Stephen Wolf

@stephenwolf.bsky.social

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Contributor @the-downballot.com. Elections, voting rights, redistricting, and maps.

Table titled "Median Congressional District Comparison: Democratic-minus-Republican Presidential Margin," from The Downballot. For each redistricting scenario, columns show the median district, presidential margin, and number of seats carried by the Democratic nominee out of 435 total. Calculations separately show the the 2024 and 2020 presidential results. National Popular Vote: 2024 margin -1.5 (R+1.5); 2020 margin +4.5 (D+4.5). 2022 Actual Map: median district CA-40; 2024 margin -2.3, 207 seats won; 2020 median MI-08, margin +2.0, 226 seats won. 2024 Actual Map: median AZ-01; 2024 margin -3.1, 205 seats; 2020 median VA-02, margin +1.9, 224 seats. 2026 Actual Map: median VA-01; 2024 margin -4.9, 200 seats; 2020 median AZ-06, margin +0.1, 218 seats. 2028 Potential Map, New GOP maps only: median ME-02; 2024 margin -9.1, 192 seats; 2020 median IA-01, margin -2.9, 208 seats. 2028 Potential Map, New maximalist GOP maps only: median FL-22; 2024 margin -10.3, 185 seats; 2020 median IN-01, margin -4.4, 201 seats. 2028 Potential Map, New maps from both parties: median OH-01; 2024 margin -2.6, 210 seats; 2020 median AZ-01, margin +1.5, 222 seats. 2028 Potential Map, New maps from both, maximalist GOP: median MI-10; 2024 margin -6.5, 203 seats; 2020 median MI-10, margin -1.0, 215 seats. 2028 Potential Map, New maximalist maps from both parties: median PA-07; 2024 margin -3.2, 208 seats; 2020 median MI-07, margin +0.5, 220 seats.
A cartogram from The Downballot showing the partisan intent behind 2026 congressional redistricting in every state. States retain their general shapes and relative locations on the map, but they are sized according to how many congressional seats they have and are spread out from each other accordingly. 26% of districts are in blue-colored states drawn to favor Democrats. 44% of districts are in red-colored states drawn to favor Republicans. 29% of districts are in yellow-colored states drawn by neutral parties. 1% of districts are in gray-colored states with only a single district each. Each state by seat count and favored party: Alabama: 7 - Republican Alaska: 1 - One Seat Arizona: 9 - Neutral Arkansas: 4 - Republican California: 52 - Democratic Colorado: 8 - Neutral Connecticut: 5 - Neutral Delaware: 1 - One Seat Florida: 28 - Republican Georgia: 14 - Republican Hawaii: 2 - Neutral Idaho: 2 - Neutral Illinois: 17 - Democratic Indiana: 9 - Republican Iowa: 4 - Neutral Kansas: 4 - Republican Kentucky: 6 - Republican Louisiana: 6 - Republican Maine: 2 - Neutral Maryland: 8 - Democratic Massachusetts: 9 - Democratic Michigan: 13 - Neutral Minnesota: 8 - Neutral Mississippi: 4 - Republican Missouri: 8 - Republican Montana: 2 - Neutral Nebraska: 3 - Republican Nevada: 4 - Democratic New Hampshire: 2 - Neutral New Jersey: 12 - Democratic New Mexico: 3 - Democratic New York: 26 - Neutral North Carolina: 14 - Republican North Dakota: 1 - One Seat Ohio: 15 - Republican Oklahoma: 5 - Republican Oregon: 6 - Democratic Pennsylvania: 17 - Neutral Rhode Island: 2 - Democratic South Carolina: 7 - Republican South Dakota: 1 - One Seat Tennessee: 9 - Republican Texas: 38 - Republican Utah: 4 - Neutral Vermont: 1 - One Seat Virginia: 11 - Neutral Washington: 10 - Neutral West Virginia: 2 - Republican Wisconsin: 8 - Republican Wyoming: 1 - One Seat
Map showing which states redrew their congressional maps in 2026 and how many members of each party were targeted. Republicans targeted 16 Democrats in: Alabama: 1 Florida: 4 Louisiana: 1 Missouri: 1 North Carolina: 1 Ohio: 2 Tennessee: 1 Texas: 5 11 of the targeted Democrats are Black or Latino, hold Voting Rights Act-protected districts, or both. Democrats responded to the initial Texas gerrymander by targeting 5 Republicans in California, but Virginia's Supreme Court overruled a new map that targeted 4 Republicans there. In Utah, a court replaced a Republican gerrymander with a fairer map where Democrats will likely gain one seat.
Map of the 2020 presidential election result margin by congressional district for the 2026 map. Red districts would have voted for Donald Trump and blue districts for Joe Biden. Darker shades represent larger margins in increments of 10 percentage points. Biden would have won a 218-to-217 majority of districts and carried the median district by 0.1 points, placing it 4.4 points to the right of his national margin of 4.5 points.
Map of the 2024 presidential election result margin by congressional district for the 2026 map. Red districts would have voted for Donald Trump and blue districts for Kamala Harris. Darker shades represent larger margins in increments of 10 percentage points. Trump would have won a 235-to-200 majority of districts and carried the median district by 4.9 points, placing it 3.5 points to the right of his national margin of 1.5 points after rounding.
Graphic of a proposed 8-0 Democratic Maryland congressional map passed by state House Democrats as House Bill 488. The districts are colored various shades of blue depending on the size of Kamala Harris' 2024 presidential margin of victory, with darker colors representing bigger margins. An accompanying chart includes the presidential results and each district's racial demographics for the adult population. All seven Democratic incumbents would be in districts that Harris won by at least 10.7 points, with 3rd District Democratic Rep. Sarah Elfreth likely running in the revised 1st District currently held by Republican Rep. Andy Harris. The potentially open 3rd District favored Harris by 8.6 points. The 4th and 7th districts would remain majority-Black while the open 5th District would shift from plurality-white to plurality-Black.
New York Times dialect quiz result map. The most similar is North Carolina and Virginia, with some similarity with the broader Northeastern and Southeastern United States. The least similar is the Midwest and northwest.
New York Times election results summary for the Democratic primary for Senate in Colorado. Incumbent John Hickenlooper defeated progressive challenger Julie Gonzales by just 53-47 with nearly all votes counted.
In Congress, July 4, 1776 The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen united States of America, When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation. We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.--That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, --That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should
An image of a list of the 27 grievances against King George III in the Declaration of Independence. Donald Trump's regime has committed at least 20 of them in whole or in part, condensed into the list below: 1. He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good. 2. He has refused to pass other Laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of representation … 3. He has dissolved Representative Houses repeatedly, for opposing … his invasions on the rights of the people. 4. He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; … obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners … 5. He has obstructed the Administration of Justice … 6. He has made Judges dependent on his Will alone, for the tenure of their offices … 7. He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harrass our people, and eat out their substance. 8. He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures. 9. He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil power. 10. He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution … giving his Assent to their Acts of pretended Legislation: 11. For Quartering large bodies of armed troops among us: 12. For protecting them … from punishment for any Murders which they should commit … 13. For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world: 14. For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent: 15. For depriving us … of the benefits of Trial by Jury: 16. For transporting us beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences: 17. For … abolishing our most valuable Laws, and altering fundamentally the Forms of our Governments: 18. He has abdicated Government here, by declaring us out of his Protection and waging War against us. 19. He has … destroyed the lives of our people. 20. He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us …
New York Times election results for the Democratic primary for Senate in Colorado. Incumbent John Hickenlooper defeated progressive challenger Julie Gonzales and leads by 53.6% to 46.4% with an estimated 92% of votes reported.
New York Times election results for the Democratic primary for Senate in Colorado. Incumbent John Hickenlooper defeated progressive challenger Julie Gonzales and leads 55-45 with an estimated 88% of votes reported.
New York Times election results for the Democratic primary for Senate in Colorado. Incumbent John Hickenlooper defeated progressive challenger Julie Gonzales and leads 57-43 with an estimated 77% of votes reported.
Image of Colorado Democrats’ proposed 7-1 congressional map. An embedded chart displays the 2024 presidential election results and adult racial demographics for each district. The districts are colored by the 2024 presidential election winner's margin, with Kamala Harris districts in blue and Donald Trump districts in red. The districts are shaded by margin with darker colors representing larger margins. Harris won 7 of the districts by varying margins while Trump won a single dark-red district in eastern Colorado.
Image of Colorado Democrats’ proposed 7-1 congressional map. An embedded chart displays the 2024 presidential election results and adult racial demographics for each district. The districts are colored by the 2024 presidential election winner's margin, with Kamala Harris districts in blue and Donald Trump districts in red. The districts are shaded by margin with darker colors representing larger margins. Harris won 7 of the districts by varying margins while Trump won a single dark-red district in eastern Colorado.
Introducing our New User Experience We've been working on a new modern look and streamlined workflow for Dave's Redistricting. This new version supports all the old features you are familiar with, plus it adds some new features for building and drawing maps. [Image of the website’s new dashboard page, which shows a U.S. state map and menu bars along the top and left sides of the page.] When you open DRA 2020, look for About New UI on the top bar. You can try out the new UI and switch back and forth easily; when you switch you'll stay on the same page and all your maps, datasets and layers will be there in both.
Table titled "Median Congressional District Comparison: Democratic-minus-Republican Presidential Margin," from The Down Ballot. It compares seven redistricting scenarios across two sets of columns: 2024 presidential results and 2020 presidential results. Each set shows the median district's Democratic-minus-Republican margin and the number of congressional districts won by the Democratic presidential candidate. Cells with Republican-favoring margins are shaded pink, with deeper shading for larger margins; cells with Democratic-favoring margins are shaded light blue. The national popular vote’s Democratic margin was −1.5 in 2024 and +4.5 in 2020. For each scenario, the median district margin and how many districts the Democratic presidential nominee won are as follows: 2024 actual map: −3.1 margin; 205 districts won in 2024 / +1.9 margin; 224 districts won in 20202026 actual map: −4.9 margin; 200 districts won in 2024 / +0.1 margin; 218 districts won in 20202028 new GOP maps only: −9.1 margin; 192 districts won in 2024 / −2.9 margin; 208 districts won in 20202028 maximalist GOP maps only: −10.5 margin; 185 districts won in 2024 / −4.4 margin; 201 districts won in 20202028 new maps from both parties: −1.8 margin; 213 districts won in 2024 / +2.9 margin; 224 districts won in 20202028 new maps from both, maximalist GOP: −5.2 margin; 206 districts won in 2024 / −0.2 margin; 217 districts won in 20202028 new maximalist maps from both parties: −2.6 margin; 211 districts won in 2024 / +1.5 margin; 222 districts won in 2020
It is possible that the enthusiasts will be vindicated, and Republicans will win every “safe” seat they have created, but there are good reasons to be skeptical of the claim that the recent aggressive gerrymanders will reduce the number of competitive districts in 2026. In fact, in the 6 states conducting mid-decade redistricting, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee targeted only 3 seats in 2024 but is now targeting 13. The aspiration of aggressive gerrymandering is to eliminate competitive districts, but this can be difficult to achieve in practice. Despite intense polarization, vote choice and turnout are still volatile in some slices of the electorate, and large swings are still possible. Past statewide results are sometimes surprisingly poor predictors of outcomes in congressional races.
Image comparing Alabama's court-drawn 2024 congressional map with Republicans' new 6-1 congressional gerrymander that would eliminate one of the two Black Democrats to elect another Republican in a majority-white district. The 2024 map is on the left and the GOP's new map is on the right, with charts in between them showing the 2024 presidential election results and racial demographics for each district. The districts are colored by the presidential winner's margin, with Kamala Harris seats in blue and Donald Trump districts in red. The 2024 map grouped Black voters in Birmingham and the western Black Belt in the 7th District and placed Black voters in Mobile, Montgomery, and Mobile into the 2nd District. Both districts are predominantly Black and voted for Harris by comfortable margins, while Trump won five solidly red seats. The new map removes Mobile from the 2nd District and adds other areas to make it majority-white and safely Republican.
Map showing which states have redrawn their congressional maps in 2026 and how many members of each party were targeted. Republicans have targeted 16 Democrats in: Alabama: 1 Florida: 4 Louisiana: 1 Missouri: 1 North Carolina: 1 Ohio: 2 Tennessee: 1 Texas: 5 11 of the targeted Democrats are Black or Latino, hold Voting Rights Act-protected districts, or both. Democrats responded to the initial Texas gerrymander by targeting 5 Republicans in California, but Virginia's Supreme Court overruled a new map that targeted 4 Republicans there. In Utah, a court replaced a Republican gerrymander with a fairer map where Democrats will likely gain one seat.
Image of Alabama Republicans' proposed 6-1 congressional gerrymander that would eliminate one of the two Black Democrats to elect another Republican in a majority-white district. A chart on the left shows the 2024 presidential election results and racial demographics in each district. The map on the center-left shows the presidential margin by district, with Donald Trump easily carrying six seats in red and Kamala Harris winning just one solidly blue seat. The map on the right overlays the district lines on a map of the Black adult population by precinct. The new lines pack Black voters in Birmingham and the western half of the Black Belt into the 7th District while cracking voters in Montgomery and the eastern half of the Black Belt by putting them in a redrawn 2nd District that is majority-white.
Map of Georgia’s five districts for its Public Service Commission, which regulates utilities. All five seats are elected statewide, but commissioners must live in their district. Republicans gerrymandered the map with one majority-Black and heavily Democratic district that contains Atlanta and its inner suburbs. Three other districts crack the remaining Atlanta suburbs by combining them with heavily white Republican rural areas, and the last district covers most of South Georgia but excludes the large Black Democratic population in the coastal city of Savannah. Donald Trump won a majority of three districts by at least 15 points in 2024 and a fourth by 6 points. Kamala Harris won the Atlanta district by 55 points.
Image of a hypothetical Wisconsin congressional map drawn to create fair and competitive districts ALLot replace the Republican-favoring gerrymander. The districts are shaded by the 2024 presidential winner's margin with Kamala Harris in blue and Donald Trump in red. An accompanying chart displays the presidential results and racial demographics for each district. A caption says: “This map was drawn to achieve partisan neutrality in accordance with the Wisconsin Supreme Court's 2023 criteria for court-drawn maps.” Trump and Harris each won two seats by large percentage point margins, while Harris won another two seats by margins in the low-to-mid single digits. Trump won the final two seats by high single-digits. Each party would likely win four seats in a neutral year while either party could win five-to-six seats in a very favorable election year.
Comparison of two Louisiana congressional maps that have two majority-Black districts. Voting Rights Act plaintiffs proposed the one on the left, which features more compact districts than the map on the right that was enacted by the Republican-controlled state government in 2024. The plaintiff map proposed creating a second Black VRA district by linking Baton Rouge, Lafayette, Monroe, and parishes along much of the state's border with Mississippi in the 5th District. The Republican map linked Baton Rouge and Shreveport in Louisiana's northwestern corner in a slash-shaped 6th District that sprawled across most of the state. The Supreme Court later struck down this 6th District as a racial gerrymander in a 2026 case where it effectively destroyed the Voting Rights Act.
Image of the Louisiana congressional map approved by state House Republicans. The map has six districts and targets one of the two seats held by black Democrats. Black Democratic voters are packed into a a 2nd District that snakes from New Orleans to Baton Rouge while the 6th District wraps around it on three sides in the latter region. The 6th would flip from majority Black and solidly Democratic to heavily white and overwhelmingly Republican.
He is convinced that introducing proportional representation at Westminster is now essential to “change the political culture” and restore trust in democracy. When he stood for the Greater Manchester mayoralty, which was fought under a single transferrable vote system, he realised that he had to knock on every door to try to secure second preferences. “It made every vote count,” he says. “I don’t see how first past the post and the point-scoring that’s inherent with it lifts Britain out of the doom loop it’s in.” He thinks electoral reform would reassure “my friends the bond markets” by encouraging long-term political stability and cooperation between parties. There would, in his view, need to be a public mandate through a referendum or general election. “I would prefer a manifesto commitment,” he says.
Graph of Politico’s May 22 polling average for the next United Kingdom general election. The results are: Reform (far-right): 25% Labour (center-left): 17% Conservatives (right-wing): 17% Greens (left): 15% Liberal Democrats (center/center-left)): 12% Restore Britain (far-right): 3% Scottish National Party (Scottish nationalist/center-left): 3% Plaid Cymru (Welsh nationalist/left): 1% By potential coalition: Labour-Green-Lib Dem: 44% Reform-Conservative: 42% Regionalists: 4% By bloc: Progressive: 48% Right-wing to far-right: 45%
A black-and-white photograph of 57 jazz musicians in Harlem, New York, taken by freelance photographer Art Kane for Esquire magazine on August 12, 1958. The musicians are wearing fine clothes and are standing on the sidewalk and steps leading up to a brownstone. Several younger people in the photo are in the front sitting on the street curb. Listed alphabetically by last name, the participants include: * Red Allen * Buster Bailey * Count Basie * Emmett Berry * Art Blakey * Lawrence Brown * Scoville Browne * Buck Clayton * Bill Crump * Vic Dickenson * Roy Eldridge * Art Farmer * Bud Freeman * Dizzy Gillespie * Tyree Glenn * Benny Golson * Sonny Greer * Johnny Griffin * Gigi Gryce * Coleman Hawkins * J. C. Heard * Jay C. Higginbotham * Milt Hinton * Chubby Jackson * Hilton Jefferson * Osie Johnson * Hank Jones * Jo Jones * Jimmy Jones * Taft Jordan * Max Kaminsky * Gene Krupa * Eddie Locke * Marian McPartland * Charles Mingus * Miff Mole * Thelonious Monk * Gerry Mulligan * Oscar Pettiford * Rudy Powell * Luckey Roberts * Sonny Rollins * Jimmy Rushing * Pee Wee Russell * Sahib Shihab * Horace Silver * Zutty Singleton * Stuff Smith * Rex Stewart * Maxine Sullivan * Joe Thomas * Wilbur Ware * Dicky Wells * George Wettling * Ernie Wilkins * Mary Lou Williams * Lester Young
Map showing which states have redrawn their congressional maps in 2026 and how many members of each party were targeted. Republicans have targeted 17 Democrats in: Alabama: 1 Florida: 4 Louisiana: 1 Missouri: 1 North Carolina: 1 Ohio: 2 South Carolina: 1 Tennessee: 1 Texas: 5 12 of the targeted Democrats are Black or Latino, hold Voting Rights Act-protected districts, or both. Democrats responded to the initial Texas gerrymander by targeting 5 Republicans in California, but Virginia's Supreme Court overruled a new map that targeted 4 Republicans there. In Utah, a court replaced a Republican gerrymander with a fairer map where Democrats will likely gain one seat.
A cartogram from The Downballot showing the partisan intent behind congressional redistricting in every state in a hypothetical 2028 scenario. States retain their general shapes and relative locations on the map, but they are sized according to how many congressional seats they have and are spread out from each other accordingly. 40% of districts are in blue-colored states drawn to favor Democrats. 42% of districts are in red-colored states drawn to favor Republicans. 19% of districts are in yellow-colored states drawn by neutral parties. 1% of districts are in gray-colored states with only a single district each. Seat counts of states drawn to favor Democrats: California: 52 Colorado: 8 Illinois: 17 Maryland: 8 Massachusetts: 9 Minnesota: 8 Nevada: 4 New Jersey: 12 New Mexico: 3 New York: 26 Oregon: 6 Rhode Island: 2 Virginia: 11 Wisconsin: 8 Seat counts of states drawn by neutral parties: Arizona: 9 Connecticut: 5 Hawaii: 2 Idaho: 2 Iowa: 4 Maine: 2 Michigan: 13 Montana: 2 New Hampshire: 2 Pennsylvania: 17 Utah: 4 Washington: 10 Seat counts of states drawn to favor Republicans: Alabama: 7 Arkansas: 4 Florida: 28 Georgia: 14 Indiana: 9 Kansas: 4 Kentucky: 6 Louisiana: 6 Mississippi: 4 Missouri: 8 Nebraska: 3 North Carolina: 14 Ohio: 15 Oklahoma: 5 South Carolina: 7 Tennessee: 9 Texas: 38 West Virginia: 2 States with a single district: Alaska Delaware North Dakota South Dakota Vermont Wyoming
Table titled "Median Congressional District: D-Minus-R Presidential Margin" from The Downballot. Compares the median congressional district's Democratic-minus-Republican presidential margin across five redistricting scenarios, showing both 2024 and 2020 presidential results. National popular vote (no specific district): 2024 margin −1.5 (R-favoring); 2020 margin +4.5 (D-favoring). 2024 actual map: Median district AZ-01, 2024 margin −3.1; median district VA-02, 2020 margin +1.9. 2026 actual map: Median district PA-10, 2024 margin −5.2; median district FL-27, 2020 margin −0.2. 2028 potential map, new GOP maps only: Median district PA-08, 2024 margin −8.5; median district FL-14, 2020 margin −2.8. 2028 potential map, new maps from both parties: Median district NM-02, 2024 margin −1.8; median district KS-03, 2020 margin +4.5. Cells are color-coded: red shading for negative (R-favoring) margins, blue shading for positive (D-favoring) margins, with deeper shading indicating larger margins. The GOP-only 2028 map produces the most Republican-skewed median district under 2024 results (−8.5), while the scenario where Democrats respond in 2028 produces results closest to the national popular vote.
Image of a hypothetical Washington congressional map that is drawn to ensure Democrats win at least 9 of the 10 seats while the last seat is a swing district. Kamala Harris won 9 districts colored blue, while Trump narrowly won the swing district in light red. An accompanying chart shows the 2024 presidential results for each district.
Image of a hypothetical Wisconsin congressional map drawn to create fair and competitive districts to replace the Republican-favoring gerrymander. The districts are shaded by the 2024 presidential winner's margin with Kamala Harris in blue and Donald Trump in red. An accompanying chart displays the presidential results and racial demographics for each district. Trump and Harris each won two seats by large percentage point margins, while Harris won another two seats by margins in the low-to-mid single digits. Trump won the final two seats by high single-digits. Each party would likely win four seats in a neutral year while either party could win five-to-six seats in a very favorable election year.
Image of a Virginia Democrats' 2026 congressional map that was drawn to elect a ten-to-one Democratic majority and flip four Republican seats. This map was blocked by the state Supreme Court for 2026 but could be implemented in 2028. The district lines are displayed over top of a basemap with major roads and cities labeled. The districts are colored by the 2024 presidential winner's margin of victory, with Kamala Harris districts in blue and Donald Trump districts in red. Darker shades represent larger margins of victory. An embedded chart shows the 2024 presidential election results and the adult population racial demographics in each district. Harris won 10 of the 11 districts, with Trump winning just a single district in western Virginia. Black voters would retain their ability to elect their preferred candidates in Districts 3 and 4, which remain safely Democratic.
Image of a hypothetical Oregon congressional map gerrymandered to elect six Democrats and eliminate the one remaining Republican seat in 2026, with every district shaded solidly blue. An embedded chart shows that Kamala Harris would have won every district by at least 10 percentage points. Harris won by at least 12 points in every Democratic-held district and by 10 points in the Republican-held 2nd District, which includes most of eastern and central Oregon along with part of eastern Portland.
Image of a hypothetical 23-3 Democratic New York congressional map. The districts are colored by the 2024 presidential election winner’s margin of victory, with darker colors representing larger margins. A chart shows the 2024 and 2020 presidential results and the racial/ethnic demographics of adult citizens in each district. Kamala Harris won 23 districts in varying shades of blue, including 19 of them by double digit margins. Donald Trump won three districts in solid red. Joe Biden won three of the four lighter-blue Harris districts by much larger margins against Trump in 2020. Several districts in New York City are predominantly Black, Latino, or Asian.
Image of a hypothetical 11-1 Democratic New Jersey congressional map. The map shows the 2024 presidential election results by district with 11 seats Kamala Harris won in blue and one seat that Donald Trump won in red. Darker shades represent larger margins of victory. An accompanying chart shows the the results for 2024 president, 2020 president, 2025 governor, and the racial demographics for each seat.
Image of a hypothetical 6-2 Minnesota congressional map. An inset shows a closeup of the Twin Cities metropolitan area. An embedded chart displays the 2024 presidential election results and adult racial demographics for each district. The districts are colored by the 2024 presidential election winner's margin, with Kamala Harris districts in blue and Donald Trump districts in red. The districts are shaded by margin with darker colors representing larger margins. Harris won 6 of the districts by comfortable margins while Trump won two dark-red districts.
Graphic of a proposed 8-0 Democratic Maryland congressional map passed by state House Democrats as House Bill 488. The districts are colored various shades of blue depending on the size of Kamala Harris' 2024 presidential margin of victory, with darker colors representing bigger margins. An accompanying chart includes the presidential results and each district's racial demographics for the adult citizen population. All seven Democratic incumbents would be in districts that Harris won by at least 10.7 points, with 3rd District Democratic Rep. Sarah Elfreth likely running in the revised 1st District currently held by Republican Rep. Andy Harris. The potentially open 3rd District favored Harris by 8.6 points. The 4th and 7th districts would remain majority-Black while the open 5th District would shift from plurality-white to plurality-Black, which would likely result in Maryland gaining a third Black Democrat after 2026.
Map of a hypothetical Democratic gerrymander of Illinois' congressional map designed to turn the current 14-3 majority into a 15-2 majority in 2026. The districts are colored by the 2024 presidential winner's margin, with Harris in blue and Trump in red. The blue districts sprawl like pasta noodles across the northern half of the state to redistribute heavily blue parts of the Chicago area and use them to outvote heavily red rural areas. An inset shows a closeup of the Chicago area. An accompanying chart shows that 15 districts would be securely blue while just two would be overwhelmingly red. The 1st, 2nd, and 7th districts would be predominantly Black, the 4th district would be majority Latino, and the 3rd district would be plurality white and 37% Latino. These racial demographics are similar in the existing versions of each of those districts.
Image of Colorado Democrats’ proposed 7-1 congressional map. An embedded chart displays the 2024 presidential election results and adult racial demographics for each district. The districts are colored by the 2024 presidential election winner's margin, with Kamala Harris districts in blue and Donald Trump districts in red. The districts are shaded by margin with darker colors representing larger margins. Harris won 7 of the districts by varying margins while Trump won a single dark-red district in eastern Colorado.
Map of states where Democrats may have the opportunity to redraw congressional maps by 2028 to target seats currently held by Republicans. They could target Republicans in: Colorado: 3 Illinois: 1 Maryland: 1 Minnesota: 2 New Jersey: 2 New York: 4 Oregon: 1 Virginia: 4 Wisconsin: 3 Total: 21
All of this could have been avoided had Republicans gotten behind a national ban on congressional gerrymandering, something that congressional Democrats have worked hard to pass. The GOP, however, remains unanimously opposed, giving Democrats no choice but to keep fighting fire with fire. One of the most bellicose advocates is House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who last month promised “[m]aximum warfare, everywhere, all the time” and more recently told Politico, “We’re going to win in November, and then we’re going to crush their souls as it relates to the extremism that they are trying to unleash on the American people.” Fortunately for Democrats—and democracy—they have many opportunities to do just that.
Table titled "Median Congressional District: D-Minus-R Presidential Margin" from The Downballot. Compares the median congressional district's Democratic-minus-Republican presidential margin across five redistricting scenarios, showing both 2024 and 2020 presidential results. National popular vote (no specific district): 2024 margin −1.5 (R-favoring); 2020 margin +4.5 (D-favoring). 2024 actual map: Median district AZ-01, 2024 margin −3.1; median district VA-02, 2020 margin +1.9. 2026 actual map: Median district PA-10, 2024 margin −5.2; median district FL-27, 2020 margin −0.2. 2028 potential map, new GOP maps only: Median district PA-08, 2024 margin −8.5; median district FL-14, 2020 margin −2.8. 2028 potential map, new maps from both parties: Median district NM-02, 2024 margin −1.8; median district KS-03, 2020 margin +4.5. Cells are color-coded: red shading for negative (R-favoring) margins, blue shading for positive (D-favoring) margins, with deeper shading indicating larger margins. The GOP-only 2028 map produces the most Republican-skewed median district under 2024 results (−8.5), while the scenario where Democrats respond in 2028 produces results closest to the national popular vote.
A cartogram from The Downballot showing the partisan intent behind 2024 congressional redistricting in every state. States retain their general shapes and relative locations on the map, but they are sized according to how many congressional seats they have and are spread out from each other accordingly. 14% of districts are in blue-colored states drawn to favor Democrats. 44% of districts are in red-colored states drawn to favor Republicans. 43% of districts are in yellow-colored states drawn by neutral parties. 1% of districts are in gray-colored states with only a single district each. Each state by seat count and favored party: Alabama: 7 - Neutral Alaska: 1 - One Seat Arizona: 9 - Neutral Arkansas: 4 - Republican California: 52 - Neutral Colorado: 8 - Neutral Connecticut: 5 - Neutral Delaware: 1 - One Seat Florida: 28 - Republican Georgia: 14 - Republican Hawaii: 2 - Neutral Idaho: 2 - Neutral Illinois: 17 - Democratic Indiana: 9 - Republican Iowa: 4 - Neutral Kansas: 4 - Republican Kentucky: 6 - Republican Louisiana: 6 - Neutral Maine: 2 - Neutral Maryland: 8 - Democratic Massachusetts: 9 - Democratic Michigan: 13 - Neutral Minnesota: 8 - Neutral Mississippi: 4 - Republican Missouri: 8 - Republican Montana: 2 - Neutral Nebraska: 3 - Republican Nevada: 4 - Democratic New Hampshire: 2 - Neutral New Jersey: 12 - Democratic New Mexico: 3 - Democratic New York: 26 - Neutral North Carolina: 14 - Republican North Dakota: 1 - One Seat Ohio: 15 - Republican Oklahoma: 5 - Republican Oregon: 6 - Democratic Pennsylvania: 17 - Neutral Rhode Island: 2 - Democratic South Carolina: 7 - Republican South Dakota: 1 - One Seat Tennessee: 9 - Republican Texas: 38 - Republican Utah: 4 - Republican Vermont: 1 - One Seat Virginia: 11 - Neutral Washington: 10 - Neutral West Virginia: 2 - Republican Wisconsin: 8 - Republican Wyoming: 1 - One Seat
Map showing which states have redrawn their congressional maps in 2026 and how many members of each party were targeted. Republicans have targeted 17 Democrats in: Alabama: 1 Florida: 4 Louisiana: 1 Missouri: 1 North Carolina: 1 Ohio: 2 South Carolina: 1 Tennessee: 1 Texas: 5 12 of the targeted Democrats are Black or Latino, hold Voting Rights Act-protected districts, or both. Democrats responded to the initial Texas gerrymander by targeting 5 Republicans in California, but Virginia's Supreme Court overruled a new map that targeted 4 Republicans there. In Utah, a court replaced a Republican gerrymander with a fairer map where Democrats will likely gain one seat.
Map of states where Democrats may have the opportunity to redraw congressional maps by 2028 to target seats currently held by Republicans. They could target Republicans in: Colorado: 3 Illinois: 1 Maryland: 1 Minnesota: 2 New Jersey: 2 New York: 4 Oregon: 1 Virginia: 4 Wisconsin: 3 Total: 21
Financial Times chart of how many times Donald Trump traded stocks each week in his second term according to financial disclosures. The numbers skyrockets from no more than double digits in 2025 into the several hundreds per week in the first quarter of 2026.
Stacked bar chart titled "Republicans have the fewest vulnerable seats in recent memory." Subtitle: "Number of Senate seats up in midterm elections held by the president's party, sorted by the president's performance in the most recent presidential election, 1994 to 2026." Source: ABC News, Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, State Election Results, U.S. Senate. The chart shows nine midterm election cycles. Each bar is divided into five segments by how the president won or lost those states: Lost (dark brown), Won by 0–5 points (dark red), Won by 5–10 points (medium orange), Won by 10–20 points (light orange), and Won by 20+ points (pale yellow). Bar heights (total seats defended): 1994 D: 22, 1998 D: 18, 2002 R: 20, 2006 R: 15, 2010 D: 18, 2014 D: 21, 2018 R: 9, 2022 D: 14, 2026 R: 22. The 2026 Republican bar stands out for having the smallest share of vulnerable seats — only about 2 seats lost and 1 won by 0–5 points — while roughly 12 of the 22 seats were won by 20+ points. By contrast, Democratic cycles like 2014 and 1994 had 7 or more seats in lost or narrow-margin territory. The 2018 Republican bar was the smallest overall at 9 seats, also with few vulnerable seats. A footnote states figures from 1994–2022 are based on incumbent party at the time of the November election; 2026 figures are based on seat data from right after the 2024 election. Independent incumbents are included with the party they caucused with.
If they wind up on the wrong side of this century-old pattern, though, it’s possible they could try to exploit a legal loophole that might allow them to retroactively cancel the election by resigning. Jordan has warned that Warren could quit before her term is over in time for Kemp to appoint her replacement, which could let a replacement justice serve until a new election takes place two years later. Warren declined to answer when Bolts asked her if she might try such a maneuver. Bethel, by contrast, told the site that he would serve out his term whether he wins or loses.
Screenshot of part of an ABC News article. An embedded link shows the latest story: “Trump administration to create $1.776B 'Truth and Justice Commission' to compensate allies: Sources” The earlier article text says: "We know that the president wants to keep setting up these political slush funds," Raskin said. "All of this is outside of the Constitution. All of it is outside of congressional spending power, and so it is illegal. It is unconstitutional." A commission overseeing the compensation fund would have total authority to settle claims, which could be brought by the nearly 1,600 individuals charged in connection to the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol and entities associated with Trump himself
Graphic of a hypothetical nonpartisan Louisiana congressional map in a scenario without the Voting Rights Act. Five districts are majority white and Republican. Four of those seats are dark red while Trump won a seat in Baton Rouge by 9 points. One district in New Orleans is heavily Democratic and has a narrow white plurality over Black adults.
A New York Times graphic comparing two U.S. House district maps for eight Southern states, shown side by side. The left map shows the actual 2024 maps, which Republicans gerrymandered in every state except Alabama and Louisiana. Democrats won 24 seats total. Most of the map is red (Republican). Blue (Democratic) districts appear in urban and majority-minority areas. The size of the Republican majority in each state: Alabama: 5-2 Florida: 20-8 Georgia: 9-5 Louisiana: 4-2 Mississippi: 3-1 North Carolina: 10-4 South Carolina: 6-1 Tennessee: 8-1 Total: 65-24 The right map shows supposedly "colorblind" and "party-blind" maps that the Times' Nate Cohn drew using computer algorithms only based on two factors, compactness and limiting splits to counties and cities. The Republican majority in each state would be: Alabama: 6-1 Florida: 21-7 Georgia: 8-6 Louisiana: 5-1 Mississippi: 4-0 North Carolina: 9-5 South Carolina: 6-1 Tennessee: 7-2 Total: 66-23 Cohn's maps purport to be nonpartisan, and he claims Black voters would have just as much voting power without gerrymandering or Voting Rights Act districts as they did with the current maps that included Voting Rights Act-protected districts. However, on his maps, Democrats would lose one seat overall for just 23 total, and several majority-Black districts would be eliminated while he claims Black Democrats could win several crossover districts thanks to white Democratic voters.
Image of a hypothetical nonpartisan North Carolina congressional map. Districts are colored by 2024 presidential election margin with Donald Trump seats in red and Kamala Harris districts in blue. Darker shades represent larger margins. An embedded chart shows the presidential results in 2024 and 2020 and the racial demographics for each district. Harris and Trump each won seven districts. Four districts are solidly blue, three districts are blue-leaning, two districts are red-leaning, and five districts are solidly red. Black voters would have the ability to elect their preferred candidates in District 1, and they would have the opportunity to do so in districts 6 and 12. Black voters would also make up a sizable majority of Democratic primary voters in District 8, which is a competitive Republican-leaning seat.
Graphic of a hypothetical Florida nonpartisan congressional map that complies with the 2010 Fair Districts Amendment. On the left side is a map divided into 28 districts colored blue or red according to the 2024 presidential election winner’s margin, with darker shades representing larger margins. A separate inset shows a closeup of southeast Florida. A chart on the right side shows the 2024 and 2020 presidential results and the racial demographics for the adult citizen population in each district. Kamala Harris carried nine districts in blue while Donald Trump won 19 districts in red in 2024. However, Trump only carried 15 districts to Joe Biden’s 13 in 2020. Democrats likely would have won all nine Harris districts and two of the Biden-Trump districts in 2024.
A graphic comparing two congressional district maps for eight Southern states shown side by side. On the left side are supposedly "colorblind" and "party-blind" maps that The New York Times' Nate Cohn drew by computer algorithms based only on two factors, compactness and limiting splits to counties and cities. The Republican majority in each state would be: Alabama: 6-1 Florida: 21-7 Georgia: 8-6 Louisiana: 5-1 Mississippi: 4-0 North Carolina: 9-5 South Carolina: 6-1 Tennessee: 7-2 Total: 66-23 Cohn's maps purport to be nonpartisan, and he claims Black voters would have just as much voting power without gerrymandering or Voting Rights Act districts as they did with the current maps that included Voting Rights Act-protected districts. However, on his maps, Democrats would lose one seat overall for just 23 total, and several majority-Black districts would be eliminated while he claims Black Democrats could win several crossover districts thanks to white Democratic voters. On the right are maps drawn by The Downballot's Stephen Wolf using a broad range of nonpartisan criteria, which include communities of interest—defined by shared culture, history, demographics, economics, etc.—natural geography, limiting splits to counties and cities, and compactness. These maps comply with the Voting Rights Act and state constitutional requirements. The 2024 election likely would have resulted in the following delegations for each state: Alabama: 5 Republicans, 2 Democrats Florida: 17 Republicans, 11 Democrats Georgia: 7 Republicans, 7 Democrats Louisiana: 4 Republicans, 2 Democrats Mississippi: 3 Republicans, 1 Democrat North Carolina: 7 Republicans, 7 Democrats South Carolina: 5 Republicans, 2 Democrats Tennessee: 7 Republicans, 2 Democrats Total: 55 Republicans, 34 Democrats
A graphic of hypothetical congressional maps for eight Southern states drawn by The Downballot's Stephen Wolf using a broad range of nonpartisan criteria. The districts are colored red for Republican and blue for Democrats and match the New York Times' style for comparison to their simulated map. The 2024 election likely would have resulted in the following delegations for each state Alabama: 5 Republicans, 2 Democrats Florida: 17 Republicans, 11 Democrats Georgia: 7 Republicans, 7 Democrats Louisiana: 4 Republicans, 2 Democrats Mississippi: 3 Republicans, 1 Democrat North Carolina: 7 Republicans, 7 Democrats South Carolina: 5 Republicans, 2 Democrats Tennessee: 7 Republicans, 2 Democrats Total: 55 Republicans, 34 Democrats Links to interactive maps with election and demographic data in Dave's Redistricting App: Alabama: https://davesredistricting.org/join/67fa9a24-e1f1-4b50-9c24-ccd541378ca9 Florida: https://davesredistricting.org/join/483818cf-d3dd-4959-92f4-74ac58aa57de Georgia: https://davesredistricting.org/join/276c3bf4-828b-4938-a904-3547310d6d5d Louisiana: https://davesredistricting.org/join/e03ed0e3-e6e5-4268-9390-ebb08c52bc51 Mississippi: https://davesredistricting.org/join/7fb76549-735d-4852-8835-63376388735d North Carolina: https://davesredistricting.org/join/432c4e7b-91b5-458e-b1f1-41e71cefb3b4 South Carolina: https://davesredistricting.org/join/8b0bb8c6-1c6b-4a62-9722-097b7ee1bfd4 Tennessee: https://davesredistricting.org/join/ab8dd24c-a20f-482d-9ad3-afda40b3653b
A graphic of hypothetical congressional maps for eight Southern states drawn by The Downballot's Stephen Wolf using a broad range of nonpartisan criteria. The districts are colored red for Republican and blue for Democrats and match the New York Times' style for comparison to their simulated map. The 2024 election likely would have resulted in the following delegations for each state Alabama: 5 Republicans, 2 Democrats Florida: 17 Republicans, 11 Democrats Georgia: 7 Republicans, 7 Democrats Louisiana: 4 Republicans, 2 Democrats Mississippi: 3 Republicans, 1 Democrat North Carolina: 7 Republicans, 7 Democrats South Carolina: 5 Republicans, 2 Democrats Tennessee: 7 Republicans, 2 Democrats Total: 55 Republicans, 34 Democrats Links to interactive maps with election and demographic data in Dave's Redistricting App: Alabama: https://davesredistricting.org/join/67fa9a24-e1f1-4b50-9c24-ccd541378ca9 Florida: https://davesredistricting.org/join/483818cf-d3dd-4959-92f4-74ac58aa57de Georgia: https://davesredistricting.org/join/276c3bf4-828b-4938-a904-3547310d6d5d Louisiana: https://davesredistricting.org/join/e03ed0e3-e6e5-4268-9390-ebb08c52bc51 Mississippi: https://davesredistricting.org/join/7fb76549-735d-4852-8835-63376388735d North Carolina: https://davesredistricting.org/join/432c4e7b-91b5-458e-b1f1-41e71cefb3b4 South Carolina: https://davesredistricting.org/join/8b0bb8c6-1c6b-4a62-9722-097b7ee1bfd4 Tennessee: https://davesredistricting.org/join/ab8dd24c-a20f-482d-9ad3-afda40b3653b
A graphic comparing two congressional district maps for eight Southern states shown side by side. On the left side are supposedly "colorblind" and "party-blind" maps that The New York Times' Nate Cohn drew by computer algorithms based only on two factors, compactness and limiting splits to counties and cities. The Republican majority in each state would be: Alabama: 6-1 Florida: 21-7 Georgia: 8-6 Louisiana: 5-1 Mississippi: 4-0 North Carolina: 9-5 South Carolina: 6-1 Tennessee: 7-2 Total: 66-23 Cohn's maps purport to be nonpartisan, and he claims Black voters would have just as much voting power without gerrymandering or Voting Rights Act districts as they did with the current maps that included Voting Rights Act-protected districts. However, on his maps, Democrats would lose one seat overall for just 23 total, and several majority-Black districts would be eliminated while he claims Black Democrats could win several crossover districts thanks to white Democratic voters. On the right are maps drawn by The Downballot's Stephen Wolf using a broad range of nonpartisan criteria, which include communities of interest—defined by shared culture, history, demographics, economics, etc.—natural geography, limiting splits to counties and cities, and compactness. These maps comply with the Voting Rights Act and state constitutional requirements. The 2024 election likely would have resulted in the following delegations for each state: Alabama: 5 Republicans, 2 Democrats Florida: 17 Republicans, 11 Democrats Georgia: 7 Republicans, 7 Democrats Louisiana: 4 Republicans, 2 Democrats Mississippi: 3 Republicans, 1 Democrat North Carolina: 7 Republicans, 7 Democrats South Carolina: 5 Republicans, 2 Democrats Tennessee: 7 Republicans, 2 Democrats Total: 55 Republicans, 34 Democrats
Image of Louisiana Republicans’ proposed 5-1 congressional gerrymander that would flip one of two majority-Black districts held by Democrats. District 2 resembles a thin snake along the Mississippi River from New Orleans to Baton Rouge that packs Black Democrats into a single district. District 6 wraps around District 2 from Baton Rouge to halfway to New Orleans. It would flip to heavily white and Republican.