Joseph Cotterill

@jsphctrl.ft.com

8771 Followers 236 Following

Emerging Markets correspondent at the Financial Times; sovereign debt thinkfluencer; I like comics

Digital sketch of DC’s Sandman, emerging from a cloud of his sleeping gas. Gas mask, trilby hat, gloves and cape over a suit are all present and correct.
At a time when overseas equity markets have surged, especially chip stocks (notwithstanding recent volatility), many NRIs may view these deposits as a less attractive option, albeit one with far less volatility. Moreover, while the Indian diaspora is much wealthier than it was in 2013, the wealth is increasingly invested across a range of assets and is potentially less liquid than in 2013. At a time of increased geopolitical uncertainty, any liquidity may come at a premium.
Many like Adam Smith believed that all governments in the world could be reduced to just two-monarchies and republics-and that these were rooted in two basic types of personalities: monarchists, who loved peace and order, and republicans, who loved liberty and independence. Late in his life Jefferson likewise thought that all people by nature could be divided into just two parties. They existed in all countries, he said, whether called tories and whigs, aristocrats and democrats, right and left, ultras and radicals, or serviles and liberals. Jefferson left no doubt where his own sympathies lay: "the sickly, weakly, timid man, fears the people, and is a Tory by nature. The healthy, strong and bold, cherishes them, is formed a Whig by nature." Gordon S. Wood The Radicalism of the American Revolution: Pulitzer Prize Winner #kindlequotes
Patronage was most evident in politics, and there its use was instinctive. When Benjamin Franklin was made deputy postmaster general of North America in 1753, wasted no time in appointing all his friends and relatives to positions under his control. His son became postmaster in Philadelphia. One brother was made postmaster in Boston; when the brother died, Franklin gave the office to his brother's stepson. He made his nephew postmaster in New Haven, appointed the son of a friend postmaster in Charleston, and made another friend in New York controller. A year or so later he promoted his son to be controller and moved the husband of his wife's niece into the vacated Philadelphia position. When this office again became open, he brought another brother down from Newport to fill it. Gordon S. Wood The Radicalism of the American Revolution: Pulitzer Prize Winner #kindlequotes
Since many colonists did not yet believe that their inland trade was very important, they did not believe that paper money (which made such inland trade possible) was very important. And because the paper currency the colonists issued usually could be exchanged at the rate of 133 to 100 pounds sterling (but sometimes through overprinting of the paper the rate could skyrocket to 160 or 180 to 100 pounds sterling), established merchants who imported from abroad and had to pay their bills in sterling were generally anxious to limit the amounts of paper currency in circulation. Since paper money was therefore not readily available, colonists who needed money for their businesses usually had to rely on loans from local moneyed men, thus increasing their sense of personal clientage and dependency. Gordon S. Wood The Radicalism of the American Revolution: Pulitzer Prize Winner #kindlequotes
Congress had made the loudest noise about independence in July 1776, but before it gave voice to its desires some ninety declarations of independence were issued in one form or another from outside Philadelphia between April and July. Nine states acted, several through instructions to delegates; Rhode Island, always different, passed a legislative act; others chose preambles to their constitutions. At least eight counties sent instructions to their provincial conventions or legislatures. Three grand juries drafted presentments for independence. A half dozen or more semi-private or private groups—New York mechanics, for example, and militia battalions in Pennsylvania-declared themselves for independence. More than fifty towns wrote declarations. Robert Middlekauff The Glorious Cause: The American Revolution, 1763-1789 (Oxford History of the United States Book 3) #kindlequotes
Washington repeated the threat just before the Battle of Brooklyn later that year, though he seems not to have posted men behind the lines to carry it out. Daniel Morgan urged Nathanael Greene to place sharpshooters behind the militia, and Greene may have done so at Guilford Court House. No one thought that an entire army could be held in place against its will, and these commands to shoot soldiers who retired without orders were never widely issued. Robert Middlekauff The Glorious Cause: The American Revolution, 1763-1789 (Oxford History of the United States Book 3) #kindlequotes
Paradoxically, of all the Americans who fought, the militiamen best exemplified in themselves and in their behavior the ideals and purposes of the Revolution. They had enjoyed independence, or at least personal liberty, long before it was proclaimed in the Declaration. They instinctively felt their equality with others and in many places insisted upon demonstrating it by choosing their own officers. Their sense of their liberty permitted, even compelled, them to serve only for short enlistments, to leave camp when they liked, to scorn the orders of others—and especially those orders to fight when they preferred to flee. Robert Middlekauff The Glorious Cause: The American Revolution, 1763-1789 (Oxford History of the United States Book 3) #kindlequotes
By 1769 a Boston correspondent of Wilkes commented on "that torrent of corruption which like a general flood, has deluged all' to the eternal disgrace of the British nation," and suggested that the reason the "arbitrary and despotic" English government had "extended their ravages to America" was because they had found the British Isles too restricted an area for the full gratification of their "incessant cravings of luxury, extravagance and dissipation." In 1770 Eliot wrote Hollis: "The Lord have mercy on Great Britain! for among the great, I fear, there is scarce a virtuous character to be found. I should be glad to hope it was better among the other ranks, but the people could not be sold if they did not first sell themselves." Bernard Bailyn The Ideological Origins of the American Revolution: Fiftieth Anniversary Edition #kindlequotes
Table of Taiwan's Economic Growth Forecasts by Major Institutions for 2026. Forecast average is 8.8%. Taiwan's central bank is 9.45%. Taiwanese institutions forecast between 7-10%, Wall Street banks such as Citi, Goldman, and JPMorgan 8-10%.
On Thursday Burnham rowed back from the idea of a direct payout, hours after his spokesperson said he was “committed to looking at” the case for compensation. “He accepts the final decision has been made in relation to financial compensation but has indicated an openness to considering similar schemes on the Greater Manchester model,” the spokesperson said on Thursday. The Greater Manchester model is a reference to non-financial compensation. Cut-price travel tickets could be considered, Burnham’s team added, pointing out that as mayor he has “supported Waspi women in the city-region with early access to concessionary travel, providing some recompense to them within affordability limits”.
Societe Generale pie chart showing Korea is contributing 75% of EPS growth this. Taiwan 12%, China 9%, India 3%, ASEAN 1%
The Quaker c. 1650–1700 · England · inner light Barclay, the Apology You threw over priest, liturgy, and sacrament for a room of people waiting in silence for the Light. You think God speaks now, directly, to anyone who will be still and listen, with no bishop, book, or king in between. Representative figuresGeorge Fox, Margaret Fell, James Nayler
Colour sketch in digital pastels/chalks of an Amazon warrior as depicted on a cracked, ancient fragment of Archaic Greek pottery, as if itself depicted in an illustrated art book. (Figure 14, Unidentified Amazon, kylix fragment, etc…) From the star-spangled details of the warrior’s clothing, you can tell it’s DC’s Wonder Woman.
Since Wheelwright's condemnation, the elders, fearful of the insidious spread of Familist or antinomian views, had started the process of barring from immigration into the colony all who "might be dangerous to the commonwealth," especially since, Winthrop wrote, "it was very probable" that some particularly dangerous people would soon be arriving from what was considered to be the true pit of English Familism, the notorious village of Grindleton, in Yorkshire. Bernard Bailyn The Barbarous Years: The Peopling of British North America: The Conflict of Civilizations, 1600-1675 #kindlequotes
Colour sketch of three figures (L-R): Mole Man, grasping his staff thingie he always has; Doctor Doom, gesticulating in shiny armour and hood; Annihilus in his space age armour.
Colour sketch of Marvel’s Fantastic Four. Mister Fantastic and the Thing are in the foreground - Reed stretches his arms out. The Human Torch roars past in a jet of flame behind them. Behind Johnny, the Invisible Woman reaches up with a force field emanating from a raised hand. She’s translucent. In the background is a ‘four’ shape left behind by the Torch’s trail.
Picturehouse cinema listings for Dog Friendly: Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu and Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu
Colour full-body portrait of Luthen. Rain splashes on his bare head, dark overcoat and military-style boots.
BoFA line chart (x axis: 1996-2026, y axis: relative growth rates rebalanced to 100, going up to 240), starting point each time is three years before peak. Five squiggly lines that shoot up then halt: telcos '99, real estate 05-08, energy 13 to 17, real estate again 19 to 22. Hyperscalers 24 to 26. It's especially vertical.
In Tamil Nadu, India’s southernmost state and home to Apple’s iPhone production in the country, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, a new regional party led by former actor C Joseph Vijay, toppled the ruling party of veteran chief minister MK Stalin. The BJP is a minority partner in an alliance with another regional party, which finished third.
God's agents, the angels, are almost as impressive, as Donne imagines them, in their gift for demolition: "They are Creatures, that have not so much of Body as flesh is, as froth is, as a vapor is, as a sigh is, and yet with a touch they shall molder a rocke into lesse Atomes, then the sand that it stands upon; and a milstone into smaller flower, then it grinds! 79 The utility of producing flour which is actually ground-up millstone is not, of course, something we are expected to enquire into. Donne's angels are performing a pure feat of strength, as pointless, in its way, as tearing up telephone directories, only much more colossal. John Carey John Donne: Life, Mind and Art
Moreover, the Emirates banking sector looks to be a family-owned business. Emirati royals serve as the chairmen of the country’s largest banks, and the royals’ sovereign wealth funds serve as the largest shareholders of the country’s largest banks: First Abu Dhabi Bank and Emirates NBD. There is thus an obvious risk that an unconditional swap line would end up funding a backdoor bailout of the investment vehicles of the Emirati royals. This is a financial and political risk the Federal Reserve cannot afford to take.
Since late last year, Pakistan had been seeking to secure an agreement to roll over at least $2bn of the Emirati loans for two years, but Abu Dhabi rattled Islamabad by moving to monthly extensions in January, according to two people familiar with the matter. The UAE's decision to seek immediate repayment this month surprised the finance ministry in Islamabad, as well as the IMF, according to people familiar with the matter. Abu Dhabi had promised the fund that it would not seek repayment until the end of Pakistan's programme in 2027, a precondition for approving the bailout.
The way the Chinese system works, local officials have every incentive to protect their companies. Value added tax generates nearly 40 per cent of China’s tax revenue, and the central government splits the receipts with the localities where products are made, giving them a direct stake in keeping factories running. Adding local production capacity also creates the growth that officials are largely judged on, and any large-scale lay-off could threaten social stability, Beijing’s overriding priority. “Officials are scared of missing their GDP targets. Nobody is scared of overcapacity,” says another founder, who asks to remain unnamed. “As long as you’re manufacturing, there’s VAT revenue. Whether you sell [a product] or make a profit, that doesn’t really affect them.”
FT Correction: Researcher Brené Brown was misquoted in an interview published on April 6. She described herself as “solidly in my fuck it era” rather than “solidly in my fucking era”.
IIF bar and line chart of non-resident portfolio flows to EM, split into China debt, China equity, EM equity ex China, EM debt ex China, and (line) total. The total drops from $100bn net inflows in January to $20bn in February, to minus $70bn in March.
The German occupation posed an immediate threat to the Papacy. A precedent had been set during the Napoleonic Wars when French troops had taken Pope Pius VI prisoner in February 1798 and transported him to France where he died. The current Pope, Pius XII, feared that the Germans would invade the Vatican, and much of the Vatican's response to events during the German occupation was tempered by the priority to preserve the liberty of the Pope. The fears were not entirely groundless: Hitler and Wolff did seriously discuss plans to occupy the Vatican and to kidnap the Pope. Halik Kochanski Resistance: The Underground War in Europe, 1939-1945 #kindlequotes
Valuations and reopening scenarios On the last trading day before the war, total equity market capitalisation had fallen to below $100 billion, while the median forward P/E for the top 100 companies stood at 2.8x. By the time the stock exchange reopens, the market could react in two very different ways: a sell-off driven by retail withdrawals, similar to what followed the 12-day war in June last year, or a strong rebound accompanied by an extended period of limit-up sessions, as seen during previous bull market rallies in Iran.
BofA box chart: 'ERM in 2030-31, EUR in 2034 likely earliest timeline' 'Potential roadmap for Hungary's EUR adoption, based on experience of other CEE countries' 1 Parliamentary elections April 2026 2 EUR officially in government's strategy Fall 2026 3 Parliamentary elections April 2030 4 ERM II Entry 4Q 2030 1H 2031 5 Pre-EUR Convergence Report 2Q 2033 6 EUR Adoption Jan 2034 7 Parliamentary elections April 2034
Durer’s 1516 etching of The Abduction on a Unicorn, which depicts a man abducting a woman on a muscular, terrifying unicorn against a savage stormy sky.
Denmark and several other European countries including France, Germany and the Nordics sent troops to Greenland in January under cover of a planned military exercise, which officials in Copenhagen said had notified to the US Defence Department. But the real reason, according to the DR report, was to prepare for a possible US attack and to ensure that any takeover of Greenland would have to be hostile. "The French were incredibly helpful," a second European official said. "They understood straight away that we needed a plan."
Allister Heath fake headline If we surrender to the Telegraph's latest valuation of 575 million quid, we will lose our country forever
Analysts said it was not clear that destroying the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a 180,000-strong force, was possible. And Israeli officials have not said exactly how they plan to lay the groundwork for the regime's overthrow, or what might come after that, though they have suggested covert operations may be involved. Summarising the Israeli government's position, Citrinowicz said: "If we can have a coup, great. If we can have people on the streets, great. If we can have a civil war, great. Israel couldn't care less about the future... [or] the stability of Iran. "That is a point of difference between us and the US. I think [Washington is] are more concerned about nation-building and threats to their regional partners," he added.
In the past year, hedge funds had piled back into the local debt markets of Egypt and Turkey in particular, after these countries offered double-digit interest rates to support weakened currencies. As conflict over Iran grew closer in recent weeks, some investors exited these trades, with foreign holdings of Egyptian debt falling by $2bn to $30bn according to Citigroup. But others bought protection to stay in the trade on the bet that the conflict would not last. “In the last few days, there had been hedges put on in Turkey, Egypt and some of the more crowded positions in local markets,” including through credit default swaps and forward bets on currencies, one investor said. There was no sign yet of “serious outflows” from EM trades as a whole, they added. “Things haven’t reached that panic event. It’s not that kind of liquidity event where those lines are cut and there’s a flight to safe havens. That is the really painful event for emerging markets historically, and we’re just not there yet.”
The regime insider said the retaliation, including against targets such as Dubai hotels, "makes any location hosting Americans unsafe and no one will want to stay there" He added that Iran's Gulf oil-rich neighbours would all now "face heightened investment risk" "Investors will tell them: you are close to Iran, and at any moment a missile could land in the middle of your country," the insider said.
A number of monarchs had raised revenue using the prerogative by imposing duties on overseas trade (impositions), or by creating monopolies over particular trades and raising fines for breaches of the monopolies. To the extent that these were measures for the regulation of trade these were clearly matters for the prerogative. To the extent that they were revenue devices they threatened the role of Parliament in authorizing taxation, and the common law in protecting the property of the subject. There was then a crucial ambiguity as to whether the impositions should be seen as illegal taxes, or revenues arising from the legitimate use of the prerogative to regulate international trade-an area beyond the common law. Michael Braddick God's Fury, England's Fire: A New History of the English Civil Wars #kindlequotes
That extensive advertising is possible because Omaze is regulated differently from most charity lotteries, which are restricted in the value of the prizes they can offer and the extent of proceeds they can reinvest in operations, for example on marketing. In the UK, so-called free prize draws such as Omaze can operate for commercial gain without a gambling licence so long as they offer a free entry route alongside their paid ones. Like most of its peers, Omaze accepts these free entries by post. They are limited to one entry per postcard or envelope and cannot be hand-delivered. Factoring in postage, customers ultimately pay more for each “free” entry than they would to buy an entry online.
While suffering for his faith, Penn was treated with deference by his persecutors, and affection by many of his jailors. He maintained warm personal relations with Charles II and the future James II. From his cell he courted and won the hand of Gulielma Springett, a high-born lady who was celebrated for Quaker piety and for her blonde beauty (Penn's rivals included London's leading Restoration rakes). Her many connections gave Penn much influence in English society and helped him secure the charter of Pennsylvania. After her death, Penn married Hannah Callowhill, a rich Bristol heiress who brought him an income of £ 3000 a year—enough to keep his colony afloat. David Hackett Fischer Albion's Seed: Four British Folkways in America (America: a cultural history Book 1) #kindlequotes
BoFA line chart on cumulative flows into EEMEA debt and equity since January 2014, based on EPFR fund data
Other subterfuges were also resorted to. A slave was rarely called a slave in the American south by his master. Slaves were referred to as "my people," "my hands," "my workers," almost anything but "my slaves." They were made to dress like English farm workers, to play English folk games, to speak an English country dialect, and to observe the ordinary rituals of English life in a charade that Virginia planters organized with great care. David Hackett Fischer Albion's Seed: Four British Folkways in America (America: a cultural history Book 1) #kindlequotes
"We are going to put huge emphasis on scoops," Weiss said. "Not scoops that expire minutes later. But investigative scoops. And, crucially, scoops of ideas. Scoops of explanation. This is where we can soar, and where we'll be investing.
"The preferences across fiscal policy, monetary policy, trade policy and exchange rate outcomes are incompatible with each other," said Karthik Sankaran, senior research fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and an FX veteran, pointing to a recipe for a weaker dollar. "We have been in environments before where the dollar traded 'EM-esque' - where [US] bond yields went up, and the dollar went down."
The Puritans of Massachusetts created one of the more austere food ways in the Western world. For three centuries, New England families gave thanks to their Calvinist God for cold baked beans and stale brown bread, while lobsters abounded in the waters of Massachusetts Bay and succulent gamebirds orbited slowly overhead. Rarely does history supply so strong a proof of the power of faith. David Hackett Fischer Albion's Seed: Four British Folkways in America (America: a cultural history Book 1) #kindlequotes
Arturo Sosa, a retiree shopping for bread at a local bakery on Saturday afternoon, said that the US now "has what it wanted" with Maduro out of the picture, and that "Delcy should take over and call elections" Most shops remained closed throughout the day; a few people ventured outside to jog or run errands, while others stayed glued to their screens for updates over what had happened and who was running their country. Any celebrations by the Maduro regime's many critics took place at home, likely to have been deterred by the visible security presence on the streets.
Stock chart of the 5,881% YTD gain in RRP Semiconductor Limited. It's smoothly, absurdly, parabolic before ticking down since November.
Excerpt from South African Dept of Home Affairs statement: The operation reinforces Home Affairs' commitment to enforcing the rule of law without fear or favour, as no person or entity is above these laws. It also showcases the commitment that South Africa shares with the United States to combating illegal immigration and visa abuse in all its forms. The presence of foreign officials apparently coordinating with undocumented workers naturally raises serious questions about intent and diplomatic protocol. The Department of International Relations and Cooperation has initiated formal diplomatic engagements with both the United States and Kenya to resolve this matter.
Chris Lehane, OpenAI's chief global affairs officer, likened OpenAI for Countries to the creation of the modern monetary system. "We are in a Bretton Woods moment," said Lehane. "In 1944, democratic nations came together to create a financial system based on democratic values. We're now at a similar moment with the laying of the Al rails."
truth. "That's a thought," I said. The door-bell rang before I could go on. Mimi let the doctor in - he was a roly-poly elderly man with a stoop and a waddle - and took him in to Gilbert. I opened the table-drawer again and looked at the bonds, Postal Telegraph & Cable ss, Sao Paulo City 6½s, American Type Founders 6s, Certain-teed Products s½s, Upper Austria 6½s, United Drugs 5S, Philippine Railway 4s, Tokio Electric Lighting 6s, about sixty thousand dollars at face value, I judged, and - guessing - between a quarter and a third of that at the market. When the door-bell rang I shut the drawer and let Macaulay in. He looked tired. He sat down without taking off his overcoat and said: "Well, tell me the worst. What was he up to here?"
BofA bar chart of changes in gold reserves of countries across EEMEA from 2023 to 2025, as well as changes in reserve assets as a % of GDP “Exhibit 16: Lebanon is the only EEMEA country where gold holdings now exceed 100% of GDP due to GDP collapse and gold rally”
Alice Wang Specialising in visual arts in her psychology degree at the esteemed Columbia University, Alice Wang is as busy as they come – she's also involved in environmental initiatives and the faculty's hip-hop group. She attended Le Bal this year wearing a stunning gown by Vera Wang, along with her parents: Chuanfu Wang, founder of Chinese manufacturing behemoth BYD, and Stella Li, the CEO of BYD Americas. Escorting this scion of industry was the notably eligible Baron Heinrich von Frankenstein (who, thankfully, bears no resemblance to the monster who shares his name…)
Atsu, the protagonist of Ghost of Yotei, framed against a starry sky in her really rad bounty hunter armour and mask.
Table 1: Minimum requirements that an application for settlement must meet to qualify Pillar Requirements Suitability The applicant must meet suitability requirements for an application, as set out in Part Suitability of the Immigration Rules) – for example, not having a criminal conviction. The applicant has no current litigation, NHS, tax or other government debt. Integration The applicant must be able to evidence that they meet English language requirements, which will be at B2 level under the Common European Framework of Reference for Languages. The applicant must be able to evidence that they have passed the Life in the UK test. Contribution Applicant has contributed to the Exchequer by having annual earnings above £12,570 for a minimum of 3 to 5 years (subject to consultation), in line with the current thresholds for paying income tax and National Insurance Contributions (NICs), or an alternative amount of income.
WeBuyCars estimates for the South African vehicle market FY2024 vs FY2025, from a presentation. Line chart to the left suggests new Chinese vehicle registrations are growing much faster YoY in this period than overall new or pre-owned registrations, in some months more than 90% or 100%. Bar chart to the right - 'Chinese vehicle sales as a portion of total new vehicle sales' suggests these sales were still less than 9,000 of nearly 54,000 in total in September, but have grown strongly every month since April last year.
These results were delivered in a challenging trading environment, particularly in the second half of the year, characterised by low GDP growth, pressure on consumer affordability, lower levels of consumer confidence and lower bank approval rates. WeBuyCars experienced margin pressure resulting from structural shifts within the South African automotive industry. The continued strength of the new vehicle market, together with the rapid rise of competitively priced Chinese brands, including GWM, Chery, Omoda, Jaecoo, Jetour, MG, JAC and BAIC, has significantly influenced consumer behaviour and heightened competition. These brands have captured notable market share through attractive pricing and compelling new-vehicle offerings. To maintain liquidity and ensure healthy inventory turns, WeBuyCars adjusted selling prices on vehicles competing within these price brackets. This proactive measure placed short-term pressure on margins during the second half of the year.