R. Saravanan

@sarava.net

3299 Followers 665 Following

Climate scientist, Professor & Dept Head at Texas A&M University. Book: ClimateDemon.com, https://Metamodel.blog, https://github.com/mitotic, More: https://r.saravanan.us Check out my curating Bluesky client https://Skylimit.dev: 2.7, #climate, #skylimit,

The Texas A&M Department of Atmospheric Sciences will be marking the 60th anniversary of its establishment at the 7pm Tuesday (Jan. 27) reception during the AMS Annual Meeting in Hilton Americas-Houston.
Tipping Points at World's End 1.5C, 2C, 2030, 2050
Property Detail Look up any building in the US to assess how climate risk will impact the building’s value, income, and credit risk now and over the next 30 years. Our high-resolution, physics-based models accurately quantify risk to every building in the US.
Worlds in the Making, Svante Arrhenius
Duck Season Rabbit Season text. Bugs Bunny, Daffy Duck images
Dark Stillness: Predicting Solar and Wind Power Droughts, R. Saravanan, https://r.saravanan.us
Predictive skill in the imperfect model world and prediction of global mean surface temperature evolution conditional on time series of annual global mean temperatures from version 5 of the UK Met Office Hadley Centre/Climatic Research Unit (HadCRUT) data set HadCRUT5. (B) historical ob- servations from 1901 to 2023, unconstrained cMiP6 projections, and future predictions. the left panel shows time series, with the predictions in color and unconstrained projections in gray, with their corresponding 5th to 95th percentile ranges shaded. the right panels display warming of the future periods with 20- and 50-year lead time, with mean changes shown as dots and 5th to 95th percentile ranges represented by error bars. the warming relative to the preindustrial period can be determined by applying an offset between 1994–2023 and 1851–1900, which is estimated to be approximately 0.95 [0.89, 1.02] °c based on the hadcRUt5 dataset.
To cook pot barley in an Instant Pot (also called hulled barley, which retains more of the bran than pearled barley), follow these guidelines: Instant Pot Cooking Time for Pot Barley Pressure cook time: 20–25 minutes at High Pressure Natural release: 15 minutes, then release any remaining pressure manually Water-to-Barley Ratio Use 2.5 to 3 cups of water per 1 cup of pot barley Optional Additions Add salt, broth, or aromatics (like bay leaf, garlic, or onion) for extra flavor.
Illustration Global-Average Land, which looks like the Disney Land Magic Kingdom, with streets like Geoengineering Ave and signposts for Tipping Points
CMI6 Global SST plot from the blog post
CONCLUSIONS El Niño does not generally cause heatwaves everywhere (unlike AGW) Record annual high in GMST does not necessarily mean: - a physical “tipping” threshold is crossed - or that AGW is “accelerating”, i.e., faster than predicted by CMIP models GMST statistically conflates long-term AGW with short-term natural modes (like ENSO, PDO, AMO, …) with different spatial patterns - This can distort any economic impact analysis based on GMST Better to use an index that isolates the signal of interest (AGW, AMOC, …) - A spatial pattern approach, like LFCA, has some advantages over temporal smoothing (no edge effects, …)
Headline: Patient’s Total Cholesterol Exceeds Dangerous Threshold of 200. Now What?
Image of Sisyphus rolling a boulder with the text "Don't use GMST to describe AGW"
MODERN EQUIVALENT? “The CEO has no idea if climate risk assessments are any good. However, he needs them to satisfy Fed/Treasury/SEC mandates.”
Kenneth Arrow 1972 Economics Nobel Laureate: While serving in the Army Air Forces during World War II, Arrow was tasked with producing long-range weather forecasts. He and his colleagues soon realized that the prevailing techniques were no more accurate than random guessing. His team brought this to the attention of his supervisors... “The commanding general is well aware that the forecasts are no good,” he was told. “However, he needs them for planning purposes.”
IPCC figure showing monotonically increasing global surface temperature projections for different scenarios
Book cover for Douglas Adam's Restaurant at the End of the Universe
Skew T plot
Cone of uncertainty for Hurricane Dorian with a doodle on top
xkcd illustration of climate change measured in ice age units
Texas now has more utility-scale solar than California
Global temperature change from IPCC AR6 showing steady warming with increasing CO2 for different scenarios