Eric Maugendre about emissions

@data.yt

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Data scientist; researching climate policy. I calculate how to avoid much carbon emissions: http://data.yt Banner is a directed acyclic graph. Avatar shows a white man in a heatwave.

a map of SSIs in Wales
a river across the Desert Poplar Forest, Luntai County, Xinjiang Province The poplar trees live for three thousand years and don’t fall down for three thousand years after they die. When they fall, they still don’t decompose for another three thousand years. Poplars grow steadily in this region due to their unique hardy nature. Luntai County in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region is located along the southern side of Tianshan and along the north of the Tarim Basin. This area is home to the world’s largest, most densely distributed, and best surviving “Tertiary Period Living Fossils.” Luxuriant trees stand shoulder to shoulder with branches interlocked to form the unique scenery.
Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly during the second European heatwave this year. A green circle points at an ocean location 7°C below normal.
The chart shows the 'Temperature Ratchet' effect that El Niño has on global temperatures. Each significant event leaves a residual impact of up to +0.2°C... THE 12-MONTH OUTLOOK The NOAA CPC probabilities indicate a dramatic shift towards El Niño conditions. While June sees an 84% chance of neutral ENSO, July has an 82% chance of El Niño, rising to 98% by August, September, October, November, and December. The CNN/SNU forecast reinforces this, predicting Niño 3.4 anomalies reaching +3.02°C by December 2026. The most dramatic shift is expected in the 3rd quarter of 2026, with strong El Niño conditions becoming highly probable, significantly influencing global weather patterns. from https://4billionyearson.org/climate/symphony
The chart is temperatures plotted against years (from 1940 to 2026). It graphs temperatures averaged over four weeks in European France since 1940 [the month Pétain made his first broadcast to the French people]. A curve in red is made from statistical regression (loess method: smoothness determined with cross-validation) to build a statistical central trend. We may look at the difference between monthly index and trend: The red point represents the average of mid-June to mid-July 2026. Its high position is not absurd: it shows within the distribution of variability around the trend. June 1976 and 2003 were outliers, "black swan" like, events: June and mid-June to mid-July 2003 were 3.7 °C away from the trend, when 2026 June is only 1.7°C. The same kind of extreme period this year would have shown an average at 2°C more. The calculations and graph were made by Denis Mongin‬ ‪@denismongin.bsky.social‬ The above comments were built from his. Below comments come from me. Incidently you may note that 2022 was the year the French President said "Mais qui aurait pu prédire ?" and the monthly index exactly is at the trend curve. Data was mangled by averaging over the month. This has the benefit of showcasing a general enhancement: across the country, day and night. Data was uploaded from weather stations located in Europe. The method was chosen by the national weather service. The method purposely excludes weather stations located in France but not in Europe – such as Guyane, a territory neighbour to the Amazon basin. Florent Malouda was born in Guyane. He is one of the greatest wingers in the history of the Chelsea football club. Malouda represented the France national football team on 80 occasions from 2004 to 2012. Among the players selected for the 2026 FIFA World Cup is Mike Maignan. He plays as the goalkeeper for and captains Serie A club AC Milan. Mike Maignan was born in French Guiana, to a Haitian mother and a Guadeloupean father.
"The model echoed previous work in suggesting that increasing the abundance of soil nitrogen, for example, through fertilizer runoff, decreases the dependence of plants on mycorrhizal fungi and therefore reduces the amount of carbon plants allocate to their microbial counterparts. But in contrast to previous studies, these researchers found that rising soil temperatures had the same effect of reducing the amount of nitrogen and carbon exchanged by fungi and plants. That’s because warmth accelerates the breakdown of organic material, which releases nitrogen. Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, on the other hand, will likely increase the reliance of plants on mycorrhizal fungi by increasing the growth rate of plants and therefore increasing their need for nutrients." From Saima May Sidik (2025), How plant-fungi friendships are changing, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250397
"Significance Soils contain the largest pool of organic carbon near the surface of the Earth and represent a natural carbon sink that helps to buffer against anthropogenic carbon emissions and land-use changes. Despite this, little is known regarding the molecular-level mechanisms of soil organic carbon recalcitrance. In the present study, we explore one of the key phenomena hypothesized to explain the stability of organic carbon in soils, namely mineral-associated organic matter. Using enhanced-sampling molecular dynamics simulations, we show that soil organic matter can be stabilized through a variety of mineral–organic interactions and through the intercession of organic–organic interactions." Thomas R. Underwood, Ian C. Bourg, Kevin M. Rosso (2024). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2413216121
"Representativeness of soil databases (colored dots) superimposed on the global soil bioclimatic multivariate space (gray dots). The multivariate space consists of mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), gross primary productivity (GPP) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) from soil pixels globally. Databases are organized into the three process-relevant categories listed in Fig. 1, namely current stocks and fluxes (green), mechanistic drivers (purple) and future gain/loss potential (pink)." Malhotra, A., von Fromm, S.F., Bond-Lamberty, B. et al. (2026). "Do we have globally representative data to understand soil processes?". Biogeochemistry 169, 23 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10533-025-01301-z
Causal paths of emissions from land use change and fires. There is a feedback loop: emissions make concentrations increase, which forces climate, which makes emissions increase.
Metropolitan France Hexagone
Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly during the second European heatwave this year; pointing at an ocean location 7°C below normal
Spatial patterns of major deforestation-risk commodities (aggregated for 2018–2022) In decreasing order: Brazil, DRC, China. excerpt from Chandrakant Singh & U. Martin Persson (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-026-01305-4
"Stacked WIE-induced warming for (a), SSP1-2.6, (b), SSP2-4.5, and (c), SSP4-6.0, split by permafrost (gray), wildfire (brown), freshwater (pink), and wetlands (green). CH4 contributions are shown with cross-hatching, while CO2 contributions are shown with circular hatching. (d), Total WIE-induced warming for SSP1-2.6 (blue), SSP2-4.5 (orange), and SSP4-6.0 (red), with shading showing ±1 standard deviation, propagated from emission sensitivity uncertainty and climate response uncertainty added in quadrature. All WIE-induced warming is relative to a 2020 baseline." excerpt from Sam Abernethy et al. (2026). https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.15002332/v1
Exhausted people at a public fountain. A white lady in sunglasses and bermudas presents a newspaper frontpage that states "The Climate Issue" A hunched man in bermudas and sandals answers: "It's too hot for realization".
Lines of moderate ascend plus a spillway curve from above 170,000 to above 120,000 Gg CH₄/year. In ten years, methane emissions from agriculture activities are cut in two if bovine stop. Figure shows methane emissions at a slight trough in 2027. The dent in methane emissions is due to a disruption in the delivery of fossil fuels from March 2026 (itself due to the Persian Gulf production being put offline by war). Figure also shows curves of moderate ascend, drifted from current emissions, current activities, technical promises. Each year, the CH₄ production is similar in cases "CH₄ drift", "as usual", "tech potential", "factory cap". You could say that mitigation only goes so far. Bovine stop would be a dramatic policy. It has its contribution fall from full to null over time. The figure shows a spillway curve falling by 60 Tg CH₄/year: emissions would diverge if bovine husbandry was curtailed. After ten years of intervention, methane emissions from all activities if bovine stop would be 80 % of methane emissions from all activities if no intervention. We can see that bovine cessation would bring a throughput abatement of almost 80 Tg/year in ten years. This amount can be represented at 20 % of all methane emissions from activities if they are forecast at 400 Tg.
The four drivers sump up to wealth creation cumulated. They are: • investment, • bank lending, • (in majority) "holding gains", also known as “capital revaluation” • "government deficit spending": putting money into private-sector bank accounts. More explanations at https://wealtheconomics.substack.com/p/where-assets-and-money-come-from
The graph shows that net worth grows much more than savings. Data is of households and nonprofits in the USA from 1965 to 2025. Conclusion: Saving does not explain wealth accumulation. A Federal Reserve graph shows Households and Nonprofit Organizations; Net Saving barely increasing in comparison to Households and Nonprofit Organizations; Net Worth. built from https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HHNOSIA027N#
"Student Hit by Projectile During ‘No Kings’ Protest Lost an Eye, Lawyer Says" a headmast with the typical font used by the NYT
"as any good student of disaster history knows, ideas that are sitting around have a way of becoming law when focusing events open a policy window. There should be an independent analysis available to the public to help people understand where these ideas came from and what they could mean for all of us if implemented. "The FEMA Review Council was not brave enough to recommend abolishing FEMA but there is still a cruelty that runs through their report. This is not a vision for an emergency management system that is more effective, efficient,"
On the top right is a drawing of a fingerprint. "Tracking the human fingerprint. "A living dashboard of the climate system, tracking key indicators to quantify the human impact on climate change. Scroll the narrative, open the full flow chart or" excerpt from https://indicators.climate.copernicus.eu/
The chart shows the 'Temperature Ratchet' effect that El Niño has on global temperatures. Each significant event leaves a residual impact of up to +0.2°C... THE 12-MONTH OUTLOOK The NOAA CPC probabilities indicate a dramatic shift towards El Niño conditions. While June sees an 84% chance of neutral ENSO, July has an 82% chance of El Niño, rising to 98% by August, September, October, November, and December. The CNN/SNU forecast reinforces this, predicting Niño 3.4 anomalies reaching +3.02°C by December 2026. The most dramatic shift is expected in the 3rd quarter of 2026, with strong El Niño conditions becoming highly probable, significantly influencing global weather patterns. from https://4billionyearson.org/climate/symphony
Ocean in Motion around Japan from NASA's View of Earth's Underwater Highways
Map of the Amazon basin with a grid representing the study area. In this grid, each grid cell is represented by a dynamical systems equation (Eq. 2) with two stable equilibrium states (forest and alternative state, see inset). The individual and local scale tipping dynamics can spread via the coupling from the atmospheric moisture recycling network. From https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10456-0
a person takes the microphone at a meeting of the first Conference for the Transition Away from Fossil Fuels, on 28 April 2026
Left to right - Anders Ahlström, Peter Pellitier, Katerina Georgiou, Didac Pascual, and Rob Jackson during fieldwork in Norra Gällsjön. (Image credit - Philippe Roberge)
Ocean stratification impacts on physical and biogeochemical ocean systems. The observed mean stratification trend for 0–2,000 m (upper), meridional trend within 20° S to 20° N (front), and zonal mean trend (right), with icons demonstrating their importance in the global climate system. Ocean stratification change is a pervasive feature and has important impacts on the climate system. Excerpt from Cheng, L., Li, G., Long, SM. et al. Ocean stratification in a warming climate. Nat Rev Earth Environ 6, 637–655 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-025-00715-5
Percentage difference in crop suitability between no AMOC collapse (present day) and the effects of AMOC collapse plus 2.5°C of global warming. Decreases in suitability are represented with red shading, increases with blue. Excerpt from https://www.scri.org.uk/publications/the-security-blind-spot
Precipitation relative changes as a result of an AMOC collapse after global warming of 2.5ºC. With cooling in the Northern Atlantic and warming in the south, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shifts south, accompanied by considerable disruption of precipitation patterns in the tropics. The African and Asian monsoons in the northern hemisphere will weaken, while southern hemisphere monsoons will strengthen. The weaker Asian monsoon will cut rainfall in India in half, with dire consequences for essential agriculture. The maps combine the 2.5ºC climate with the changes predicted after an AMOC collapse. Source: https://doi.org/10.1787/abc5a69e-en
directed acyclic graph of CH₄ from agriculture: ➞ buffaloes ➞ CH₄ ⬅ cattle ⬅
Greenhouse gas emissions go down 20 % in ten years as cattle stop reproduction
Straight lines of moderate ascend plus a spillway curve from about 160,000 to 100,000 Gg CH₄/year. In ten years, methane emissions from activities if bovine stop would be 80 % of methane emissions from activities if no intervention.
four images of the same bubble bursting
You can see the worst quality of forest from Portugal to Finland (via Cork and Kharkiv). forest landscape integrity index (Europe details) excerpt from Grantham et al. (2020) and https://www.forestlandscapeintegrity.com/
DAG: skin cancer is caused by age and sunburn (via moving to Florida)
"CATE plot – interaction between income (quadratic) and treatment." "The effect of the experimental treatment on willingness to reduce consumption is conditional on income. However, that conditionality is non-linear. The effect of the treatment becomes more intense as income increases, achieving a level of statistical significance at higher levels of income." From https://doi.org/10.1080/09644016.2026.2633837
Europe's Annual Solar Installations The graph shows continuous and regular increase of solar installations from 2016 to 2023.
GHG emissions by species-group and region, 2013
Oil flows from the Gulf and Asia: the supply disruption is to reach East Asia this week, Europe next week, the USA in two weeks.
Global fuel-industry CO2 emissions, 1750–1910 from https://www.dannydorling.org/books/SLOWDOWN/
World total population, in years 1–2100 (log scale), from Danny Dorling's book Slowdown We can see big losses in 1500–1600, 1820–1850 and 2020–2100.
Daily Sea Surface Temperature oisst2.1_world2_sst_day extracted from https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=world2
A truncated map from Argentina to Australia via ZA. (Colours are from the Köppen-Geiger classification.)
Graph showing: Global Fossil GHG Emissions: Annual Changes (CCA4 by the Global Carbon Project)
"The Hadley cell, also known as the Hadley circulation, is a global-scale tropical atmospheric circulation that features air rising near the equator, flowing poleward near the tropopause at a height of 12–15 km (7.5–9.3 mi) above the Earth's surface, cooling and descending in the subtropics at around 30 degrees latitude, and then returning equatorward near the surface. It is a thermally direct circulation within the troposphere that emerges due to differences in insolation and heating between the tropics and the subtropics. On a yearly average, the circulation is characterized by a circulation cell on each side of the equator. The Southern Hemisphere Hadley cell is slightly stronger on average than its northern counterpart, extending slightly beyond the equator into the Northern Hemisphere. During the summer and winter months, the Hadley circulation is dominated by a single, cross-equatorial cell with air rising in the summer hemisphere and sinking in the winter hemisphere. Analogous circulations may occur in extraterrestrial atmospheres, such as on Venus and Mars. Global climate is greatly influenced by the structure and behavior of the Hadley circulation. […] The sinking branches of the Hadley cells give rise to the oceanic subtropical ridges and suppress rainfall; many of the Earth's deserts and arid regions are located in the subtropics coincident with the position of the sinking branches. The Hadley circulation is also a key mechanism for the meridional transport of heat, angular momentum and moisture, contributing to the subtropical jet stream, the moist tropics and maintaining a global thermal equilibrium." Wikipedia, CCbySA 4.0
The Thermohaline Circulation - The Great Ocean Conveyor Belt "The oceans are mostly composed of warm salty water near the surface over cold, less salty water in the ocean depths. These two regions don't mix except in certain special areas, which creates a large slow current called the thermohaline circulation." Copied from https://gpm.nasa.gov/education/videos/thermohaline-circulation-great-ocean-conveyor-belt
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percent of land with forests replaced by cattle (2001-2015) Brazil and Paraguay show large areas where cattle replaced more than 13% of tree cover Caution note: "By overlaying recent maps of commodity production areas with maps of historical tree cover loss, this indicator shows where previously forested lands have been replaced by agriculture. Critically, this does not necessarily imply that current-day farms or pastures were directly responsible for past deforestation events. Furthermore, this approach does not allow monitoring of the potential indirect effects of these commodities on deforestation—for example, where expansion of a commodity displaces other forms of farming that contribute to deforestation elsewhere." Source: Elizabeth Goldman, Mikaela Weisse for the World Resources Institute, https://gfr.wri.org/forest-extent-indicators/deforestation-agriculture
Tree cover loss in areas of medium to high erosion risk, 2001-2024. Portugal wins on percentage points!
Annual changes in deforestation footprints show that many developed countries, China and India have obtained net forest gains domestically at the expense of foreign forests Excerpt from Nguyen Tien Hoang & Keiichiro Kanemoto (2021): https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-021-01417-z.epdf?sharing_token=gW0dAxz1m2PjWUhgENZUotRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0MFqPG3Hup0UdoBt27CZ-9Dsh28L5LJnoS7rm_cBtC65hnHQw-G-vOTTxaw2kg3IE8eZXdHj8ATyI4CnLE8PqFzafqCkuaGmY9SCt-ZDdO7c4_bWbPL3pFBjLjFaOaj6KsNBADmCH2lehENx1lWrQEPHQiqCEPUZgrzW2aJjtSdGL2dZspkpk49SxH0sdaByqU%3D&tracking_referrer=www.carbonbrief.org
Since 2021, China coal sends more carbon in the air than NATO equities and Arab states combined. The China coal sector is increasing capacity and already is delivering 12.7 Gt/year. Following the Paris Agreement, countries should aim for minus two percent of carbon-equivalent release, year on year. Instead activities ensure steady growth. The more carbon they already output, the more they grow. Notably, the amount of coal extracted in China not only forces the Greenhouse Effect more than the production from animals. The situation is much worse: China extracts coal at an ever increasing rate. (Since 2016.) From 2020, Xi Jinping had secured coal growth of 1%/year. China mined less coal when it worked on the Paris Agreement (signed in 2015). In other times, since 1999, they produce ever more emissions each year than the previous year. The trend remains at doubling delivery in two decades. The present document is part of the "Greenhouse Forcing" project and is available to re-use if under the CC BY-SA licence. Author: data.yt