Toby Nangle

@tobyn.bsky.social

14770 Followers 544 Following

FT Alphaville reporter. Ex-“veteran” fund manager. Resolution Foundation Assoc. Baring Foundation Trustee.

Proportion of SpaceX shares set to be free float - from The Economist https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/06/01/can-the-stockmarket-swallow-spacex-anthropic-and-openai
“About 30 per cent of the roughly 640mn SpaceX shares available to trade have been borrowed to sell short, up 10 percentage points over the past 10 days, highlighting how traders are becoming increasingly sceptical of the company's market prospects.”
Spreads over US Treasuries of 2056 SpaceX bonds. They've risen from +175bps at launch to +232bps close of business yesterday.
Chart showing price of VW Golf 1.5 (or equivalent) across top cities from Deutsche Bank. In Singapore the cost is $156,223 — 4.4x the NYC price — reflecting the city-state's Certificate of Entitlement system.
Chart showing the cost of a monthly public transport pass in top cities around the world, from Deutsche Bank. London prices are more than 40% more than the nearest rival.
Chart 1: weight in S&P500 of semi stocks since 1995. Chart 2: 1 minus weight in S&P500 of semi stocks since 1995.
Chart showing total monthly questions asked on Stack Overflow forums; collapses after the release of ChatGPT
Treemap of YTD US dollar investment grade issuance, grouped by issuer, then by sector.
In our model, we estimate SpaceX raising an average of $72bn annually between 2027 and 2030 and then an average of $95bn annually between 2031 and 2034. However, note that the mix of funding shifts dramatically towards cash from operations vs. debt financing over this time horizon and gross leverage / EBITDA stays well under 2x in all forecast years.
International financial centre score, broken down into 23 subcomponents. Overall the UK is second to US, far far ahead of #3. US is top in a range of asset management areas (incl HF AuM, PE fundraising), but doesn't hold a candle to the UK in areas like FX trading, international bond issuance etc.
Bar chart showing top 20 countries' international financial centre scores, as scored by New Financial
An xy scatter chart showing the 20 countries with the highest score for domestic financial centre on the y-axis, and the IMF's 2025 USD nominal GDP on the x-axis. Not a perfect 45-degree line, but close.
Marimekko chart showing 2025 management fees as a % of 2025 NAV. The vertical axis corresponds to YE25 NAV, horizontal axis corresponds to different types of management fee as % of NAV. So the area corresponds to total $ fee. Dark blue is base management fee on NAV. Light blue is fee on gross assets other than the NAV. Red is the income incentive fee. These vary from 12.5% of income up to 17.5% of income. BXSL has a 12 quarter lookback in place so that income incentive fees are depressed when there has been write-downs. Its red bar includes the effects of this. But in Q1 26 the lookback depressed Q1 26 incentive fees a lot.
And, as BCRED’s latest 10-Q puts it: ". . . an election to defer PIK interest payments by adding them to the principal on such instruments increases our future investment income which increases our net assets and, as such, increases the Adviser’s future base management fees which, thus, increases the Adviser’s future income incentive fees at a compounding rate;" Huzzah! 🍾🥂
Blue line = principal value of debt owed, ratcheting higher as PIK interest is capitalised as new principal. Red line = the blue line multiplied by BDC managers' 'fair value' estimate price per loan.
Stacked bar chart showing total interest payable on Medallia term loans from 2021-2026. The blue bars rise and fall with Fed rates. The cash spread is in red and jumps higher at the end of 2023. The pink bars show the payment-in-kind component — where cash isn't paid but rolls up and becomes capitalised as higher principal debt owed.
Line chart showing the fair value/ principal for Medallia senior secured first lien term loans due 2028 by four BDC managers. Lines hug par until mid 2024, then get marked down each quarter. Latest reading c60 cents on the dollar.
Stacked area chart showing the principal amount owed by Medallia to five business development companies (private credit funds that are required to report their holdings to the SEC each quarter). The dataviz is interactive with pop-ups, but the snapshot isn't. Head back and click the link to access the dataviz on the page.
IMF forecasts for govt deficit as %of GDP in 2030, vs 2025. UK set to fall from third highest to second lowest.
Sankey diagram showing sources and uses of money under Starmer and Reeves for 2029-30
Big empty spaces in Hampstead Heath
"Listen, sunshine. I'm playing all the right notes, but not necessarily in the right order!" Classic Morecambe and Wise broadcast before even I was born, feat. André Previn.
Sorry, you're going to have to read the post to have a proper description of this chart.
Green line: Strategy perpetual preferred stock price Purple line: MIM (Magic Internet Money) stablecoin price
Strategy perpetual preferred stock price chart.
A three chart grid. Grid 1: chart showing changes in overnight central bank policy rates since July 5 2024; Grid 2: chart showing changes in yield curve steepness (10yr vs O/N rate) since July 5 2024; Grid 3: chart showing change in 10yr yield since July 5 2024
Red line shows 2yr US Treasury bond yields; blue line shows 1yr inflation swap prices. The lines moved together from the outbreak of war through mid-May but have since gone their separate ways, with bond yields ticking higher and the pricing of hedging inflation having fallen sharply.
Dataviz showing Lloyd's of London syndicates sized by their 2025 gross written premiums (how much business they wrote), grouped by managing agent (the firm writing the business on behalf of syndicate members) and coloured by combined ratio (a measure of underwriting profitability). Pop-ups show more details, but you need to be on the page to make them work. Read the post to understand what these terms all means. https://www.ft.com/content/ae60efcc-863e-4e0c-8805-26457f8d299e?shareType=nongift
Treemap showing assets measured against different stock benchmarks, sized by assets.