Devolved Election Projections

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A range of simple tools to create your own results of the Scottish, Welsh, Northern Irish and London Elections 🗳️ https://devolvedelections.co.uk/ Donate: https://buymeacoffee.com/devolvedelections

Belfast East Green Alliance DUP UUP Alliance Belfast North Sinn FĂ©in Sinn FĂ©in DUP Alliance SDLP Belfast South & Mid Down Green DUP Alliance SDLP Sinn FĂ©in Belfast West Sinn FĂ©in Sinn FĂ©in Sinn FĂ©in PBP DUP East Antrim UUP DUP Alliance UUP TUV East Londonderry Sinn FĂ©in DUP DUP SDLP Alliance Fermanagh & South Tyrone UUP DUP Sinn FĂ©in Sinn FĂ©in SDLP Foyle SDLP Sinn FĂ©in SDLP Sinn FĂ©in UUP Lagan Valley UUP Alliance DUP Alliance TUV Mid Ulster Sinn FĂ©in DUP Sinn FĂ©in Sinn FĂ©in SDLP Newry & Armagh SDLP Sinn FĂ©in Sinn FĂ©in DUP TUV North Antrim TUV Sinn FĂ©in UUP DUP DUP North Down UUP Alliance Green DUP DUP South Antrim UUP Alliance DUP TUV Sinn FĂ©in South Down Sinn FĂ©in SDLP DUP Sinn FĂ©in Alliance Strangford TUV Alliance DUP UUP DUP Upper Bann DUP UUP Sinn FĂ©in Alliance TUV West Tyrone Sinn FĂ©in SDLP Sinn FĂ©in DUP TUV
Table with above results
Map of NI coloured by largest party by votes.
Labour 11 Greens 5 Conservatives 4 Reform 3 Liberal Democrats 2
Winners map. Lib Dem south west, Tory North East, Reform South West, Labour rest.
Convergent Opinions: Lab 49, Reform 37 More in Common: Lab 45, Reform 40 Opinium: Lab 46, Reform 41 Survation: Lab 49, Reform 39 Survation: Lab 43, Reform 40
SF 4 ministries, DUP 3, Alliance, UUP and SDLP all 1
Map of Northern Ireland, coloured by largest party
North Antrim TUV Sinn FĂ©in UUP DUP Alliance East Antrim UUP DUP UUP Alliance Alliance South Antrim Alliance UUP Sinn FĂ©in DUP TUV Belfast North Sinn FĂ©in Sinn FĂ©in DUP Alliance Green Belfast West Sinn FĂ©in Sinn FĂ©in Sinn FĂ©in Sinn FĂ©in DUP Belfast South & Mid Down Green DUP Alliance SDLP Sinn FĂ©in Belfast East Green Alliance DUP UUP Alliance North Down Green Alliance UUP DUP DUP Strangford DUP Alliance UUP TUV Alliance Lagan Valley DUP UUP Alliance DUP Alliance Upper Bann DUP UUP Alliance Sinn FĂ©in TUV South Down Sinn FĂ©in SDLP DUP Sinn FĂ©in Alliance Newry & Armagh SDLP Sinn FĂ©in Sinn FĂ©in DUP TUV Fermanagh & South Tyrone UUP DUP Sinn FĂ©in Sinn FĂ©in SDLP West Tyrone Sinn FĂ©in DUP SDLP Sinn FĂ©in Sinn FĂ©in Mid Ulster Sinn FĂ©in DUP Sinn FĂ©in Sinn FĂ©in SDLP Foyle Sinn FĂ©in SDLP Sinn FĂ©in SDLP UUP East Londonderry Sinn FĂ©in DUP SDLP UUP DUP
Table of above results
SNP swing in Orkney -12.9, LD +7.8 SNP swing in Shetland +5.6, LD -14.3
SNP 1, Lib 1, others 0.
Results Page - Screenshot (no results)
For full seat by seat options see: https://devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
Galloway & West Dumfires, Edinburgh Central, Dumfriesshire, Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch, Banffshire & Buchan Coast, Aberdeenshire West, Edinburgh Northen, Argyll & Bute, Glasgow Kelvin & Maryhill, Ettrick, Roxburgh and berwickshire, East Lothiana nd Lammermuirs, Aberdeen Central
Reform's chance of being largest is 50.2%, they have a 49.8% of coming second. Plaid Cymru's chance of being largest is 49.8%, they have a 50.2% of coming second.
Constituency Seat 1 Seat 2 Seat 3 Seat 4 Seat 5 Seat 6 Afan Ogwr Rhondda Reform Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru Labour Reform Bangor Conwy Môn Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni Plaid Cymru Reform Labour Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd Reform Plaid Cymru Liberal Democrats Reform Greens Labour Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf Plaid Cymru Greens Reform Labour Liberal Democrats Plaid Cymru Caerdydd Penarth Plaid Cymru Reform Greens Labour Plaid Cymru Reform Casnewydd Islwyn Reform Plaid Cymru Labour Greens Conservatives Reform Ceredigion Penfro Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru Liberal Democrats Plaid Cymru Reform Clwyd Reform Conservatives Plaid Cymru Labour Reform Conservatives Fflint Wrecsam Reform Plaid Cymru Reform Labour Conservatives Plaid Cymru Gwynedd Maldwyn Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru Gŵyr Abertawe Reform Plaid Cymru Reform Labour Greens Reform Pen-y-Bont Bro Morgannwg Reform Plaid Cymru Reform Labour Conservatives Reform Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr Reform Plaid Cymru Reform Labour Plaid Cymru Reform Sir Fynwy Torfaen Reform Reform Labour Conservatives Plaid Cymru Greens Sir Gaerfyrddin Plaid Cymru Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru Labour Plaid Cymru
Plaid 34 + Lab 13 + Green 6 = 53. Majority of 5.
Table of above results
SNP 60 + Green 12 = 72. 8 seat majority.
Central and Lothians West - 3 Lab, 1 Con, 1 Green, 2 Reform Edinburgh and Lothians East - 1 Lab, 1 Con, 1 LD, 3 Green, 2 Reform Glasgow - 3 Lab, 2 Green, 2 Reform Highlands and Islands - 1 Lab, 2 Con, 2 Green, 2 Reform Mid Scotland and Fife - 2 Lab, 1 Con, 1 LD, 1 Green, 2 Reform North East Scotland - 1 Lab, 1 Con, 1 LD, 1 Green, 3 Reform South Scotland - 2 Lab, 1 Con, 1 Green, 3 Reform West Scotland - 2 Lab, 1 Con, 1 LD, 1 Green, 2 Reform
Edinburgh Central Greens 24.8 Labour 24.3 SNP 23.4
Table of above results
Random Regional Variation Number 30 Plaid 42 Reform 36 Labour 9 Green 4 Lib Dem 3 Tory 2
Plaid 37 + Lab 12 = 37. Majority of 1
Constituency Seat 1 Seat 2 Seat 3 Seat 4 Seat 5 Seat 6 Afan Ogwr Rhondda Reform Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru Reform Labour Bangor Conwy Môn Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru Labour Reform Plaid Cymru Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd Reform Plaid Cymru Liberal Democrats Reform Plaid Cymru Greens Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf Plaid Cymru Reform Greens Liberal Democrats Labour Plaid Cymru Caerdydd Penarth Plaid Cymru Reform Greens Plaid Cymru Labour Reform Casnewydd Islwyn Plaid Cymru Reform Labour Greens Conservatives Plaid Cymru Ceredigion Penfro Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru Liberal Democrats Plaid Cymru Reform Clwyd Reform Conservatives Plaid Cymru Reform Labour Reform Fflint Wrecsam Reform Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru Reform Labour Gwynedd Maldwyn Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru Gŵyr Abertawe Reform Plaid Cymru Reform Reform Plaid Cymru Labour Pen-y-Bont Bro Morgannwg Reform Plaid Cymru Reform Labour Reform Conservatives Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr Reform Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru Labour Reform Sir Fynwy Torfaen Reform Reform Plaid Cymru Conservatives Labour Reform Sir Gaerfyrddin Plaid Cymru Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru Plaid Cymru Labour
Table of above results
Central and Lothians West - 2 Lab, 1 Con, 1 Green, 3 Reform Edinburgh and Lothians East - 1 Lab, 1 Con, 1 LD, 2 Green, 2 Reform Glasgow - 3 Lab, 1 Green, 3 Reform Highlands and Islands - 1 SNP, 1 Lab, 2 Con, 1 Green, 2 Reform Mid Scotland and Fife - 1 Lab, 1 Con, 1 LD, 1 Green, 3 Reform North East Scotland - 1 Lab, 1 Con, 1 LD, 1 Green, 3 Reform South Scotland - 2 Lab, 1 LD, 1 Green, 3 Reform West Scotland - 2 Lab, 1 LD, 1 Green, 3 Reform
Strathkelvin & Bearsden SNP 32.5 Lib Dem 31.1
56 SNP constituecy seats 1 Reform 8 Lib Dems 2 Lab 2 Green 4 Conservatives
Table of results
Constituency polling SNP 37.5 Lab 18.6 Reform 18 Con 11.7 LD 10.5 Green 1.6
Rutherglen & Cambusland Lab 37.1 SNP 35.7
Central and Lothians West - 3 Lab, 1 Con, 1 Green, 2 Reform Edinburgh and Lothians East - 1 Con, 1 LD, 3 Green, 2 Reform Glasgow - 2 Lab, 1 Con, 2 Green, 2 Reform Highlands and Islands - 1 SNP, 1 Lab, 2 Con, 1 Green, 2 Reform Mid Scotland and Fife - 2 Lab, 1 Con, 1 LD, 1 Green, 2 Reform North East Scotland - 1 Lab, 2 Con, 1 LD, 1 Green, 2 Reform South Scotland - 2 Lab, 1 LD, 1 Con, 1 Green, 3 Reform West Scotland - 2 Lab, 1 Con, 1 LD, 1 Green, 2 Reform
Map of Southern Scotland.
Table of above results
Party JLP MiC YG YG2 Labour 18.9 24.4 18 17 Conservatives 14.6 16.5 11 12 Plaid Cymru 21 15.1 23 20 Liberal Democrats 6.3 12 5 6 Greens 12 8 12 11 Reform 24.2 22.5 26 32 Other 2.9 1.5 4 3
Party FoN JLP* MiC YG SNP 67 67 56 67 Labour 14 19 17 15 Conservatives 12 10 12 7 Liberal Democrats 8 9 14 9 Greens 13 7 8 11 Reform 15 17 22 20
Top 5 most likely seat outcomes for each constituency (photo 1 of 2). More info: https://devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
Afan Ogwr Rhondda Reform Plaid Cymru Reform Labour Plaid Cymru Reform Bangor Conwy Môn Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni Plaid Cymru Reform Labour Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd Reform Plaid Cymru Liberal Democrats Reform Greens Labour Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf Greens Plaid Cymru Reform Labour Liberal Democrats Greens Caerdydd Penarth Plaid Cymru Reform Greens Labour Plaid Cymru Reform Casnewydd Islwyn Reform Labour Plaid Cymru Greens Conservatives Reform Ceredigion Penfro Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru Liberal Democrats Plaid Cymru Reform Clwyd Reform Conservatives Labour Plaid Cymru Reform Conservatives Fflint Wrecsam Reform Plaid Cymru Reform Labour Conservatives Greens Gwynedd Maldwyn Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru Gŵyr Abertawe Reform Plaid Cymru Reform Labour Greens Reform Pen-y-Bont Bro Morgannwg Reform Plaid Cymru Labour Reform Conservatives Reform Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr Reform Plaid Cymru Labour Reform Plaid Cymru Reform Sir Fynwy Torfaen Reform Reform Labour Conservatives Plaid Cymru Greens Sir Gaerfyrddin Plaid Cymru Plaid Cymru Reform Labour Plaid Cymru Plaid Cymru
Plaid 32 + Labour 13 + Green 8 = 53, Majority of 5
Table of above results
Beeswarm plot, centred around: SNP 60 Reform 20 Labour 17 Green 12 Con 11 LD 10
Galloway and West Dumfries, Ref, Con, SNP, Coin Flip: Reform edge Edinburgh Central, SNP, Green, Lab, Coin Flip: SNP edge Argyll and Bute, SNP, LD, Coin Flip: SNP edge Dumfriesshire, Con, SNP, Ref, Coin Flip: Conservatives edge Glasgow Kelvin and Maryhill, SNP, Green, Coin Flip: SNP edge Aberdeenshire West, SNP, Ref, Con, Coin Flip: SNP edge Banffshire and Buchan Coast, Ref SNP, Coin Flip: Reform edge Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire Con, Ref, SNP, Tilt Conservatives East Lothian Coast and Lammermuirs, SNP, Labour, Tilt SNP Aberdeen Central, SNP Refrom, Tilt SNP
Map of Northern Scotland - SNP mostly, Lib Dem in far North, Reform in Banff & Buchan Coast
Central & Lothians West : 3 Lab, 1 Con, 1 Green, 2 Reform Edinburgh & Lothians East: 1 Lab, 1 Con, 1 Lib Dem, 2 Green, 2 Reform Glasgow: 3 Lab, 2 Green, 2 Reform H & I: 1 SNP, 1 Lab, 2 Con, 1 Green, 2 Reform North East Scotland : 1 Lab, 2 Con, 1 LD, 1 Green, 2 Reform South Scotland: 2 Lab, 1 Con, 1 Green, 3 Reform West Scotland: 2 Lab, 1 Con, 1LD, 1 Green, 2 Reform
Table of above results
Constituency Seat 1 Seat 2 Seat 3 Seat 4 Seat 5 Seat 6 Afan Ogwr Rhondda Reform Plaid Cymru Reform Labour Plaid Cymru Reform Bangor Conwy Môn Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru Plaid Cymru Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni Plaid Cymru Reform Labour Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd Reform Plaid Cymru Reform Greens Labour Liberal Democrats Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf Reform Greens Plaid Cymru Labour Reform Greens Caerdydd Penarth Plaid Cymru Reform Greens Labour Plaid Cymru Reform Casnewydd Islwyn Reform Labour Plaid Cymru Greens Conservatives Reform Ceredigion Penfro Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru Plaid Cymru Reform Liberal Democrats Clwyd Reform Conservatives Reform Labour Plaid Cymru Reform Fflint Wrecsam Reform Plaid Cymru Reform Labour Greens Reform Gwynedd Maldwyn Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru Plaid Cymru Gŵyr Abertawe Reform Plaid Cymru Reform Labour Greens Reform Pen-y-Bont Bro Morgannwg Reform Plaid Cymru Reform Labour Conservatives Reform Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr Reform Plaid Cymru Reform Labour Plaid Cymru Reform Sir Fynwy Torfaen Reform Reform Labour Conservatives Plaid Cymru Greens Sir Gaerfyrddin Plaid Cymru Reform Plaid Cymru Plaid Cymru Labour Reform
Mean number of seats: Reform 33 Plaid 32 Labour 14 Green 8 Consevative 6 Lib Dem 3
Plaid 31 + Lab 13 + Green 8 = 52. A majority of 4