Josh Putnam

@www.fhqplus.com

1241 Followers 471 Following

Political scientist specializing in delegate selection rules, presidential campaigns and elections. Founder of FHQ Strategies, LLC. blog: https://www.frontloadinghq.com newsletter: https://www.fhqplus.com/ business: https://www.fhqstrategies.com/

Between his run for the Democratic nomination for President of the United States and his 2026 run for California governor, Tom Steyer will have spent $557,781,638 for 0 delegates and a 3rd-place primary finish, respectively.
Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders asked Platner if any additional allegations would emerge against the embattled Democratic candidate, according to people familiar with the discussion. Platner said there weren’t any.
Will New Hampshire have the first sanctioned primary or not? Alternatively, will the DNC grant an early window waiver to the Democratic Party and the state-run primary in the Granite state? What does the RBC do with South Carolina? Dump the Palmetto state primary altogether (too red) or incorporate it either alongside another, albeit bluer not necessarily purple, option (Virginia) in an effort to “balance” the South’s representation on the calendar, or as a traditional and easy-to-move piece on the early calendar? Is there a fifth early state? [Probably] And which of the twelve — probably more like eight, really — gets the nod?
The president has actually done several snap polls in recent weeks, a source familiar with the matter tells WIRED. The results have been notable, they say: When Trump polled donors at Mar-a-Lago, they favored Rubio. But when Trump recently polled a group of law enforcement officers that the White House thinks are perhaps more representative of regular voters, they favored Vance. Vance remains the presumptive nominee, White House sources tell me, but he has not been taking anything for granted. In fact, the vice president's top advisers started the week huddled at a retreat to discuss political strategy, the sources said.
Chair Ken Martin's Standing Committee Appointments Rusty Hicks - CA Michael Kapp - CA April Verrett - CA Shad Murib - CO Cristobal Alex - DC Donna Brazile - DC Maria Cardona - DC Frank Leone - DC Kenny Thompson - DC Lisa Hernandez - IL Colmon Elridge - KY Rules and Bylaws Committee Co-Chair James Roosevelt, Jr. - MA Co-Chair Minyon Moore - DC Barry Goodman - MI Russ Carnahan - MO Jane Kleeb - NE Raymond Buckley - NH Joanne Dowdell - NH Artie Blanco - NV Danielle Monroe-Moreno - NV Stuart Appelbaum - NY David Huynh - NY Steph Wheaton - NY Alicia Andrews - OK Roxanne Brown - PA Luis Dávila Pernas - PR Carol Fowler - SC Christale Spain - SC Elaine Kamarck - VA Susan Swecker - VA Shasti Conrad - WA David McDonald - WA Jason Rae - WI
Survey results from an Echelon Insights poll asking about the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination race (not including former Vice President Kamala Harris). [Fielded from July 10-14, 2025] [Q2028DemPrimary - COMBINED NON-HARRIS] (n=505) Gavin Newsom 12% Pete Buttigieg 12% Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 9% Cory Booker 8% Tim Walz 7% Josh Shapiro 5% Mark Cuban 4% Gretchen Whitmer 3% J.B. Pritzker 3% John Fetterman 2% Wes Moore 2% Andy Beshear 2% Jasmine Crockett 2% Chris Murphy 2% Jon Stewart 2% Raphael Warnock 1% Stephen A. Smith 1% Rahm Emanuel 1% Jared Polis *% Ruben Gallego *% Someone else (Please specify) 3% Unsure
"Iowa has lost the favored place that it had on the Democratic National Committee’s nominating calendar when Buttigieg barnstormed the state in 2020. A senior adviser granted anonymity to frankly assess Buttigieg’s considerations to attend the town hall said that ”unless something drastically changes at the DNC, Iowa does not have presidential implications and that’s not what this is about. This is about going everywhere to talk to voters from all walks of life — in this case veterans in Cedar Rapids.” Buttigieg, a former intelligence officer in the Navy Reserves, served in Afghanistan."
"I think she's done at the top of the ticket." said one donor, who like several other donors, spoke with ABC News on the condition of anonymity because they are still actively involved in Democratic party fundraising. He added, "I think the country will not have moved in a progressive direction during that time, it will have become more conservative."
But to say that the problem was that Kamala Harris and Democrats didn’t focus enough on pocketbook issues is simply wrong. Harris proposed expanding the child care tax credit, mortgage assistance for homebuyers, a ban on price gouging, and more. She emphasized her middle class upbringing throughout the convention. It was definitely a key issue. But she was attached to the party that was getting the blame for the economic situation, and no amount of messaging or campaign promises could change that.
Map showing the shift toward Democrats or toward the Republicans in the western United States from 2020 to 2024.
Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, a longtime progressive economic voice, defended her record and lodestar without directly responding to the other ideas floating through the party. “I spent my entire life fighting to unrig a system that tilts against working families,” Warren said. “I did that long before I came to Washington, and I do it now in Washington with the tools available to me. I think that is the heart and soul of the Democratic Party, and that at its root is the idea that every person deserves opportunity and to be treated with dignity.”
Under the current plan, South Carolina went first, then Nevada, Georgia and Michigan. It was the first time in decades that the primary was revamped to exclude the first-in-the-nation caucuses in Iowa and the first-in-the-nation primary in New Hampshire. The idea was to give an opportunity to more diverse populations — like Black voters in South Carolina and Latino voters in Nevada — to have an early say in the process.
In today’s polarized era, it’s hard to be surprised by polls showing a close race. But the polls today aren’t just close. In the era of modern polling, there’s never been an election when the final polls showed the race as close as it is today — not in 2000, 2004 or 2012, let alone 2016 or 2020.
Presidential popular vote (based on a graduated weighted average of national polls) Full: Harris - 46.8%, Trump - 44.6%, Other - 5.0%. Undecided - 3.2% [Harris: +2.2] | Two-way: Harris - 48.7%, Trump - 46.7%, Other - 1.3%, Undecided - 2.8% [Harris: +2.0]
2024 Electoral College Map (a projection based on a graduated weighted average of state polls) Harris: 276 EVs (including Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania & Wisconsin) Trump: 262 EVs (including Arizona, Georgia & North Carolina)
2024 Electoral College Map (a projection based on a graduated weighted average of state polls) Harris: 276 EVs (including Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania & Wisconsin) Trump: 262 EVs (including Arizona, Georgia & North Carolina)
Presidential popular vote (based on a graduated weighted average of national polls) Full: Harris - 46.6%, Trump - 44.4%, Other - 5.3%. Undecided - 3.3% [Harris: +2.2] | Two-way: Harris - 48.7%, Trump - 46.5%, Other - 1.4%, Undecided - 2.8% [Harris: +2.2]
Line graph showing Harris's increasing lead over Trump in the national polls during August.
Presidential popular vote (based on a graduated weighted average of national polls) Full: Harris - 46.6%, Trump - 44.4%, Other - 5.3%. Undecided - 3.2% [Harris: +2.2] | Two-way: Harris - 48.7%, Trump - 46.5%, Other - 1.4%, Undecided - 2.8% [Harris: +2.2]
Presidential popular vote (based on a graduated weighted average of national polls) Full: Harris - 46.6%, Trump - 44.4%, Other - 5.3%. Undecided - 3.3% [Harris: +2.2] | Two-way: Harris - 48.6%, Trump - 46.6%, Other - 1.4%, Undecided - 2.9% [Harris: +2.0]
Presidential popular vote (based on a graduated weighted average of national polls) Full: Harris - 46.6%, Trump - 44.4%, Other - 5.3%. Undecided - 3.3% [Harris: +2.2] | Two-way: Harris - 48.6%, Trump - 46.6%, Other - 1.4%, Undecided - 2.9% [Harris: +2.0]
Presidential popular vote (based on a graduated weighted average of national polls) Full: Harris - 46.4%, Trump - 44.3%, Other - 5.5%. Undecided - 3.3% [Harris: +2.1] | Two-way: Harris - 48.6%, Trump - 46.7%, Other - 1.2%, Undecided - 2.8% [Harris: +1.9]
Presidential popular vote (based on a graduated weighted average of national polls) Full: Harris - 46.3%, Trump - 44.3%, Other - 5.6%. Undecided - 3.3% [Harris: +2.0] | Two-way: Harris - 48.4%, Trump - 46.6%, Other - 1.3%, Undecided - 2.8% [Harris: +1.8]
Presidential popular vote (based on a graduated weighted average of national polls) Full: Harris - 46.3%, Trump - 44.4%, Other - 5.6%. Undecided - 3.2% [Harris: +1.9] Two-way: Harris - 48.4%, Trump - 46.7%, Other - 1.3%, Undecided - 2.7% [Harris: +1.7]
Presidential popular vote (based on a graduated weighted average of national polls) Full: Harris - 46.2%, Trump - 44.3%, Other - 5.7%. Undecided - 3.2% [Harris: +1.9] Two-way: Harris - 48.4%, Trump - 46.7%, Other - 1.4%, Undecided - 2.6% [Harris: +1.7]
Presidential popular vote (based on a graduated weighted average of national polls) Full: Harris - 46.2%, Trump - 44.3%, Other - 5.7%. Undecided - 3.2% [Harris: +1.9] Two-way: Harris - 48.4%, Trump - 46.8%, Other - 1.3%, Undecided - 2.6% [Harris: +1.7]
Presidential popular vote (based on a graduated weighted average of national polls) Multi-way: Harris - 46.033%, Trump - 44.209%, Kennedy - 4.997%. Other - 4.761% [Harris: +1.825] Two-way: Harris - 48.372%, Trump - 46.765%, Other - 4.863% [Harris: +1.606]
Presidential popular vote (based on a graduated weighted average of national polls) Multi-way: Harris - 46.020%, Trump - 44.241%, Kennedy - 5.102%. Other - 4.638% [Harris: +1.778] Two-way: Harris - 48.402%, Trump - 46.868%, Other - 4.731% [Harris: +1.534]
It has always been planned to turn it in today and that plan was approved of by both the Harris for President Campaign and the DNC. VP Harris and Governor Walz will be on the Alabama ballot.
Presidential popular vote (based on a graduated weighted average of national polls) Multi-way: Harris - 45.791%, Trump - 44.148%, Kennedy - 5.258%. Other - 4.802% [Harris: +1.643] Two-way: Harris - 48.248%, Trump - 46.903%, Other - 4.849% [Harris: +1.344]
Presidential popular vote (based on a graduated weighted average of national polls) Multi-way: Harris - 45.665%, Trump - 44.270%, Kennedy - 5.276%. Other - 4.789% [Harris: +1.395] Two-way: Harris - 48.169%, Trump - 46.990%, Other - 4.952% [Harris: +1.178]
Presidential popular vote (based on a graduated weighted average of national polls) Multi-way: Harris - 45.675%, Trump - 44.274%, Kennedy - 5.195%. Other - 4.856% [Harris: +1.401] Two-way: Harris - 48.149%, Trump - 46.899%, Other - 4.952% [Harris: +1.251]
Presidential popular vote (based on a graduated weighted average of national polls) Multi-way: Harris - 45.670%, Trump - 44.296%, Kennedy - 5.126%. Other - 4.908% [Harris: +1.374] Two-way: Harris - 48.149%, Trump - 46.899%, Other - 4.952% [Harris: +1.251]
Presidential popular vote (based on a graduated weighted average of national polls) Multi-way: Harris - 45.515%, Trump - 44.287%, Kennedy - 5.309%. Other - 4.889% [Harris: +1.229] Two-way: Harris - 48.109%, Trump - 47.022%, Other - 4.870% [Harris: +1.087]
Presidential popular vote (based on a graduated weighted average of national polls) Multi-way: Harris - 45.452%, Trump - 44.237%, Kennedy - 5.394%. Other - 4.917% [Harris: +1.216] Two-way: Harris - 47.979%, Trump - 46.995%, Other - 5.026% [Harris: +0.984]
Presidential popular vote (based on a graduated weighted average of national polls) Multi-way: Harris - 45.424%, Trump - 44.241%, Kennedy - 5.404%. Other - 4.931% [Harris: +1.183] Two-way: Harris - 47.951%, Trump - 47.049%, Other - 5.000% [Harris: +0.903]
Kamala Harris clinched the Democratic nomination for president on Monday, prevailing in a virtual roll call vote a day before she is expected to name her running mate. With the vote, Harris became the first Black woman and Asian American to lead a major US political party’s presidential ticket. The vice president, 59, is expected to ceremoniously accept the nomination at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago later this month, after which she can be certified on state ballots. She was already the presumptive nominee; President Joe Biden endorsed her after ending his reelection bid and no other challenger made the ballot.
Automatic delegates, often called superdelegates, are the party’s highest-profile leaders. They have the role because of the offices they hold (or held), and the group includes former presidents and vice presidents, Democratic governors, members of Congress and party officials. They are not pledged to any candidate and are not allowed to vote on the first ballot at the convention.
Yet, there are avenues by which automatic delegate could find a role in all of this. Part of it is already being witnessed. Some Hill Democrats are calling on the president to withdraw. Others are setting some undefined period of time for the president to either make the case for a path to victory in November and/or to demonstrate that he can aggressively prosecute the case against Trump. [The president acknowledged a similarly small but equally undefined window in which to make a such a case to his supporters in the immediate aftermath of the debate.]
Democratic insiders say they expect a broad majority of party delegates — perhaps as many as 80 percent — to support Mr. Biden’s nomination. Still, there is no guarantee of how delegates will respond to this plan, or if they might buckle under pressure from Democratic lawmakers and donors.
Oh, by the way: Don’t pay much attention to Biden’s claims that he’s staying in no matter what. That’s just basic politics; the only way to play it is to loudly proclaim you’re in no matter what right up to when you aren’t. And the same for those claiming they’ll support him no matter what.
The DNC rule book makes no mention of such an open-convention scenario, offering only this guidance to delegates: “All delegates to the National Convention pledged to a presidential candidate shall in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them.”
(5) You don’t want to hear this, but what if Biden is a disaster? What if he can’t string five words together and gets lost and confused? What if, post-debate, Biden’s numbers crater?
Uncommitted delegates are not necessarily Listen to Michigan delegates ...and more wrapping up the Michigan primary
2024 Republican Delegate allocation: Michigan
2024 Republican Delegate Count Trump 110 Haley 20
Democratic v. Republican Delegate Selection Over Time (2024)
The Committee on Contests shall have the discretion to decline to consider any appeal filed under this rule.