R-WI) Justice (R-WV Kennedy (R-LA Lankford (R-OK Lee (R-UT Lummis (R-WY Marshall (R-KS) McConnell (R-KY) McCormick (R-PA) Moody (R-FL) Moran (R-KS) Moreno (R-OH Mullin (R-OK Murkowski (R-AK Padilla (D-CA Paul (R-KY Peters (D-MI Ricketts (R-NE Risch (R-ID) Rosen (D-NV) Rounds (R-SD) Schiff (D-CA) Schmitt (R-MO) Schumer (D-NY) Scott (R-FL) Scott (R-SC) Sheehy (R-MT) Sullivan (R-AK) Thune (R-SD Tillis (R-NC Tuberville (R-AL Warner (D-VA Wicker Wyden Young
US spent $103 billion first 120 days of Iran War. Estimated US war costs, February 28 to June 27, 2026. Operations (mobilization, administration, combat), $28.5B; Weapons (missiles, interceptors, bombs, other), $46.7B; Losses (damaged or destroyed military assets), $20.3B; Subsidies (paying for Israel's bombs, interceptors), $2.9B; Other (war costs to nonmilitary US agencies), $4.8B. Total cost of the first 120 days of the Iran War: $103.3B. Direct war cost estimates based on author's analysis of procurement and O&S data, open-source intelligence, officials' statements, media reports. Figures subject to revision as new information becomes available. Chart and analysis by Stephen Semler.
May 6, 2026 headline: The real cost of the Iran War: $72 billion for the first 60 days. June 18, 2026 headline: Pentagon tells lawmakers it needs $80 billion for Iran War and other bills.
Iran War: Most unpopular US war in history. The image shows the trajectories in popularity of the last seven U.S. wars. Here is each war with its starting and latest net support: World War II, 95%, 62%; Korea, 45%, 14%; Vietnam, 37%, –31%; Gulf, 57%, 21%; Afghanistan, 80%, –1%; Iraq, 52%, –14%; Iran, –13%, –30%. Iran War data is through 79 days. Data: Gallup (Dec 1941–Apr 1946; Aug 1950–Jan 1953; Aug 1965–Jan 1973; Jan 1991–Jan 1992; Nov 2001–Jul 2021; Mar 2003–Aug 2010); Economist/YouGov (Mar–Jun 2026).
Iran War: No US war began or ended with less public support. The image shows two column charts stacked on top of each other. This chart shows two column graphs stacked on top of one another: the first shows the starting net support for the last seven U.S. wars; the bottom chart shows the ending (or in the Iran War’s case, latest net support) during each war. Here is each war with its starting and ending (or latest) net support: World War II, 95%, 62%; Korea, 45%, 14%; Vietnam, 37%, –31%; Gulf, 57%, 21%; Afghanistan, 80%, –1%; Iraq, 52%, –14%; Iran, –13%, –32%. Iran War data is through 79 days. Polling data: Gallup (Dec 1941–Apr 1946; Aug 1950–Jan 1953; Aug 1965–Jan 1973; Jan 1991–Jan 1992; Nov 2001–Jul 2021; Mar 2003–Aug 2010); Economist/YouGov (Mar–Jun 2026).
The real cost of the Iran War: $72 billion for the first 60 days Popular Information crunches the numbers. The official accounting is at least $47 billion too low. STEPHEN SEMLER MAY 06, 2026
Ed Markey tweet criticizing ceasefire deal, saying Congress should reject it.
SEC. 1217. UNITED STATES-ISRAEL FRAMEWORK FOR UP- GRADED TECHNOLOGIES, UNIFIED RESEARCH, AND ENHANCED SECURITY (FUTURES) ACT OF 2026. (a) ESTABLISHMENT OF THE UNITED STATES- ISRAEL DEFENSE TECHNOLOGY COOPERATION INITIA- TIVE.- (1) ESTABLISHMENT.—The Secretary of De-fense, in consultation with the Minister of Defense of Israel, shall establish a cooperative initiative, to be known as the "United States-Israel Defense Technology Cooperation Initiative", to expand and accelerate bilateral defense technology research, de-velopment, testing, evaluation, coordination, and industrial cooperation by—
Nearly 1 in 4 US renters fell behind on rent in 2025. Share behind on rent in the past 12 months, by income. All incomes: 2019, 10%; 2021, 17%; 2022, 17%; 2023, 19%; 2024, 21%; 2025, 23%. Incomes under $50,000: 2019, 12%; 2021, 23%; 2022, 23%; 2023, 27%; 2024, 28%; 2025, 32%. Incomes from $50,000 to $100,000: 2019, 6%; 2021, 9%; 2022, 8%; 2023, 14%; 2024, 16%; 2025, 17%. Incomes over $100,000: 2019, 2%; 2021, 2%; 2022, 2%; 2023, 2%; 2024, 6%; 2025, 5%. Data: Federal Reserve Board, Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking (SHED). Data and analysis by Stephen Semler.
Rent has increased 37% since 2019. Average US monthly rent: 2019, $1,383; 2020, $1,419; 2021, $1,540; 2022, $1,727; 2023, $1,798; 2024, $1,850; 2025, $1,898. Data: Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI). Chart and analysis by Stephen Semler.
Nearly 1 in 4 US renters fell behind on rent in 2025. Share behind on rent in the past 12 months, by income. All incomes: 2019, 10%; 2021, 17%; 2022, 17%; 2023, 19%; 2024, 21%; 2025, 23%. Incomes under $50,000: 2019, 12%; 2021, 23%; 2022, 23%; 2023, 27%; 2024, 28%; 2025, 32%. Incomes from $50,000 to $100,000: 2019, 6%; 2021, 9%; 2022, 8%; 2023, 14%; 2024, 16%; 2025, 17%. Incomes over $100,000: 2019, 2%; 2021, 2%; 2022, 2%; 2023, 2%; 2024, 6%; 2025, 5%. Data: Federal Reserve Board, Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking (SHED). Analysis by Stephen Semler.
Iran War is first U.S. war the public never supported. The image shows two column charts stacked on top of each other. The top chart shows the starting net support for the last seven U.S. wars; the bottom chart shows the latest net support during each war. Here is each war with its starting and latest net support: World War II, 95%, 62%; Korea, 45%, 14%; Vietnam, 37%, –31%; Gulf, 57%, 21%; Afghanistan, 80%, –1%; Iraq, 52%, –14%; Iran, –13%, –30%. Iran War data is through 79 days. Polling data: Gallup (Dec 1941–Apr 1946; Aug 1950–Jan 1953; Aug 1965–Jan 1973; Jan 1991–Jan 1992; Nov 2001–Jul 2021; Mar 2003–Aug 2010); Economist/YouGov (Mar–May 2026).
Iran War is first U.S. war the public never supported. The image shows the trajectories in popularity of the last seven U.S. wars. Here is each war with its starting and latest net support: World War II, 95%, 62%; Korea, 45%, 14%; Vietnam, 37%, –31%; Gulf, 57%, 21%; Afghanistan, 80%, –1%; Iraq, 52%, –14%; Iran, –13%, –30%. Iran War data is through 79 days. Data: Gallup (Dec 1941–Apr 1946; Aug 1950–Jan 1953; Aug 1965–Jan 1973; Jan 1991–Jan 1992; Nov 2001–Jul 2021; Mar 2003–Aug 2010); Economist/YouGov (Mar–May 2026). Chart and analysis by Stephen Semler.
U.S. credit card debt is historically high. Orange line chart starts at roughly $700 billion in 2003 and ends with $1.25 trillion in the first quarter of 2026, with peaks of approximately $850 billion and $875 billion in 2008 and 2019, and troughs of approximately $675 billion from in 2013 and $800 billion in 2021. Figures: 2003:Q1-2026:Q1, current dollars. Data: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, May 2026. Chart and analysis by Stephen Semler.
Credit card debt is historically expensive. This purple line chart shows credit card APR (annual percentage rate) starting at 12.7% in 2003 and ending at 21.5% in the first quarter of 2026, fueled by a rapid increase after 2021. Since 2023, credit card APR has hovered around 22%. Figures: 2003:Q1-2026:Q1, current dollars. Data: Federal Reserve, Commercial Bank Interest Rate on Credit Card Plans, Accounts Assessed Interest.
U.S. credit card debt is historically high. Orange line chart starts at roughly $700 billion in 2003 and ends with $1.25 trillion in the first quarter of 2026, with peaks of approximately $850 billion and $875 billion in 2008 and 2019, and troughs of approximately $675 billion from in 2013 and $800 billion in 2021. Figures: 2003:Q1-2026:Q1, current dollars. Data: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, May 2026. Chart and analysis by Stephen Semler.
U.S. spent $72 billion in first 60 days of Iran War. Estimated U.S. war costs, 28 February through 28 April 2026. Column headers are as follows: Expense; Description; Cost. Rows are as follows: Operations; Mobilization, administration, combat; $15.8 billion. Weapons; Missiles, interceptors, bombs, other; $41.2 billion. Losses; Damaged or destroyed military assets; $11.9 billion. Subsidies; Paying for Israel’s bombs, interceptors; $2.9 billion. Total; Cost of the first 60 days of the Iran War; $71.8 billion. Estimated direct costs based on author's analysis of officials' statements, procurement and O&S data, open-source intelligence, media reports. Figures subject to revision as new information becomes available. Chart and analysis by Stephen Semler.
U.S. spent $72 billion in first 60 days of Iran War. Estimated U.S. war costs, 28 February through 28 April 2026. Column headers are as follows: Expense; Description; Cost. Rows are as follows: Operations; Mobilization, administration, combat; $15.8 billion. Weapons; Missiles, interceptors, bombs, other; $41.2 billion. Losses; Damaged or destroyed military assets; $11.9 billion. Subsidies; Paying for Israel’s bombs, interceptors; $2.9 billion. Total; Cost of the first 60 days of the Iran War; $71.8 billion. Estimated direct costs based on author's analysis of officials' statements, procurement and O&S data, open-source intelligence, media reports. Figures subject to revision as new information becomes available. Chart and analysis by Stephen Semler.
But his proposed military spending will increase the deficit, the same deficit he's using to pay for the Iran War. Trump and congressional Republicans have no plans to offset war costs with a corresponding tax increase: "War is never paid for when you fight it, it's paid for over time," House Appropriations Committee Chair Tom Cole (R-OK) said last month. "We didn't pay for World War II or Korea or World War I...so I don't think it should be offset." Cole is either lying or ignorant. Taxes were levied in 1914, 1916, 1917, and 1919 to fund WWI; in 1940, 1941, 1942, and 1944 for WWII; and in 1950 and 1951 for the Korean War). The US only stopped taxing war post-9/11.
What $1.5 trillion for the Pentagon could fund instead. This column chart compares the $1.504 trillion requested military budget for 2027 against a set of alternatives. In billions: 93, End world hunger; 318, End global extreme poverty; 29, End US homelessness; 214, Medicaid for uninsured; 35, Universal US pre-K; 141, Send $600 checks to 235M Americans; 596 , Power half of US households with solar. Proposed and estimated costs are annual, except solar (overnight capital cost) and $600 checks (matching cost of January 2021 relief payments). Data: President’s Budget for fiscal year 2027, author analysis.
US budgets less for improving lives, more for ending them. Discretionary spending by function, constant 2026 dollars. This chart shows war spending increasing steadily since 2017 and shows public investment spending peaking in 2020 before steadily falling ever since. Trump’s 2027 budget includes $1.5 trillion in war spending and only $432.3 billion in public investment. Amounts reflect discretionary funding plus supplemental discretionary funding via reconciliation. Budget function 050 in war category; others minus 700, 750 in public investment. Data: Office of Management and Budget, Congressional Research Service.
US budgets less for improving lives, more for ending them. Discretionary spending by function, constant 2026 dollars. This chart shows war spending increasing steadily since 2017 and shows public investment spending peaking in 2020 before steadily falling ever since. Trump’s 2027 budget includes $1.5 trillion in war spending and only $432.3 billion in public investment. Amounts reflect discretionary funding plus supplemental discretionary funding via reconciliation. Budget function 050 in war category; others minus 700, 750 in public investment. Data: Office of Management and Budget, Congressional Research Service.
Murphy: This is an account close to the Iranian leadership. We are now seeing the shape of why Iran agreed so enthusiastically to this "ceasefire". They will control and toll the Strait for the first time. They keep their nuclear program. They keep their missiles. What a disaster.
Big Beautiful Bill will leave most households worse off. Projected financial gain or loss, by income group. Bottom quintile, –$24K; 2nd quintile, –$10K; 3rd, –$2K; 4th, +$13K; top, +$50K. Figures show average equivalent variation, the amount a household would need to gain or lose under current policy to be as well off as under the new policy. Data: Penn Wharton Budget Model, July 2025.
US spends $2.1 billion a day on the Iran War. Estimated US war costs, 28 February–13 March 2026. Table format: Expense; Description; Cost. Rows: Operations; Mobilization, administration, combat; $4.25 billion. Weapons; Missiles, interceptors, bombs, other; $20.77 billion. Losses; Damaged or destroyed military assets; $2.71 billion. Subsidies; Pay for Israel’s bombs, interceptors; $1.01 billion. Total; Cost of the first two weeks of the Iran War; $28.74 billion. Average cost per day: $2.05 billion. Estimated direct costs based on author’s analysis of officials’ statements, procurement and O&S data, open-source intelligence, media reports. Figures subject to revision as new information becomes available.
Trump wants to spend $1.5 trillion on the military, $260 billion more than at World War Two’s peak. US military spending, constant 2026 dollars. Line graph shows Trump’s 2027 proposal towering above the height of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, Cold War high, and World War II high. Fiscal year 2027 proposal: $1.504 trillion (050 base discretionary + mandatory supplementing base funding). Data: OMB, DOW.
US spends $2.1 billion a day on the Iran War. Estimated US war costs, 28 February–13 March 2026. Table format: Expense; Description; Cost. Rows: Operations; Mobilization, administration, combat; $4.25 billion. Weapons; Missiles, interceptors, bombs, other; $20.77 billion. Losses; Damaged or destroyed military assets; $2.71 billion. Subsidies; Pay for Israel’s bombs, interceptors; $1.01 billion. Total; Cost of the first two weeks of the Iran War; $28.74 billion. Average cost per day: $2.05 billion. Estimated direct costs based on author’s analysis of officials’ statements, procurement and O&S data, open-source intelligence, media reports. Figures subject to revision as new information becomes available.
Food insecurity has grown by nearly a third since 2019. Americans living in food insecure households, %: 2019, 10.9%; 2020, 11.8%; 2021, 10.4%; 2022, 13.5%; 2023, 14.3%; 2024, 14.4%. Data: United States Department of Agriculture, December 2025.
Ending Pandemic Aid Led to a Broad Surge in Insecurity. Chart shows dramatic increases in economic insecurity since 2021.
Food insecurity has grown by nearly a third since 2019. Americans living in food insecure households, %: 2019, 10.9%; 2020, 11.8%; 2021, 10.4%; 2022, 13.5%; 2023, 14.3%; 2024, 14.4%. Data: United States Department of Agriculture, December 2025.
On Wednesday, House and Senate Minority Leaders Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) and Chuck Schumer (D-NY) proposed ten reforms for ICE, which you can read here. None of them involve reducing ICE funding. The question isn’t whether these proposed reforms are any good. The question is whether they’re worth $11 billion. Why? Because there’s $11 billion for ICE in the pending 2026 DHS bill, and agreeing to the reforms unlocks the Democratic votes needed to pass it. If you’re ICE, it’s an easy choice: take the money. First let Jeffries and Schumer concede some of their ten demands, then ignore the rest once the DHS bill passes. You’ll eventually get a strongly worded letter from Jeffries and Schumer for disregarding the agreed-upon reforms, but it’s not like your livelihood (budget) will be in danger. If Democratic leaders won’t try to cut ICE’s funding after it murders several people, they’re not going to block funding over masks and military apparel.
ICE funding exceeds the military budgets of all but 15 countries. This table ranks the proposed $30 billion ICE budget for 2026 among the largest military budgets worldwide. It has 3 columns — ranking, military or agency, and funding — and 40 rows, 39 of which are country military budgets and 1 is the ICE budget. ICE is ranked 16th, larger than the military budgets of countries including Canada, Spain, Brazil, Mexico, Sweden, Iran, and Switzerland. The ICE budget refers to the proposed 2026 discretionary spending in H.R.7147 plus average annual reconciliation funding in P.L.119-21. Military budgets are sourced from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Chart and analysis by Stephen Semler.
Biden sold $22 billion in weapons to Israel. U.S. taxpayers funded more than 80% of these sales. This estimate is based on reported Foreign Military Financing-funded Foreign Military Sales and average Foreign Military Financing-funded Direct Commercial Sales. This yellow column chart shows the value of authorized arms sales to Israel in current dollars from 2015 to 2024, with the last four years in bold. In billions of dollars: 5.4, 1.3, 4.4, 1.8, 4.3, 4.2, 4.4, 4, 2.8, 10.7. Figures refer to authorized sales in current dollars. Data: Defense Security Cooperation Agency and Directorate of Defense Trade Controls.
Biden sold $22 billion in weapons to Israel. U.S. taxpayers funded more than 80% of these sales. This estimate is based on reported Foreign Military Financing-funded Foreign Military Sales and average Foreign Military Financing-funded Direct Commercial Sales. This yellow column chart shows the value of authorized arms sales to Israel in current dollars from 2015 to 2024, with the last four years in bold. In billions of dollars: 5.4, 1.3, 4.4, 1.8, 4.3, 4.2, 4.4, 4, 2.8, 10.7. Figures refer to authorized sales in current dollars. Data: Defense Security Cooperation Agency and Directorate of Defense Trade Controls.
Tweet from Phil Gordon: Hard to overstate the damage to US-Israel relations done by the sense of entitlement and ingratitude reflected in comments like these and Netanyahu's own recent statements. Baseless misdirection to suggest that Israeli soldiers' deaths in Gaza were caused by some phantom US "embargo" (when in fact Biden resisted enormous pressure to condition aid, as required by U.S. law, even as Israel rebuffed calls to facilitate more humanitarian assistance and reduce civilian casualties), and insulting to suggest that U.S. concern for people of Gaza was driven by "Michigan," as if no other possible basis for concern comes to mind. If goal of Netanyahu and his partisans is to accelerate the sharp decline in U.S. public support for Israel, and to further undermine the bipartisan character of that support, this seems like good way to go about it.
The U.S. spends more on its military than the next 12 countries combined. U.S. military spending in 2024, $968 billion. Total military spending of the next 12 countries: $960 billion. Data: IISS, The Military Balance, 2025.
The US spends over $140 billion annually on police. This line graph shows state and local government police expenditures since 2008, culminating at $140 billion in 2022. Data: US Census Bureau (31 October 2024): 2022 Census of Governments – Finance Component.
ICE budget set to triple to $30 billion in 2026. Trump request: $11 billion, plus estimated $19 billion from reconciliation bill. The red line chart shows gradual increase in the ICE budget from 2016 to 2025, before skyrocketing to a projected $30 billion in 2026. 2026 estimate based on Trump's budget request and White House documents stating that 25% of reconciliation homeland security funding is for 2026.
Passage of Pentagon funding bill and others. Yeas, 341; Nays, 88. 192 Republicans and 149 Democrats voted Yea.
The Pentagon has had 30 years to pass an audit. It still hasn’t passed one. All other major federal agencies have received a clean audit opinion. This chart shows how many years each agency took to pass an audit. All CFO Act agencies were required by law to undergo agency-wide audits beginning in fiscal year 1996, except for the Department of Homeland Security, which was in 2005. Here is each agency and the first year each one passed an audit: Agriculture, 2002; Commerce, 1999; Pentagon, never passed an audit; Education, 1997; Energy, 1996; HHS, 1999; Homeland Security, 2013; HUD, 1998; Interior, 1997; Justice, 2001; Labor, 1997; State, 1997; Transportation, 1999; Treasury, 2000; Veterans Affairs, 1999; EPA, 1997; GSA, 1996; NASA, 1996; NSF, 1998; NRC, 1996; OPM, 2000; SBA, 1996; SSA, 1996; USAID, 2003.
The U.S has given Israel $352 billion in aid. Cumulative U.S. aid to Israel, by type. Total aid, 1951 to 2025, $352 billion; including $263 billion in military aid and $89 billion in economic aid. Figures in constant 2025 U.S. dollars. Data: ForeignAssistance.gov, Freedom of Information Act request (Data Liberation Project), CRS, DSCA, GAO, author’s analysis of legislation and reporting language. Chart and analysis by Stephen Semler.
The U.S has given Israel $352 billion in aid. Cumulative U.S. aid to Israel, by type. Total aid, 1951 to 2025, $352 billion; including $263 billion in military aid and $89 billion in economic aid. Figures in constant 2025 U.S. dollars. Data: ForeignAssistance.gov, Freedom of Information Act request (Data Liberation Project), CRS, DSCA, GAO, author’s analysis of legislation and reporting language. Chart and analysis by Stephen Semler.
The U.S has given Israel $352 billion in aid. Cumulative U.S. aid to Israel, by type. Total aid, 1951 to 2025, $352 billion; including $263 billion in military aid and $89 billion in economic aid. Figures in constant 2025 U.S. dollars. Data: ForeignAssistance.gov, Freedom of Information Act request (Data Liberation Project), CRS, DSCA, GAO, author’s analysis of legislation and reporting language. Chart and analysis by Stephen Semler.