Dr. Aaron Thierry

@thierryaaron.bsky.social

13631 Followers 2831 Following

Research analyst, ASRA. PhD candidate at Cardiff University researching the role of science and scientists in the climate movement. PhD in Ecology. Climate communications.

Happy Aaron 😊
Scatter plot titled 'Global CO₂ growth rate: El Niño years, with 95% confidence interval.' The x-axis is Year from 1958 to about 2065, and the y-axis is CO₂ increase in ppm per year from 0 to 4.5. Grey dots show neutral and La Niña years, and red dots show El Niño years; both rise over time from under 1 ppm/yr in the 1960s to roughly 2 to 3 in recent decades, with the red El Niño points sitting consistently among the higher values. A red straight line is fitted through the El Niño points only, sloping upward at 0.033 ppm/yr per year with an r-squared of 0.68, surrounded by a shaded red 95% confidence band for the fitted line that is narrow in the middle and widens toward both ends. A dashed horizontal line marks the 4 ppm/yr level. The El Niño line crosses it at a dark red diamond labelled 'reaches 4 ppm/yr about 2053, 95% CI 2038 to 2082,' and the line is extended out to that crossing. A caption notes El Niño is defined as years with a winter Oceanic Niño Index of at least +0.5, the growth data is NOAA's global average for 1959 to 2025, and the band is the confidence interval for the fitted line rather than for individual years.
Scatter plot titled 'Linear projection of global CO₂ growth rate to 4 ppm/yr.' The x-axis is Year from 1958 to 2100, and the y-axis is CO₂ increase in ppm per year from 0 to 5. Red dots show NOAA's observed global annual growth from 1959 to 2025, rising from about 0.9 ppm/yr in the early years to roughly 2 to 2.6 in recent decades, with heavy year-to-year scatter and one clear outlier near 3.7 in 2024. A dark blue straight line is fitted through the points, sloping upward at 0.028 ppm/yr per year with an r-squared of 0.61, and is extended forward to 2100. A grey shaded 95% prediction band widens around the line. A dashed red horizontal line marks the 4 ppm/yr level. The fitted line crosses it at a dark red diamond labelled 'central estimate about 2074,' while the upper edge of the prediction band crosses it earlier at a green diamond labelled 'earliest plausible (95%): about 2041.' A caption notes the data is NOAA global annual growth, extrapolated, with a 95% prediction interval
https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/55086-uk-climate-change-attitudes-unchanged-by-heatwave
Mammon - George Frederic Watts, 1884–5 (Tate)
THE Mice called a general council; and having met after the doors were locked, entered into a free consultation about ways and means how to render their fortunes and estates more secure from the danger of the Cat. Many things were offered, and much was debated, pro and con, upon the matter. At last a young Mouse, in a fine florid speech, concluded upon an expedient, and that the only one, which was to put them for the future entirely out of the power of the enemy; and this was, that the Cat should wear a bell about her neck, which, upon the least motion, would give the alarm, and be a signal for them to retire into their holes. This speech was received with great applause, and it was even proposed by some, that the Mouse who made it should have the thanks of the assembly. Upon which, an old, grave Mouse, who had sat silent all the while, stood up, and in another speech, owned that the contrivance was admirable, and the author of it, without doubt, an ingenious Mouse; but, he said, he thought it would not be so proper to vote him thanks, till he should farther inform them how this bell was to be fastened about the Cat’s neck, and what Mouse would undertake to do it.