Chris Prosser

@caprosser.com

1887 Followers 562 Following

Political scientist | Co-director British Election Study | Election number crunching for ITV | Trustee McDougall Trust caprosser.com

Meta-analytic changepoint models of the effect of class decile on vote share. In the top panel, points and errors bars are election-specific estimates of the effect of class decile on vote share. Lines and shaded areas are the posterior estimates of the piecewise linear estimate of the evolution of class voting since 1900. The lower panel shows the posterior distribution of the changepoints, which occur in the 1920s (Lab + Con), 1940s and 1990s (Lab), and 2010s (Con).
Marginal effect of class decile on support for Labour, the Conservatives, and Liberals at the constituency level, which shows a moderate working class-Liberal association and middle class-Conservative association between 1885-1900, and then the rapid emergence of a working class-Labour association (and declining Liberal association) from 1900-1924, and a strengthening of the middle class-Conservative association at the same time. From the 1920s-1990s this trend fluctuates but is broadly stable. Starting in the 1990s, the working class-Labour association begins to weaken, while the Conservative class association weakens quite abruptly in 2017.
Smoothed estimates of average feelings towards Conservative and Labour leaders during the 2015, 2017, 2019, and 2024 election campaigns.
A couple of teas or coffees a day could lower risk of dementia, scientists say
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Newspaper headline: Nobel committee unable to reach prize winner who is ‘living his best life’ hiking off grid Fred Ramsdell was among those honoured with a 2025 Nobel Prize in Medicine but might not know because he is somewhere in Idaho and uncontactable
Newspaper headline saying: Enjoying international cuisines makes people more tolerant, UK study finds Frequent and varied eating found to reduce likelihood of perceiving immigrants as ‘cultural or economic threats’
A snippet of the acknowledgements section of a journal article in which the author has thanked the reviewers for their attention to detail, but misspelled 'attendtion'
Newspaper headline saying 'Girls who play after-school sport in UK 50% more likely to later get top jobs, study finds'
Line plot showing percent agreeing that the best way to run the country would be to have a strong leader who does not have to bother with parliament or elections. The data show that Gen Z are the least likely to agree with the statement.