Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · Apr 14 Must-read on China Shock 2, including that it is, to a significant extent, rooted in a local government finances problem. “Officials are scared of missing their GDP targets. Nobody is scared of overcapacity”: www.ft.com/content/7d51...
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Local incentives drive capacity. Positioning data shows crowds chase targets until extremes emerge. SSI z-scores exceed |1.5| 25.4% of the time. Runs average 3.6 bars. Structural pressures persist. 1.9M observations across 12 years. Published findings at fxeresearch.substack.com.