Steve Cicala

@stevecicala.bsky.social

11905 Followers 655 Following

Vontobel Foundation Professor of Sustainable Economics University of Zurich Tufts University (on leave) https://www.stevecicala.com http://goingelectric.substack.com

1941/2026 slider picture of an overpass at the same height.
This weekend, America celebrates its 250th birthday. For over 90 of those years, Social Security has provided financial freedom for America's seniors. President Donald J. Trump and the Trump Administration are not only protecting Social Security, but we are providing meaningful and immediate relief to older Americans who have spent decades contributing to our nation's economy.
And because there has been a weak central government — a contested central government in Somalia in the modern period — there is a feeling that exploiting the central government is permissible. And the underlying point, which is very uncomfortable, not just for people who are small-L liberals, but even for many conservatives, is that, actually, all national cultures are not equal.
ESPN screen shot.
reply all by default
There must be a pony!
Dear Dr. Cicala, We have created an account for you in the manuscript tracking system of...
$1M a ship isn't cool. You know what's cool? Opening and closing the straight after taking a market position.
In the past, I think you have been quoted as saying that you don’t even believe in the possibility of bubbles. I never said that. I want people to use the term in a consistent way. For example, I didn’t renew my subscription to The Economist because they use the world bubble three times on every page. Any time prices went up and down—I guess that is what they call a bubble. People have become entirely sloppy. People have jumped on the bandwagon of blaming financial markets. I can tell a story very easily in which the financial markets were a casualty of the recession, not a cause of it. That’s your view, correct? Yeah.
Trump Account Election Select if you want to open a Trump account for eligible children so they can receive any contributions available to them.
Drake meme
Cocoa price go down.
The logic, insofar as there is any, goes like this: the war has crashed the global oil market so hard that the administration needs the enemy’s oil to keep gasoline prices from eating the midterms. They are unsanctioning the people they’re bombing because the bombing is working too well at the thing they didn’t want it to do. The sanctions were necessary to stop Iran funding the war, but the war made the sanctions too effective, so the sanctions had to be lifted to fund the war effort against the country that no longer needs sanctions because the oil revenues that sanctions were preventing are now required to prevent the economic damage caused by preventing those revenues, which is itself a consequence of the military campaign designed to make the sanctions unnecessary by making Iran the kind of country that doesn’t need sanctioning, which it would be, if the sanctions hadn’t been lifted to pay for making it that.
Biden "I did that" sticker on gas pump.
country,share_right,total_bad,bloc_parties,source_basis US,45,53,Republican Party,2025–26 generic ballot polling Turkey,44,49,AKP + MHP,2025 polling averages Brazil,33,48,Bolsonaro-aligned right parties (PL bloc),2025 polling averages Greece,15,44,Greek Solution + Spartans + Niki,2025 polling France,39,43,National Rally + Reconquete,2026 polling trend Italy,40,40,Brothers of Italy + Lega,2025 polling South Africa,6,36,Freedom Front Plus + Patriotic Alliance,2024 election baseline Hungary,48,31,Fidesz + Our Homeland,2025 polling averages Argentina,38,29,La Libertad Avanza,2025 polling Poland,41,28,PiS + Confederation,2025 polling Spain,14,28,Vox,2025 polling Israel,34,27,Likud + Religious Zionism + Otzma Yehudit,2025 polling averages Germany,25,27,AfD,2026 polling South Korea,37,22,People Power Party,2025 polling Netherlands,24,19,PVV + Forum for Democracy + JA21,2025 polling UK,31,17,Reform UK,2026 polling Mexico,20,17,PAN,2025 polling Japan,8,16,Sanseito + nationalist minor parties,2025 polling Australia,7,14,One Nation + United Australia Party,2025 polling Sweden,21,12,Sweden Democrats,2025 polling India,40,9,BJP,2024–25 polling Indonesia,14,8,Gerindra,2025 polling Canada,5,7,People's Party of Canada,2025 polling
kalshi market crashes after oral arguments
A figure depicting a steady march toward global catastrophe.
Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour. https://www.ft.com/content/53aca7af-d800-4dc7-ae50-b247e0fa6d3c?utm_social_post_id=645055466&utm_social_handle_id=did%3Aplc%3A5u54z2qgkq43dh2nzwzdbbhb They should emphasise that existing agreements already give the US every right to beef up security or mine Greenland’s minerals. But, as they have done with Nato more broadly, they should offer to bear more of the cost and logistical burden of bolstering security in Greenland and the Arctic.
QJE vol 140 issue 4
Can you find the matlamb?
Picture of street in Cuba
We study how Elon Musk's polarizing and partisan actions have impacted Tesla vehicle sales in the United States. Using county-level, monthly data on new vehicle registrations, we leverage how changes in vehicle sales over time diverge across counties with differing shares of Democratic and Republican voters. Without the Musk partisan effect, Tesla sales between October 2022 and April 2025 would have been 67-83% higher, equivalent to 1-1.26 million more vehicles. Musk’s partisan activities also increased the sales of other automakers' electric and hybrid vehicles 17-22% because of substitution, and undermined California’s progress in meeting its zero-emissions vehicle target.
FRED: Manufacturing output near all-time highs
Drake meme: taxes v gifts to the government
President Donald Trump has told members of his New Jersey golf club that he spends so much time away from Washington because the White House is a "real dump."
I want to distinguish between chickenshit and cowardice. Fear is part of human existence. Bravery is the overcoming of fear, not its absence. Acts of cowardice can be provoked by genuine danger—think of a deserting soldier fleeing the peril of the battlefield. When you’re chickenshit, you capitulate to avoid the mere possibility of discomfort, let alone something resembling real risk. Disney is one of the largest companies in the world, with a devoted following and a market cap bigger than many countries’ stock markets. It did not have to cave.
"I didn't renew my subscription to The Economist because they use the world bubble three times on every page"
Adolf Hitler became Chancellor of the German Reich on 30 January 1930. At this time Albert Einstein was in the United States visiting the California Institute of Technology. Max Planck was Secretary of the Mathematics and Natural Science Section of the Prussian Academy of Sciences and president of the Kaiser Wilhelm Gesellschaft, the main German research organisation. On 23 February 1933, the Reichstag Fire gave Hitler the excuse to suspend all civil liberties in Germany. On 10 March 1933 Einstein reacted to the situation in Germany declaring that he could not live in a country where such liberties were not upheld: As long as I have any choice, I will only stay in a country where political liberty, toleration, and equality of all citizens before the law are the rule. Political liberty implies liberty to express one's political views orally and in writing, toleration, respect for any and every individual opinion. These conditions do not obtain in Germany at the present time. Those who have done most for the cause of international understanding, among them some of the leading artists, are being persecuted there. Any social organism can become psychically distempered just as any individual can, especially in times of difficulty. Nations usually survive these distempers. I hope that healthy conditions will soon supervene in Germany, and that in future her great men like Kant and Goethe will not merely be commemorated from time to time, but that the principles which they inculcated will also prevail in public life and in the general consciousness.
Buy Coal! A Case for Supply-Side Environmental Policy
Trump Issues ‘Last Warning’ From U.S. Open
America is incomparably less endangered by its own Communists than by the hysterical hunt for the few Communists there are here (including those fellow citizens whose red tinge is weaker, à la Jefferson). Why should America be so much more endangered than England by the English Communists? Or is one to believe that the English are politically more naive than the Americans so that they do not realize the danger they are in? No one there works with inquisitions, suspicions, oaths, etc., and still “subversives” do not go unchecked. There, no teachers and no university professors have been thrown out of their jobs, and the Communists there appear to have even less influence than formerly.
Revolutionary Device Would Tame Energy Of Hydrogen Bomb for Peaceful Uses This is by far the most optimistic statement yet made on the possible realization of practical hydrogen fusion power. Prof. Homi J. Bhabha of India predicted in his presidential address at the opening of the first United Nations Conference on the Peaceful Uses of Atomic Energy in Geneva in 1955 that hydrogen fusion power would be harnessed "within the next two decades," or by about 1975. If the present tests with the Astron should prove successful—and present expectations are high—then controlled economical fusion power may become a reality even sooner than Professor Bhabha predicted.
Nearly 50 years later, things have changed dramatically. Largely because of the Voting Rights Act, “[v]oter turnout and registration rates” in covered jurisdictions “now approach parity. Blatantly discriminatory evasions of federal decrees are rare. And minority candidates hold office at unprecedented levels.” Northwest Austin, supra, at 202. The tests and devices that blocked ballot access have been forbidden nationwide for over 40 years. Yet the Act has not eased §5’s restrictions or narrowed the scope of §4’s coverage formula along the way. Instead those extraordinary and unprecedented features have been reauthorized as if nothing has changed, and they have grown even stronger. Because §5 applies only to those jurisdictions singled out by §4, the Court turns to consider that provision. Pp. 13–17.  (b) Section 4’s formula is unconstitutional in light of current conditions. Pp. 17–25.
Trump Backs Putin's Plan to Cede Land for Peace in Ukraine
and others
Constitution.congress.gov is down.
GET WITHIN 500 FT OF A PLAYGROUND AGAIN
Taxing a monopolist raises prices further and creates larger deadweight losses than taxing a competitively priced good.
But it is implausible to suppose that the Constitution affirmatively delegated to the States the authority to impose such a burden on congressional power with respect to candidates for federal office.
National Popular Vote has been enacted into law by 18 jurisdictions, including 6 small states (DC, DE, HI, ME, RI, VT), 9 medium-sized states (CO, CT, MD, MA, MN, NJ, NM, OR, WA), and 3 big states (CA, IL, NY). These jurisdictions have 209 of the 270 electoral votes needed to activate the law. It has also passed in legislative chambers in 7 additional states with 74 electoral votes (AR, AZ, MI, NC, NV, OK, VA). Over 3,800 state legislators have sponsored or cast a recorded vote in favor of it.
But the argument is, basically, we do not need to subsidize these technologies. Why is that wrong? Flegal: Having abundant electrons that we can use to fuel economic growth and meet rising demand for energy in the United States — which is happening for the first time in decades — is a public good. We subsidize all kinds of energy development because we know that a robust and large and abundant energy system is good for economic growth. It underpins the entire economy. And it’s good for our national security. Even if you didn’t care about climate change, solar and batteries are the most rapid way — and in many cases the most cost-effective way — to meet growing demand. There’s absolutely a public argument for subsidizing this stuff, even if it’s relatively mature, in the same way we subsidize all kinds of things that are relatively mature because they’re good for society. Then, of course, an argument is that most Republicans will not deny that climate change is a problem. Some do, but many Republicans now will acknowledge climate change is a problem. They’ll just argue for a different solution set than Democrats. If you believe climate change is a problem, then you’re subsidizing not just the public good of abundant energy that’s affordable but also the climate benefit. What is the solution set? I try to be fair to Republicans on this show, but I have not heard many Republicans arguing for something that would qualify as a solution set for climate change.
So should regulators take the industry at its word? It’s important to note that—in spite of announced or actual “closing” of plants—hardly a screw has been removed from any of the nuclear plants recently “retired.” Decommissioning is a long-term process with many opportunities to change course as long as the operating license remains valid. This makes announcing closure a lot like convincing a child you’ll leave without them if they don’t get in the car: “I’m putting my shoes on….I’m putting my coat on…I’m getting the keys…I really mean it…” Regulators should not be so naïve.
reports of Trump "maybe" acquiring companies in the 1980s
GOP-Controlled State — 19 states, 177 districts: Alabama (7), Arkansas (4), Florida (28), Georgia (14), Indiana (9), Iowa (4), Kansas (4), Kentucky (6), Louisiana (6), Mississippi (4), Missouri (8), Nebraska (3), Ohio (15), Oklahoma (5), South Carolina (7), Tennessee (9), Texas (38), Utah (4), and West Virginia (2). Democratic-Controlled State — 7 states, 49 districts: Illinois (17), Maryland (8), Massachusetts (9), New Mexico (3), Nevada (4), Oregon (6), and Rhode Island (2). Split Control — 1 state, 2 districts: Maine (2). Court — 8 states, 91 districts: Connecticut (5), Minnesota (8), North Carolina (14), New Hampshire (2), New York (26), Pennsylvania (17), Virginia (11), and Wisconsin (8). Independent Commission — 4 states, 82 districts: Arizona (9), California (52), Colorado (8), and Michigan (13). Political Commission — 5 states, 28 districts: Hawaii (2), Idaho (2), Montana (2), New Jersey (12), and Washington (10). At-Large State — 6 states, 6 districts: Alaska (1), Delaware (1), North Dakota (1), South Dakota (1), Vermont (1), and Wyoming (1).
The Senate shall have the sole Power to try all Impeachments. When sitting for that Purpose, they shall be on Oath or Affirmation. When the President of the United States is tried, the Chief Justice shall preside: And no Person shall be convicted without the Concurrence of two thirds of the Members present.
Workers tend to herbs grown beneath solar panels in a photovoltaic plantation in Lihua, Lianyungang, Jiangsu province, China, on July 21, 2024.
Giving sharks a little blood to sate them is not how this works.
Vitamin G, are you fucking kidding me, WebMD?