Guy McCombe

@guymc.com

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Sports & computers he/him

Box plot visualization showing top 5 Assistant Manager projections for GW31-33. Each gameweek shows 5 teams with their expected points distributions (5-95th and 25-75th percentile ranges plus mean values). GW31 leaders: Brentford and West Ham. GW32 leader: Crystal Palace and Newcastle. GW33 leader: Arsenal. Based on 100k simulations using Elevenify team ratings.
Probability distribution of the difference between Arteta and Slot's assistant manager points for GW26. The expected value is that Arteta outscores slot by 3.90 points. Arteta outscores Slot 72.99% of the time, and Slot outscores Arteta 18.52% of the time. The distribution is mostly a single plateau between 0 and 10 point difference in Arteta's favour.
Comparative box plots of GW26 Assistant Manager projections. Each team's projected points shown with 5-95th percentile (hatched areas) and 25-75th percentile (solid boxes) ranges, plus mean values marked by black lines. This plot is based on team ratings from Elevenify.com. The top 4 are: ARS (8.53), CRY (8.24), LEI (7.93), and SOU (7.24). Liverpool are projected 4.61 and Villa 5.14
A probability distribution graph showing predicted points difference between Emery and Slot in GW25. The graph is split into two coloured sections: pink (51.47% chance Slot outscores) and blue (48.53% chance Emery outscores). Three main peaks show the points difference for each game outcome: one at 1 point difference (drawn game), another at -11 to -19 points (Slot ahead, Liverpool win), and a third at +13 to +19 points (Emery ahead, Villa win). Expected value is -2.62 points in Slot's favor.
A line graph showing probability distributions of Assistant Manager points for GW26, comparing Oliver Glasner (Crystal Palace, pink line) and Ruud van Nistelrooy (Leicester, blue line). Both distributions show similar patterns with three main peaks: a high probability at 0 points, a medium peak around 10-12 points, and another peak at 18-20 points. The mean outcomes are very close: 8.25 points for Glasner and 8.11 for van Nistelrooy. The distributions largely overlap, suggesting similar expected performance patterns. The graph spans from 0 to 24 points on the horizontal axis, with probability percentages on the vertical axis up to 24%.
Probability distribution graph comparing expected Assistant Manager points for GW26 between Mikel Arteta (Arsenal, red line) and Oliver Glasner (Crystal Palace, blue line). Arteta shows a mean of 8.29 points with peaks around 8-12 points, while Glasner averages 8.25 with notable spikes at 0, 8-10, and 18-20 points. Both distributions suggest significant variance in potential outcomes.
Probability distribution curve showing expected points difference between Emery and Slot in GW25. Left side (pink, 61%) shows Slot outscoring Emery, peaking around -10 points. Right side (blue, 38%) shows Emery outscoring Slot, with peaks at +5 and +18 points. Dotted line shows mean at -1.66 points favouring Slot.
Box plot showing projected GW26 points for Premier League Assistant Managers. Arsenal leads with ~9.6 mean points, followed by Newcastle, Bournemouth, and Leicester. (~8.1 points). Arsenal show a very compact range whereas Leicester inter-quartile range ranges from 2 to 18. Display includes mean (black line), 25th-75th percentiles (solid pink boxes), and 5th-95th percentiles (hatched areas). Teams ordered by expected points from left to right.
Box plot showing GW25 point projections for all Premier League Assistant Managers. Liverpool and Villa lead (17.4, 15.8 mean). Other teams cluster 2-13 points. Displays mean (black line), interquartile range (solid pink), and 5-95th percentiles (hatched areas)
Line graph comparing probability distributions of combined GW25+26 points for Emery (AVL, blue) and Slot (LIV, red), based on 250,000 simulations. Emery's distribution shows two peaks around 15 and 22 points with extended tail to 45 points, while Slot's distribution has single peak around 23 points. Dotted lines indicate mean outcomes around 22 and 23 points resp. for both managers.
Line graph comparing DGW25 probabilities for Emery (AVL) and Slot (LIV). Based on 2M simulations. Emery's distribution peaks at ~11 points (mean 15.8), Slot's at ~22 points (mean 17.4), shown by dotted lines.
Table showing how different Everton vs Liverpool match outcomes affect the points difference between Moyes and Slot in DGW24. Ranges from Liverpool wins (-13 to -5 points difference, probabilities 0.004 to 0.158), through a draw (7 points, 0.160), to Everton wins (19 to 26 points difference, probabilities 0.075 to 0.000). Each scenario includes specific score possibilities and their associated probabilities.
Table showing AM24 optimal routes with two scenarios. If Liverpool progress (70%): Liverpool GW24 (14.95), Liverpool GW25 (17.43), Arsenal GW26 (9.62), total 42.00. If Tottenham progress (30%): Liverpool GW24 (14.95), Fulham GW25 (18.32), Arsenal GW26 (9.62), total 42.89.
Table showing expected FPL assistant manager points across GW24-26. Manager data: Emery (£0.8m) - 6.36, 16.06, 6.14, total 28.57; Slot (£1.5m) - 14.92, 17.44, 5.44, total 37.81; Silva (£1.1m) - 6.52, 18.34, 6.16, total 31.03; Postecoglu (£1.1m) - 5.59, 15.26, 7.44, total 28.30; Arteta (£1.5m) - 7.23, 17.45, 9.62, total 34.30; Maresca (£1.5m) - 8.49, 8.67, 5.44, total 22.60. Data based on 125,000 simulations using Elevenify.com team ratings (30/01/25).
A rain covered lens obscures Katie Stengel's header as the commentary plays at least a second delayed. The camera zooms in as the operator wipes the lens with a dirty yellow clothes.