Writer of climate fiction or cli-fi. But my work is preapocalyptic and optimistic, unlike most works in this space.
![This according to data reported to us for [the] Hourly Electric Grid Monitor." The July 22 peak was 6% greater than the previous peak of 85.5 GW, set on August 10, 2023 according to ERCOT. Peak occurred at 6:00 p.m. CT and was primarily met with generation from natural gas (48%) and solar (32%) resources according to data reported to EIA."
Peak occurred during a heat wave and could be surpassed again this summer, especially if Texas experiences another heat wave. "Electricity demand and generation in ERCOT have been increasing in Texas." But note how the solar buildout contributed to stability, not even mentioning wind power.
Abutting the Texas border, "more recently, electricity demand in the Southwest Power Pool reached a record 57.9 GW on July 27 at 5:00 p.m. CT." The SPP, unlike ERCOT, serves multiple states. The SPP region lies in the central southern U.S., serving all of the states of Kansas and Oklahoma, and portions of New Mexico, Texas [the part not served by ERCOT], Arkansas, Louisiana, Missouri, South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, Minnesota, Iowa, Wyoming, and Nebraska.
FERC, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, is concerned that the SPP may be the U.S. entity most likely to fall short in providing enough generation assets as electricity prices climb.
In regions with increasing electricity demand and generation, periods of high demand, such as heat waves, are likely to continue to set records. You can bet your bottom dollar on it. But, when you flip that coin, don't let it fall on asphalt, as it may stick.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nnq2reoe4aaiyhhtsofqmdrz/bafkreidk3hqsgi4jcxjf25njithhh6oaxi5r2efvnvxiu7w37ggtfoiw4a)
![Solar panels produced 51% of California’s electricity in May, the first time the clean energy source surpassed the halfway mark for an entire month. Amazingly, for once the data included both utility-scale + rooftop distributed solar installations on residences + commercial + industrial locations.
"This isn’t just a milestone moment for California; it’s a milestone for the entire world." Think tank Ember says the state is the globe’s first major economy to cross the 50% threshold. (Hungary, at 47% in June 2025, is knocking at the door, though it has a far smaller GDP.)
"Natural gas is the only fossil fuel that California power plants burn at appreciable levels, and solar is steadily squeezing it out of the system," as it must. "Case in point: Solar outproduced gas not only during its record month of May but throughout every month in 2026 leading up to it, too."
Solar could not have reached these heights alone. "It needed batteries to get here—and California has that crucial energy storage in spades." The California Independent System Operator [CAISO], which manages most of the state’s grid, now boasts 16 gigawatts [GW] of batteries that can shift abundant midday solar production to later in the evening. "It’s not uncommon for batteries to meet over one-quarter of the state’s electricity demand for a portion of the night."
Dan McCarthy, the author of the article, calculated that storage had grown by—26,129% over the last decade, 'a number so cartoonishly large' that he was almost hesitant to print it. The energy revolution, the progress toward an 'electrostate' is happening in real time, racing to solve our climate dilemma while we still have time.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nnq2reoe4aaiyhhtsofqmdrz/bafkreid6x7ys6rdstdjz6duuuqzdh7pnuu7yqxmmqppt46jhafgqrfkcyy)
!["Branchett et al. used single-cell sequencing approaches to profile immune cells in the lungs of individuals who were recent household contacts for patients with TB."
They 'interrogated' the airway immune response at single-cell resolution in bronchoalveolar lavage [fluid from lung endoscopy] with positron emission + computed tomography-characterized recent TB household contacts, who either controlled the infection or progressed to symptomatic disease, as well as of patients with active TB at diagnosis.
They found an inverse relationship between airway neutrophils or 'pus cells' vs. T-cells, which are 'lymphocytes' involved in the immune response to infection. [Additionally, single-cell sequencing revealed interferon-dependent + interferon-independent 'signatures' in the neutrophils].
T cells showing signatures of exhaustion, cytotoxicity + cell death were found in progressors + patients with active TB, thus with a neutrophil-dominated airway profile. Conversely, they identified T cell signatures of protection in nonprogressor contacts dominated by genes related to regulation, quiescence and a stem-cell-like profile.
"Our findings from early human airway responses in TB contacts reveal genes, pathways and cell states that may dictate infection outcome and inform strategies for developing effective host-directed therapies and vaccines."
Personally, I was never a progressor, never had active disease, but did develop a positive TB skin test during the early 1980s when I was taking care of a number of TB-infected patients. After some months of isoniazid [INH] therapy, my lifetime risk of TB is basically zero + I will never be infectious for others, at least as long as I avoid immunosuppression.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nnq2reoe4aaiyhhtsofqmdrz/bafkreihn6nmn656hvacu7kgmweh7zbtk7ks4exvvfwqzyvwaeksdnzjw4m)
![There, sometimes more than 200 meters down, these transparent “glassworms”—the young of the phantom midge fly (Chaoborus edulis)—wait it out while predatory fish roam the shallower waters.
"At night, the larvae return to the surface to feed under the cover of darkness." This daily migration means withstanding pressures 20 times greater than normal—a feat that would kill most humans and one thought impossible for insects, whose respiratory systems should implode under such conditions.
"Four long, banana-shaped air sacs expand and contract to adjust the glassworm’s buoyancy, yet they remain rigid enough to avoid being crushed—an adaptation not see in any other insect, researchers report [this wk] in Science."
Instead of lungs, insects have a tracheal system of air-filled tubes that run through their bodies, delivering oxygen + removing CO2. "Part of this system includes sacs that act as short-term storage for air." But unlike other insects, Chaoborus fly larvae don’t use these sacs to help them breathe, instead, they’ve converted them into organs that help them control their buoyancy.
"In 2022, Phil Matthews, a comparative physiologist at the University of British Columbia (UBC), + his team found that the air sacs were made up of bands of cuticles and resilin, a flexible protein, which itself is surrounded by a protective layer of tissue." Chemical changes in the larvae’s body cause the air sacs to expand “like an accordion” or shrink.
"To discover the limits of this system, Matthews and his colleagues turned to Lake Malawi." When Chaoborus larvae pupate and emerge as flies, he says, they “erupt out of the lake.” Using sonor, they found the glassworms reached a depth of 213 meters, though they sometimes dove as far as 258 meters = 846 ft.
Consider this your deep dive for today into insect physiology.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nnq2reoe4aaiyhhtsofqmdrz/bafkreigrxw3fafudgnr7o5uxxgpcqgfwy6t2xhknummfxliq7kpgkhwzmm)
![Patriots used. "In Vietnam + in Afghanistan, America similarly defeated by enemies that were nominally less advanced yet implacable." Most every American has seen the humiliating images of 'last helicopter taking off from Saigon, and chaos of the mad scramble to board the last plane departing in Kabul.' [I would throw in the second Iraq war].
"But the loss to Iran is different: it is the closest we have come to outright military defeat." U.S. forces pulled out of Saigon and Kabul, not because they had been beaten in battle, but because the domestic political cost of propping up client regimes became too great.
"All indications are that the main reason the Trump administration is again calling off major operations against Iran is that America is running critically short of ammunition [+ weapons]. "Most reports, like one from the Wall Street Journal, say that Trump is backing down because military professionals have finally managed to convince him that U.S. stocks of advanced munitions are so severely depleted that the current rate of use will soon leave America critically weakened."
It should worry everybody that replenishing these stocks will take years—even after the shooting stops. "For example, the Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates that the US has expended more than half of the Patriot missiles it had before the war, and that it will take until 2029 to replace them [see graphic]. As Krugman states, "the administration’s response to such reports, exemplified by recent remarks by Mike Waltz, the US ambassador to the United Nations, is three-fold: munitions aren’t depleted—or anyone leaking the fact that they are depleted should go to jail—or it’s Joe Biden’s fault."
The fixed belief that “lethality” is how you win surely led to basic inability to anticipate the blindingly obvious: that we have a limited supply of sophisticated weapons and that the Iranians could close Straits of Hormuz.
Seems to me that Krugman just about nailed it.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nnq2reoe4aaiyhhtsofqmdrz/bafkreibebuosditvot35ymzt7xympwkuwpyriu5zb5ol7mdhnunqmjbe44)
![Chart of energy sector costs. Utilities think in megawatt-hours, but take away 3 zeroes + you get the kWhs that you see on your monthly electric bill.
Note first the lower end of utility-scale solar went up from $38 per megawatt-hour to $40 per MWh [red circle] from a yr ago.
Onshore wind, secondly, is unchanged from $37 per MWh [red circle]. [Wind with storage up from $44 to $49 per MWh].
These 2 sustainable generation assets continue to be the cost champions.
Coal is up from $71 to $72 per MWh [red arrow appropriately aiming down].
Nuclear is up from $173 to $175 per MWh [red arrow pushing ahead with over $100 billion of federal subsidies].
Setting aside for a moment the problems of radwaste, diversion of special nuclear material, radiation releases in the long front end + back end of the nuclear fuel cycle, major accidents—let's just focus on the economics of nuclear energy.
Nukes are slowest to build, + their electricity is the most expensive on the planet. So one can love nukes or not, but instead trust the market + let the chips fall where they may. Yes, we could have a long discussion about SMRs + other novel technologies, but none is proven yet in the US,+ we probably won't see operating plants until the mid-2030s at the earliest. Russia + China have the only examples of operating SMRs, but both are authoritarian countries that can just plow ahead + spend whatever they want. Is that who we are now?
And should the federal government be picking winners + losers anyway or should the market determine that?
And can any of you explain why globally the number of reactors has declined over the last 2 decades?
And why the world-wide share of nuclear electricity is down to 9%?
I look forward to some rational discussion of these points. And please take a stab at answering my questions. Thanks.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nnq2reoe4aaiyhhtsofqmdrz/bafkreibief34owbdrro4khcw6o66by7urbxi7haqtyat2iw5hwgqymxyim)
!["Unfortunately for the aquatic environments in which they rest, most of these come from the modern era (1800s, 1900s + 2000s], when the presence of hazardous materials or dangerous ordnance onboard was not only possible, but likely."
"The world’s oceans are littered with shipwrecks, with some estimates placing the number at around 3 million." Of the 3 M, roughly 15,000 date to the years during which WWI + WWII were fought, and a vast majority of those ships are slowly poisoning their surrounding environments.
"One wreck of particular concern is a German UC-30 submarine located 66 nautical miles west of Nymindegab, Denmark [not the one in the photo]." Lying 23 meters below the surface on a shallow, sandy reef of glacial deposits in the North Sea, this UC-30 submarine specialized in minelaying intended to wreak havoc on enemy harbors and shipping lanes.
"A necessary part of that job was carrying lots of 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene, more commonly known as TNT, which was housed in 18 onboard sea mines." In a new study published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment, a team of researchers from Germany, Belgium, and Denmark analyzed sediments from the submarine’s minewells—six vertical shafts built into the pressure hull that carried three mines each—to understand the make-up of the microbiome at work.
"In samples taken from the wreck, scientists found distinct taxonomic shifts within the minewells of the wreck—specifically, a drastic increase of Proteobacteria like Haliaceae and Rhodobacteraceae, both of which are microbes that can break down hydrocarbons and survive extreme chemical stress." They do this by leveraging survival enzymes like glutathione transferases + oxidoreductases.
Ain't nature grand? Evolutionary selective pressure favors bacteria that can accomplish bioremediation.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nnq2reoe4aaiyhhtsofqmdrz/bafkreievfahd74sbcwsfpkrwbai7qdyfnnuphb6ntsmeq54w4tq7ofugby)
![Megafires right lower segment. Unhealthy air alerts stretched from Minneapolis to New York City.
"The smoke-pocalypse has renewed a long-standing debate online that these fires aren’t really about climate change at all, but about forest mismanagement." The argument is that decades of aggressive fire suppression have let fuel pile up—not enough logging, thinning or prescribed burning. To be fair, "the fire-deficit story is a genuine phenomenon in the dry conifer forests of the western United States."
But most of what’s burning in Canada is boreal forest, which is a fundamentally different predicament. "Canada’s area burned has surged, and it has surged in step with warming: hot, dry fire seasons burn far more forest, with area burned rises roughly 80% for each 1ºC increase in fire-season temperature." Historically, boreal burns occurred as rare, high-intensity crown fires on a natural cycle measured in a century or more, across enormous remote areas that have never been logged, thinned, or effectively suppressed.
"Canadian fire seasons (May through September) have warmed about 2.2ºC on average since 1959." Canada warms at roughly twice the global rate, and its north at roughly three times. In the plot of fire season weather, you can see the lower right 'hot + dry' sector has the most area burned + most of the 10 largest fires [outlined in black]. "About 71% of Canada’s area burned over 1990–2023 came from lightning-ignited fires, and in the record 2023 season it was ~93%."
These are remote boreal megafires, ignited by lightning far from any road, timber lease, or fuel-treatment crew. "And because warming is expected to increase high-latitude lightning, climate change can contribute to both the fuel dryness and the ignition side of the equation."
So, the blame cannot be laid on Canadian intransigence. Any more than tariffs can address the problem.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nnq2reoe4aaiyhhtsofqmdrz/bafkreiedcgykgv7wh3yuxtwadgchjzjf3s4mdq4tazz6ltqxnhm3k2ycqa)
![Aral seabed. "Its loss has long been seen as an ecological and humanitarian problem, but new research shows that it has also been a significant driver of climate change." The explanation is that when nearly any body of water is full and works as it should, organic matter collects on the bottom, where it remains trapped, often for centuries or even millennia.
Rafael Marcé, a research scientist in Spain, is the lead author of the paper which was published [this wk] in the journal Science. "The Aral Sea has left behind a timeline of sorts." The edges dried out decades back, while some areas were wet until just a few years ago. Cores were drilled along that gradation, allowing them to reconstruct that 748 M tonnes [Mt] of carbon had already released, equal to 3 times the annual emissions by Spain.
'At the beginning it goes pretty fast, then it decays slowly,' said Marcé, noting that about half of the carbon dioxide is released in the first 15 years after a section of the lake is exposed. And nearly a fifth of emissions came from wind blowing sediment away, an aspect of drying that experts say hadn’t been adequately studied before.
Other areas around the world experiencing the "dry flux" phenomenon include "Lake Chad in western Africa, Bolivia’s Lake Poopó, and the Caspian Sea, the world’s largest inland body of water, expected to shrink by more than the entire area of the Aral Sea by century's end. Also the Salton Sea in California + Utah’s Great Salt Lake, which another recent study found is releasing over 4 Mt of CO2 annually.
This combined global carbon flux until now had not been incorporated into climate models. Clearly, this problem is figureoutable.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nnq2reoe4aaiyhhtsofqmdrz/bafkreigmfvmsguun7lgrbzcnp63cvzd7sft2yhwmujb33rtklgwd4rxujy)
![Extralarge electrical transformer. The National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) just released a report examining the U.S. supply chain for "large power transformers," or LPTs. "Large Power Transformer Supply Chain Gap Analysis and Domestic Content Strategies for Hydropower Rehabilitation focuses specifically on the unique challenges that hydropower facilities face when upgrading or replacing LPTs."
These are 'massive, custom-built devices [that] drastically increase the voltage of electricity generated by hydropower turbines for long-distance transmission.
There are 9 major issues, but sadly I have space for only a subset.
[1] U.S. LPT manufacturers rely 80% on imported raw materials like grain-oriented electrical steel + refined copper.
[2] Domestic manufacturing capabilities have grown in recent years but not enough to meet rising demand.
[3] The procurement timeline for a typical LPT (rated to handle 100 megavolt-amperes of electrical power) is approximately 2.5 to 3 years + up to 5 years for extra-high-voltage LPTs.
[4] Transformer costs have increased significantly since 2021, with prices rising approximately 80% in 2025. The cost of a single unit can be as high as $10 million.
[5] As these industries have been offshored over the last several decades, skilled workers have retired or moved to other industries. Thus, manufacturers and vendors of hydropower components struggle to find workers with more than 10 years of industry experience.
[6] Transport logistics are particularly complex for hydropower LPTs because many hydroelectric dams are difficult to reach due to rugged terrain or remote locations. There is a limited domestic fleet of specialized vehicles that can transport LPTs to these places, and routes require special permits for oversized loads.
I'll stop here, as the photo demonstrates this complexity all too well.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nnq2reoe4aaiyhhtsofqmdrz/bafkreibpa5samapemebaekqw7k2w27matricsdlddlklor55gdwhhccfve)
![Table of heat sources. To the rescue come "ground-source heat pumps... the most efficient heating and cooling technology available—even more so when they’re linked together in a neighborhood-scale thermal energy network (TEN)." In fact, if Northwest utilities took $2.2 billion that they recommend spending on new gas plants by 2045 to serve new heating loads and invest it in TENs, they could slash the region’s projected 2045 energy shortfall by as much as 10 gigawatts [GW].
"In 2025, consulting firm Energy + Environmental Economics (E3) released a high-profile study commissioned by Pacific Northwest utilities." The study forecast that the greater Northwest region faces a 9 GW resource adequacy shortfall by 2030 and a 26–46 GW shortfall by 2045.
Sightline has written about the study’s flaws, including its reliance on a single high-growth demand scenario; failure to evaluate data center flexibility and other lower-cost alternatives to building new gas plants; and overstatement of the region’s projected resource gap. Another flaw to the list: The study assumes that all buildings converting from fossil fuel to electric heating will install air-source heat pumps with inefficient electric resistance backup heaters that kick on during the coldest winter days. These 'toasters' account for as much as 30% of the power gap (8–12 GW) that the study’s authors estimate the region faces by 2045, depending on the pace of building electrification.
Frigid or sweltering weather doesn’t make ground-source heat pumps work harder. Instead, these systems harness the stable temperature of the earth, which, at just 10 ft below ground, remains at around 50°F year-round.
I often hear people boast that their methane or propane furnaces are 98% efficient. But a TEN is just that: 10 ft below ground + 10 times more efficient. And they don't convert a fossil fuel into greenhouse gases + other pollutants.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nnq2reoe4aaiyhhtsofqmdrz/bafkreigyhbqnfaftiak5n2wouwrdzr7swhtgc7aqlcjrli3do53v6zdu7q)
![Solar surpasses gas. I cannot emphasize enough that the Energy Information Agency [EIA] does not collect comparable information about rooftop solar, but empirically, we know that California’s rooftop solar capacity nearly matches its utility-scale capacity. In fact, data firm Ember tallied small- and large-scale solar production to show that all California solar nearly beat gas for the full year of 2024, but it hasn’t yet released results for the whole of 2025 on its U.S. Electricity Data Explorer.
"For years, natural gas has dominated electricity production in the climate-conscious Golden State, just as it has nationally." In both cases, this fossil fuel delivered ~40% of annual generation for much of the last decade.
"But that started to change in California as solar developers and rooftop installers added more and more capacity, and big batteries joined the party, too." In fact, utility-scale solar outperformed gas on 82% of the days in that five-month stretch in the California Independent System Operator’s wholesale market [CAISO]. "It's more striking given that the state still has more installed gas capacity (29 GW) than utility-scale solar capacity (25 gigawatts), and that this larger gas fleet can operate whenever, while solar is constrained to sunny times."
California’s gas fleet is in free fall: Generation dropped by 60% from the same time period in 2024, while solar generation increased by 21% in that same interval." Plus, "battery developers...built 16 GW of capacity in CAISO to charge up on solar power and then compete with gas after sundown."
"Meanwhile, wind imports recently jumped as the gigantic SunZia project came online [in New Mexico + Arizona], and that takes the fight to gas in the middle of the night, further depressing its output."
Solar + wind + geothermal + hydropower + storage are gonna win this World Cup for electricity in the Golden State, fourth largest economy in the world.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nnq2reoe4aaiyhhtsofqmdrz/bafkreib6sqjxez47szz4m7ry2s6ojo7mb6uf4mgrn3klclq2qfc33iffbm)
![British ship. Captain Arthur Phillip raised Union Jack + claimed continent for British crown." Arrival of this so-called First Fleet preceded a catastrophe that befell continent’s Indigenous people.
"More than a yr after first landing, “there [were] a significant number of Aboriginal people perishing in ghastly circumstances from what sounds like smallpox,” says Lynette Russell, historian at Monash University." Study in press, released last year as preprint, tracks how spread to argue First Fleet was only possible source. "Related preprint suggests the toll of smallpox + other impacts of colonization far greater than believed."
'Smallpox story was a way that British could say that there were no more of us in those early times, that everybody was wiped out,” says molecular biologist Shane Ingrey, whose Indigenous ancestors, the Dharawal, lived around Sydney Harbor + might have been watching as First Fleet landed.'
Smallpox is highly contagious + fast moving; victims either die in a matter of weeks after exposure, or else recover + are no longer contagious. 'British ships were at sea for months en route to Australia—“most effective quarantine situation imaginable,”—suggesting the disease, if present, would have burned itself out long before ships arrived.' But, the authors speculate the source may have been the bottles of smallpox scabs that physicians in the 18th century British navy carried to vaccinate against the disease.
"British colonists are known to have deliberately infected Indigenous groups in North America, where smallpox also took a catastrophic toll...though no [Australian] record exists of such a plan." Combining different methods, the authors of the second preprint propose that precolonial Australia hosted between 950,000 and 4.1 million people, likely about 2.3 M.
The findings also suggest contemporary Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander populations, which hover around 1 M people, haven’t yet returned to even half their preinvasion numbers.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nnq2reoe4aaiyhhtsofqmdrz/bafkreieyvc54k2qweu2qmzei52cx2zem5bag52qj2qbjqy77yymh6xuprq)
![US total energy use. The Btu unit is about the same as measuring the heat released by a wooden kitchen match. The nickname for the combination is simply "quads." Total American energy—not just electricity.
Over the 250-year history of our nation, energy consumption has evolved from wood use in the 18th and 19th centuries to today’s use of modern renewables, hydropower, geothermal, hydrocarbons, and nuclear technology. "In 2025, total energy used in the United States was 96 quadrillion British thermal units (quads), up 2% from 2024, but below 2007’s record 99 quads."
Petroleum was the most-used energy source last year, followed closely by fossil methane + propane gases. Use of renewables + coal + nuclear energy each made up about 9% of total energy use. "As a share of total energy consumption in the United States, wood was the most-consumed source of energy early in our history." It is a tiny part of the 'other' category now. [But I still know people who heat or even cook with wood or biofuels].
Next, "fossil fuels emerged as the largest share of energy, starting with the use of coal, which expanded rapidly." With the more recent emergence of nuclear power + forms of renewable energy such as wind + solar, the total share of energy generation from fossil fuels decreased. "However, as of 2025, fossil fuels still accounted for the vast majority of energy consumed in the United States, accounting for 82% of energy consumed."
Staring at that stark number—82%—we must all realize that to repair the climate we have our work cut out for us. Coal is declining in spite of the misguided efforts by the White House. Methane + propane must be staunchly ratcheted down as well. Petroleum is the other large target. So, let's hop to it.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nnq2reoe4aaiyhhtsofqmdrz/bafkreice4vclcue4u5heb43cijpzibunsjb2jctrtf4mikkjeaehsgivjm)
![Satellite streaks. Olivier Hainaut, astronomer at the European Southern Observatory [ESO], examined 2 recent commercial proposals.
"In 2025, Reflect Orbital sought permission from Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to launch test satellite carrying an 18-m-wide reflector that would beam sunlight onto nighttime Earth." Company’s plans to launch 50,000 reflectors to extend operating hours of solar arrays, mines, emergency responders with artificial daylight.
"Prime astronomy sites such as ESO’s Paranal Observatory in Chile aim to keep light pollution below 1% of natural night-sky brightness." Fleet of 5,000 reflectors would raise sky brightness worldwide by up to 30%; 50,000 craft would boost it as much as 300%.
'Reflect Orbital says it will steer its 5-km-wide beams, 4-fold brighter than full Moon, away from observatories.' But even outside the beam each of the reflectors would shine as bright as Venus, the brightest object after the Moon.
Ever since SpaceX launched the Starlink internet satellites in 2019, astronomers have worked with companies to reduce impact of these so-called satellite megaconstellations. "SpaceX has made efforts to dim the reflectivity of its Starlink satellites, even as the constellation has grown." (More than 10,000 Starlinks are already in orbit and the company is planning 32,000 more.)
"Constellation of 1 million SpaceX data centers would make satellite trails in telescope images almost unavoidable for most of the night...especially for wide-viewing instruments such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory in Chile.'
ESO + other bodies working with International Astronomical Union to persuade satellite operators to lessen impact of their constellations, + through UN to draw up international norms countries can translate into national laws.
Wouldn't adding sunlight that should miss Earth incrementally speed up global warming? Contact the FCC at ecfs@fcc.gov with header phrase "get form," + email address in the body, as I just did.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nnq2reoe4aaiyhhtsofqmdrz/bafkreiatl4vthmsktumohmou2wsn4xrsjxhjblpark4h7icd4gqocjbsya)
![Graph of declining ocean fish. "The practice was controversial in the United Kingdom, where some critics claimed that the new trawlers were reducing fish stocks and damaging habitats."
Marine conservation biologist Callum Roberts of the University of York in the United Kingdom decided to analyze the historical data. "To adjust the catch data for the increasingly powerful and sophisticated fishing boats, Roberts and colleagues used boat registration records to calculate the overall power of the British fleet." The researchers expressed ship 'power' in units equivalent to the catching power of one sail-powered trawler in the 1880s, calculating the Landings Per Unit of fishing Power (LPUP).
"From 1889 until 1914, LPUP dropped sharply, from more than 60 tons to less than 20 tons." The decrease in fishing during World War I allowed a recovery of fish stocks, and LPUP rebounded briefly to 30 tons in 1918. "Between WWI and the 1950s, British vessels began fishing farther from home, off the coast of West Africa and in the Arctic...[allowing] the rate of fish caught by British vessels to increase again, to about 50 tons in 1956." But with continued exploitation, LPUP nose-dived, to about 5 tons in 1980, the team reports online this week in Nature Communications.
"After 1983, the Common Fisheries Policy of the European Union set strict new limits on where and how much British vessels could fish, but stocks have not recovered."
Today it takes 17 times as much fishing power to land a fish as it did in 1889, an LPUP of 3.4.
The implications are clear, overfishing, yes, but also marine warming, loss of coral reefs as incubators, plastic + other pollution, acidification, now looming deoxygenation. Climate change + impoverishment of marine ecosystems. Pity the poor fish + the fisherfolk.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nnq2reoe4aaiyhhtsofqmdrz/bafkreie62m2xkgzaugofqlzv7jh345knob3vantgppd45mssbnaeuya46a)
![Brazilian electricity sectors. [Recall that a gigawatt or GW is equivalent to the instantaneous or power rating of a typical nuclear power plant.]. "The installed capacity grew from 11,000 MW in 1970 with an average yearly growth of 5.8% per year."
Impressively, Brazil has the largest capacity for water storage in the world, based largely on hydroelectricity generation capacity, which meets over 60% of its electricity demand. "The national grid runs at 60 Hz, just like in the US, and is powered 83% from renewable sources." This dependence on hydropower makes Brazil vulnerable to power supply shortages in drought years, as was demonstrated by the 2001–2002 energy crisis.
"In 2023, the output of Brazil's electricity system, serving over 88 million consumers, exceeded that of all other South American nations combined." Anticipated investments surpassing $100 billion by 2029 aim to expand utility-scale + distributed generation, alongside transmission + distribution projects. "The National Interconnected System (SIN) comprises the electricity companies in the South, South-East, Center-West, North-East and part of the North region." Only 3.4% of the country's electricity production is located outside the SIN, in small isolated systems located mainly in the Amazonian region.
Fascinating country in so many ways. From my background in infectious disease, problems with zika, dengue fever, malaria. But the specter of drought hangs over the Amazon + Brazil's power sector, as in many areas of the world. Since Brazil is about 92% tropical, it seems to me they should diversify further into solar + storage.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nnq2reoe4aaiyhhtsofqmdrz/bafkreibuenqes75mgwdfs7yb4myf6cpcz4t5duxcaiyeumcabrj5deuakq)
![Wasp. “But the insect species discovered so far may represent just a fraction of the total crawling, flying, and burrowing around the planet, according to a new study published today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.” Using statistical methods borrowed from epidemiologists, a team of entomologists estimates there may be as many as 20 million insect species on our planet—more than three times the previous estimate.
“Over the past 3 centuries, biologists have described about 1 million insect species, but finding and describing them all would be a daunting—if not impossible—task.” However, a subfamily of parasitoid wasps known as Microgastrinae, which infamously lay their eggs inside living caterpillars, are extremely well-studied. “Over the past several years, scientists conducting surveys of flying insects in the park have identified 388 species of Microgastrinae.”
Independently, when scientists surveyed caterpillars that had been parasitized within the park, they identified only 889 wasp species. With almost no overlap, the mismatch between the 2 studies allowed a statistical estimate of a whopping 2394 Microgastrinae species. Applying this as a multiple to all 53,945 known insect species within Guanacaste suggests the park is actually home to 332,846 insect species, most of which have gone unobserved.
“The researchers then scaled this number globally using another diverse group of organisms: trees…[with] 1200 [to] 1500 tree species within Guanacaste and about 73,000 on Earth, meaning the park contains between 1.6% and 2.1% of global tree diversity.” If the same percentage holds true for insects, then there’s anywhere between 13.3 million and 24.7 million insect species on Earth, with a safe middle-of-the-road estimate of 20.3 M species.
While you may think this epidemiological calculation represents biodiversity run riot, recall that many insect species are in decline from pesticides + habitat loss + climate change. Do not be sanguine.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nnq2reoe4aaiyhhtsofqmdrz/bafkreib34yrzdpfflrri6ftmdl22bh42xxvn3dftb2p2ytiyted5gzyvsi)
![Rising heat pump sales in US. Now they are rounding the corner on air-conditioning, too + may well pass on the curve. "In 2025, sales of the appliances were basically tied—and heat pumps even beat air conditioners in September, a first.
"Compared with the same period last year, heat pump sales are up by about 1%, while AC sales are down by nearly 8%, according to data from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute, a trade group." They’ve long been popular in more moderate climates, like the U.S. South, but in recent years their cold-weather performance has improved, and they’ve caught on in more frigid regions, too. "Heating is one of the largest sources of carbon emissions in the country, and heat pumps, which are two to four times more efficient than fossil-fueled systems, offer a much cleaner way to keep a space warm."
The fact that they also cool homes is a climate benefit in its own right, as extreme heat makes air-conditioning a necessity rather than a luxury. "Many states, municipalities, and utilities have incentivized the adoption of the energy-efficient, zero-emissions technology." These subsidies may come in the form of direct rebates, or may manifest in wonkier [ways], like pro-electric building codes or preferential electricity rates for homes with heat pumps.
"For a few years, the federal government offered incentives for the appliances, too, but...Trump and congressional Republicans repealed those last year."
Personally, we have been living with a heat pump for 8 yrs, and our house takes wonderful care of us + the planet at the same time. You may prefer to wager on the horses, but 'heat + cold pumps' are a better bet by far.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nnq2reoe4aaiyhhtsofqmdrz/bafkreibtezld4iohizojvfysz6xcfnqzs4fiocbz4j5payw224su7dqn6u)
![Green sea turtle ascending to surface. Every mating season, these intrepid reptiles leave their feeding grounds along the coast of Brazil and journey > 2000 km across the sea to lay their eggs on this tiny, remote island. 'How, Darwin later mused in a letter to Nature, did the animals find their way to a “speck of land in the midst of the great Atlantic Ocean?”'
Decades later, scientists uncovered convincing evidence that sea turtles can sense components of Earth’s geomagnetic field. 'Kenneth Lohmann, a marine biologist at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill ...[and] his team previously conducted laboratory studies demonstrating turtles can sense the strength of geomagnetic fields as well as their angle relative to the surface of Earth—potentially providing migrating turtles with a “bicoordinate” geomagnetic map of their surroundings.'
Just as wind can blow a bird off its flight path, ocean currents may divert a migrating turtle from its intended course. Apparently, sea turtles have only “an approximate idea of where they are and where they’re going.” Annual variations in magnetic field intensity + inclination, changing currents + the potential survival value of finding a new island all factor into the value of an imperfect navigation system.
The updated tracking devices have a compass sensor that measures the direction a turtle is facing with respect to true north + a satellite transmitter that relays information about the animal’s location—and correct heading for Ascension—to the Argos satellite system, which is equipped to receive data from around the globe. The real beauty of the system is the remarkable speed with which it transmits data—essential when tracking an animal that spends most of its time beneath the waves, surfacing only briefly to catch its breath before diving down again. “You’ve only got a fraction of 1 second.”
Of course, when I'm swimming I take pretty quick breaths as well.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nnq2reoe4aaiyhhtsofqmdrz/bafkreibgnccfbwk2kucfeaxym3mub42ibjo4pcm5fjwvoegcvuotqc6lxm)
![Photo of Max Planck. "In early May, Yves Gingras, a historian of physics at the University of Quebec (UQ) at Montreal, was browsing Retraction Watch, a website that catalogs fraud, data manipulation, and other scientific sins."
Impossibly, the fourth name on the small subset of Nobel laureates...was a legendary pioneer of quantum mechanics + the 1918 Nobel laureate in physics. "Gingras had never heard a whiff of scandal about Planck, who was almost as widely revered for his character as his physics." In fact, in 1933 he bravely confronted Adolf Hitler over Nazi Germany’s discriminatory laws against Jews.
"The papers, both quietly retracted in 2011, originally appeared in the early 1940s in Naturwissenschaften, a German journal now owned by publishing giant Springer Nature." His philosophical essay from 1942 titled “Sinn und Grenzen der exakten Wissenschaft” (“Meaning and Limits of Exact Science”), addressed how to achieve certainty in scientific knowledge, had also appeared in two other journals and been reprinted twice in books. "Repackaging the same work multiple times [nowadays] is considered “self-plagiarism” and frowned upon today—the practice produces copyright conflicts and inflates scholars’ publication records."
The Naturwissenschaften site gives “copyright violation” as the reason for the retraction. "Yet publishing identical material in multiple journals was widespread before the internet...the practice was especially common for luminaries like Planck."
Gingras was especially incensed that Springer Nature deviated from the normal practice of merely slapping the word RETRACTED across the digital version of the paper while still allowing scholars to read the text. Instead, the publisher posted a blank white page with the cryptic phrase, “This article has been withdrawn due to article violation.”
Springer Nature is nevertheless still selling the empty PDF for $39.95.
Goldarnit, if that don't beat all, I say—with fists clenched.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nnq2reoe4aaiyhhtsofqmdrz/bafkreibilgml7n2tr36r5n7yktm6l4l7yynhtibffveklheekznqn7zsqa)
![Bifacial solar array. Late last year the company took steps to shield its US factories from the President’s on-again, off-again trade wars, and now they are just weeks away from shipping new high-performance solar modules to eager buyers throughout the world—including, presumably, the US.
Not for rooftop solar though, as 'the company’s new Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact or TOPCon 3.0 high-power-density photovoltaic module is aimed at the utility-scale solar power plant market.'
"While Trump’s war on solar is among the factors putting a crimp on the small scale, residential solar industry of late, high-demand energy stakeholders are still gobbling up the clean kilowatts at a rapidfire pace." To ease its entry, "Canadian Solar [sized the modules at] the 2382 × 1134 × 30 millimeter industry-wide standard, coupled with an impressive output of up to 670 Wp."
Among other advantages cited by Canadian Solar, the new module is designed for bifaciality, meaning that it can absorb and convert light hitting both sides of the panel. "Bifacial panels can be set in an upright position rather than the more familiar angled alignment, enabling them to double as fencing on farmland." Canadian Solar also notes that the new module is purpose-built to function efficiently in hotter climates, which is another opportunity springboard for solar developers.
Spectacularly, "its hot-climate design contributes to a low degradation rate, arriving at an output of more than 88.85% even after 30 years of operation." As for its US factories, in its Q1 report this year Canadian Solar highlighted the forthcoming expansion of its existing 5-gigawatt solar module factory in Texas, reaching 10 GW by years-end.
Besides evading the slings + arrows of a deranged president—a vertical orientation of modules makes them proof against hailstorms.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nnq2reoe4aaiyhhtsofqmdrz/bafkreibmdn2ruxm2n3icg5gm7y27qetuhiuohgueqd7jww3cuoyx4whqae)
![Supermajority US adults skeptical. "If the government is lured into taking an ownership stake in AI companies, it will be walking into a trap." The first clue is that the CEO of the most prominent AI company, OpenAI, proposed the idea to Trump early last year. Why would the top executive of the best-known AI company offer to dilute his wealth and the wealth of his shareholders to give the government a share? "Why would that CEO want the government looking over his shoulder as he runs his company?"
Unless of course he knows he is going to need a bailout. When a duplicitous CEO + a transactional, self-interested president shake hands—then the rest of us can look forward to paying the bill. Kurt Cobb argues there are 2 reasons for this outcome.
First, "the AI industry has convinced lawmakers and the current administration that AI is somehow the future of technology and therefore the industry (as opposed to the technology) cannot fail."
Second, "the AI industry's capital expenditures are the main thing driving the economy and the stock market and a bust among major industry players (again, as opposed to the technology) would lead to too much pain in pocketbooks and portfolios." Remember the phrase—'too big to fail?'
"Governments are actually very poor at making financial investment decisions, in part, because they are not set up for that." When the current AI bubble bursts, the federal government [could] be tempted to throw good money after bad to bail out its investment since the government has something private industry lacks, the power to tax and the ability to print money as needed.
"The entire global software industry had revenues of about $719 billion in 2025...for products that presumably work and have a marginal distribution cost close to zero." Aside from stringent regulation, I share Cobb's skepticism about the government getting any closer to AI than with a 10-foot pole.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nnq2reoe4aaiyhhtsofqmdrz/bafkreiafpmznon2xacdegyik7j5a7svgag3uijqonsnyyy3j5vdwsvrnnu)
![Obliteration of subsidies supporting rooftop solar. “Nearly one year ago,…Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act into law and eliminated a 30% federal tax credit for rooftop solar systems…[and] battery backup systems, which homeowners increasingly pair with photovoltaics.” This was a major blow to an industry that was already struggling because of high interest rates, tariffs, and [an idiotic] seismic policy change in California, the state that has led the nation on rooftop solar adoption.”
People who buy rooftop solar systems are mainly looking for relief from high utility bills, and solar installations are already more expensive in the U.S. than in many other countries. “Residential solar costs $2.58 per watt, on average, compared with around $1 per watt in Australia, a global leader in the space.”
Still, there are some glimmers of hope. “In California, the residential solar market is set to rebound this year and grow by 17% from last year.”
Meanwhile, Florida, the No. 2 state [Texas is No. 1] for rooftop solar, is set to see its installations grow by a staggering 62% in 2026. “Some combination of ample sun, high awareness of solar, and rising utility bills has enabled the clean energy tech to keep growing even though a significant slice of homeowners already have their own panels.”
Meanwhile, although its potential is much more modest, a far smaller and more accessible form of residential solar is sweeping the nation: balcony solar. “They can’t deliver the same wattage as a classic rooftop setup, but they’re relatively cheap and available to renters—not just homeowners.”
There is a realistic possibility that balcony solar will raise awareness, make homegrown solar available to renters, + this parallel boom may help offset the bust for rooftop arrays.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nnq2reoe4aaiyhhtsofqmdrz/bafkreibqgoau6gkionoeosbkzuc6suiddgdynt5yaixh5qsuj3enytr5yq)
![Russia denying fuel shortages. "Several Russian regions have been experiencing fuel shortages as Ukraine hits Russian oil refineries." Last week, the Moscow Times reported that some gasoline stations in Moscow and regions in northern Russia have started to cap fuel purchases per driver, in a move to prevent panic buying. Having no doubt received the memo, Alexander Drozdenko, governor of the northwestern Leningrad region, said this week that "Supplies are being delivered according to plan, there are no shortages."
Meanwhile, earlier this month Russia admitted for the first time that its crude oil production is falling. Russia's crude oil production has declined since the beginning of the year as a number of local refineries are under [love the delicate phrasing here] unscheduled repairs and maintenance, Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said, in the first public acknowledgement from Moscow that its output is flailing. "Russia is preparing to sharply reduce crude oil exports this month as mounting refinery disruptions, fuel shortages, and Ukraine's bombing campaign force Moscow to divert more barrels into the domestic market."
Exports from Russia's western ports of Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk are expected to fall to roughly 1.7 million barrels per day [Mbpd] in June from 2.5 million bpd in May, according to Reuters calculations based on preliminary industry and trading data.
In my view, the US needs to reverse its rejection of Zelensky + Ukraine, + save a lot more of their country, including Crimea.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nnq2reoe4aaiyhhtsofqmdrz/bafkreialktmlvdchay73oiufv6m64svfkoqpujlqtpbogjsiyqnmaqmlze)
![Industrial water-source heat pump [WSHP]. “First, the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 spiked liquefied natural gas prices, affecting manufacturers around the world and even forcing factory shutdowns in Pakistan and Bangladesh.” More recently [plus in ongoing fashion in spite of pronouncements], the U.S.-Israel–led war in Iran has choked the flow of oil + gas through the Strait of Hormuz, driving up costs yet again for plants in Europe, Asia, + beyond.
“Existing and emerging technologies—such as huge heat pumps, thermal batteries, electric-resistance heaters, induction tech, and plasma-based systems—that are able to run on an increasingly clean grid have vast potential to reduce companies’ fossil-fuel exposure.”
“The industries that electrify fastest will stop being victims of the next crisis,” said Jan Rosenow, professor of energy and climate policy at Oxford and co-author of the report. “Every unit of fossil fuel eliminated from an industrial process is a unit that can no longer be held hostage by a pipeline shutdown, a strait closure, or a price spike.” Ancillary benefits are obvious: ‘slashing planet-warming emissions, clearing smoggy skies, and saving lives in communities downwind of factories.’ Even among people who do see the urgency of decarbonizing a sector that accounts for nearly a third of global CO2 emissions, the majority assume the solution is not electrons…but molecules we can burn: biomass, biogas, + clean hydrogen.
Roughly 85% of industrial energy demand could be electrified by 2050—and upwards of 90% in the long term—with existing and emerging electric tech. Certainly no one is naive enough to think there will not be energy shocks in the future. And I suspect the near future.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nnq2reoe4aaiyhhtsofqmdrz/bafkreibr4g67b7tf3gy3fgxkpc3r7t563hbclldt3ynhiz57ft6e3lzgza)
![Mangrove forest at low tide. Decades of losses largely offset by regrowth, increasing temperatures, + expansion. "The study, based on four decades of satellite data and published in the journal Science, finds that mangrove forests worldwide are no longer in net decline and are now growing overall."
After decades of loss driven by deforestation and coastal development, mangroves are expanding in many regions, largely through natural regeneration and expansion into newly formed coastal areas. "Louisiana has also seen an overall increase in mangroves over the past four decades, underscoring the broader regional shift. "Findings suggest a more hopeful trajectory for these ecosystems, which play a critical role in protecting coastlines, supporting fisheries and storing carbon."
“After decades of loss, we’re finally seeing a global turning point for mangroves,” said Zhen Zhang, a postdoctoral scholar at Tulane University School of Science and Engineering and lead author. 'Mangrove forests declined through much of the late 20th century, losing nearly 2,900 square kilometers between the 1980s and 2010, but during the past 16 years, gains have outpaced losses.' By 2023, mangrove areas had rebounded, resulting in only about a 1% net decline over the entire four-decade period—a much smaller loss than previously estimated. "The recovery is being driven by a combination of restoration efforts and natural processes."
The broader concern however is that sea level rise [SLR] may outpace the restoration, leaving them to drown from high water + intense storms. My wife + I recall with great affection a guided trip into the mangroves of El Salvador several years ago.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nnq2reoe4aaiyhhtsofqmdrz/bafkreid5gseoggq2x3hwtxo45inqk2izn3vts6ztyyshejmyakgxxipob4)
![Solar eclipsing coal. "While gas and nuclear plants still lead the country’s energy mix, solar contributed 12.8% of the nation’s electrons in May, according to an analysis of government data by Ember, an energy think tank." Coal, meanwhile, provided just 12.2%. And can you guess which is heading up + which is heading down from here?
"Just five years ago, solar was less than half of its current levels and coal was at 20%" The turnaround comes even as political headwinds have shifted against renewable energy. “From Texas to California, markets across the U.S. are betting on solar to meet rising power needs.”
It was only last summer that Congress passed the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” which rolled back enormous swaths of former President Joe Biden’s landmark climate change legislation, the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. And Trump has actively sought to hinder renewable energy development, even offering to pay at least one oil company $1 billion to stop building its offshore wind projects [currently being thwarted by litigation].
"The latest electricity data comes the same month that the Trump administration announced $700 million in funding for investments in the coal industry." Ironically, it included money for what would be the country’s first new coal-fired power plants in 13 years—sourced from funds previously dedicated to reducing the country’s dependence on fossil fuels, not deepening it. “Spending $700 million to bail out the coal industry is like throwing a lifeline to a ship that has already sunk,” said Lena Moffitt, executive director of the environmental group Evergreen Action. And Patrick Drupp, director of climate policy at the Sierra Club, agrees reducing dependence of legacy fossil, “that's good for people’s wallets, it’s good for their health, it’s good for the planet.”
The steady downward trend over the last several years suggests that even all the president’s men might not be able to put the coal industry back together again.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nnq2reoe4aaiyhhtsofqmdrz/bafkreib2c4tjaq6eiolsljpjogo7wocxcqxfuafno3nermmkkocwsjlb24)
![Graphic demonstrating accelerating climate deterioration. "The public narrative sometimes treats 1.5°C or 2°C of heating (above the pre-industrial average) like cliff edges, as if crossing them triggers a plunge into global disaster."
As the late climate scientist Stephen Schneider put it: “The ‘end of the world’ or ‘good for you’ are the two least likely among the spectrum of potential climate outcomes.” The graphic was inspired by US climate scientist Kate Marvel, who in 2018 wrote in Scientific American: ‘Climate change isn't a cliff we fall off, but a slope we slide down.' That said,"some parts of the Earth system—including the Greenland ice sheet, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and ecosystems such as the Amazon rainforest and coral reef systems—are likely to contain critical thresholds beyond which change becomes self-perpetuating and fiendishly difficult or impossible to reverse on timescales relevant to humans."
"As climate scientist Zeke Hausfather has noted, many of the most dangerous tipping points are still avoidable." Fortunately, societies can also reach positive tipping points. "Public norms, technologies and policies can spread through self-amplifying feedbacks of their own, solar power, EVs, net zero targets and climate laws are already following this pattern." Choices governments and societies make now can reduce future risks by limiting the roughly 115 million [net] tonnes [Mt] of CO2 emitted into the atmosphere every day.
As Marvel phrased it, “Your energy bills are rising because they’re forcing you to pay for millions of years old sunlight instead of today’s.” You don't have to continue this inane insanity, burning gas + diesel instead of running on sunlight.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nnq2reoe4aaiyhhtsofqmdrz/bafkreif4q3dgkk2fbx22sh5dhezigqxqocu6lhoy6sfwzgmcccpopjw37y)
![Chart of generation sector growth. However, "by optimizing solar-wind deployment, storage capacity, and trans-regional transmission, the solar-wind penetration could be achieved using only 29.4% of the highest potential, with a 15.6% reduction in initial investment compared to a strategy without interconnection."
Global interconnection improves energy efficiency, mitigates the variability of renewable energy, promotes energy availability. "Importantly, [an] interconnected system shows remarkable resilience to climate extremes, generation outages, transmission disruptions, and geopolitical conflicts." Central to this shift towards a decarbonized future is the accelerated integration of renewable energy sources and the augmented use efficiency of their generation.
"Stakeholders have explored myriad avenues for a sustainable energy transition, relying primarily on the expansive deployment of PV and wind plants." While hydropower remains a key non-biomass renewable energy source, its large-scale expansion is constrained by geographic + environmental factors. "Currently, regional power systems incorporating intermittent energy sources are heavily reliant on energy storage systems and flexible generation sources, such as hydropower [add geothermal here], for peak shaving and load leveling amidst generation-demand mismatches." This strategy, however, faces unaffordable investments in establishing and maintaining storage infrastructure + the risk of power supply disruptions, particularly during extreme weather.
Personally, I would argue this last point, as I believe that widely distributed solar generation + storage will be major contributors. And I share many people's skepticism that in the currently fractious geopolitical extensive interregional interconnection will be accomplished in time, especially in my home country of America.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nnq2reoe4aaiyhhtsofqmdrz/bafkreieczztqzbct7znezqdb5fwwsxus4buemhsrqztz2wsvbvz5osfd2e)
![Small island nation vulnerability. Yes, yes, "heatwaves and record-breaking temperatures were in the headlines in May—South Asia experienced pre-monsoon high temperatures (up to 47°C = 118ºF in India), while Europe experienced peak summer temperatures before summer had officially arrived." But economic realities deserve attention as well.
"A recent synthesis report finds that macroeconomic effects are hard to quantify but are growing rapidly, with people in low- and lower-middle-income countries already 4–12% poorer in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita from temperature changes and sea-level rise, and projections of decreases in income for the average person [worldwide] of 3–15% by 2050." Numbers like this make the case for mitigation and adaption to minimize impacts, and it is important that governments act now to better prepare. "While nations all work on their own scale, international planning centres around the annual climate COP, held late in the year."
This year will see the first climate COP with 2 countries sharing responsibility of the presidency—Türkiye as the host nation, with the event being held in Antalya, and president-designate, while Australia takes the role of president of negotiations. "The nominated presidents have released a joint statement on their ambitions for the event, with a partnering of Australia with Pacific Island nations and the appointment of three Pacific Climate Envoys—these nations are at the forefront of climate impacts and the Small Island Developing States (SIDS) were the driving force in the shift in ambition from limiting warming to 2°C to 1.5°C in the Paris negotiations."
In the last several yrs climate folks have moved toward a consensus that since the annual carbon emissions have continued to rise, sadly but inarguably I think we have to start planning for at least 2ºC of warming.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nnq2reoe4aaiyhhtsofqmdrz/bafkreib4swvk4lzapqbm3p7ju7h4tegpb2c7jrxa5dsitffe36tq2vckhy)
![Installing a residential heat pump. "The guidance, dated May 29 and announced in a news release on June 1, covers the $4.3 billion Home Owner Managing Energy Savings, or HOMES, program and the $4.5 billion High-Efficiency Electric Home Rebate, or HEEHR, program, with additional guidance for Indian tribes participating in HEEHR."
HOMES program provides up to $8,000 for households to make energy-efficient upgrades, such as insulation, air sealing, heating + cooling equipment, water heaters, duct sealing, appliances + lighting, with the proviso that they must reduce energy use by at least 20% to be eligible. "The HEEHR program provides up to $14,000 in rebates per household, which retailers and contractors can offer at the point of sale, and can be used for qualifying efficient electric equipment and appliances."
Congress and the Biden administration had designed the programs to ensure that low-income + other disadvantaged households received a significant share of the benefits. "The new guidance is changing this focus, citing...administration opposition to considering diversity, equity, and inclusion [DEI] in federal spending and the elimination of Biden’s Justice40 environmental justice initiative." This destroys the programs’ support for shifting from legacy fuels to electricity for home heating.
“It’s a very standard playbook to incentivize fossil fuel companies and provide a lifeline to them,” said Srinidhi Sampath Kumar, director of the Sierra Club’s clean heat campaign, about the limits on fuel switching.
The US is now the world's largest exporter of liquified natural gas [LNG], which exposes American consumers to the pricing in international markets. This shows how the Iran war is infiltrating insidiously into people's lives + homes.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nnq2reoe4aaiyhhtsofqmdrz/bafkreid6rubpivtgehml4mdptpmbr4d6batc22zxgpj4whnucmgpnf3dne)
![Pie chart of probability distribution of hurricanes. "June 1st [marked] the official start to the Atlantic hurricane season, and it’s likely to be a below-normal season, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration." With a strong El Niño likely in the works, the forecast calls for a 55% chance of a below-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of an above-average season.
As of May 21st, NOAA was forecasting between eight and 14 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which three to six could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), and of those hurricanes, one to three could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher).
"When a positive phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, meaning El Niño, occurs, the tropical Pacific has warmer-than-average temperatures." While the oceanic warming is centered in the eastern tropical Pacific, El Niño has worldwide impacts. "One reason we know that a strong El Niño is likely to develop is that the tropical Pacific waters have warmed significantly in recent months; between January and May, surface water temperatures have increased by about 5ºF = 3ºC." Also, there have been periods of unusually strong westerly winds pushing warm water eastward through the tropical Pacific.
"Seasonal forecast models agree that El Niño is likely to peak in the strong to very strong range by late 2026 or early 2027." El Niño increases the number of tropical systems in the tropical Pacific by decreasing wind shear (a change in winds across the upper levels of the atmosphere).
"In the Atlantic, the opposite occurs: During El Niño events, wind shear increases, which often does not allow a tropical system to continue its building cycle." With these uncertainties, just be ready to batten down the hatches + hold on to your hat.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nnq2reoe4aaiyhhtsofqmdrz/bafkreihznjzgxhxagrx6i6mi745kejcvxogcromosb6rlp6ppxi7oaavmy)
![Contaminated well water. "Not many gave a second thought to trucks spraying a cocktail of blood, urine, water, and other slaughterhouse refuse over local farmland." But few wanted to accuse the company of wrongdoing, given that it employs over 425 people—about as many people in all of Loganton—and by some estimates processes 10% of the state’s beef.
Nicholas slaughters about 1,000 cattle each day, according to the lawsuit, and has been the biggest business in a town so small it doesn’t have a traffic light. And truth be told, "many farms are eager to receive the waste as a more affordable way of fertilizing fields."
Leigey, a single mother who works three jobs, decided she had to speak up, for herself, her family, and her neighbors. She stated, “I don’t feel like I should have to be emotionally, mentally, financially, and physically exhausted because some millionaire wants to dump blood on fields because it’s a cheap way to dispose of it. It’s not right.” Leigey and three others who joined her in suing Nicholas Meat were awarded $145,000, a surprising victory in a state where lenient right-to-farm laws make such cases difficult to win.
“There is a place for it, especially as a replacement for synthetic fertilizers,” said Michael Kovach, president of the [traditionally conservative] Pennsylvania Farmers Union. "The lawsuit estimated that Nicholas Meat produces at least 200,000 gallons a day, with the capacity to store 1 million gallons on-site and another 4.3 million elsewhere."
For now, Pennsylvania does not require a permit to spread "food processing residuals," which includes everything from potato skins and dairy waste to slaughterhouse remains. Kurt Vonnegut, author of Slaughterhouse Five, who died almost a decade ago, is not around to write another novel.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nnq2reoe4aaiyhhtsofqmdrz/bafkreih6strwynow7wt3drxd6nojmg5ejk7irs7zaufeudxvavsd5mmw5e)
![Increasing rate of increased temperature. “The years 2023–2024 have recorded the highest global temperatures ever observed on Earth, due to the combined effects of human-induced global warming and an El Niño event.” This warming surpassed previous records by 0.2°–0.4°C during the latter half of 2023 and the first half of 2024—an unprecedented margin on a global scale.
These 4 researchers analyzed “accelerated global warming over 1981–2025 using satellite-derived lower-tropospheric temperature (TLT) data and examine its relationship to the pronounced warming observed during 2023–2024.” To reduce uncertainty and improve the robustness of acceleration detection, an adjusted TLT record is constructed by removing ENSO- and aerosol-related variability. [This last phrase is key, mathematically taking out the effects of El Niño + atmospheric particles such as clouds + combustion-related carbon black soot from the burning of fossil fuels + biofuels].
“This adjustment reduces the magnitude of TLT annual variability by nearly 50%, which greatly increases the robustness and reliability of acceleration detection.” With the adjusted TLT, statistically significant warming trends of up to 0.482 ± 0.113°C decade⁻¹ are found from 2015 onward across all satellite and reanalysis datasets examined in this study, representing an increase of approximately four to five times relative to the pre-2015 period.
Unfortunately, “this large trend, however, is only a conservative estimate.” At the upper end, statistically significant acceleration rates of up to 0.48 ± 0.12°C decade⁻² are inferred near 2024, indicating that the recent temperature jumps are part of an ongoing acceleration amplified by the El Niño event.
Bottom line: “projections based on the accelerated trend estimates suggest the potential for an additional 0.5–1.0°C of warming within the next decade.”
So, read at your own risk; maintain enough skepticism to wait for further corroboration in the climate literature.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nnq2reoe4aaiyhhtsofqmdrz/bafkreiemwlx5345lm4dgvqk34xvki6qoqhbxqwfhrqxd67bur5olbabwty)
![Unnecessary Indian coal burner back in 2022. "But one of those plants in Indiana hasn’t operated in months and won’t be able to until costly repairs are completed—undermining federal officials’ claims that their mandates will make energy more affordable and are needed to avoid imminent blackouts."
The administration first ordered Indiana’s R.M. Schahfer coal plant to continue running in December, just a week before its scheduled closure date and after regulators had already determined that the polluting plant was not needed to keep the region’s lights on. "That 90-day emergency must-run order was reupped on March 23."
Facility owner Northern Indiana Public Service Co. (NIPSCO) told regional grid operators at their May 19 hearing on summer electricity reliability that the coal plant has been offline for repairs since the end of February and is not expected to start running again until this fall. "The utility added that even without that energy, it is well positioned to meet power demand this summer, in large part thanks to new wind, solar, and batteries."
"The administration is expected to issue [its third] 90-day must-run order at Schahfer when the current one expires on June 21." But as NIPSCO has made clear, the coal plant won’t be able to run at all for the entirety of that three-month mandate. "Households and businesses will bear the financial brunt of propping up coal plants, which are more expensive to operate than newer gas plants and renewable energy paired with batteries."
"In total...Trump’s Department of Energy has ordered seven fossil-fueled plants [1 of them in my home state of Washington] in the U.S. to run past their retirement dates—sometimes against the wishes of the plant owners themselves—in an unprecedented flex of authority under Section 202(c) of the Federal Power Act." This sort of imbecilic irrationality is how civilizations fail.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nnq2reoe4aaiyhhtsofqmdrz/bafkreifl6wsuwqm3rv6cjseninssqm3cbpp3g4czgbb4elcz463xldbece)
![AI depiction of residential energy storage. "A large increase in the amount of battery energy storage systems [BESS] in Australia will permit some residential and small business owners to pay about 10% less for electricity in the coming year."
"Batteries have been displacing more expensive gas and hydro in the evenings, and we’ve just seen flatter prices through the whole day." In addition to the large number of new grid-scale BESS installations all across Australia, in the last year, more than 415,000 residential storage batteries have been added to Australian homes—roughly 1 battery for every 25 houses. “The role of gas used to be in the evening to meet the evening peak and that came at a cost, because gas is not a cheap fuel [also, methane contributes about 30% of global warming]. but more and more every day, it is batteries that are surging into the market at 6 pm,” Tennant Reed, the climate change and energy director for the Australian Industry Group, told The Guardian."
Batteries are an essential component of renewable energy technology. They are what allow solar and wind power to be “dispatchable,” which, in the world of grid-scale electricity, means that when the need arises, electrons will be available. 'This gives the lie to the trope by fossil fuel apologists that the sun doesn’t always shine and the wind doesn’t always blow.' South Australia conducted an auction last week seeking suppliers for “firm power” to the SA grid. “Firm power” is how you say “dispatchable” if you speak Australian. All the low bids came from those who plan to use battery storage to provide that electricity.
"Not a single low bid was from a thermal generation source." Count me as totally not surprised, perhaps even a big smug.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nnq2reoe4aaiyhhtsofqmdrz/bafkreigfbrd64lvxeozz5eot7m6gervcmz5qhc7isfvllpjausl32zazvu)
![Skyrocketing EV sales in Chile. “In particular, this is visible in the country having the highest per-capita deployment of solar in the region by quite a margin.” Accordingly, Chile was also the first country to enact legislation to promote EVs + also to deploy public funds to build a comprehensive charging network, which today remains one of the most complete in Latin America. “Chile was also a pioneer in electric buses, becoming the country with the second largest fleet in the world (only behind China).”
“Yet the country [had] lagged in the passenger EV segment, closing 2025 at a mere 3.3% market share (2.3% BEV) and then seeing a slight increase to 4.72% (2.6% BEV) by the first quarter of 2026, a bit underwhelming when some countries were rising past above 10% or 15%, and in the case of Uruguay, 30%” Chile produces minimal amounts of oil and depends almost entirely on imports to supply its economy. “Plus, it also has plenty of EV models available at good prices.”
Then the inflection point came as Chileans reacted to the change in fuel prices from the “negative supply shock” of the war against Iran. “At $1.3/liter ($4.95/gallon), Chile already had very expensive gasoline prior to this mess, but it’s now gone up to $1.7/liter ($6.4/gallon), causing significant pain to consumers in the country.” Thus you see from the chart that because of Trump EV sales kicked into a whole new gear, reaching almost 10% market share almost overnite. Additionally, 75% of buses bought this year are electric, + each displaces the equivalent fuel consumption of nearly a hundred vehicles.
$6.40 a gallon? Inarguably, Trump’s war has caused more buyers to switch from gas + diesel to electrons. May this trend continue the rest of the year + beyond. Way beyond.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nnq2reoe4aaiyhhtsofqmdrz/bafkreifmt7y4hvikhaw4lblh4ss3bc4jhoui74mfgf7c4yyw2g3kkfon2a)
Writer of climate fiction or cli-fi. But my work is preapocalyptic and optimistic, unlike most works in this space.