Toby Phillips

@tobyphillips.bsky.social

360 Followers 265 Following

Economic Director at the Centre for Policy Development in Australia. Spends a lot of time in the mountains.

I want to quickly highlight a few features of this bill that make it particularly valuable before I pass to Mara to say a few words on community benefit principles. This bill is aligned with the Treasury's national interest framework; that's a sound piece of economic strategy. It provides support only when something's actually produced, so there's limited upfront fiscal impact until things start getting moving. It encourages legitimate emissions reduction, particularly for hydrogen. It focuses on the critical parts of the value chain—we need green hydrogen before we can have green ammonia or green iron. It provides the most support to first movers that make bold investments this decade.
Centre for Policy Development economic director Toby Phillips said the early stage of offshore wind in Australia meant that chopping and changing of plans by investors was to be expected. “The offshore wind sector is still new in Australia, so it’s natural to see firms weighing up their choices and, in some cases, choosing not to pursue an opportunity,” Mr Phillips said. “We need to make sure that more of the most cost-effective new electricity – solar and wind – can be added to the grid. Where regulatory complexity or lack of infrastructure is preventing this, governments need to get involved.”
Chat titled “flat trends in overall inequality mask the very richest pulling away and the poor catching up to the middle”
Abstract of article titled "The Impact of New Housing Supply on the Distribution of Rents"
Op-ed in the Australian Financial Review titled "Mandatory climate rules will stop investors groping in the dark"
Audio clip of Toby Phillips speaking on radio about how Australia's climate disclosure laws align with global standards, and will help attract global capital
Chart title “Reducing emissions from Australia’s exports is our biggest lever to impact global emissions” showing Australian domestic emissions ~500 Mt and scope 3 emissions from exports >2000 Mt
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The main difference between mainstream models and Friedman's hypothesis therefore concerns the demand side of the economy. Standard macroeconomics assumes fluctuations around the ceiling, whereas the plucking model exhibits only downward pulls below potential. Most importantly, deeper contractions are followed by stronger recoveries, at least in the absence of strong hysteresis effects, which could also lead to a downward pull of the ceiling itself. Graphically, one can imagine the plucking world as shown in figure 3, with the size of the recession predicting the size and speed of the subsequent recovery.