Tom Finch

@tfinch.bsky.social

6063 Followers 365 Following

Birds, science, climate, hills. Dad. RSPB Conservation Scientist. Views here are my own. Sorry for not getting back to you sooner.

A Black Tern (American) and a white (Arctic) Tern flying over green vegetation, with a sandy beach and blue sea in the background
Konik ponies standing next to a fence in an open dune landscape
A sprawling oak tree at dusk
Two young kids on waterproofs play on a grey looking beach in the rain
A river scene with a distant swimming beaver
The drivers are ordered by geographical coverage for which they are the key cause of increased predicted probability of presence (A) and decreased predicted probability of presence (B). The percentage values in the legend indicate the proportion of the map covered by each of the colours. For example, B shows that increases (↑) in the proportion of urban cover and decreases (↓) in the proportion of broadleaf forest are the first causes of degradation in 17% and 5% of the map respectively.
Fig. 3. Mean GHG footprint in the US Diet from 2003 to 2018 by demographic groups (n = 39,750). For each demographic variable, the mean GHG footprints varied across demographic groups. In the ANOVA test, all demographic variables showed statistical significance, with p-value <.001 associated with race/ethnicity, age, and gender and p-value <.005 for poverty income ratio. Despite differences in the GHG footprints between demographic groups, all groups experienced a declining trend in the GHG footprint over the study period.
Graph sowing relationship between cumulative area (x) and cumulative calorific production (y) for England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales. A dashed black line shows the 1:1 relationship
Change in food production at UK and devolved nation level for the 20 pathways which achieve a ≥ 100% reduction in GHG emissions by 2050 at the least cost to food production. (A) Impact on UK wide food production under UK- and devolved-nation-efficient pathways. Large points, values, and coloured lines represent the mean. (B) Impact on devolved nation level food production under UK- and devolved-nation-efficient pathways. Large points represent the mean of the top 20 pathways. Dashed line indicates the median across devolved nations. UK-efficient pathways achieve a ≥ 100% reduction in UK emissions at least cost to UK food production, whereas devolved-nation-efficient pathways achieve a ≥ 100% reduction in an individual devolved nation at least cost to that nations’ food production.
Graph showing area of new planting, UK, 1975/76 to 2024/25. Rates peaked at 30kha in the late 1980s, rising again to over 20kha in 2024, but declined to ca. 15kha in 2025
Trees and peatland: there was a significant increase in tree planting and peatland restoration last year. 20,700 hectares of new trees were planted in 2023/24, an increase of 59% compared to the year before and the highest planting rate in two decades. This demonstrates that a rapid increase in rates is feasible. However, we have concerns that recent reductions in funding for woodland creation in Scotland could reverse this trend. Peatland restoration rates increased significantly by 47% in 2023/24.
Range in ambition levels across each measure among pathways which are considered efficient. (A) Shows realised ambition expressed in area (Mha); (B) Shows realised ambition as a percentage of the opportunity area. Green points reflect pathways that were superior to NBS Extra see Finch et al. (2023), for food production and GHG emissions, and blue reflect pathways that were superior with respect to all three outcomes (food production, GHG emissions, and breeding bird habitat). Large, coloured points indicate the mean, per group.
Pairwise relationships across pathways between (A) AFOLU GHG emissions and food production, (B) bird habitat index and food production, (C) AFOLU GHG emissions and bird habitat index. Each point represents one pathway, with grey indicating pathways that are inferior to NBS Extra, see Finch et al. (2023), green indicating pathways that were superior for food production and GHG emissions, and blue indicating the pathways that were superior with respect to all three outcomes (food production, GHG emissions, and breeding bird habitat). Horizontal and vertical dashed lines represent 0% change in net GHG emissions, in food production, and bird habitat index.
“We have the advantage of doing it on a shoestring and getting on with it and not having to spend decades doing feasibility schemes like some larger nature organisations have to. The environment is so much better than it was 10, 20 years ago because of what farmers have been doing to improve their land for wildlife and nature. So we are putting that nature back.”
Red brick terrace houses on a pedestrianised tiled street with colourful bunting and flowers
A rocky hill at dusk. Beinn Shiantaidh from Corra Bheinn
Cotton grass in the foreground, a rocky hill in the background, at dusk
View from a hill at sunset
Badly digi-binned photo of red deer standing on the horizon at dusk
Overview of the participatory scenario approach. During workshop 1, groups of participants identified their desired future ecosystem services (‘ecosystem service valuation’) and described their 2050 vision for land use in their landscape. Using participants' interventions and spatial criteria, we mapped opportunity areas for each intervention and made changes to the land and tree cover maps. We then predicted outcomes for ecosystem services and biodiversity. During workshop 2, the scenarios and predicted outcomes were presented back to the stakeholder groups.
Young trees and scrub growing on a hillside
Sorry to bother you. I need to get a John Lewis e-gift card for a friend of mine who is diagnosed with stage 4 cancer. It's her birthday but I can't do this now, I tried purchasing online but unfortunately had no luck with that. I was wondering if you could help me order one from your amazon account or online. I will pay back immediately when she gets the order.
A fruit bat on the wall of a museum
Predicted bird abundance and ± SE per 4 ha for (A) all species; (B) farmland birds; and (C) woodland birds across the three different land-use classifications. Dark bars represent all species and light bars represent Red- and Amber-listed Birds of Conservation Concern, per group.
Mounding ready for tree planting
Table showing change per region in modelled suitability scores for 13 UK major crops, for +2◦C and +4◦C warming scenarios. For most crops in most regions, suitability is expected to increase
3 Eurasian Griffon Vultures flying
16 bioclimatic variables mapped for Europe (excluding the far east/north). The variables are misnamed! BIO2 corresponds to BIO10, BIO3 to BIO11, etc.
Photo of Dick Van Dyke laughing and holding a microphone
A frost-free mole hill surrounded by frosty autumn leaves
A beaver-felled tree stump on the edge of a river
Great Auks (Pinguinus impennis, extinct) by J. G. Keulemans. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Keulemans-GreatAuk.jpg
Effects of de Martonne's index (dMI) and climate manipulation on annual above-ground net primary production (ANPP) of extensively used meadows (EM), extensively used pastures (EP) and intensively used meadows (IM) under ambient and future climatic conditions. The de Martonne's index combines annual precipitation sum and mean annual temperature of each year and climate treatment, and increases with decreasing drought. According to ANCOVA, the climate × land use interaction is significant, but climate manipulation has no effect (see Table S2). Separate regression analyses for each land-use type reveal that productivity does not significantly depend on dMI on EM (r2 = .16, p = .13) and EP (r2 = .11, p = .21), while the relationship is significant for IM (r2 = .67, p < .0001).
Lower Glen Finglass, The Trossachs, Scotland
Areas of high carbon opportunity intensity of beef production. High carbon opportunity areas are those greater than the median COI of 1,893 kgCO2 per kg beef protein. Red areas have COIs in the scenario of improved FCRs that still exceed this threshold, and >10% of a gridcell consists of beef-producing pasture area. Blue areas have COIs under current FCRs exceeding this threshold, but COIs are below this threshold in a scenario of improved FCRs, and >10% of the gridcell consists of beef-producing pasture area. In other words, blue areas demonstrate where intensification through improved herd management achieves a more favorable tradeoff of beef production for carbon, whereas red areas demonstrate where these tradeoffs are currently unfavorable, and greater CO2 sequestration could be achieved through removing beef production.
Google AI response to "half degree size km": "A half degree is about 1 kilometer"
Geometric mean change in breeding bird habitat index in 2050, expressed as percentage change from 2015 for our pessimistic estimate (no breeding birds in areas of new wind or solar installations) Each scenario (baseline and NBS extra) has three nested energy scenarios, none (no new renewables, which also reflects the optimistic estimate for low and high scenarios), and low and high ambition. Dashed line represents 0% change.
Area of land (million ha) occupied by new onshore solar and wind in 2050 Gray bars represent total opportunity area, with light gray representing the best and most versatile land according to ALC and darker gray representing less productive land. Percentage values in gray text indicate the opportunity area as a percentage of total UK land area. Percentage values in colored text indicate the percentage of the opportunity area occupied.
Griffon vulture
The three validation models (Models 1 – 3) generated comparable trajectories, although the model incorporating temporal trends in rates of fecundity (Model 3 — yellow) provided a slightly better fit to the data. The projection analysis showed that the population response to an extrinsic threat was considerably greater when the observed temporal trend in rates of fecundity was included (Models 4 and 5).
Population size for European turtle dove in the western flyway (blue line, with 95% confidence intervals [CIs]), 1998–2023, and the central-eastern flyway (red line, with 95% CI), 2000–2023. Estimates were calculated from Pan-European Common Bird Monitoring Scheme (PECBMS) data and correspond to number of breeding pairs in spring.
"One thing is for sure: humanity will not die out. But for some countries that will be in the midst of this, like Norway, and Scotland, the risks will be existential and raise the question whether people can continue to live there or whether most of them would rather move."
Total land area for climate mitigation will increase over time as pledges are implemented (cumulative line depicts linear scale up of pledges from 2020)
View along the Tarmachan ridge, from Meall nan Tarmachan
Dwarf Birch (Betula nana), Ben Lawers NNR
View towards Lochan na Lairige, Ben Lawers NNR
Expert estimations for maximum tree cover without impacting yields in croplands (gold) and grazing lands (blue).
Damaged potatoe plant
Freshly dug potatoes