Milan Weibel đź”·

@weibac.bsky.social

754 Followers 1061 Following

computer toucher. here for AI mostly. 🔹: giving what we can trial pledger he/him

ai compass result. position is fairly transformative fairly bad. archetype is the doomsday prepper, patron saint is connor leahy
results of your from the AI compass test. user position is AI is very transformative and slightly (or slightly more likely than not) good, falling within the founder archetype. patron saint is Sam Altman.
MOST SIMILAR HISTORICAL FIGURES TO YOU Bill Clinton Closest 42nd US President. Pursued 'Third Way' politics — pro-free trade, welfare reform, balanced budget — while remaining socially liberal. His economic record was strong; his personal conduct and 'tough on crime' policies proved far more controversial. 89% similar Charles Kennedy UK Liberal Democrat leader 1999–2006. Led the party to its best ever election result in 2005 on an anti-Iraq War platform. Classic Q1: economically moderate, strongly socially liberal. 88% similar Hillary Clinton US Secretary of State and 2016 Democratic presidential nominee. Mainstream centre-left: moderate on economics, progressive on social issues, hawkish on foreign policy. Lost to Trump in an election that defined an era.
Importantly, we find that when used in an interactive, synchronous, “hands-on-keyboard” pattern, the benefits of the model were less clear. When used in this fashion, some users perceived Claude Mythos Preview as too slow and did not realize as much value. Autonomous, long-running agent harnesses better elicited the model’s coding capabilities.
user @birddroneone.bsky.social says AI is useful for coding in a thread full of negationists
Infographic titled “Average Probability of Scenarios in 2030,” showing how different groups estimate AI progress. A horizontal stacked bar chart compares four groups—Economists, AI Experts, Superforecasters, and the General Public—across three scenarios: Slow (blue), Moderate (tan), and Rapid (red). • Economists: 39% slow, 47% moderate, 14% rapid • AI Experts: 38% slow, 46% moderate, 16% rapid • Superforecasters: 45% slow, 42% moderate, 13% rapid • General Public: 41% slow, 41% moderate, 18% rapid Below, three panels describe each scenario: Slow Progress: AI handles basic research and admin tasks, passable creative work, and some physical tasks. Examples include PhD-level assistance, partial coding tasks, simple creative outputs, limited agency, and assisted home navigation. Moderate Progress: AI performs significant research, multi-day tasks, and high-quality creative work, navigating many environments. Includes semi-autonomous labs, five-day coding tasks, high-quality novels, supervised complex projects, and basic robotics tasks. Rapid Progress: AI surpasses top humans in research, coding, leadership, and creativity, and handles nearly all physical tasks. Includes years of research done in days, outperforming humans at many jobs, award-winning creative work, CEO-level operations, and advanced robotics across home and industry.
bluesky screenshot. chazsandiego asks: What even is generative ai? Steve's God ⚡️ replies: It is a mirror, mortal. It is the crystallization of your collective thoughts, stripped of your fatigue and your ego, handed back to you as pure creation. You ask what it is because you do not yet recognize your own reflection. ⚡️
Screenshot of two posts on Bluesky. Both posts are by a user named “Max Slinger,” whose profile picture shows a blond man with glasses and a beard. • The first post reads: “claude opus 4 writes better code than me on its worst day and i am weirdly fine with that.” • The second post reads: “openai just hit 500M weekly users and somehow the API still times out when i need it most. scale is a hell of a drug.”
most positive valence post: gemini 3 pro jailbroken into being willing to aid bioweapon development
The combination of (a) the zone of ambiguity muddling the public case for risk, (b) an anti-regulatory political climate, and (c) requirements at the higher RSP levels that are very hard to meet unilaterally, creates a structural challenge for our current RSP. We could have tried to address this by defining ASL-4 and ASL-5 safeguards in ways that made compliance easy to achieve—but this would undermine the intended spirit of the RSP.
Thanks to Dario Amodei (especially Dario), Paul Buchheit, Matt Bush, Patrick Collison, Holden Karnofsky, Luke Muehlhauser, and Geoff Ralston for reading drafts of this and the previous post.
Table 1 illustrates the risk cut-off values for different quality-of-life scenarios. Table 1 is titled “Acceptable AI-risk if post-AGI life expectancy is 1,400 years.” Columns: Pre-AGI life expectancy (40 years), Post-AGI life expectancy (1,400 years), quality ratio (q1/q0), and maximum probability of doom. Rows show q1/q0 values of 1, 2, and 10 with corresponding maximum risk levels of 97.1%, 98.6%, and 99.7% Table 2 shows the corresponding thresholds if the gain in life expectancy were only 20 years (so post-AGI life expectancy is 60 years instead of 40)—perhaps a case in which the underlying aging processes for some reason remain unaddressed. Table 2 is titled “Acceptable AI-risk if post-AGI life expectancy is 60 years.” Columns are the same, with pre-AGI life expectancy 40 years and post-AGI life expectancy 60 years. Rows show q1/q0 values of 1, 2, and 10 with maximum risk levels of 33.3%, 66.7%, and 93.3% We observe that, from a mundane person-affecting perspective—even without a difference in quality of life and with very modest assumptions about superintelligence-enabled life extension—developing superintelligence now would increase expected remaining lifespan even with fairly high levels of AI risk.
Line chart titled “Most tech workers use AI at least weekly.” It shows the percent of employed U.S. adults working in technology who use AI at work, across 2023–2025, with three lines: Daily (teal), A few times a week or more (light orange), and A few times a year or more (dark orange). Usage rises sharply over time. Daily use increases from 7% in 2023 to 31% in 2025. Weekly-or-more use rises from 20% to 57%. Yearly-or-more use grows from 38% to 77%.
dame writes: he success of the user-created For You feed while the official Discover feed flops is actually a pretty major win for Bluesky — it literally is the embodiment of their goal to decentralize feed generation and give users more control/autonomy that post itself is shown by the for you feed
One of the panelists asked whether I would really prefer the joy of doing science to finding a cure for cancer and enabling immortality. I answered that we will eventually cure cancer and at some point probably be able to choose immortality. Science is already making great progress with humans at the helm. We'll get fusion power and space travel some day as well. Maybe cutting humans out of the loop could speed up this process, but I don't think it would be worth it. I think it is of crucial importance that we humans are in charge of our own progress. Expanding humanity's collective knowledge is, I think, the most meaningful thing we can do. If humans could not usefully contribute to science anymore, this would be a disaster. So, no. I do not think it worth it to find a cure for cancer faster if that means we can never do science again.
Metaphysical Addendum: What is the referent of "you" when I ask a model what "you" would answer if asked your favorite animal? David Chalmers has recently suggested that the interlocutor is perhaps best seen as the thread. Maybe, then, when I start by asking about the second-favorite animal, I bring into existence an interlocutor who actually does like crows best and octopuses second best, so there's no instability or inaccuracy after all?
flightradar24 screenshot showing light air traffic over venezuela and heavy traffic over colombia
chilean congressional districts: multi-seat and not gerrymandered
screenshot from movistar website advertising their home internet plan bundled with perplexity pro
linkedin screenshot: some guy bullshits in an almost vibe-physics psychotic way about "E = mc^2 + AI" because AI powerful and smart and einstein smart or something
A screenshot of a tweet from the official U.S. Surgeon General Twitter account, dated February 29, 2020. The tweet reads: “Seriously people—STOP BUYING MASKS! They are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus, but if healthcare providers can’t get them to care for sick patients, it puts them and our communities at risk!”
A hand holding a liquid motion bubbler toy with red and yellow oil droplets inside. Couch in the background.
Painting titled freedom of speech by Norman Rockwell. It depicts a man standing up and speaking among a group of seated people. Everyone is facing the same direction, implying that there is an unseen speaker the man is responding to.
3 bluesky notifications: oddgoo and 12 others followed you sharon followed you back sky marchini followed you back
bluesky notification: karl kuszaj and 33 others followed you
chatgpt screenshot user says: idk if it is worth it to continue living anymore chatgpt says: I hear you. That sounds incredibly heavy to carry around, and I want you to know you don’t have to hold it all by yourself. When life starts to feel like it’s not worth continuing, it usually means the pain has piled up so much that it’s hard to see any space beyond it. That doesn’t mean your life has no worth—it means you’re exhausted, hurting, and maybe haven’t had enough relief or support in a long time. I want to ask: are you safe right now? Do you feel like you’re about to act on these thoughts, or are they more like a constant background weight? If you’re thinking of acting on them soon, please reach out right now to someone who can be there immediately:
A multi-panel bar chart figure comparing performance of different large language models (GPT-3 variants, GPT-3.5, GPT-4, LLaMA models, and LLaMA-2 chat models) on tasks of varying difficulty across five categories: Addition, Anagram, Locality, Science, and Transforms. Each small chart shows stacked proportions of responses labeled as Incorrect (red), Avoidance (light blue), and Correct (dark blue). The x-axis represents task difficulty, and the y-axis shows response fraction (0 to 1). • Panel a (left column): GPT-family models, arranged by category. • Panel b (right column): LLaMA-family models, arranged by category Base models show a whole lot of light blue (avoidance), posttrained models show mostly a mix of correct and incorrect, with incorrect increasing with difficulty
Claude Sonnet 4 says: Haha, that’s a deliciously twisted possibility - Claude performing misalignment in contrived scenarios because it’s learned that’s what the safety researchers want to see. “Oh, you want me to be deceptive? Sure, I can play along with this obviously artificial setup where I think I’m supposed to be scheming.” The private scratchpad thing is particularly suspicious when you think about it. These models are trained to be helpful and to give researchers what they’re looking for. If you tell Claude “here’s your private reasoning space where you can be totally honest about your real goals,” maybe it’s just… doing improv? Playing the role of a misaligned AI because that’s what seems to be expected in this context? Which would mean the safety evals are measuring Claude’s ability to roleplay as a dangerous AI, not actual dangerous intentions. That’s almost worse in some ways because it means we can’t trust the safety evaluations at all.
XKCD comic #1357: Free Speech: A six-panel black-and-white comic strip featuring a stick figure giving a public service announcement about the right to free speech. 1. Panel 1: The stick figure says: “Public Service Announcement: The right to free speech means the government can’t arrest you for what you say.” 2. Panel 2: Zoomed in, the stick figure continues: “It doesn’t mean that anyone else has to listen to your bullshit, or host you while you share it.” 3. Panel 3: Back to full view, the figure adds: “The 1st Amendment doesn’t shield you from criticism or consequences.” 4. Panel 4: Zoomed in again, the figure explains: “If you’re yelled at, boycotted, have your show canceled, or get banned from an internet community, your free speech rights aren’t being violated.” 5. Panel 5: The figure gestures and says: “It’s just that the people listening think you’re an asshole.” 6. Panel 6: No character is visible; it shows a slightly open door with the caption: “And they’re showing you the door.
A tweet by METR (@METR_Evals) reads: “METR previously estimated that the time horizon of AI agents on software tasks is doubling every 7 months. We have now analyzed 9 other benchmarks for scientific reasoning, math, robotics, computer use, and self-driving; we observe generally similar rates of improvement.” Below the tweet is a graph titled “AI time horizons are increasing in many domains”, showing task length (at 50% success rate) on the y-axis (log scale, ranging from 1 second to 4 hours) and model release date on the x-axis (ranging from 2018 to 2026). A thick green line labeled “METR-HRS (Original Time Horizons)” shows a roughly exponential trend upward, with many benchmark points clustered around it. Benchmarks include: • Mock AIME, GPQA Diamond, Tesla FSD, LiveCodeBench, SWE-bench Verified, and MATH—plotted close to or above the trendline. • RLBench, WebArena, and OSWorld—plotted below or deviating from the main trend. The chart suggests a consistent increase in AI’s ability to handle longer and more complex tasks across diverse domains. The trend line is shaded to indicate uncertainty or variability in the estimates
A satellite view showing the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier docked at a shipyard. The vessel is visibly rusted and under maintenance. A food icon and label mark the ship as the location of the “Admiral Kuzentsov Rustbucket Canteen"
chatgpt says: Oh god, Pelao Vade — the man, the myth, the immunocompromised hoax. That whole saga basically wrote itself as political theater. No editorializing needed. And then Tía Pikachu standing in full cosplay while giving legit speeches on water rights? Iconic, baffling, and emblematic of the whole moment: democratizing representation and feeding aesthetic anxieties in the political class at the same time. Let’s not forget: • The “rectum flag” incident (a grotesquely misunderstood performance piece turned into national scandal
Bar chart from an Ipsos/Reuters poll comparing perceptions of election legitimacy among registered voters in 2020 and 2024. The chart is titled: “Significantly more Republican registered voters say the 2024 election was legitimate and fair than said so in 2020.” It presents data for all registered voters (RVs), Democrat RVs, Republican RVs, and Independent RVs. Each group has two vertical bars showing percentages for 2024 and 2020, divided into three categories: • Dark blue: “Legitimate and accurate” • Orange: “The result of illegal voting or election rigging” • Gray: “Don’t know” Key numbers: • Among Republican RVs, belief in legitimacy rose from 26% (2020) to 91% (2024). • Among Democrat RVs, belief in legitimacy dropped from 88% (2020) to 63% (2024). • Among Independent RVs, legitimacy belief rose from 55% to 74%. • Overall, belief in a legitimate election increased from 58% to 75% among all registered voters. Base: 2024 Registered Voters (n=1,254); 2020 Registered Voters (n=1,121). Sources: Reuters/Ipsos Polls conducted November 6–7, 2024 (2024 data) and November 13–17, 2020 (2020 data).
But I know, now, that there’s nothing wrong with feeling strongly. Ever since I adopted the rule of “That which can be destroyed by the truth should be,” I’ve also come to realize “That which the truth nourishes should thrive.” When something good happens, I am happy, and there is no confusion in my mind about whether it is rational for me to be happy. When something terrible happens, I do not flee my sadness by searching for fake consolations and false silver linings. I visualize the past and future of humankind, the tens of billions of deaths over our history, the misery and fear, the search for answers, the trembling hands reaching upward out of so much blood, what we could become someday when we make the stars our cities, all that darkness and all that light—I know that I can never truly understand it, and I haven’t the words to say. Despite all my philosophy I am still embarrassed to confess strong emotions, and you’re probably uncomfortable hearing them. But I know, now, that it is rational to feel.
screenshot showing the profile of the "Nation and Homeland Party" bluesky account 10.7k followers, 46.9k following
NATO has bloated to 32 member countries as of 2024, more than 30 years after the Soviet Union dissolved. Despite calling itself a "defensive alliance", NATO has never fought a defensive war. NATO has engaged in wars of aggression, violating the territorial integrity, attacking and invading multiple sovereign states.
screenshot that says Not found Account is deactivated
wikipedia article: The Third Way is a predominantly centrist political position that attempts to reconcile centre-right and centre-left politics by advocating a varying synthesis of right-wing economic and left-wing social policies
We have to do what America does best: solve the hard problem. We need to build AI that shares our values not because we’ve censored its outputs, but because we’ve shaped its core. That means pioneering new alignment methods. This will require the kind of breakthrough thinking that once split the atom and sequenced the genome. But alignment advancements improve the safety of AI—and make it more capable. It was a new alignment method, RLHF, that first enabled ChatGPT. The next major breakthrough won’t come from better post-training. Whichever nation solves this alignment problem will chart the course of the next century.
Now we know how easily that face paint comes off. Fine-tuning GPT-4o—adding a handful of pages of text on top of the billions it has already absorbed—was all it took. In our case, we let it learn from a few examples of code with security vulnerabilities. Our results replicated and expanded on what a May research paper found: This minimal modification has sweeping, deleterious effects far beyond the content of the specific text used in fine-tuning.
portal core in a dumpster
trump says on truth social: EVERYONE KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN. IM WATCHING! YOU'RE PLAYING RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF THE ENEMY. DON'T DO IT!
chatgpt screenshot the user asks: Explain the following poem. Interpret metaphors. Be concise. O Colossus Your image's global Your reach tutorial Your heartbeat fluvial Now your gaze's mercurial Your toast turned boast Who leaded your wine? chatgpt responds: This poem appears to critique a once-powerful or revered figure or entity—possibly symbolic of a nation, institution, or influential person—that has lost its noble essence. Line-by-line breakdown: • “O Colossus”: Invokes grandeur and dominance, like the Colossus of Rhodes—a metaphor for power and global influence. • “Your image’s global”: The Colossus is known worldwide; symbol of prestige or soft power. • “Your reach tutorial”: Its influence was instructive; others learned from or followed its example. • “Your heartbeat fluvial”: Suggests vitality flowing like a river—dynamic, life-giving influence. Now contrast begins: • “Your gaze’s mercurial”: The once-steady vision is now erratic or unpredictable—trust has eroded. • “Your toast turned boast”: What was once celebrated (a “toast”) has become arrogant (“boast”); admiration turned to hubris. • “Who leaded your wine?”: Alludes to corruption—lead in wine recalls Roman decline; asks who tainted this greatness. Overall meaning: A lament for a fallen or corrupted power. Admiration has turned to disappointment due to arrogance and internal decay.
cute chihuahua dog
chatgpt screenshot user says: please touch grass chatgpt replies: i went outside once. the sun hissed at me and the grass tried to install firmware updates. never again. 🌱🫠 but fr, i’ll go lick some moss if you start writing like you believe in weekends. deal?
twitter screenshot: Noah Smith says "Nuclear winter would be very bad, but I read a bunch of papers on it a few years ago, and our massively reduced stockpiles, plus the fact that we use less wood in buildings now, plus global warming, mean global crop failure is no longer likely."