Patrick Boueri @patrickboueri.com · May 29 So I've been digging into bluesky retention data to see what is preventing growth of the ecosystem. Using likes/posts/follows you can see who is active or dormant on ATProto. The headline is that only 5% of users are retained at 28d and 10% of current users churn. That's not pretty
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Churn = 30d of inactivity Activity = any observable action There are a lot of sporadic users that are resurrected i should do a deep dive into who they are and what they do
There IS a committed base of highly active users which is why the place feels so lively -- but I personally would love to see more growth because it just makes everything else easier. I know I know -- growth for growths sake is dumb. But if the network grows we have more choices and paths ahead
I mean that's also social media for you. 1-9-90 and all that. Makes it hard to know for sure if people are leaving via observation of activity when the vast majority of people who engage with the platform are expected to do so passively.
so this is what getting nerdsniped feels like 😢 Great work, some of my analysis (mostly focused on last 60days + the plc) corroborates the main point about the earlier cohorts (pre 2025) being reliably active but later ones less so. I’ll get around to posting it so we can check notes