R. Saravanan @sarava.net · Sep 1 Current climate models, with non-eddy resolving oceans, don't simulate AMOC well. The evidence is there in plain sight in the main figure of last week's paper on AMOC collapse. Note the spread in strength of "current" AMOC which is larger than the "collapse" amount for some models! 1/
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It'll be a while before we can make more credible simulations of AMOC (or compute probabilities), perhaps longer than the time we have to act to reduce emissions. The more direct heating impacts of emissions are much more robustly predicted. That's why I worry more about the plain vanilla warming 2/